RogueWaves Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 @ logging a winter under 0.5" total snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Defer to Ricky above. 0z HRRR comes in hot . The HRRR stays deeply saturated enough (-10C or colder) for longer, through about 18 or 19z that would hold onto poorer quality snow. But mid-late afternoon, the cloud temps warm up and then have to wait until toward 00z and beyond to flip back to low quality snow. It's a very tough forecast. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 i liked fun ricky better. 3 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 16, 2023 Author Share Posted February 16, 2023 the snow has been trending later as well. This used to look like a morning show here but now it looks like the majority of the snow will fall after noon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Mike Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 10 minutes ago, madwx said: the snow has been trending later as well. This used to look like a morning show here but now it looks like the majority of the snow will fall after noon Flying into Chicago tomorrow late morning and enjoying the trends further south allowing more snow into Chi town. Better then rain. I will even take some mixed bag of stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Whether this actually happens or not is debatable, but there's a multi-model signal on the lake band stalling out somewhere around here for several hours tomorrow night. Even if that were to occur, it's unclear just how robust it will be. The parameters are decent, but not spectacular, and some models do establish some low level convergence with NNW winds on the western end and NNE winds on the eastern end. All I'd say with confidence is that the HRRR is overdone, but the question is how much to cut it by. 50%, 75%, some other number, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 3 hours ago, cyclone77 said: Seems like the mixing issues have bumped a little southeast today. Looking more like a 3-5" type of snow now. I told you that you were sitting pretty for this glad you're finally in line to get something. Looking like slop fest here with a little bit of everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 2 hours ago, RogueWaves said: @ logging a winter under 0.5" total snowfall Nyc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 RC’s comments notwithstanding, GFS/NAM seemed to have ticked back north while the high res is south. Going to be one of the more “nowcast” types of storms that we have had in awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Yeah things have bumped back northwest a bit with this evening's runs. That's what I get for being optimistic lol. Guess I'll just go with 1-5". With how things have gone the past few seasons we'll probably gonna be on the low end of that. On the bright side we're not missing out on anything noteworthy. No big dogs for anyone this season, except up in MSP, or by a big lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Call looking $$$ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 It was a good run. Unfortunately, couldn't wishcast the mother-lode to my back yard. Lost in the mix a bit, This event has actually ticked up in intensity and qpf as it got closer to "go time." That's a damn rare thing these days. Suspect there will be a few more surprises today, good and bad, with an event like this. Be posting from "ground zero" Beer town later today where looking for 8-11". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 4 hours ago, cyclone77 said: Yeah things have bumped back northwest a bit with this evening's runs. That's what I get for being optimistic lol. Guess I'll just go with 1-5". With how things have gone the past few seasons we'll probably gonna be on the low end of that. On the bright side we're not missing out on anything noteworthy. No big dogs for anyone this season, except up in MSP, or by a big lake. your golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Hello dry slot my old friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 A band of heavy snow streaked northeast through Iowa City overnight and dropped 2-4+" of snow. Meanwhile, I did not see a single flake. I'm just now getting into good snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Both the HRRR and the RAP want to drop decent snow imby, with the NAM/GFS pushing the mix line to right above my head. Expecting the kitchen sink today, but what a dicey forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Snow commenced in Poplar Grove about 15 minutes ago. Road in my subdivision already covered. Usually very light traffic on my way to work, but expecting crappy conditions on my drive later this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Leaving for up north. In an un weenie like fashion, I'm trying to beat any snow/ice and be north of it by the time it hits MI. Just don't need to prolong an 8 hour drive any more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Flakes at the office but low quality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Lol @ the radar this morning. The corridor of nothingness between the snow/rain. Pretty much sums up the the winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 16, 2023 Author Share Posted February 16, 2023 flurries starting up on the SW side of Madison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 white rain so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Been chilling with a nothing-burger all morning, but it looks like something may finally be filling in SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 I know you guys don't normally talk about Omaha, but there is 5"-9" spotter reports there right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago916 Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Constant pingers here hitting the windows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 28 minutes ago, Chinook said: I know you guys don't normally talk about Omaha, but there is 5"-9" spotter reports there right now. Over performing. Last night’s forecast was T-3 for Omaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 There’s been a considerable snow hole over Omaha this winter. They were due. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 I'm sitting at 3.7" thanks to the heaviest rates of the season on and off this morning. We are currently in a lull, waiting for the upper low and defo zone to move in. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 the DAB- that fell has melted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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