mimillman Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said: Are you really complaining about 18in? Lol. I haven't even got winter storm warning criteria this winter. Will gladly trade you. I would do anything to experience a storm like what Minneapolis is about to get. Truly incredible and rare event. You should go out east for the real stuff. Obviously not this winter but traveling to Boston in Feb 2015 was epic 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 I had the pleasure of being in midtown Manhattan during the January 2016 storm. 27.5” at Central Park, 30.5” JFK. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 2 hours ago, ILSNOW said: 18z Euro ice Hard pass on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 4 minutes ago, Cary67 said: Hard pass on that. Same. Need to get a south trend going tonight. Gonna pull out the ole magnet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 28 minutes ago, mimillman said: You should go out east for the real stuff. Obviously not this winter but traveling to Boston in Feb 2015 was epic That's actually on my bucket list to do. Experience a powerhouse Nor'easter. Also need to get in one of those historic lake effect bands. Just so rare to get double digit snows here anymore. Use to not be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 00z NAM sticking to its guns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Folks in southern lower Michigan including myself. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 10 minutes ago, Harry Perry said: 00z NAM sticking to its guns. Usually does till it gets inside of 36 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 21, 2023 Author Share Posted February 21, 2023 lol at the HRRR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 6 minutes ago, Hoosier said: lol at the HRRR Wagons north. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 17 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Wagons north. Lol Should be interesting to see what happens here. Love that the front can indeed make it north of the MI/IN/OH and IL/WI border in the middle of winter, but never come spring… Stays along I-80 Every. Single. Time. Keeping the weather trash here and 70° and sunny 50 miles south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Since when did this board start bowing down to the short range models beyond 36 hours? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaserguy Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Since when did this board start bowing down to the short range models beyond 36 hours? Short and medium range models are showing the same thing the long range have been showing for a week. Not sure what the problem is here. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 3 minutes ago, mnchaserguy said: Short and medium range models are showing the same thing the long range have been showing for a week. Not sure what the problem is here. . For around here it's night and day between the short range vs the others. Bad ice storm vs plain rain. I am hoping for the rain but I know better then to trust those models showing the rain. Alot of tall trees and power lines behind my house so yeah I'll pass on the ice. Ofcourse ma nature is gonna what it likes. Ofcourse I have more personal reason for not wanting the ice either which has to do with Thursday night plans. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 40 minutes ago, Harry Perry said: Should be interesting to see what happens here. Love that the front can indeed make it north of the MI/IN/OH and IL/WI border in the middle of winter, but never come spring… Stays along I-80 Every. Single. Time. Keeping the weather trash here and 70° and sunny 50 miles south. Right! So frustrating! Would love the opposite! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 4 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Right! So frustrating! Would love the opposite! Really has been a few crappy years huh? Ofcourse I didn't notice as I used to as I have been too busy doing other stuff. Ofcourse the mid/late 2000s and 2010s kinda spoiled us with them 80, 90, 100+ winters here. This area went 15 or so years without a winter below 60 inches. Fyi. Back in the 1930-60 period the normal here was around 40 with only two going above the 60 mark and a slew of 18-30. For the time being it's now closer to 70 thanks to the 2000s and 2010s. 97-98 was the last time this area failed to make 40 or even 30.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 0z UKMET another tick north. Looking unlikely that we will get ice here. That's perfectly fine with me since I hate ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 24 minutes ago, Natester said: 0z UKMET another tick north. Looking unlikely that we will get ice here. That's perfectly fine with me since I hate ice. Any little tick north helps here. Just not enough yet but getting close. Ofcourse I don't follow this model as often so not sure how reliable it is in these situations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sielicki Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 6 hours ago, Hoosier said: If nothing goes wrong, Minneapolis could receive more snow in this storm than anybody not in a lake effect zone south of ~42N has gotten all winter. Usually this type of thing happens at least once a year in the Dakotas. Nice to see Minnesota getting it for once. Also Nebraska did have a snowstorm with more than 30 inches last month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 21, 2023 Author Share Posted February 21, 2023 5 minutes ago, MNstorms said: Usually this type of thing happens at least once a year in the Dakotas. Nice to see Minnesota getting it for once. Also Nebraska did have a snowstorm with more than 30 inches last month. I meant south of 42N in this sub. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 21, 2023 Author Share Posted February 21, 2023 19 minutes ago, sielicki said: How is the GFS still doing this phantom snowcover thing around the southern Lakes? Geez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 4 hours ago, RogueWaves said: You had more or less the same with one or both LES events Lake effect isn’t real snow. Its mostly air and shrinks by 50% as soon as the sun comes out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 18 minutes ago, Hoosier said: How is the GFS still doing this phantom snowcover thing around the southern Lakes? Geez Kinda wish NCEP would fire up the old AVN model. Would bet money it was more accurate than the GFS has been the past several years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 3 hours ago, Harry said: Same. Need to get a south trend going tonight. Gonna pull out the ole magnet.. Please do. I push. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 21, 2023 Author Share Posted February 21, 2023 00z Euro is much wetter with precip amounts near/north of the initial sfc low track. That heaviest band is pretty much south of the ice area, though still have more than respectable qpf farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 56 minutes ago, sielicki said: Anticipating a nice cold rain, but what's the source of that purple blob in far NE IL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 00z Euro is much wetter with precip amounts near/north of the initial sfc low track. That heaviest band is pretty much south of the ice area, though still have more than respectable qpf farther north.The Euro was showing lingering snow cover in the IL/WI state line area but 00z run backed off and is more realistic finally. So perhaps a reason to put some stock in 2m temp depiction, unlike the GFS phantom snow cover nonsense. Interestingly, the lighter precip rates north plus gusty winds Wednesday evening, if temps are cold enough, would support an uptick in accretion rates. The position of the heavy rain swath remains uncertain, as well as top end magnitude. 6-hour flash flood guidance is around 2", so may need close to or above 2" amounts to have more than minor flooding/ponding. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Anticipating a nice cold rain, but what's the source of that purple blob in far NE IL? Inexplicably bad model parameterization. Hoping our Science and Operations Officer (SOO) emails the developers about this issue since its now been multiple runs in a row of generating phantom snow depth in a non snow supportive air mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 21, 2023 Author Share Posted February 21, 2023 4 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: The Euro was showing lingering snow cover in the IL/WI state line area but 00z run backed off and is more realistic finally. So perhaps a reason to put some stock in 2m temp depiction, unlike the GFS phantom snow cover nonsense. Interestingly, the lighter precip rates north plus gusty winds Wednesday evening, if temps are cold enough, would support an uptick in accretion rates. The position of the heavy rain swath remains uncertain, as well as top end magnitude. 6-hour flash flood guidance is around 2", so may need close to or above 2" amounts to have more than minor flooding/ponding. Do you know if FRAM accounts for max temp aloft (or max wet bulb temp aloft)? I was looking at the pdf that you had linked and I didn't see anything about that. It mentioned wet bulb temps but I assumed it was talking about sfc wet bulb temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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