DanLarsen34 Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 Thought it’d be a good idea to start a thread now on the looming threat of severe weather coming up on Wednesday and Thursday next week. Looks like we could be dealing with back-to-back days of significant severe weather from Texas to the gulf coast. We may need to expand the time frame of the thread to the 20th and 21st as well if models continue to show the potential for a major event, although that’s still a long ways out. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/ . 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKTWISTER Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 SPC Surface dewpoints will probably reach the lower-mid 60s in the Arklatex on Wednesday into Wednesday night. Model variability and greater confidence and a farther-west edge of low-level moisture/surface low placement in the southern Great Plains necessitated a shift of the severe probabilities west on Wednesday (day 5). Once model spread is reduced, a 30-percent severe area will likely be introduced. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 Models took a dump on this as they usually do with any high-end looking severe or winter wx setup inside of 7-8 days, even if they were consistent/in agreement with it outside of that range. That said there will still be some severe weather Wednesday and Thursday, but no longer looking like anything exceptional. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 7 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said: Models took a dump on this as they usually do with any high-end looking severe or winter wx setup inside of 7-8 days, even if they were consistent/in agreement with it outside of that range. That said there will still be some severe weather Wednesday and Thursday, but no longer looking like anything exceptional. I posted in the TX/OK thread last week on this. At the time, GFS/Euro and ensembles had the trough going negative tilt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 A hatched hail area has been added to the day 2 outlook for DFW. Otherwise the probs are 15% Hail / 15% wind / 5% tornado. Surprising enough, getting a bit of an appetizer right now with quite a bit of lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 8 hours ago, Powerball said: A hatched hail area has been added to the day 2 outlook for DFW. Otherwise the probs are 15% Hail / 15% wind / 5% tornado. Surprising enough, getting a bit of an appetizer right now with quite a bit of lightning. Now it's gone. From the new day 2 update 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanLarsen34 Posted February 15, 2023 Author Share Posted February 15, 2023 Thread has been a little quiet, but today and tomorrow could still be quite active. Looks like the greatest threat for discrete supercells capable of producing tornadoes today will be across eastern Arkansas and Mississippi this evening and overnight. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 Giant ENH area for Day 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 Well outside even the Marginal Risk area in Houston, but the storms after midnight, despite being after midnight, have decent instability. Odd kink in hodo (veer-back-veer) says tornado threat near nil, but the middle level lapse rates don't look terrible. I'd think hail might be possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 These cells on the HRRR are in the 10% tornado risk zone, near Memphis, late at night. The soundings on the HRRR show STP (effective) of 2.7-3.4 right next to those near Memphis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 Mesoscale Discussion 0150 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2023 Areas affected...central North Texas into the south-central and southeastern Oklahoma vicinity Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 152120Z - 152215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Risk for severe storms -- including potential for a a tornado or two -- is forecast to steadily increase over the next few hours as the atmosphere destabilizes. WW issuance will likely be required in the next one to two hours. DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows shallow low-level moisture continuing to stream north-northwestward across central and southeastern Texas toward North Texas. Dewpoints are now into the mid 50s at the Red River, and near 60 into the Metroplex, but with a fairly substantial cap still evident in a recent (21Z) FWD (Fort Worth) RAOB. Still, as the upper system now centered near the Four Corners (per WV imagery) continues moving eastward, increasing ascent (hinted at by high-based CU developing over western North Texas) should continue to erode the cap, eventually resulting in surface-based storm development. With steep lapse rates evident aloft, and a kinematic environment featuring flow that veers from south-southeasterly to southwesterly through 6km, and increases substantially in magnitude through this layer, potential for supercells -- particularly with initial storm development -- and an attendant risk for large hail is evident. Where truly surface-based storms may develop -- i.e. mainly from the Red River vicinity southward, a tornado or two will also be possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 SEL3 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 33 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 345 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and eastern Oklahoma North Texas * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 345 PM until 1000 PM CST. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorms are expected to develop and increase in coverage over the next couple of hours. These storms will spread northeast with an attendant threat for large to very large hail and damaging gusts. A tornado or two may be possible this evening closer to the Red River. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles north northwest of Mcalester OK to 15 miles southeast of Fort Worth TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Leitman/Thompson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CryHavoc Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 16 hours ago, weatherextreme said: Mesoscale Discussion 0150 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2023 Areas affected...central North Texas into the south-central and southeastern Oklahoma vicinity Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 152120Z - 152215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Risk for severe storms -- including potential for a a tornado or two -- is forecast to steadily increase over the next few hours as the atmosphere destabilizes. WW issuance will likely be required in the next one to two hours. DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows shallow low-level moisture continuing to stream north-northwestward across central and southeastern Texas toward North Texas. Dewpoints are now into the mid 50s at the Red River, and near 60 into the Metroplex, but with a fairly substantial cap still evident in a recent (21Z) FWD (Fort Worth) RAOB. Still, as the upper system now centered near the Four Corners (per WV imagery) continues moving eastward, increasing ascent (hinted at by high-based CU developing over western North Texas) should continue to erode the cap, eventually resulting in surface-based storm development. With steep lapse rates evident aloft, and a kinematic environment featuring flow that veers from south-southeasterly to southwesterly through 6km, and increases substantially in magnitude through this layer, potential for supercells -- particularly with initial storm development -- and an attendant risk for large hail is evident. Where truly surface-based storms may develop -- i.e. mainly from the Red River vicinity southward, a tornado or two will also be possible. Welp, it was certainly a bust for DFW. Most areas didn't even see precipitation... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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