RCNYILWX Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 I buy decent sleet accums on the north end of the warm nose aloft. Good signal for a low level cold wedge and the incoming air mass with this system is legit wintry. The exact location of the heavy snow band remains a challenge because the differences are being driven by variance in the fgen circulation response. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 Obviously need to take them with grain of salt at this range but 0z hrrr and 03z rap a decent amount se Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 Due to probable mixing issues along the southeast edge of the heavier snow band I'm gonna go with a first call of 1-3 for here/QC. Need a 75-100 mile bump southeast to get us into the heavier snows, but that's probably not gonna happen. Cedar Rapids to Dubuque, and Madison looking golden per usual. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 23 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: I buy decent sleet accums on the north end of the warm nose aloft. Good signal for a low level cold wedge and the incoming air mass with this system is legit wintry. The exact location of the heavy snow band remains a challenge because the differences are being driven by variance in the fgen circulation response. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Wouldn't normally say this, but it seems like the sleet could pose a bigger travel impact than freezing rain in the LOT cwa. I'm just skeptical about how icy the roads can get from freezing rain after it's been this mild. Sleet is icy from the get go, so can imagine that creating a slippery layer right away. Now as temps drop throughout Thursday, then could start to get slippery roads basically cwa wide as any leftover moisture begins to freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 On 2/13/2023 at 5:07 PM, Hoosier said: That's a good assumption. I can clearly remember some days that produced less around downtown than ORD, and there hasn't really been a lake enhanced event of any significance to make up for that. There hasn't really been any pure LES on the SE WI/NE IL side of the lake this winter, and only a few events that have featured some sort of minor enhancement, though none of which actually really aided in producing additional accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 we will see how today's models pan out. But sadly, this is could be the event of the season for MBY.................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 DAB looking ok, gonna need warm surfaces and pingers to get it done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 Models seem to want to split Ottawa County in half and it looks like I am in the wrong half. I guess we will have to wait and see since the difference of a few miles might make a significant difference with the snow line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Mike Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 6 minutes ago, WestMichigan said: Models seem to want to split Ottawa County in half and it looks like I am in the wrong half. I guess we will have to wait and see since the difference of a few miles might make a significant difference with the snow line. Agree I will be in Chicago and in one of those areas a 50 to 75 mile south movement means a lot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 8 minutes ago, Weather Mike said: Agree I will be in Chicago and in one of those areas a 50 to 75 mile south movement means a lot I am not talking 50-75 miles, I am thinking 5-10 miles will make a significant difference based on the 0Z/6Z model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 The 12z HRRR is way south and weak, a continuation of the trend. The Euro is going the same direction. This may be the second consecutive winter storm warning here that busts bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 6 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: The 12z HRRR is way south and weak, a continuation of the trend. The Euro is going the same direction. This may be the second consecutive winter storm warning here that busts bad. a more upbeat take is Alek's call is in trouble. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 29 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: The 12z HRRR is way south and weak, a continuation of the trend. The Euro is going the same direction. This may be the second consecutive winter storm warning here that busts bad. GFS has slipped a bit south, but is still a north outlier. Euro is south in and represents a good blend of the GFS & HRRR. 12Z NAM having its issues with snowfall depiction, but looking in line with the Euro. Baum really working this one back to $$ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 LOT: "There are other factors, though, that could play a role in limiting how much snow we`ll get compared to what most model guidance is currently advertising, including the aforementioned dry slot preventing complete saturation of the dendritic growth zone (resulting in poorer quality snowflakes and lower snow-to- liquid ratios) and the possibility of convection to our south limiting much moisture will reach our latitude. Also worth noting is that setups similar to this one featuring a positively-tilted trough and a not overly deep low have also underperformed here in the past when other mitigating factors such as dry slots and moisture robbing have been involved." 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 33 minutes ago, Baum said: a more upbeat take is Alek's call is in trouble. surfaces are torching, gonna be white rain in the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 4 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: LOT: "There are other factors, though, that could play a role in limiting how much snow we`ll get compared to what most model guidance is currently advertising, including the aforementioned dry slot preventing complete saturation of the dendritic growth zone (resulting in poorer quality snowflakes and lower snow-to- liquid ratios) and the possibility of convection to our south limiting much moisture will reach our latitude. Also worth noting is that setups similar to this one featuring a positively-tilted trough and a not overly deep low have also underperformed here in the past when other mitigating factors such as dry slots and moisture robbing have been involved." LOT with standard CYA jargon. There is a caveat with virtually any set up. Throw down your cards and play or leave the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 6 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: surfaces are torching, gonna be white rain in the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 sorry friend i don't make the rules 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 30 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: GFS has slipped a bit south, but is still a north outlier. Euro is south in and represents a good blend of the GFS & HRRR. 12Z NAM having its issues with snowfall depiction, but looking in line with the Euro. Baum really working this one back to $$ Even DTW NW side at least getting it in on some action. Was not expecting expecting that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 43 minutes ago, Baum said: LOT with standard CYA jargon. There is a caveat with virtually any set up. Throw down your cards and play or leave the table. I folded long ago, so kudos to those who are staying to see the flop. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaryWarren Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 tfw the dendritic growth zone doesn't become completely saturated 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 This is one of the rare times that I'm not even attempting a precip type call for my backyard for tomorrow morning into the afternoon. So good luck to the NWS. I do think there will be enough snow to accumulate. And then the lake effect aspect could get a bit interesting, but the main focus of that may end up farther east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 Here we received 0.84” of precip from the latest system yesterday. Models were pumping out 0.75-1.25” with the trend increasing until game time. Just an observation fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 I assure you that we're in mid February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 Final call: Cold rain, freezing drizzle, dab of sleet, inch of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 12z Euro... at least it's no worse for me than the last run. I'm sure DVN does not want to issue a warning and then cancel it 12 hours later for the second consecutive storm, but there is not much justification for the winter storm warning from Cedar Rapids to Dubuque now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Mike Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 52 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: 12z Euro... at least it's no worse for me than the last run. I'm sure DVN does not want to issue a warning and then cancel it 12 hours later for the second consecutive storm, but there is not much justification for the winter storm warning from Cedar Rapids to Dubuque now. As we get this close should be put more focus on the models like the HRRR and others that are better in this close timeframe then the longer range models ? Just asking due to my ignorance. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 12z Euro... at least it's no worse for me than the last run. I'm sure DVN does not want to issue a warning and then cancel it 12 hours later for the second consecutive storm, but there is not much justification for the winter storm warning from Cedar Rapids to Dubuque now. They didn't have to issue a warning this morning. Could have waited to make the call on the day shift today. My observation is that they as an office feel like they have to make decisions earlier than they need to and sometimes unnecessarily lock themselves into these situations. Hopefully it works out. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 I don't necessarily buy it, but the 18z RAP extrapolated would be virtually all snow for Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 18z HRRR is absolute hammertime with lake effect around here as a well organized band stalls out. Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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