sbnwx85 Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Just now, Hoosier said: Seriously think I might nab a personal record for amount of rain with temps in the mid 30s. The winter of futility records continues for ya. Smdh. At least the end of the month looks to be active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Looking like lots of ice here unless the NAM is right. Going to get some generator gas just in case. This could end up being my largest precip total event since October 2021. I haven't had an event >3/4" precip in 16 months. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaryWarren Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 My point and click has 18 inches total. fml! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 I would imagine GRR would hoist watches this afternoon considering every model gives them heavy wintry precip in some form. IWX may issue one for Branch and Hillsdale in MI, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 17 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: I would imagine GRR would hoist watches this afternoon considering every model gives them heavy wintry precip in some form. IWX may issue one for Branch and Hillsdale in MI, too. I just don't know if anywhere south of I-94 needs something. The more you look at the models, the more likely everywhere north of there is your best bet for heavy ice/snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2023 Author Share Posted February 20, 2023 22 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: IWX may issue one for Branch and Hillsdale in MI, too. Those counties were mentioned in the afternoon afd, but it looks like they aren't issuing a watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 18z HRRR waaaaay too far north with the warm temps and way too fast with the lead low. Has the warm front along I-80 in Iowa. We'll see what the NAM says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 I always jump the gun in the "When Will Watches Be Issued Game". I may never learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2023 Author Share Posted February 20, 2023 1 minute ago, Natester said: 18z HRRR waaaaay too far north with the warm temps and way too fast with the lead low. Has the warm front along I-80 in Iowa. We'll see what the NAM says. I feel like all is right in the world when the longer range RAP and HRRR are jacked. Feels a little weird when they aren't. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 8 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Those counties were mentioned in the afternoon afd, but it looks like they aren't issuing a watch. It’s gonna be close here, a little shift is the difference between rain and crippling ice. If the south trend continues the ice threat will be even bigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 4 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: It’s gonna be close here, a little shift is the difference between rain and crippling ice. If the south trend continues the ice threat will be even bigger. I would go with a more northern forecast at this time. Just such a surge of warm air that I doubt significant ice occurs south of 94 in Michigan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Winter storm warning has been hoisted. 18-22” by Friday morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaserguy Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 I may never see a forecast like this around here again. . 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2023 Author Share Posted February 20, 2023 My backyard will be a pond if the 18z NAM verifies. Takes on water at the least excuse imaginable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaserguy Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Our floor is 18”. My god. If this verifies it’ll be the biggest snowstorm I remember seeing first hand. And I’ve seen some big ones around here. . 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2023 Author Share Posted February 20, 2023 5 minutes ago, mnchaserguy said: Our floor is 18”. My god. If this verifies it’ll be the biggest snowstorm I remember seeing first hand. And I’ve seen some big ones around here. . That's nuts. Good luck y'all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Pretty early in the year to break out the Excessive Rainfall Outlook map but here we are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 I am here to get a south trend started. I hope.. Ofcourse I wouldn't mind getting deep into the warm sector either. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 I should mention that the 18z NAM 12k is a bump to the north. EDIT: 18z RGEM also a tick north. EDIT 2: 18z ICON also a tick to the north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 39 minutes ago, mnchaserguy said: I may never see a forecast like this around here again. . It’s just unbelievable what the models keep spitting out, and with a metro bullseye to boot. Todays teaser clipper dropped more then expected too. Still trying to temper my expectations but it’s tough with such consistency 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaserguy Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 It’s just unbelievable what the models keep spitting out, and with a metro bullseye to boot. Todays teaser clipper dropped more then expected too. Still trying to temper my expectations but it’s tough with such consistency Me too. I’m still waiting for the bottom to drop out somehow but it doesn’t seem like it’s going to. Maybe we’ll have a legit shot to break the Halloween Blizzard record. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: Seriously think I might nab a personal record for amount of rain with temps in the mid 30s. If the NAM is right this would be my one of my biggest 32.1F rain storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 38 minutes ago, Harry said: I am here to get a south trend started. I hope.. Ofcourse I wouldn't mind getting deep into the warm sector either. We need that Josh magnet to start working!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 9 minutes ago, Lightning said: We need that Josh magnet to start working!!! I thought he and his magnet went to the UP? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 7 minutes ago, Lightning said: We need that Josh magnet to start working!!! I need to find the one I had. Lol Truthfully though considering what areas outside the lake zones have seen snowfall isn't that far off the mark of where it should be for here. Still that ice I have no use for especially not the amounts some of the models have been showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 DTX going with nam solutions in their WSW it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaserguy Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 18z GFS is farther south with the initial band but still managed to bump up our totals for the rest of the storm. I don’t even know how to comprehend this. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 MSP will know how we feel in 3-5 years 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2023 Author Share Posted February 20, 2023 Here's a little something for Chicago area folks. Since 2000, there have only been 3 occurrences of a calendar day precip of 1"+ which had less than 1" of snow/sleet and highs in the 30s. Coincidentally, 2 of those days recorded the exact same amount of precip. Date/high/low/precip/snow amount 4/4/2003: 39/32, 1.22", 0 2/16/2006: 37/22, 1.09", T 3/24/2016: 39/30, 1.09", T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 53 minutes ago, mnchaserguy said: Me too. I’m still waiting for the bottom to drop out somehow but it doesn’t seem like it’s going to. Maybe we’ll have a legit shot to break the Halloween Blizzard record. I would like nothing more then to break the Halloween blizzard record. Even challenging it would mean a top 3 storm here. Honestly I thought the April 2018 storm was the best I’d see for awhile but this winter has been something else. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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