Lightning Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 16 minutes ago, mnchaserguy said: 3.5-4” here so far. Definitely low compared to the 6-8” forecast by MPX. Looks like a foot tonight into tomorrow is a solid better. Probably unlikely we hit 18” at this point. Big storm but significantly lower than what was shown by the models for several days. Sadly this has been the trend with the models (I.e. show historic storms then go down to reality). Your getting an awesome storm but the historic model runs make you feel robbed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 9 minutes ago, Lightning said: I love the last sentence the best: Unfortunately these three points remain fairly nebulous and really won`t be known until the event actually begins. The new guy at GRR provides some entertaining AFDs for sure. While there remains questions where the only answers lie in some undiscovered country, there will remain impactful precipitation through the daytime and through at least the first half of Wednesday night. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaserguy Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 4.1” at the airport as of 6am. Definitely the lower side of guidance but they were calling for 4-8” in this first wave, so not a bust. Really strong banding overnight in the south metro. Shame models are showing a substantial drying trend but we should have know those crazy totals from a couple days ago were unrealistic. I believe the record February snowfall at MSP is only in the 13-14” range so the monthly record is still very much in play. Yep. Top 5 snowstorm is still possible. Top 10 should be a given. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaserguy Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Sadly this has been the trend with the models (I.e. show historic storms then go down to reality). Your getting an awesome storm but the historic model runs make you feel robbed. Exactly. It’s still a big storm but a bit of a letdown after there was so much consistency for so long with the high end totals. I should still end up with 15-17” by the end of it. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 The 4.1” at the airport came from 0.33” liquid equivalent for a ratio of 12:1 which is lower then guidance. There’s a nice band still impacting Red Wing MN and areas just south of the metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 hour ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Just stepped outside, got a layer of ice already forming on everything, have a feeling a nasty day ahead It's definitely trended south, an absolute rarity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 14 hours ago, Baum said: Radar still looks a bit sketchy, though they tend to explode in set ups like this. I see LOT took the bait and brought the freezing rain line south a touch. Big worry with this is robbing of moisture transport from gulf convection. You’re looking at the radar too early. Give it a few more hours. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 15 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: Dry fropa, sad times the lead wave is the main wave here. looking good later, hopefully we can get some t'storms in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaserguy Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Sun is out and I see blue sky here in the north metro lol . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Hanging on to 32 degrees. Moderate rain coming down. The ice is having a harder time accumulating but there’s a little more than a couple hours ago. Still nothing on the ground so roads, outside of bridges and overpasses, shouldn’t be bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 13 minutes ago, mnchaserguy said: Sun is out and I see blue sky here in the north metro lol . Lol here too, a few blocks east of Lake Nokomis. Wasn’t expecting that, models still spitting out a solid foot here later today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Had a brief period of freezing rain. It wasn't heavy hence it didn't run off. Railing on the front steps is a bit icy but mostly wet. Temp at 31F and dewpoint at 27F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Minor glaze on elevated surfaces here, but temps are on the upswing. At 32 on the dot currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Dropped the kid off at my in-laws. I’m going skiing, my local area was in that sweet spot last night and picked up close to 6” 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Hourly shows temps in canton around 29 that’s some trouble 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2023 Author Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 hour ago, sbnwx85 said: Hanging on to 32 degrees. Moderate rain coming down. The ice is having a harder time accumulating but there’s a little more than a couple hours ago. Still nothing on the ground so roads, outside of bridges and overpasses, shouldn’t be bad. Had a brief period earlier with temps at 32. Now above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 GFS hitting the I-94 corridor pretty hard with freezing rain. Hope it isn't as bad as it implies or that area is going to be a real mess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 pulling for the crippling mi ice storm, good luck yall 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2023 Author Share Posted February 22, 2023 Doubt there are any road issues, but Valparaiso was at freezing and reporting freezing rain or unknown precip for like 4 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Elevated surfaces and gravel are glazing over now. About a tenth of an inch accumulations of ice. Temps are 31.8 presently. I wonder if to my west, if there are any asphalt surfaces along tbe i94 corridor icing up ?? I'm on tbe Onario side if that line of ice . Full salt run complete in preparation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 That dry a lot could help the situation a bit but If it’s just drizzle then we will have more issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Widespread 3-6+ where I am in NMI. Classic winter morning. Car thermo at 23F. No melting. What's that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 SPC says game on:https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0173.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2023 Author Share Posted February 22, 2023 Still have some spread in placement of heaviest precip. In general, the Euro(06z run)/NAM/short range models are farther south than the GFS and Canadian models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 I’m terms of ice potential what set of models do better the global or short range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 33 and rain. The worst weather on the planet. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: 33 and rain. The worst weather on the planet. Could be on a planet where it’s 2000C and it’s raining molten iron 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Heavy freezing rain falling at the moment, stuck just under freezing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 30° and moderate rain here. Have just about a .10” on elevated surfaces. Lots of run off. Temp was 32°, dropped to 29° when the rain started and now leveled off at 30°. Roads are fine but they’re also warmer so I guess that’s the silver lining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 3 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Heavy freezing rain falling at the moment, stuck just under freezing Jelly 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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