Hoosier Posted February 19, 2023 Author Share Posted February 19, 2023 22 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said: I recommend reading the afternoon discussion from MPX. Quality weenie material. It's nice when your floor for snowfall is a foot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 I'm hoping that the temp is right around 31F to 32F if it doesn't get above freezing on Wednesday since at those marginal temps the ice mostly just runs off. I've seen it happen multiple times when temps were at 31F to 32F with hardly any ice accretion on trees and power lines. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Still waiting for something to go wrong. Seeing this 48+ hours out is something new to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2023 Author Share Posted February 20, 2023 The GFS seems to have higher pressures around the Lakes compared to other models, which likely explains why it's getting ice a bit farther south. In any case, there is a nice feed of cold/dry air (dews in the 20s) coming off of the high, which spells big trouble for somebody. It's just a matter of exact placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 6 hours ago, Geoboy645 said: Meanwhile up here we are going to get absolutely buried if these trends keep holding. Just an insane amount of snow. I've only experienced this amount of snow once with the 12/20/12 blizzard. So to potentially do that again and then add a couple more inches would be unimaginable. Especially since I don't have to worry about shoveling or driving in it. Also this would smash a lot of 1 and 2 day snowfall records across most of the state. Shades of the April 2018 blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 18z Euro ice 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 22 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: 18z Euro ice That's def a bump south over n IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2023 Author Share Posted February 20, 2023 1 minute ago, cyclone77 said: That's def a bump south over n IL. It took a step toward having higher pressures around the Lakes. Keep an eye on this. Could reverse on future runs or could not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2023 Author Share Posted February 20, 2023 06z, 12z and 18z Euro runs valid at 00z Thursday. Can see the southward tweaks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 06z, 12z and 18z Euro runs valid at 00z Thursday. Can see the southward tweaks Nice spacing with that GIF...Nice and slow for this old guy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 1 minute ago, Frog Town said: Nice spacing with that GIF...Nice and slow for this old guy. I thought my pc froze 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2023 Author Share Posted February 20, 2023 3 minutes ago, Frog Town said: Nice spacing with that GIF...Nice and slow for this old guy. One needs time to take it all in. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Trending towards another sleet-fest for me. Most boring un-weenie outcome, but at least I wont lose power. A little too early to be sure it won't trend back north though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2023 Author Share Posted February 20, 2023 I know of no easy way to determine this, but I wonder what the record is for liquid precip (rain or freezing rain) falling at ORD with a temp between 32-34 degrees. This might be a top 10 contender for such a thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2023 Author Share Posted February 20, 2023 Seeing signs that the 00z NAM will tick colder/south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 46 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 06z, 12z and 18z Euro runs valid at 00z Thursday. Can see the southward tweaks Talk about some serious overrunning. Temps pushing 70° in Cincy while Toledo is around 40° cooler, some serious accretion could occur across the lower Great Lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Models have been remarkably locked in on MSP seeing an all-timer. Can't remember seeing such consistency on the models for several days. That sure doesn't happen in these parts, thats for sure, lol. Anyways, here's their top 5 snowstorm list. This one is a lock to be inside that list, as long as both parts are considered one system, which I assume it will. 1) 28.4" Oct 31-Nov 3, 1991 2) 21.1" Nov 29-Dec 1, 1985 3) 20.0" Jan 22-23, 1982 4) 17.4" Jan 20-21, 1982 5) 17.1" Dec 10-11, 2010 As well, here's their top 5 3-day total snowfall list: 1) 34.6" Jan 20-22, 1982 2) 27.8" Oct 31-Nov 2, 1991 3) 26.7" Oct 30-Nov 1, 1991 4) 21.7" Jan 22-24, 1982 5) 21.1" Nov 29-Dec 1, 1985 And finally, MSP sits at 55.6" for the season. This storm may put them close to 80" by the time it's done, if all really goes to plan. And with the pattern locked into them seeing several more snow events in the next 2 weeks, their season snowfall record is in serious jeopardy. They may "2007-08 MSN" their possibly former #1. List below... 1) 98.6" in 1983-84 2) 95.0" in 1981-82 3) 88.9" in 1950-51 4) 86.6" in 2010-11 5) 84.9" in 1916-17 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 0z NAM 12k has the main precip missing much of eastern Iowa. Has a brief period of freezing rain early Thursday morning with temps at 31-32F. A lot could change from here on out though. Also, we do have a generator, but with the wind on Thursday and if the power goes out, the house will get potentially dangerously cold. That's why I'm dreading the worst case scenario. Hoping for not much ice here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 One thing to watch for with 2m temps is if models have phantom snow cover and hanging onto it, or if initialization of snow cover improves. Look at the model snow depth to check that. This issue could call into question noteworthy ice accums underneath the more pronounced 850 mb warmth, even with FRAM, and less so with northward extent under the less warm portion of the warm nose. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 I thought NAM would be a bit south too at first but it turned out to be about the same as the previous run with placement of ice in Michigan. Still lofty totals too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2023 Author Share Posted February 20, 2023 NAM is a little weird. Bottles up a lot of precip near the frontal zone, which can occur sometimes, but it doesn't have much, if any support for something that drastic. Also makes the lead wave fairly weak as it moves across IL/IN etc. In theory that should lead to a colder solution farther north, and while it did bump colder around northern IL, it didn't really bring ice farther south elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2023 Author Share Posted February 20, 2023 RGEM came in fairly amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 GFS remains icy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 14 minutes ago, Hoosier said: RGEM came in fairly amped. Also a touch north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 17 minutes ago, Hoosier said: RGEM came in fairly amped. 3 minutes ago, Natester said: Also a touch north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 The 00z GFS and runs before it are creating phantom snow cover in the model snow depth. In fact, the 00z run didn't initialize terribly with snow depth, but it manufactures phantom snow depth on Wednesday over the southern 2/3 of IA, northern IL, northern IN, and southern lower MI even though the snow accumulation algorithms are correctly not generating any snow accumulations for those areas. That will absolutely affect the 2m temp depiction. Meanwhile, the 18z Euro didn't have the same issue as the GFS, but initialized poorly with snow depth over the area and holds onto that phantom snow cover into Wednesday. Something to keep in mind when looking at these outputs, again even with the better FRAM output. If the temps are wrong, the output will be too. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2023 Author Share Posted February 20, 2023 4 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: The 00z GFS and runs before it are creating phantom snow cover in the model snow depth. In fact, the 00z run didn't initialize terribly with snow depth, but it manufactures phantom snow depth on Wednesday even though the snow accumulation algorithms are correctly not generating any snow accumulations over the southern 2/3 of IA, northern IL, northern IN, and southern lower MI. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Great catch RC. Would mean to take its sfc temp output in the area with a good amount of skepticism. In any case, shaping up to be a tricky call in parts of the metro! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 0Z GFS looks to be a touch south in general, the model variation is gonna make for a tough forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2023 Author Share Posted February 20, 2023 While we're wondering why the 00z Euro is running behind... I was looking back at the 18z Euro and noticed it had a window of enough cooling in far northern IL for sleet/snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Looks like a once in a lifetime system. I'm excited. Fortunate I don't work mid week. 4 hours ago, Chicago WX said: Models have been remarkably locked in on MSP seeing an all-timer. Can't remember seeing such consistency on the models for several days. That sure doesn't happen in these parts, thats for sure, lol. Anyways, here's their top 5 snowstorm list. This one is a lock to be inside that list, as long as both parts are considered one system, which I assume it will. It should be. The Winter Storm watch is continuous. The AFDs have made it seem so as well. Also some runs like the Canadian model don't even have a break in the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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