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February 21-23 Major Winter Storm


Hoosier
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6 minutes ago, Harry Perry said:

Atleast the HRRR isn’t that bad compared to other guidance. Wouldn’t be too prolific if that  run verifies.

Maybe not for Calhoun. Remember, we dodged a major bullet with the Dec 2013 ice storm. Might be time to pay for that. Dec '06 almost took me out (nearly totalled my ride). That's the last bad one I remember for Calhoun. 

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2 minutes ago, Harry Perry said:

You make a valid point, it’s been a while since we’ve had a doozy.

I edited my post to say the last bad one I remember for Calhoun was Dec of 2006. There were one or two more in early '07 and a minor one during the mid-Feb 2011 storm. Dec '06 could've cost me my life as I drove my car straight through a massive tree downed across the entire road in the dark.

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7 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

I edited my post to say the last bad one I remember for Calhoun was Dec of 2006. There were one or two more in early '07 and a minor one during the mid-Feb 2011 storm. Dec '06 could've cost me my life as I drove my car straight through a massive tree downed across the entire road in the dark.

Wow, glad you’re alright. Where about was that? I remember that storm well. Massive trees uprooted everywhere, almost looked like wind damage from a severe storm vs. ice storm. Lots of damage along M-37 toward Bedford. Went to my grandfathers to check on him and see if he needed a generator (behind Rombaughs auto sales) and it was like a scene out of a movie - every tree on his property was nearly bent over backwards. 

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17 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

I edited my post to say the last bad one I remember for Calhoun was Dec of 2006. There were one or two more in early '07 and a minor one during the mid-Feb 2011 storm. Dec '06 could've cost me my life as I drove my car straight through a massive tree downed across the entire road in the dark.

The best thing about that winter was that lake length les band that got pulled in our way via that meso low. 

Ofcourse that ice storm in April a few years back ( 17 or 18? ) sucked as it took out half a tree that crashed through my deck railing and deck out back but thankfully soft landed on the house. Terrible sound when it crash  landed and thought it had taken out my bathroom window upstairs which thankfully didn't. 

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1 hour ago, RogueWaves said:

If DTW and Wyandotte had my numbers (in red) you wouldn't be quite so chipper. And this year isn't going any where, sorry. Doubtful I hit 20"

I'm sorry you were in a screw hole. My main point was the past several winters in most of SE MI were near climo (actually slightly snowier than climo at most stations last winter). This winter is not. And a sucky winter doesn't mean nothing happens in mar/apr. Maybe we go the rest of the way with no more measurable snow. Maybe we get a huge snowstorm. Or more than likely somewhere in between. You must be awfully close to 20, so you'll likely hit it.

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2 minutes ago, Harry said:

The best thing about that winter was that lake length les band that got pulled in our way via that meso low. 

Ofcourse that ice storm in April a few years back ( 17 or 18? ) sucked as it took out half a tree that crashed through my deck railing and deck out back but thankfully soft landed on the house. Terrible sound when it crash  landed and thought it had taken out my bathroom window upstairs which thankfully didn't. 

Damn, that’s no good. That storm (believe it was 2018), was strange around here. You could go out Pennfield/Bellevue and it was awful, but the minute you turned onto Raymond Rd and headed south to Michigan Ave, very little in the way of ice. Two different worlds minutes apart. 

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14 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

SE MI forecast is so damn tricky with this one. Last real ice storm here (not counting minor glazing) was Apr 15, 2018. And before that it had been several years. Ironically the most ice storms were centered around the least snowy decade (1940s). 

 

 

I definitely think IWX and DTX will be adding and expanding overnight looking at the majority of the 00z data. 

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30 minutes ago, Harry Perry said:

Damn, that’s no good. That storm (believe it was 2018), was strange around here. You could go out Pennfield/Bellevue and it was awful, but the minute you turned onto Raymond Rd and headed south to Michigan Ave, very little in the way of ice. Two different worlds minutes apart. 

 

Yep so you can guess where I am. Other then this one ocean effect snowstorm I have never seen such drastic cut offs with ice, snow etc till I moved here. Look at that November Les event. 21 this part of town ( north ) vs a few inches out by/just south of Beckley. Have seen the reverse as well when I first moved here.  Crazy stuff. 

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49 minutes ago, Harry Perry said:

Wow, glad you’re alright. Where about was that? I remember that storm well. Massive trees uprooted everywhere, almost looked like wind damage from a severe storm vs. ice storm. Lots of damage along M-37 toward Bedford. Went to my grandfathers to check on him and see if he needed a generator (behind Rombaughs auto sales) and it was like a scene out of a movie - every tree on his property was nearly bent over backwards. 

I drove through the tree in Albion. The same morning a Marshall fireman did the same thing north of Marshall and was killed.

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6 minutes ago, Harry said:

 

Yep so you can guess where I am. Other then this one ocean effect snowstorm I have never seen such drastic cut offs with ice, snow etc till I moved here. Look at that November Les event. 21 this part of town ( north ) vs a few inches out by/just south of Beckley. Have seen the reverse as well when I first moved here.  Crazy stuff. 

Explains why I didn't remember April of 2018. Apparently south (Marshall) was spared. 

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This would be one of the worst ice storms ever for Detroit if the 00z models are right. Definitely a bit more concerning now given that we're less than 24 hours from the onset of precip.

That said, several things could still happen to make for a better outcome.

1. More snow/sleet at the onset (with a slower transition).

2. Less total QPF (00z models were at least drier than prior runs).

3. Surface temps are being underestimated by models.

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2 minutes ago, Powerball said:

This would be one of the worst ice storms ever for Detroit if the 00z models are right. Definitely a bit more concerning now given that we're less than 24 hours from the onset of precip.

That said, several things could still happen to make for a better outcome.

1. More snow/sleet at the onset.

2. Less total QPF (00z models were atleast drier than prior runs).

3. Surface temps are being underestimated by models.

 

I'll take anything at this point.. 

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