Deep Dive Wx Discussion Thread

[Carvers Gap]

If there is any term I truly hate in professional development, it is "deep dive."  When I hear that term, it makes me want to dive under the table.  So, why am I using this term today....I am sort of making fun of the term.  Anyway, if you have a better term for dialoguing (another term I truly an uncomfortable with) about various aspects of global weather such as the PDO, AMO, IO, AO, NAO, SOI, MJO, PNA, EPO, QBO etc....I am open to suggestions.   Anyway, I thought maybe we could fire up a thread to learn.  I thought of this thread idea, because one aspect of my seasonal forecast that I forgot to include was the PDO.  And the PDO may well have been partly driving the bus this winter(and the past several in North America).  Anyway, here is an article(second link) I am working through.  So, what do you all know about the PDO, and maybe how has it been impacting NA weather?  I "think" the cold phase PDO is connected to Nina ENSO states as cold water is along the Pacific NA coastline and water water is in the north central Pacific.  The warm PDO is the exact opposite.   I am not ignorant not he subject(I do lack overall expertise on this), but I truly need to learn more about it, as I think the warmer anomaly of water over the north central Pacific is pulling the trough into the west.  And the physics of that is what I am trying to understand! How is the warm water in the north central Pac pulling that trough into the West(or is it)?

https://legacy.climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/pdo (primer)

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/30/9/jcli-d-16-0376.1.xml (working through this article currently)

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Here is a deep plunge from Amy Butler on SSWE and their correlation to -NAOs:

TL/DR this SSWE has a higher than normal chance to create a negative NAO, but sample size is small. 

[Daniel Boone]

14 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

If there is any term I truly hate in professional development, it is "deep dive."  When I hear that term, it makes me want to dive under the table.  So, why am I using this term today....I am sort of making fun of the term.  Anyway, if you have a better term for dialoguing (another term I truly an uncomfortable with) about various aspects of global weather such as the PDO, AMO, IO, AO, NAO, SOI, MJO, PNA, EPO, QBO etc....I am open to suggestions.   Anyway, I thought maybe we could fire up a thread to learn.  I thought of this thread idea, because one aspect of my seasonal forecast that I forgot to include was the PDO.  And the PDO may well have been partly driving the bus this winter(and the past several in North America).  Anyway, here is an article(second link) I am working through.  So, what do you all know about the PDO, and maybe how has it been impacting NA weather?  I "think" the cold phase PDO is connected to Nina ENSO states as cold water is along the Pacific NA coastline and water water is in the north central Pacific.  The warm PDO is the exact opposite.   I am not ignorant not he subject(I do lack overall expertise on this), but I truly need to learn more about it, as I think the warmer anomaly of water over the north central Pacific is pulling the trough into the west.  And the physics of that is what I am trying to understand! How is the warm water in the north central Pac pulling that trough into the West(or is it)?

https://legacy.climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/pdo (primer)

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/30/9/jcli-d-16-0376.1.xml (working through this article currently)

 

The -PDO in conjunction with the Atlantic SST State probably the biggest Killer's. QBO just exacerbates the problem as well.

[Carvers Gap]

JB mentioned tonight that with AI, wx forecasting(by humans) is probably near the end of its time.  That is true for a lot of jobs.  Right now as hobby(wx), we are essentially working to understand what will be infused into tomorrow's computer program.  Nobody cares about IOS on iPhones, they just care that it works dependably.  Is the weather headed in the same direction.  As long as the app works, does it matter if a single person on this planet understands the atmospheric physics behind the computer program?  I hope there will always be people who seek to understand, to think, to better their minds.  

Anyway, I thought a good deep dive discussion might be how this hobby and potentially wx forecasting as a whole will survive the influx of almost certain AI programming.  I am reminded in Dances with Wolves when Costner's character was asked how many European settlers were coming West.  He hedged the first few times he was asked.  Then, he was honest....the influx of people was going to be enormous and unstoppable.  AI reminds me of being in a place without burdens and constructs...the potential is there for AI to swallow up everything that we know and hold dear just as the Plains cultures were swallowed up.  Certainly, AI can make our lives better.  For Native Americans, they would be given modern tools...but the Plains in which many lived would be fenced, property rights given, and their way of life gone.  

Well, anyway, after this Ecclesiastical post(everything is meaningless), have at it....

[PowellVolz]

JB mentioned tonight that with AI, wx forecasting(by humans) is probably near the end of its time.  That is true for a lot of jobs.  Right now as hobby(wx), we are essentially working to understand what will be infused into tomorrow's computer program.  Nobody cares about IOS on iPhones, they just care that it works dependably.  Is the weather headed in the same direction.  As long as the app works, does it matter if a single person on this planet understands the atmospheric physics behind the computer program?  I hope there will always be people who seek to understand, to think, to better their minds.  
Anyway, I thought a good deep dive discussion might be how this hobby and potentially wx forecasting as a whole will survive the influx of almost certain AI programming.  I am reminded in Dances with Wolves when Costner's character was asked how many European settlers were coming West.  He hedged the first few times he was asked.  Then, he was honest....the influx of people was going to be enormous and unstoppable.  AI reminds me of being in a place without burdens and constructs...the potential is there for AI to swallow up everything that we know and hold dear just as the Plains cultures were swallowed up.  Certainly, AI can make our lives better.  For Native Americans, they would be given modern tools...but the Plains in which many lived would be fenced, property rights given, and their way of life gone.  
Well, anyway, after this Ecclesiastical post(everything is meaningless), have at it....

AI is talking over and in ways I never thought was possible. This has nothing to do with weather but an example of AI taking over is Nascar and a few other racing sanctions are experimenting with doing away with the flag man and using AI as a substitute. I’m very fortunate that my job will likely never be taken over by computers unless they can find a robot to fix the heat in the middle of winter.


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[Dsty2001]

Always been curious with the rise of AI and quantum computing the future of meteorology.  I'd still think people will need to interpret and explain the data but more than anything I'm interested to see the accuracy.  Imagine a forecast 2 weeks out with nigh perfect accuracy, that would be wild.