hawkeye_wx Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 18z HRRR is a solid improvement for Iowa, now more in line with other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 44 minutes ago, Weather Mike said: As we get this close should be put more focus on the models like the HRRR and others that are better in this close timeframe then the longer range models ? Just asking due to my ignorance. thanks The short-term models like the HRRR should improve within 24 hours, but so should all models. I just watch for trends on all of them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mogget Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 Winter Storm Warnings for 5-7" in the southernmost tier of Wisconsin counties. Advisories to the north now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 Full run I obviously think the lake effect depiction into northwest Indiana is overdone, and it's been something that the HRRR has struggled with more often than not. But in an overall sense, the warm stretch that we've been in will help to give some boost to the lake effect compared to what it would otherwise be with this same airmass. This airmass with more typical lake temps would have delta T values peaking around 16-17C, but it will be more like 19-20C instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 18z NAM steroids 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 Warning issued, let's do this. I'll be happy with 5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 16 minutes ago, tuanis said: Warning issued, let's do this. I'll be happy with 5 inches. Meanwhile I can't even get an advisory. Although I suspect one may be coming eventually because the pm commute tomorrow looks a little dicey with the snow/wind/falling temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 Have no idea how this verifies. But I'm taking the current forecast and advisory package as a"win" from last Saturday in this winter of benign suckage. Only wish my call for 60 on Wednesday and Snow for Thursday was still on the table. I'll be chugging up to beer town before the sun rises. Found a special place near a brown river with waving palms to soothe the soul. I like how the heavy wet snow weighs than snaps its fronds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Although I suspect one may be coming eventually Seems like a good bet. I'd imagine LOT will expand all the headlines south by a county or two if trends hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 Seems like a good bet. I'd imagine LOT will expand all the headlines south by a county or two if trends hold.I'm here this evening - not sure if we'll be able to make any changes this shift, but wouldn't be surprised if there's an expansion by the midnight shift. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 from Milwaukee using the "B" word WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM CST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches, highest amounts near the lake. Winds gusting as high as 35 to 40 mph with blowing and drifting snow. Near blizzard conditions in the afternoon and early evening. * WHERE...Ozaukee, Milwaukee, Racine and Kenosha Counties. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 something is going to happen between tonight and tomorrow night. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 The palms weep 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 8 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: something is going to happen between tonight and tomorrow night. Whoa 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 Think my call is gonna be 3". Been riding the low end of guidance this winter, with the best forcing looking to translate just south of MBY seeing no reason to do differently in this instance. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 4 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Whoa it surprised me too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 21z RAP is trying to do its best impersonation of the HRRR in regards to lake effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 In Mexico so will probably be biggest event in my area this winter 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulder Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 I guess I better get out in the yard and pick up the dog's handiwork in case it does actually snow here. Nothing worse than trying to do that after it has all melted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 3 minutes ago, Cary67 said: In Mexico so will probably be biggest event in my area this winter 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 PETR quality AFD for LOT this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Seems like the mixing issues have bumped a little southeast today. Looking more like a 3-5" type of snow now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 GRR thinks it will be mostly sleet IMBY. Booooring. I don't know if I should wish for something more interesting, like a glazing. That sh*t is such a pain in the ass though I don't think I really want to see it. Is it really too late for a 40 mile SE shift? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve23guy Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 The already closed schools in all of Rock County Wisco pretty much.. wth lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mogget Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Just now, steve23guy said: The already closed schools in all of Rock County Wisco pretty much.. wth lol It gives parents a better chance to find alternative childcare. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 As much as this winter has been boring (except the Christmas blizzard), tomorrow is looking like the biggest snowfall in Cedar Rapids so far this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 The most recent guidance brings a pronounced dry slot centered around 500 mb pretty far north. If you're in the Chicago area and were excited by the 18z NAM kuchera algorithm output, it's definitely overdone based off what's shown on the forecast soundings. There's still uncertainty with how much of the warm conveyor belt (warm advection) precip gets up into northern IL tomorrow morning, with the NCEP guidance more bullish on that note. After that, the models are in good agreement in loss of cloud ice due to the dry slot and this possibly even causing ptype issues up near the WI border (I'm leaning toward there being just enough saturation to stay as a poor quality snow up there). For much of the Chicago metro and points south, some of the guidance brings the warm nose in, and some is colder, but it's kind of immaterial with the cloud temps around -6C. I'd think we'd still have sleet with the low level wedging and steep lapse rates possibly yielding a convective effect driven flip to sleet at times. However, if the WCB precip misses us, concerned that most of the precip tomorrow is a liquid and some sleet mix, with rain/drizzle vs freezing rain/FZDZ dependent upon surface temps. Eventually, the cloud temps cool off to the -10 to -13C range late afternoon and onward, which would shift ptype to mainly low quality snow through Thursday evening. Lake enhancement prospects also seem likely to be affected by the dry air issues aloft. The snow amounts, even in the WSW within LOT CWA, might be overdone due to the mid-level dry air issues. Roads are probably still gonna be shitty for the Thursday PM commute though. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Defer to Ricky above. 0z HRRR comes in hot . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Hey, guys. Busting into this thread from the Southeast because I’m currently in Chicago for a conference. Haven’t seen a single flake all winter IMBY in Hickory, NC. Hoping to see some fall from the sky tomorrow here at the McCormick Center before my scheduled flight leaves ORD in the late afternoon. HRRR and NAM look robust, but @RCNYILWX has me tempering expectations based on the possible dry slot. Of course, I hope my flight actually gets off the ground too… 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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