Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,605
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

2/16/23 Winter Storm


madwx
 Share

Recommended Posts

Defer to Ricky above. 0z HRRR comes in hot .
  snku_acc-imp.us_mw.png
The HRRR stays deeply saturated enough (-10C or colder) for longer, through about 18 or 19z that would hold onto poorer quality snow. But mid-late afternoon, the cloud temps warm up and then have to wait until toward 00z and beyond to flip back to low quality snow. It's a very tough forecast.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, madwx said:

the snow has been trending later as well.  This used to look like a morning show here but now it looks like the majority of the snow will fall after noon

Flying into Chicago tomorrow late morning and enjoying the trends further south allowing more snow into Chi town. Better then rain. I will even take some mixed bag of stuff. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Whether this actually happens or not is debatable, but there's a multi-model signal on the lake band stalling out somewhere around here for several hours tomorrow night.  Even if that were to occur, it's unclear just how robust it will be.  The parameters are decent, but not spectacular, and some models do establish some low level convergence with NNW winds on the western end and NNE winds on the eastern end.  All I'd say with confidence is that the HRRR is overdone, but the question is how much to cut it by.  50%, 75%, some other number, etc.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah things have bumped back northwest a bit with this evening's runs.  That's what I get for being optimistic lol.  Guess I'll just go with 1-5".  With how things have gone the past few seasons we'll probably gonna be on the low end of that.  On the bright side we're not missing out on anything noteworthy.  No big dogs for anyone this season, except up in MSP, or by a big lake.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It was a good run. Unfortunately, couldn't wishcast the mother-lode to my back yard. Lost in the mix a bit, This event has actually ticked up in intensity and qpf as it got closer to "go time." That's a damn rare thing these days. Suspect there will be a few more surprises today, good and bad, with an event like this.  Be posting from "ground zero" Beer town later today where looking for 8-11".

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Yeah things have bumped back northwest a bit with this evening's runs.  That's what I get for being optimistic lol.  Guess I'll just go with 1-5".  With how things have gone the past few seasons we'll probably gonna be on the low end of that.  On the bright side we're not missing out on anything noteworthy.  No big dogs for anyone this season, except up in MSP, or by a big lake.

your golden.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...