eyewall Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Time to look ahead to next year. It is a long wait but it couldn't go any worse than this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 Good bye to La Nina! I think we have had enough of SE ridges. Let's hope for a weak El Nino. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted July 5, 2023 Share Posted July 5, 2023 What's a good Nino signal for next year for the southeast? I think no more than moderate. Maybe 1.5-1.75?? Asking the experts. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted July 6, 2023 Share Posted July 6, 2023 I believe we want a moderate east-based Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted July 6, 2023 Share Posted July 6, 2023 20 hours ago, cbmclean said: I believe we want a moderate east west-based Nino. FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 7, 2023 Share Posted July 7, 2023 On 7/5/2023 at 3:44 PM, CaryWx said: What's a good Nino signal for next year for the southeast? I think no more than moderate. Maybe 1.5-1.75?? Asking the experts. Thanks RONI (Relative ONI) takes into account how warm Nino 3.4 is in relation to the worldwide tropical waters, which are currently very warm. As a result, the RONI of AMJ of 2023 was 0.4 lower than ONI and it was ~0.3 lower in recent trimonths. Wx patterns supposedly correlate better to RONI than to ONI. So, folks maybe should consider subtracting ~0.3 to 0.4 off the expected ONI peak and compare to prior RONI peaks to get a better idea of how this winter may turn out. RONI: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt There have been two winters on record with ~2.0 RONI peak that were quite cold in the SE, 1957-8 and 1965-6. Also, 1972-3 and 1982-3 both had historic winter storms and they peaked way up at 2.2 to 2.5 per RONI. Right now, my thinking is that a strong ONI peak is most likely with high end moderate and low end super less likely. Subtract a few tenths from that to get the most likely RONI conversion although the ONI/RONI relationship is always changing. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 If this is it, please let me know. Cuz if this is snow you better let me know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 On 7/15/2023 at 9:00 PM, Wow said: If this is it, please let me know. Cuz if this is snow you better let me know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Occluded Front Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 There have been two winters on record with ~2.0 RONI peak that were quite cold in the SE, 1957-8 and 1965-6. Also, 1972-3 and 1982-3 both had historic winter storms and they peaked way up at 2.2 to 2.5 per RONI. I was born in March of 57 so I can't say much on that other than they were good years but I do remember the 72-73 winter pretty well in the upstate of SC as I had short sleeves to start out the day,not sure it was Dec or mid Jan but just got out of class at school and was pumping gas in my car, just 16 and not long had gotten my drivers license. Long story short an Artic cold came through town with such strong winds that traffic signals fell, trees blew over, I helped chase a mans toupee across the parking lot. In the time it took me to pump gas, pay for it get back in car and get home about 40 mins temps were below freezing and snow had began to fall. We probably talking a 40 degree temp drop in a short time. I never will forget that day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmoon Posted July 18, 2023 Share Posted July 18, 2023 7 hours ago, Occluded Front said: There have been two winters on record with ~2.0 RONI peak that were quite cold in the SE, 1957-8 and 1965-6. Also, 1972-3 and 1982-3 both had historic winter storms and they peaked way up at 2.2 to 2.5 per RONI. I was born in March of 57 so I can't say much on that other than they were good years but I do remember the 72-73 winter pretty well in the upstate of SC as I had short sleeves to start out the day,not sure it was Dec or mid Jan but just got out of class at school and was pumping gas in my car, just 16 and not long had gotten my drivers license. Long story short an Artic cold came through town with such strong winds that traffic signals fell, trees blew over, I helped chase a mans toupee across the parking lot. In the time it took me to pump gas, pay for it get back in car and get home about 40 mins temps were below freezing and snow had began to fall. We probably talking a 40 degree temp drop in a short time. I never will forget that day. Awesome story. That was a big time arctic front right there. Wish I would of been around to experience it. That's the stuff that gets me through these hot and humid summers. Love those old winter storys. Hoping to add some new ones this winter hopefully. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 1, 2023 Share Posted August 1, 2023 Although it jumps around a lot and isn't at all reliable, especially this far out, it is fun to note that the new CANSIPS is calling for the coldest DJFM for a good portion of the SE since 2013-4. It has the SE US with about the coldest anomaly in the entire world then. With this being El Niño, that chance is enhanced and it probably has a lot to do with why the model shows it that chilly. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gman Posted August 3, 2023 Share Posted August 3, 2023 WYFF’s Chris Justice has his own new YouTube Channel. He is coming out with this detailed winter discussion at the end of this week. In the second part of this video (at the 10 minute mark), he discusses the possibility of snow for the southeast this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gman Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpbart Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 A fun scenario to think about on one of the hottest days of the year. If would be fun if we got the central SC heavy snow (4+") unicorn event. Still after so much disappointment I remain quite skeptical. I am also buying a lottery ticket because you just need it to happen once to declare victory in these parts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 Looking ahead to the possible effects on SE winters 2024-5 through 2028-9 from the January of 2022 Tonga volcano, the chance of a multiyear El Niño MAY be enhanced while the volcano still has influence, especially during 2025-9. Note how the DJF temperature anomaly pattern over the US in figure 7a comes rather close to a typical El Niño, including the cool SE and mild NW. Also, note especially figure 11d, which shows an El Ninolike Pacific SSTa pattern: "The MiMA simulations confirm the robustness of the SWV-induced wave structure in the Pacific (Fig. 11ef), and they produce tropical surface temperature anomalies consistent with an El Nino-like pattern (Fig. 11a-d). This heating is produced by the zonally asymmetric distribution of SWV in the tropics, and consistent with the increased surface downward longwave flux over the tropical Pacific in WACCM (Fig. 9a). Thus, it is possible that the SWV forcing from the eruption would favor a positive phase of ENSO on a multi-year timescale, but further work is required to confirm this, in particular with a model including fully interactive ocean and cloud feedbacks." https://www.researchgate.net/publication/372889143_Long-term_surface_impact_of_Hunga_Tonga-Hunga_Ha'apai-like_stratospheric_water_vapor_injection 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted August 18, 2023 Share Posted August 18, 2023 Good analysis on Tennessee upcoming winter forum for those interested. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted September 14, 2023 Share Posted September 14, 2023 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted September 14, 2023 Share Posted September 14, 2023 Ok what is with all the wooly worms?? I have lived here in the Triad for 22 years and not once have I found wooly worms just crawling around my driveway. They are everywhere!! Is this just a local infestation or is mother nature trying to tell me to buy a snowblower?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Occluded Front Posted September 15, 2023 Share Posted September 15, 2023 19 hours ago, kvegas-wx said: Ok what is with all the wooly worms?? I have lived here in the Triad for 22 years and not once have I found wooly worms just crawling around my driveway. They are everywhere!! Is this just a local infestation or is mother nature trying to tell me to buy a snowblower?? I wonder the same thing about all these pine cones, can't see the grass for pine cones all over the place and for what its worth the lack of spider webs the last 2 months is strange and the ones that I do find are about 3 foot off the ground and not high like usually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted September 15, 2023 Share Posted September 15, 2023 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 We need a couple more high caliber tropical fish systems to remove some of that octane from the atlantic and let that west based moderate nino happen, then add just bit of blocking #ibelieve #itsgonnahappen 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 Super Ultra Mega Generational Nino on the way to rain (literally) on everyone's parade for the next two years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 10 hours ago, Jonathan said: Super Ultra Mega Generational Nino on the way to rain (literally) on everyone's parade for the next two years. I didn't think this comment was serious at first, but after reading it again I see you added "ultra". Now I'm quite concerned. I plan on adding a canoe and waders to my disaster supplies. I will also go ahead and sell my snow plow blade on Facebook Marketplace while prices are high. Thank you for this information! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 I usually don't renew my subscription with weatherbell until November 1st, but I reaaaaallllly want to start it early. The lack of frozen something to track hangover struggle is real 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 30, 2023 Share Posted September 30, 2023 El Niño Oct PNA: Strong +PNA: 53, 65, 79, 15 Mod +PNA: 63, 76, 77, 86, 87, 14 Weak +PNA: 57, 68, 69, 09 Neutral PNA: 51, 58, 94, 18 Weak -PNA: 97 Mod -PNA: 82, 02, 06 Strong -PNA: 72, 91, 04 SE US from coldest to warmest Nino winters 57, 63, 65, 69, 76, 77, 09: cold 68, 86, 87, 02, 14: cool 58, 72, 79, 82, 04: NN 94, 97, 06: mild 51, 53, 91, 15, 18: warm ——————— Correlation of Oct PNA to SE US winter for Nino -25% of the 4 strong +PNA (+1+) in Oct followed by cool to cold SE winter- A whopping 100% of the 10 weak to moderate +PNA (+0.25 to +0.99) in Oct followed by cold to cool SE winters - None of the 4 neutral PNA (-0.24 to +0.24) in Oct followed by cool to cold SE winter - 14% of the 7 -PNA (<-0.24) in Oct followed by cool to cold SE winter - So, only 13% of the 15 Octs that had either strong +PNA, neutral PNA, or -PNA followed by cool to cold SE winters - So, sweet spot by far for best shot at cool to cold SE Nino winters is Oct PNA of +0.25 to +0.99. Needless to say after just today discovering this, I’ll be rooting very hard for a +0.25 to +0.99 PNA in Oct! ** The data I’m basing this on is from the monthly PNA table seen at the 1st link below as opposed to the dailies (2nd link). That’s important to note because the monthlies average ~twice the amplitude of the dailies’ average. ———————— Today’s GEFS PNA prog for Oct 1-14 based on dailies is ~+0.6. However, keep in mind that the absolute value of the corresponding monthly amplitude averages ~twice as high as what the dailies would suggest. So, in this case, the equiv for the first half of Oct could easily be ~+1.2. That bodes very well for the chances of this full Oct’s PNA coming in as a +PNA when the monthly is released. But hopefully it would come in within the +0.25 to +0.99 interval so as to hit the sweet spot for the chances of a cool to cold winter: Monthly PNA (higher amp vs avg of dailies): https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table Daily PNA (lower amp vs monthly): https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.pna.index.b500101.current.ascii 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted October 2, 2023 Share Posted October 2, 2023 On 9/30/2023 at 5:13 PM, GaWx said: El Niño Oct PNA: Strong +PNA: 53, 65, 79, 15 Mod +PNA: 63, 76, 77, 86, 87, 14 Weak +PNA: 57, 68, 69, 09 Neutral PNA: 51, 58, 94, 18 Weak -PNA: 97 Mod -PNA: 82, 02, 06 Strong -PNA: 72, 91, 04 SE US from coldest to warmest Nino winters 57, 63, 65, 69, 76, 77, 09: cold 68, 86, 87, 02, 14: cool 58, 72, 79, 82, 04: NN 94, 97, 06: mild 51, 53, 91, 15, 18: warm ——————— Correlation of Oct PNA to SE US winter for Nino -25% of the 4 strong +PNA (+1+) in Oct followed by cool to cold SE winter- A whopping 100% of the 10 weak to moderate +PNA (+0.25 to +0.99) in Oct followed by cold to cool SE winters - None of the 4 neutral PNA (-0.24 to +0.24) in Oct followed by cool to cold SE winter - 14% of the 7 -PNA (<-0.24) in Oct followed by cool to cold SE winter - So, only 13% of the 15 Octs that had either strong +PNA, neutral PNA, or -PNA followed by cool to cold SE winters - So, sweet spot by far for best shot at cool to cold SE Nino winters is Oct PNA of +0.25 to +0.99. Needless to say after just today discovering this, I’ll be rooting very hard for a +0.25 to +0.99 PNA in Oct! ** The data I’m basing this on is from the monthly PNA table seen at the 1st link below as opposed to the dailies (2nd link). That’s important to note because the monthlies average ~twice the amplitude of the dailies’ average. ———————— Today’s GEFS PNA prog for Oct 1-14 based on dailies is ~+0.6. However, keep in mind that the absolute value of the corresponding monthly amplitude averages ~twice as high as what the dailies would suggest. So, in this case, the equiv for the first half of Oct could easily be ~+1.2. That bodes very well for the chances of this full Oct’s PNA coming in as a +PNA when the monthly is released. But hopefully it would come in within the +0.25 to +0.99 interval so as to hit the sweet spot for the chances of a cool to cold winter: Monthly PNA (higher amp vs avg of dailies): https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table Daily PNA (lower amp vs monthly): https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.pna.index.b500101.current.ascii Great work per usual Larry ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 GEFS is still suggesting high chance for a +PNA for October as a whole with a likely +2+ peak in the dailies coming early next week. Hoping Oct doesn’t come in with too high of a +PNA, however: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 1 hour ago, GaWx said: GEFS is still suggesting high chance for a +PNA for October as a whole with a likely +2+ peak in the dailies coming early next week. Hoping Oct doesn’t come in with too high of a +PNA, however: Is our upcoming cold(ish) snap a direct result of the spike in PNA? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 24 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Is our upcoming cold(ish) snap a direct result of the spike in PNA? It is a combo of the +2 PNA (peaking on that day) and a -1 NAO coinciding. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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