sbnwx85 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 16 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 18z HRRR got some ice down into the I-80 corridor tomorrow morning. There will be some dry air to play with early on (dews in the 20s) and precip onset seems to be speeding up, so I guess you never know. Look at what the HRRR puts down before temps go above freezing for my area. Edit: And here's the entire run...FWIW 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 21, 2023 Author Share Posted February 21, 2023 2 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: Look at what the HRRR puts down before temps go above freezing for my area. The 18z NAM is trending this way as well, though still has the placement a bit farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 GRR goes ice storm warning for our area, calling for up to half of an inch. Lovely. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Snow is underway at my office in west Bloomington. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 DVN pulled the trigger for an Ice Storm Warning for the row of counties just to my north. Winter Weather Advisory here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 1 minute ago, Natester said: DVN pulled the trigger for an Ice Storm Warning for the row of counties just to my north. Winter Weather Advisory here. Milwaukee Ice Storm Warning doe SE Wisc ...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Significant icing expected. Total ice accumulations of a quarter to one half of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 16 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: Look at what the HRRR puts down before temps go above freezing for my area. Edit: And here's the entire run...FWIW Detroit's UHI doing its thing... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 18z NAM FRAM 9with 2m temps in Northern Chicagoland hovering around 32 those ice #'s below are hard to believe) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 21, 2023 Author Share Posted February 21, 2023 7 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: 18z NAM FRAM 9with 2m temps in Northern Chicagoland hovering around 32 those ice #'s below are hard to believe) My understanding of FRAM is that it's based on 3 main things -- wetbulb temps, wind speeds and precip rates. I'm still unclear on whether it accounts for warm layer temp. The wind is pretty favorable for enhanced accretion, but the precip rates and wetbulb temps aren't (too heavy at times and too borderline, respectively). FRAM will be better than using the freezing rain qpf maps in this case, but it would still make sense to go under that imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 IWX goes WWA for Branch and HIllsdale. I suspect they'll expand that to cover a light glaze of ice further south and west overnight. It's annoying some TV mets that they're waiting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 I've never expected more than light to moderate rain here, perhaps including a bit of freezing rain. I'm fine with that. We got our good storm last week. I hate seeing the Euro and UK drastically cutting snow totals up in Minnesota/Wisconsin, though... 30+% across the board compared to a few runs ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 8 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: I've never expected more than light to moderate rain here, perhaps including a bit of freezing rain. I'm fine with that. We got our good storm last week. I hate seeing the Euro and UK drastically cutting snow totals up in Minnesota/Wisconsin, though... 30+% across the board compared to a few runs ago. I'd genuinely rather miss out altogether than have a mega dog trend to a big dog. To be that excited for something labeled as potentially historic for days only for it to trend downwards would be far worse than just another miss in an already shit winter. Here's to hoping that things shift back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 On 2/19/2023 at 2:29 PM, SchaumburgStormer said: Waiting for model weakening and qpf lowering, as is tradition 7 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: I've never expected more than light to moderate rain here, perhaps including a bit of freezing rain. I'm fine with that. We got our good storm last week. I hate seeing the Euro and UK drastically cutting snow totals up in Minnesota/Wisconsin, though... 30+% across the board compared to a few runs ago. Delayed, but not denied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 8 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: I've never expected more than light to moderate rain here, perhaps including a bit of freezing rain. I'm fine with that. We got our good storm last week. I hate seeing the Euro and UK drastically cutting snow totals up in Minnesota/Wisconsin, though... 30+% across the board compared to a few runs ago. That has been the theme for most storms this winter. QPF gets cuts back over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Lol WWA for Wayne county 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 4 minutes ago, WestMichigan said: That has been the theme for most storms this winter. QPF gets cuts back over time. We always fall for it. Take a QPF output 72 hours out and halve it. That's the reality of being this far from the ocean, we don't have the moisture transport. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 19 minutes ago, WestMichigan said: That has been the theme for most storms this winter. QPF gets cuts back over time. Tried telling people this yesterday. Been that way for years. I doubt the trends are done as well. Hoping for a miracle here. Not sure I'll get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 22 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: I'd genuinely rather miss out altogether than have a mega dog trend to a big dog. To be that excited for something labeled as potentially historic for days only for it to trend downwards would be far worse than just another miss in an already shit winter. I disagree, while it sucks seeing 12-15” instead of 18-22” I want us to crack the top 10 for longest continuous snowcover of 1” or more. #10 is 107 days and we are at 84 days today. Plus still have a shot at the all time seasonal snowfall record. If I was chasing futility maybe I’d have a different outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 KLOT went with Winter Weather Advisory ILZ003>006-220500- /O.NEW.KLOT.WW.Y.0005.230222T1200Z-230223T1200Z/ Winnebago-Boone-McHenry-Lake IL- Including the cities of Rockford, Belvidere, Crystal Lake, Algonquin, McHenry, Woodstock, Waukegan, Buffalo Grove, Mundelein, and Gurnee 300 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2023 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Freezing rain and sleet expected. Total ice accumulations of two to three tenths of an inch with locally higher possible near the state line, while total sleet accumulations up to one half inch. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Winnebago, Boone, McHenry and Lake IL Counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 21, 2023 Author Share Posted February 21, 2023 4 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: KLOT went with Winter Weather Advisory ILZ003>006-220500- /O.NEW.KLOT.WW.Y.0005.230222T1200Z-230223T1200Z/ Winnebago-Boone-McHenry-Lake IL- Including the cities of Rockford, Belvidere, Crystal Lake, Algonquin, McHenry, Woodstock, Waukegan, Buffalo Grove, Mundelein, and Gurnee 300 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2023 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Freezing rain and sleet expected. Total ice accumulations of two to three tenths of an inch with locally higher possible near the state line, while total sleet accumulations up to one half inch. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Winnebago, Boone, McHenry and Lake IL Counties. The middle to high end range of their forecast ice amounts would be warning criteria. Will be interesting to see the reasoning in the afd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 KLOT discussion by RC 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 RFD should have been in ice storm warning. The band of ice storm warning counties is too narrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 38 minutes ago, Harry said: Tried telling people this yesterday. Been that way for years. I doubt the trends are done as well. Hoping for a miracle here. Not sure I'll get it. Very true about QPF and it seems to be worse but there always seems to be a place or two that it is close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 1 hour ago, SolidIcewx said: Lol WWA for Wayne county Marginal temps + full on city=> makes sense 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 I-96 on the ice/sleet line and I-94 on the ice/rain line. Little shifts N/S keeping me on edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 54 minutes ago, Harry said: Tried telling people this yesterday. Been that way for years. I doubt the trends are done as well. Hoping for a miracle here. Not sure I'll get it. If there was some 1055 high pressure to the NNE of Lake Huron this was crashing into. I would have some hope. Of course then I would dry air issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 40 hours straight of snow around msp. Impressive but doubt anyone sees over 15 inches. Looks like a rare/decent ice setup along m59 in metro detroit. It's all gonna get washed away with the next system. Not sure what's on the ground now around msp, but see flooding an issue next week. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 1 hour ago, OrdIowPitMsp said: I disagree, while it sucks seeing 12-15” instead of 18-22” I want us to crack the top 10 for longest continuous snowcover of 1” or more. #10 is 107 days and we are at 84 days today. Plus still have a shot at the all time seasonal snowfall record. If I was chasing futility maybe I’d have a different outlook. Well yeah, I mean in your position I'd definitely take anything. Shit, in my position too I suppose. But in terms of stickiness.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Things I never thought i'd see. Hardy Palm weenied by Alek for complaining Ice Storm Warnings issuances are too narrow. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 21, 2023 Author Share Posted February 21, 2023 Not the strongest surface high that we've seen, but there's a nice cold/dry air reservoir in Michigan/Wisconsin to pull from. Dewpoints are in the teens or lower in basically the entirety of those states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now