Baum Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 LOT issues a WSW for northern tier of counties. Board shrugs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 A little tricky on the ptype forecast/placement, but there's certainly a non-zero chance that somewhere in Chicago metro gets a fair bit of icy precip in the form of sleet/zr (this may even be down to I-80). I would assume that any freezing rain would tend to be on colder/elevated surfaces given the mild stretch that we've been in and marginal temps while that precip type is in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 25 minutes ago, Baum said: LOT issues a WSW for northern tier of counties. Board shrugs. I relate to your frustration. For me personally, it's not that exciting since it's still winter the last I checked...and any snow that falls will melt in two days. It's fine for this to happen on 11/15 or 3/15, but not mid-Feb. And, the heaviest (while not 100% certain) will likely be north of mby. The pattern next week could get interesting, but unfortunately we're getting to the point in the season where you really need a great pattern to continue in order to keep the snow around. I know my reply is drenched in cynicism and pessimism, and I applaud your optimism. But that's what years and years of horrible winters do to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 wow!!! thats a big number ILZ003>005-008-150400- /O.NEW.KLOT.WS.A.0001.230216T0900Z-230217T0300Z/ Winnebago-Boone-McHenry-Ogle- Including the cities of Rockford, Belvidere, Crystal Lake, Algonquin, McHenry, Woodstock, Rochelle, Oregon, and Byron 154 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2023 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations in excess of 6 inches are possible, along with some minor ice accumulations. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Winnebago, Boone, McHenry and Ogle Counties. * WHEN...From late Wednesday night through Thursday evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slick, snow covered roads. The hazardous conditions are likely to impact both the morning and evening commutes on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 25 minutes ago, Baum said: LOT issues a WSW for northern tier of counties. Board shrugs. miss north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 1 minute ago, A-L-E-K said: miss north You still rolling with DAB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 14, 2023 Author Share Posted February 14, 2023 18Z NAMs say wagons south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 6 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: miss north the disappearance of Hardy Palm guy confirms 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 1 minute ago, madwx said: 18Z NAMs say wagons south has always been weak and south...no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 14, 2023 Author Share Posted February 14, 2023 4 minutes ago, Baum said: has always been weak and south...no? yeah but they are even more south now. before the northern edge of the defo band was around MSN. Now it's Janesville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 8 minutes ago, Baum said: has always been weak and south...no? Somebody stop me... but I'm actually getting just a little bullish on this one especially in the northern 1/2 or so of the metro. It appears like there will be a period of decent rates and temps may fall below 30 during that time. This would help to counteract the recent warmth. I could imagine advisory snowfall amounts south of where LOT currently has the watch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 Maybe it's the NAM being the NAM at this range but even SBN gets in on some wintry precip and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 Josh snow magnet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 2 minutes ago, Lightning said: Josh snow magnet The only problem with that is I'm headed North early Thursday morning. Lol but the magnet will be ready for the following week. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 30 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Somebody stop me... but I'm actually getting just a little bullish on this one especially in the northern 1/2 or so of the metro. It appears like there will be a period of decent rates and temps may fall below 30 during that time. This would help to counteract the recent warmth. I could imagine advisory snowfall amounts south of where LOT currently has the watch. DuPage County: THURSDAY RAIN, FREEZING RAIN, SNOW AND SLEET LIKELY IN THE MORNING, THEN SNOW, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. ICE ACCUMULATION AROUND A TRACE. BLUSTERY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT. LOT thinking same it seems. Guessing LOT/MKE didn't see eye to eye on WSW issuance. Milwaukee going 5-7 in SE Zones yet no watch. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 GRR is thinking some higher amounts also but held off on any advisories/watches also. Farther north...roughly north of a Grand Haven to Mount Pleasant line, we`re looking at all snow. Decent fgen was noted in the 850- 700mb layer from 18z Thursday to 00z Friday and this roughly coincides with the trowal axis. It`s certainly possible we could see 6-8 inches of snow in this area prior to the snow ending Thursday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 3 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Just some minor noise. Still wildly apart on the 18z runs. Both are probably easy tosses, as they say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 I think Baum ran the 21z RAP out of his basement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 26 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I think Baum ran the 21z RAP out of his basement. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 15, 2023 Author Share Posted February 15, 2023 18z GFS is holding strong with its north and stronger solution. 18z Euro is definitely caving to drier and a bit more south 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 Trying to reel it in down this way 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 I think we need to get this current system out of the way to first.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 1 hour ago, cyclone77 said: Trying to reel it in down this way I think you're sitting pretty good for this one. Probably could be your biggest snow of season. But that isn't saying much this year. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 Slight change from 18z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 Nice of it to finally start to wake up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 Just now, Hoosier said: Nice of it to finally start to wake up. showed quite a bit of ice i think as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 3 minutes ago, Baum said: showed quite a bit of ice i think as well. The freezing rain accumulation map does have quite a bit, yes. Posting that map would be a good way to freak out the general public lol. In reality, there's no way that much ice would actually accrete because the rates are too heavy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 57 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The freezing rain accumulation map does have quite a bit, yes. Posting that map would be a good way to freak out the general public lol. In reality, there's no way that much ice would actually accrete because the rates are too heavy. This past ice storm we suffered through down in south central Texas, we had 31 degree temps within a very shallow (1000 foot deep) layer of arctic air but freezing drizzle fell so hard for at least two days, that we ended up a sixteenth or two of an inch short of three quarter inch ice accretions. Many branches snapped, including one on an oak tree that was nearly a foot thick! I was out of power for 5 days. We also had a shower of moderate to heavy ZR that somehow accreted. We just couldnt buy latent heat release. When it rains, it pours supercooled water here in south Texas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 3 minutes ago, Jebman said: This past ice storm we suffered through down in south central Texas, we had 31 degree temps within a very shallow (1000 foot deep) layer of arctic air but freezing drizzle fell so hard for at least two days, that we ended up a sixteenth of two of an inch short of three quarter inch ice accretions. Many branches snapped, including one on an oak tree that was nearly a foot thick! I was out of power for 5 days. We also had a shower of moderate to heavy ZR that somehow accreted. We just couldnt buy latent heat release. When it rains, it pours supercooled water here in south Texas. Different situation than what the 00z NAM is advertising. It has like a half inch of precip in 3 hours in some areas. A good amount of that wouldn't freeze, especially since temps are marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 15, 2023 Author Share Posted February 15, 2023 0z GFS continues the very slow SE shift with that model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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