Hoosier Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Let me just get this out of the way from the top. I fully expect this to be a fail storm imby given the current depiction and the way the season has gone so far really leaves no reason to be personally optimistic. With that being said, we currently have pretty remarkable model/ensemble agreement on a potential big (or biggish) ticket item affecting the sub next week. It looks to have a lot of moisture and a tremendous thermal gradient. Potential exists for pretty significant snow and ice accumulations, certainly favoring north of I-80 (possibly well north). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 zzz. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 MSP special. Spring winning the battle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2023 Author Share Posted February 17, 2023 13 minutes ago, Chambana said: MSP special. Spring winning the battle At least you should get into some real deal warmth there (60s plus). Here it will probably be something stupid like being stuck in the 40s or spiking higher at like 3 am when nobody is outside anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Hopefully it tracks far enough north to get us into the warm sector for some 'vection. Don't need anymore 1-2" slushers. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 15 minutes ago, Hoosier said: At least you should get into some real deal warmth there (60s plus). Here it will probably be something stupid like being stuck in the 40s or spiking higher at like 3 am when nobody is outside anyway. Grid has 70. I want futility records at this point. Lawn got a good drink this morning at 36 degrees and heavy rain. Let the green up commence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Congrats Edmonton?...Day 22 of not having any threat at all to track since the Jan 25 snow. Atleast it's been warm up north during all this zzzzz 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 The global models seem fairly honed in on hammering Minnesota next week. It’s not often there’s such strong agreement this far out, it will be very interesting to see what goes wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Just now, OrdIowPitMsp said: The global models seem fairly honed in on hammering Minnesota next week. It’s not often there’s such strong agreement this far out, it will be very interesting to see what goes wrong. Trend is your friend, ride the hot hand. MSP won’t be denied. Warm front surging to Chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 I'm pretty sure we've had at least a couple events this year that started off with great model consensus over the high plains and ended up fucking off east of here. Not trying to hype up or anything, just saying that what might look like remarkable model agreement now could vanish entirely in two hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 South… weaker…. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Rainer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 7 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Rainer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2023 Author Share Posted February 17, 2023 19 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: South… weaker…. Fwiw, there are some ensembles that are farther south (not that that's too surprising) and get Chicago in the game. But certainly not a favored outcome at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 NWS is extremely bullish on accumulating snow here next week. I’ve never seen the grid forecast have 80-90% chance of precipitation 6 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 4 hours ago, OrdIowPitMsp said: NWS is extremely bullish on accumulating snow here next week. I’ve never seen the grid forecast have 80-90% chance of precipitation 6 days out. Must be nice. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2023 Author Share Posted February 17, 2023 A fair number of GEFS members are cold enough for ice in Chicago. Not many showing snow. Even the op runs of multiple models put far northern IL in an icing threat, so wouldn't take much shifting to get that into more of the metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 This one could be quite an ice storm somewhere since it will have a ton of moisture and respectable shallow cold to the north of the front. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2023 Author Share Posted February 17, 2023 5 minutes ago, roardog said: This one could be quite an ice storm somewhere since it will have a ton of moisture and respectable shallow cold to the north of the front. It should pack a punch wherever it ends up. Barring a complete collapse/change in evolution, this should be a fairly breezy storm. You don't need an inch of ice to cause a lot of impacts when you throw in the wind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2023 Author Share Posted February 17, 2023 Don't see a 984 mb low in southern Nevada very often 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 12z Euro (way to early) agrees with you ice comment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 That crap can stay north thank you very much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2023 Author Share Posted February 17, 2023 9 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: 12z Euro (way to early) agrees with you ice comment A dire emergency for palm lovers if there's a modest shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 A zone of significant icing and sleet to its north certainly plausible in this setup, and severe weather in the warm sector. The sharp baroclinic zone and juiced air mass would still be in play with a weaker system, so given the 1035-1040 mb high pressure sandwiched to the north and northeast, that would bring the freezing rain and sleet zones farther south. As it stands, the 12z ECMWF verbatim showing ice storm criteria ice amounts (including with FRAM estimate) and 1-2" of sleet north of I-88 and into southern Wisconsin even with a fairly deep surface low is a red flag for what could happen with a slightly weaker and farther south low pressure track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2023 Author Share Posted February 17, 2023 12 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: A zone of significant icing and sleet to its north certainly plausible in this setup, and severe weather in the warm sector. The sharp baroclinic zone and juiced air mass would still be in play with a weaker system, so given the 1035-1040 mb high pressure sandwiched to the north and northeast, that would bring the freezing rain and sleet zones farther south. As it stands, the 12z ECMWF verbatim showing ice storm criteria ice amounts (including with FRAM estimate) and 1-2" of sleet north of I-88 and into southern Wisconsin even with a fairly deep surface low is a red flag for what would happen with a slightly weaker and farther south low pressure track. A decent number of 06z EPS members tracked through downstate IL/IN. Also appears like we could have multiple surface lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2023 Author Share Posted February 17, 2023 Noticed that some offices have already put freezing rain in the forecast. Rarely see that at 5+ days out (usually it's straight rain or snow forecast) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2023 Author Share Posted February 17, 2023 1 hour ago, OrdIowPitMsp said: Hard pressed to find model/ensemble solutions that miss Minnesota. Even the ones that have a track through the I-70 corridor of IL/IN have an expansive snow shield throughout Minnesota. That solution obviously wouldn't be as impactful there, but it wouldn't be a miss either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 Take it to the bank and cash it, this is money right here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 54 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Hard pressed to find model/ensemble solutions that miss Minnesota. Even the ones that have a track through the I-70 corridor of IL/IN have an expansive snow shield throughout Minnesota. That solution obviously wouldn't be as impactful there, but it wouldn't be a miss either. It’s remarkable how much consistency we are seeing. I feel pretty confident in something significant occurring imby next week. I don’t buy the Euro outputs of 24”+ but we’ve already had one 15” storm this season why not make it two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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