Hoosier Posted February 22, 2023 Author Share Posted February 22, 2023 7 minutes ago, Harry said: I am gonna have a backyard full of downed trees and power lines . Ugh Pics or it didn't happen. Stay safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 If I was in the ice storm zone I'd have the cams set up to do some time lapse action. Catch those trees slowly drooping/breaking. Would be a pretty sweet time lapse to be sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 hour ago, Powerball said: With the windy conditions and low sun angle, today's 90*F didn't feel bad at all. But -18*F will never *NOT* feel disgusting under any circumstance, lol... Yea its gonna break record highs down here in estero this week. It's humid too but tbh it's no worse than summer humid heat in michigan. I'd imagine come summer, I'll notice a bit of a difference lol. Def beats frigid cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 12 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: Yea its gonna break record highs down here in estero this week. It's humid too but tbh it's no worse than summer humid heat in michigan. I'd imagine come summer, I'll notice a bit of a difference lol. Def beats frigid cold. I'll pass on both.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 As we near midnight we have widespread 70s with decent humidity as far north as Oklahoma, and -20s and -30s just north of the US/Canadian border. You can definitely see why we have such a powerful synoptic setup in the making. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Pics or it didn't happen. Stay safe. If I can I will. This phone acts retarded sometimes and I am not sure if I exceeded my limits here as I think there used to be one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2023 Author Share Posted February 22, 2023 Looking at obs from central IL, temps are generally dropping a couple degrees in the hour after precip onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 IWX upped ice to 0.2, didn’t expand advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 IWX and DTX both state they may need to upgrade their WWA areas later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Dry fropa, sad times 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 30 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Dry fropa, sad times 30 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Dry fropa, sad times Radar still looks a bit sketchy, though they tend to explode in set ups like this. I see LOT took the bait and brought the freezing rain line south a touch. Big worry with this is robbing of moisture transport from gulf convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Freezing rain has begun here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Colder this morning by 2 degrees at 29 imby and noticing the hourly has it mostly at 30. Going to be an interesting day for sure . I’ll be raining out unless I get called to storm work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Upped ice potential. 0.1-0.3 Winter to forget 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Solid first thunderstorm of the year here. Just had a very close CG strike. Not bad for 6:30 AM in February. I'm sure that it acted as an alarm clock for a lot of people. It's getting me in the mood for severe season. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Eyeballing around 4” here. Lower end of guidance, but still within guidance nonetheless. People will call this a bust because we hit the lower end instead of the upper end. (Same as it ever was) The southern suburbs are doing well. There’s been a band stalled out just south of the Minnesota River for a few hours and I expect numerous 6”+ reports down there. Of course the official obs site at the airport is a few miles north of that… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Just stepped outside, got a layer of ice already forming on everything, have a feeling a nasty day ahead 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 My backyard thermometer just went from 30 to 31 at 7 am. I’ll assume it was about this temperature while the moderate to heavy freezing rain moved through last hour. The parking lots and grass were only wet but everything else was covered in ice. Trees, cars, fences, etc. It seemed to accrue somewhat efficiently just above the ground. You’ve been alerted, Michigan posters. Good luck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 School cancelled due to the ISW and concern of safe travel at end of day.Heavier than normal early morning inbound commute on I-90 from far nw burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Surface Temps around here are closer to the warmer HiRes models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 38 minutes ago, IWXwx said: Solid first thunderstorm of the year here. Just had a very close CG strike. Not bad for 6:30 AM in February. I'm sure that it acted as an alarm clock for a lot of people. It's getting me in the mood for severe season. Sounds a lot better than just a cold rainy (icy) day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 33 with light right here. Looks like around a half inch or so to fall in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 8 hours ago, mollydog said: Last major in Oakland County was Apr 2003. Missed out on Christmas 2013. Mostly lapeer. Totally not stressing on this one! April 2003 was an incredible event. The Christmas 2013 was pretty bad here IMBY in NE Livingston County. Some of my neighbors trees still show damage (still recovering major branches). I will say it was very cool as it was my first white and very crystal Christmas!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaserguy Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 3.5-4” here so far. Definitely low compared to the 6-8” forecast by MPX. Looks like a foot tonight into tomorrow is a solid better. Probably unlikely we hit 18” at this point. Big storm but significantly lower than what was shown by the models for several days. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Got the first flakes let’s see how long it stays around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 6 minutes ago, mnchaserguy said: 3.5-4” here so far. Definitely low compared to the 6-8” forecast by MPX. Looks like a foot tonight into tomorrow is a solid better. Probably unlikely we hit 18” at this point. Big storm but significantly lower than what was shown by the models for several days. . 4.1” at the airport as of 6am. Definitely the lower side of guidance but they were calling for 4-8” in this first wave, so not a bust. Really strong banding overnight in the south metro. Shame models are showing a substantial drying trend but we should have know those crazy totals from a couple days ago were unrealistic. I believe the record February snowfall at MSP is only in the 13-14” range so the monthly record is still very much in play. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 3 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: IWX and DTX both state they may need to upgrade their WWA areas later DTX: With the current outgoing forecast out of the way will offer to insight in a potential deviation point as this gets into the latest model trends and ramifications we`re watching. Hi-res runs this past evening and tonight from the HRRR/RAP to NAM Nest (and to a lesser magnitude the NAM12) are having a harder time lifting the frontal slope into the area resulting into a shallower elevated warm nose over the I-69/M-59 corridors, increasing sleet probabilities. If this scenario pans outs, there would be a southward shift in primary freezing rain axis towards the I-96/94 corridors... which as a sidenote would be more in line with what the GFS and Canadian-NH have been advertising. In addition, this would limit the chances to switch to all rain over the far southern CWA instead remaining wintry mix/freezing rain and increasing icing... which could warrant a need for an upgrade of some or all of the advisory counties to an ice storm warning. Areas of additional concern/uncertainties are the effect of the still open waters of Lake Huron sitting firmly in the mid to upper 30s, degree of latent heat release from higher rainfall rates (or conversely any wet bulb cooling given dewpoints in the 20s), and the effect on ice accretion efficiency given the moderate precip rates. Unfortunately these three points remain fairly nebulous and really won`t be known until the event actually begins. So basically, they won't know until it is already a done deal. Perfect for that office. They can then bump headlines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Had some snow overnight. Transitioned to sleet now. Looks like precip will be spotty until the afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 4 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: So basically, they won't know until it is already a done deal. Perfect for that office. They can then bump headlines. I love the last sentence the best: Unfortunately these three points remain fairly nebulous and really won`t be known until the event actually begins. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 4 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: DTX: With the current outgoing forecast out of the way will offer to insight in a potential deviation point as this gets into the latest model trends and ramifications we`re watching. Hi-res runs this past evening and tonight from the HRRR/RAP to NAM Nest (and to a lesser magnitude the NAM12) are having a harder time lifting the frontal slope into the area resulting into a shallower elevated warm nose over the I-69/M-59 corridors, increasing sleet probabilities. If this scenario pans outs, there would be a southward shift in primary freezing rain axis towards the I-96/94 corridors... which as a sidenote would be more in line with what the GFS and Canadian-NH have been advertising. In addition, this would limit the chances to switch to all rain over the far southern CWA instead remaining wintry mix/freezing rain and increasing icing... which could warrant a need for an upgrade of some or all of the advisory counties to an ice storm warning. Areas of additional concern/uncertainties are the effect of the still open waters of Lake Huron sitting firmly in the mid to upper 30s, degree of latent heat release from higher rainfall rates (or conversely any wet bulb cooling given dewpoints in the 20s), and the effect on ice accretion efficiency given the moderate precip rates. Unfortunately these three points remain fairly nebulous and really won`t be known until the event actually begins. So basically, they won't know until it is already a done deal. Perfect for that office. They can then bump headlines. I’ve been siding with global models just due to sheer consistency since last weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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