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2/16/23 Winter Storm


madwx
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from our friends at NWS

Farther to the northwest, a southwest to northeastward oriented
baroclinic zone is expected to set up over far northwestern IL and
adjacent areas of southern WI and eastern IA Wednesday into
Wednesday night following the departure of the potent storm system
tracking across the Upper Midwest Tuesday night. This baroclinic
zone is likely to foster a band of moderate to possibly heavy band
of accumulating snow late Wednesday night into Thursday as
strengthening mid-level deformation along the systems
northwestern periphery induces a rather healthy band of
frontogenesis beneath the entrance region of an upper jet.
Questions still remain on which exact areas this band of
accumulating snow will occur, but current indications would
support this roughly along and southwest to northeastern corridor
from northern MO and southern and eastern IA through far northern
parts of IL (north of I-88) into WI. There is also a threat of a
light wintry mix of freezing rain and sleet just south of the
heavier band of snow, and this wintry mix could fall across parts
of the I-80 and I-88 corridors (including parts of the Chicago
metro area) Thursday morning. Overall, this system does not look
to be a major snow or ice maker for the area, but with the
potential for a few inches of snow to fall
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13 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

from our friends at NWS

Farther to the northwest, a southwest to northeastward oriented
baroclinic zone is expected to set up over far northwestern IL and
adjacent areas of southern WI and eastern IA Wednesday into
Wednesday night following the departure of the potent storm system
tracking across the Upper Midwest Tuesday night. This baroclinic
zone is likely to foster a band of moderate to possibly heavy band
of accumulating snow late Wednesday night into Thursday as
strengthening mid-level deformation along the systems
northwestern periphery induces a rather healthy band of
frontogenesis beneath the entrance region of an upper jet.
Questions still remain on which exact areas this band of
accumulating snow will occur, but current indications would
support this roughly along and southwest to northeastern corridor
from northern MO and southern and eastern IA through far northern
parts of IL (north of I-88) into WI. There is also a threat of a
light wintry mix of freezing rain and sleet just south of the
heavier band of snow, and this wintry mix could fall across parts
of the I-80 and I-88 corridors (including parts of the Chicago
metro area) Thursday morning. Overall, this system does not look
to be a major snow or ice maker for the area, but with the
potential for a few inches of snow to fall

Where'd you get this from before they actually posted it?

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27 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

TBH if it's not at least six inches I really don't want it. Go big or go futility.

Edit: Yes, that's what she said. 

I'm not sure there is a feasible way for this to be a 6+ storm in the area.  The trough is so positive tilt, which can produce a good snow sometimes, but this is also pretty progressive overall.

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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

I'm not sure there is a feasible way for this to be a 6+ storm in the area.  The trough is so positive tilt, which can produce a good snow sometimes, but this is also pretty progressive overall.

If the snow could at least stick around until maybe another chance next week, then I'd be more enthusiastic but that's not gonna happen so...

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3 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

Went there and it was posted.

Oof, that's odd. I've been sitting here refreshing it every few minutes and it didn't show up until like ten minutes after you posted it. That makes sense though, not the first time that something like this seems to have happened 

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11 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

If the snow could at least stick around until maybe another chance next week, then I'd be more enthusiastic but that's not gonna happen so...

Exactly

I guess I'll clarify my other post.  I do think it's not out of the question for this to produce at least 6" somewhere, but it would require that it's not a strung out piece of garbage to the tune of the 18z NAM.  And in that case, the main snow band would likely end up north of Chicago.

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5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Exactly

I guess I'll clarify my other post.  I do think it's not out of the question for this to produce at least 6" somewhere, but it would require that it's not a strung out piece of garbage to the tune of the 18z NAM.  And in that case, the main snow band would likely end up north of Chicago.

as 18z GFS shows

 

snku_acc-imp.us_mw.png

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46 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I don't pay close attention to Chicago but I would assume there's been less on the lakeshore than ORD. 

That's a good assumption.  I can clearly remember some days that produced less around downtown than ORD, and there hasn't really been a lake enhanced event of any significance to make up for that.  

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the take outta beer town:

THE ONE CAVEAT IS THERE HAS BEEN A TREND FURTHER SOUTH AND IF   
THIS TREND CONTINUES WE COULD SEE LESS AND LESS SNOW POTENTIAL IN  
THE CWA. WITH A PHASING SYSTEM SUCH AS THIS THERE IS A LOT OF   
UNCERTAINTY AS THE TRACK CAN GO FROM SLAMMING SOUTHERN WISCONSIN   
TO BEING A COMPLETE MISS (USUALLY TO THE SOUTH). BUT AT THIS POINT  
IT REMAINS A POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT EVENT.

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20 minutes ago, madwx said:

GFS continues to give S WI over 12" on kuchera ratios and over 7" in positive snow depth change.  Can't see how this will be a warning criteria storm here.  Looks like a slight SE trend on the Euro over the past few runs

The op GFS is on drugs and has been for several runs.  It's way too wet, and also a good bit north of the GEFS mean.

Here is the much more rational GEFS.

image.thumb.png.fe3f8934d6e6124ac5e92b5580b9466f.png

 

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