2/16/23 Winter Storm

[madwx]

Will this be the answer to N Illinois' prayers?  Will it hit the DBQ-MSN-OSH corridor again?  will it get sheared out and go far SE and weak?  Stayed tuned here for the answers

[Malacka11]

TBH if it's not at least six inches I really don't want it. Go big or go futility.

Edit: Yes, that's what she said. 

[ILSNOW]

from our friends at NWS

Farther to the northwest, a southwest to northeastward oriented
baroclinic zone is expected to set up over far northwestern IL and
adjacent areas of southern WI and eastern IA Wednesday into
Wednesday night following the departure of the potent storm system
tracking across the Upper Midwest Tuesday night. This baroclinic
zone is likely to foster a band of moderate to possibly heavy band
of accumulating snow late Wednesday night into Thursday as
strengthening mid-level deformation along the systems
northwestern periphery induces a rather healthy band of
frontogenesis beneath the entrance region of an upper jet.
Questions still remain on which exact areas this band of
accumulating snow will occur, but current indications would
support this roughly along and southwest to northeastern corridor
from northern MO and southern and eastern IA through far northern
parts of IL (north of I-88) into WI. There is also a threat of a
light wintry mix of freezing rain and sleet just south of the
heavier band of snow, and this wintry mix could fall across parts
of the I-80 and I-88 corridors (including parts of the Chicago
metro area) Thursday morning. Overall, this system does not look
to be a major snow or ice maker for the area, but with the
potential for a few inches of snow to fall

[Baum]

dammit.

 

[Malacka11]

  On 2/13/2023 at 9:13 PM, ILSNOW said:

from our friends at NWS

Farther to the northwest, a southwest to northeastward oriented
baroclinic zone is expected to set up over far northwestern IL and
adjacent areas of southern WI and eastern IA Wednesday into
Wednesday night following the departure of the potent storm system
tracking across the Upper Midwest Tuesday night. This baroclinic
zone is likely to foster a band of moderate to possibly heavy band
of accumulating snow late Wednesday night into Thursday as
strengthening mid-level deformation along the systems
northwestern periphery induces a rather healthy band of
frontogenesis beneath the entrance region of an upper jet.
Questions still remain on which exact areas this band of
accumulating snow will occur, but current indications would
support this roughly along and southwest to northeastern corridor
from northern MO and southern and eastern IA through far northern
parts of IL (north of I-88) into WI. There is also a threat of a
light wintry mix of freezing rain and sleet just south of the
heavier band of snow, and this wintry mix could fall across parts
of the I-80 and I-88 corridors (including parts of the Chicago
metro area) Thursday morning. Overall, this system does not look
to be a major snow or ice maker for the area, but with the
potential for a few inches of snow to fall

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Where'd you get this from before they actually posted it?

[Hoosier]

  On 2/13/2023 at 9:02 PM, Malacka11 said:

TBH if it's not at least six inches I really don't want it. Go big or go futility.

Edit: Yes, that's what she said. 

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I'm not sure there is a feasible way for this to be a 6+ storm in the area.  The trough is so positive tilt, which can produce a good snow sometimes, but this is also pretty progressive overall.

[ILSNOW]

  On 2/13/2023 at 9:26 PM, Malacka11 said:

Where'd you get this from before they actually posted it?

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Went there and it was posted.

[michsnowfreak]

  On 2/13/2023 at 9:02 PM, Malacka11 said:

TBH if it's not at least six inches I really don't want it. Go big or go futility.

Edit: Yes, that's what she said. 

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Chicago has already passed their futility record though

[Malacka11]

  On 2/13/2023 at 9:32 PM, Hoosier said:

I'm not sure there is a feasible way for this to be a 6+ storm in the area.  The trough is so positive tilt, which can produce a good snow sometimes, but this is also pretty progressive overall.

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If the snow could at least stick around until maybe another chance next week, then I'd be more enthusiastic but that's not gonna happen so...

[Malacka11]

  On 2/13/2023 at 9:34 PM, ILSNOW said:

Went there and it was posted.

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Oof, that's odd. I've been sitting here refreshing it every few minutes and it didn't show up until like ten minutes after you posted it. That makes sense though, not the first time that something like this seems to have happened 

[Malacka11]

  On 2/13/2023 at 9:35 PM, michsnowfreak said:

Chicago has already passed their futility record though

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Touche but honestly I've been enjoying the near fifty and sunny we've had the last few days. I guess if it's a solid thumping I'd take it but 

[Hoosier]

  On 2/13/2023 at 9:35 PM, Malacka11 said:

If the snow could at least stick around until maybe another chance next week, then I'd be more enthusiastic but that's not gonna happen so...

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Exactly

I guess I'll clarify my other post.  I do think it's not out of the question for this to produce at least 6" somewhere, but it would require that it's not a strung out piece of garbage to the tune of the 18z NAM.  And in that case, the main snow band would likely end up north of Chicago.

[ILSNOW]

  On 2/13/2023 at 9:49 PM, Hoosier said:

Exactly

I guess I'll clarify my other post.  I do think it's not out of the question for this to produce at least 6" somewhere, but it would require that it's not a strung out piece of garbage to the tune of the 18z NAM.  And in that case, the main snow band would likely end up north of Chicago.

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as 18z GFS shows

 

[A-L-E-K]

  On 2/13/2023 at 9:35 PM, michsnowfreak said:

Chicago has already passed their futility record though

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Slant sticking imo

[Baum]

that moment when you realize Chi Storm posting "southeast and weaker" after every model run as the storm approaches is your only friend.

[Chicago Storm]

  On 2/13/2023 at 10:09 PM, Baum said:

that moment when you realize Chi Storm posting "southeast and weaker" after every model run as the storm approaches is your only friend.

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most ens are weak/se and fairly uneventful, so there's that for ya.

[michsnowfreak]

  On 2/13/2023 at 10:07 PM, A-L-E-K said:

Slant sticking imo

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I don't pay close attention to Chicago but I would assume there's been less on the lakeshore than ORD. 

[SchaumburgStormer]

  On 2/13/2023 at 10:09 PM, Baum said:

that moment when you realize Chi Storm posting "southeast and weaker" after every model run as the storm approaches is your only friend.

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[Hoosier]

  On 2/13/2023 at 10:18 PM, michsnowfreak said:

I don't pay close attention to Chicago but I would assume there's been less on the lakeshore than ORD. 

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That's a good assumption.  I can clearly remember some days that produced less around downtown than ORD, and there hasn't really been a lake enhanced event of any significance to make up for that.  

[Hoosier]

By this winter's standards, there's a decent airmass dumping in on the tail end and behind this storm.  With lake temps running above average, could get a respectable lake response for a time especially in IN/MI.

[hawkeye_wx]

The UK and Euro have juiced back up this evening as the energy is not as flat as on this morning's runs.  Madison is really on a roll.

[Baum]

the take outta beer town:

THE ONE CAVEAT IS THERE HAS BEEN A TREND FURTHER SOUTH AND IF   
THIS TREND CONTINUES WE COULD SEE LESS AND LESS SNOW POTENTIAL IN  
THE CWA. WITH A PHASING SYSTEM SUCH AS THIS THERE IS A LOT OF   
UNCERTAINTY AS THE TRACK CAN GO FROM SLAMMING SOUTHERN WISCONSIN   
TO BEING A COMPLETE MISS (USUALLY TO THE SOUTH). BUT AT THIS POINT  
IT REMAINS A POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT EVENT.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Madison is going to pass up MSP on seasonal snowfall at this rate.

[SchaumburgStormer]

NAM continues to be very uninspiring for this one. 

[madwx]

GFS continues to give S WI over 12" on kuchera ratios and over 7" in positive snow depth change.  Can't see how this will be a warning criteria storm here.  Looks like a slight SE trend on the Euro over the past few runs

[hawkeye_wx]

The Canadian has been MIA so far, but has finally joined the party.

[hawkeye_wx]

  On 2/14/2023 at 4:08 PM, madwx said:

GFS continues to give S WI over 12" on kuchera ratios and over 7" in positive snow depth change.  Can't see how this will be a warning criteria storm here.  Looks like a slight SE trend on the Euro over the past few runs

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The op GFS is on drugs and has been for several runs.  It's way too wet, and also a good bit north of the GEFS mean.

Here is the much more rational GEFS.

 

[Baum]

  On 2/14/2023 at 4:22 PM, hawkeye_wx said:

The Canadian has been MIA so far, but has finally joined the party.

 

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go Canucks.

[Hoosier]

Quite the laughable difference between the GFS and NAM.

[SchaumburgStormer]

  On 2/14/2023 at 5:14 PM, Hoosier said:

Quite the laughable difference between the GFS and NAM.

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Just some minor noise.