El Nino 2023-2024

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I bet most guidance cools a bit again next month. 

Yes. Cfs2 agrees fwiw. The Cfs2 isn't great for long term predictions, but it's reasonable with showing trends over the next month or less. And its current trends are consistent with this month's other Seasonal modeling to lower the peak for the event. 

[George001]

Yes guidance cooled a bit, but most guidance is still showing a super nino. I am sticking to my call for a 2.3 ONI (super) peak in OND. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

@raindancewxI think I remember you saying that ACE only matters during la nina...is that correct?

[ORH_wxman]

16 hours ago, bluewave said:

It made up for the NYC area model error in January 2015 when the low went too far to the east. The later portion of January has become a good period for KU events since January 2011. So that has been a reliable period to forecast a big snowfall event.The funny thing about the 14-15 seasonal forecasts was some of the calls had  a record -NAO based on fall Siberian snow cover. But we got a record +NAO.  The plot twist was that the Boston area set their new snowfall record. Again, another striking event which would have gotten laughed at if presented on a fall snowfall forecast with record +NAO and record  snowfall in the same sentence. That’s what I mean about the uniqueness of all the winter patterns since 09-10.

Roughly 2 week snowfall periods since 2010 and the number of 12"+ snowstorms in NYC Metro forecast zones.

Oct 29-Nov 15.....3

Nov 16-Nov 30....0

Dec 1- Dec 15.....0

Dec 16-Dec 31....3

Jan1-Jan 15.......4

Jan16-Jan 31.....6

Feb 1-Feb 15.....7

Feb 16-Feb 28...1

Mar 1- Mar 15....6

Mar 16-Mar 31...1

Apr 1-Apr 16.....0

Boston has had some weird quirks of very large seasonal snowfall during strongly +NAO seasons....1992-93 and 1993-94 also are in the group....or even strongly positive NAO months like Jan 2005.

[bluewave]

24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Boston has had some weird quirks of very large seasonal snowfall during strongly +NAO seasons....1992-93 and 1993-94 also are in the group....or even strongly positive NAO months like Jan 2005.

No doubt. But based on the other  other 5 most positive Dec-Mar +NAO seasons, the collective snowfall average in Boston was only around 16”. Includes 2020,2012, 2000, 1995, and 1989. So it just goes to show the power of that historic -EPO+PNA block. Things were just a little too progressive with the record +NAO for places around NYC to challenge their max around 75”. But 50” was a nice consolation prize even though the big one went a little too far to the east to cash in on the jackpot.

 

 

 

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

None of these models are great long term. But the CFS has a short term cooling which takes this year out of the running for a very strong event. Almost looks like the whole event loses momentum due to a big 1+2 decline. If we see any leveling off or slight pullback in coming weeks, then the odds of a very strong event go down since this is the time of the year when really big events take off.

 

Odd. Your graphs look different than today's forecast from this site. I even updated my cache.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/CFSv2SST8210.html

[bluewave]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Odd. Your graphs look different than today's forecast from this site. I even updated my cache.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/CFSv2SST8210.html

I get the same charts referenced in the most recent CPC update. 

 

[Terpeast]

36 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I get the same charts referenced in the most recent CPC update. 

 

So if this thing is gonna peak at 1.4 ONI (3 month), then MEI should get up to around 0.8. 

The mid-atlantic has seen some decent to good winters with a MEI between 0.5-0.9. I’d prefer MEI to be 1.0-1.5, but I’d take 0.8 and run.

There’s also a chance that the CFS is overcorrecting, though

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

So if this thing is gonna peak at 1.4 ONI (3 month), then MEI should get up to around 0.8. 

The mid-atlantic has seen some decent to good winters with a MEI between 0.5-0.9. I’d prefer MEI to be 1.0-1.5, but I’d take 0.8 and run

Just not sure if a MEI or RONI that low in this new era would even  allow the El Niño to couple?  That was the same range we were in back in 18-19 and look what happened. So we would need to rely getting strong enough  -AO or -NAO to try and mute the persistent Niña background state. But we really need to see where these ENSO readings go and if we can couple the next few months to know what we may be dealing with pattern wise during the winter. 

[Terpeast]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Just not sure if a MEI or RONI that low in this new era would even  allow the El Niño to couple?  That was the same range we were in back in 18-19 and look what happened. So we would need to rely getting strong enough  -AO or -NAO to try and mute the persistent Niña background state. But we really need to see where these ENSO readings go and if we can couple the next few months to know what we may be dealing with pattern wise during the winter. 

True. How was 2018-19 for SNE?

It was a slightly above average winter for my area, so if we got a repeat of that, I’d be slightly disappointed that we didn’t get another 02-03 or 09-10, but I wouldn’t be complaining at all. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

28 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Just not sure if a MEI or RONI that low in this new era would even  allow the El Niño to couple?  That was the same range we were in back in 18-19 and look what happened. So we would need to rely getting strong enough  -AO or -NAO to try and mute the persistent Niña background state. But we really need to see where these ENSO readings go and if we can couple the next few months to know what we may be dealing with pattern wise during the winter. 

The MEI briefly touched 0.5 in Aug/Sept, then went neutral. That isn't happening.

[40/70 Benchmark]

38 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

So if this thing is gonna peak at 1.4 ONI (3 month), then MEI should get up to around 0.8. 

The mid-atlantic has seen some decent to good winters with a MEI between 0.5-0.9. I’d prefer MEI to be 1.0-1.5, but I’d take 0.8 and run.

There’s also a chance that the CFS is overcorrecting, though

You man its not going to peak at 2.9 and consume all of the livestock?

[Terpeast]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You man its not going to peak at 2.9 and consume all of the livestock?

Oops, I might’ve sounded like snowman19 for a second… 

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The MEI briefly touched 0.5 in Aug/Sept, then went neutral. That isn't happening.

Anything under +1 could iffy. But it’s still too early to know what the peak figures will be. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Anything under +1 could iffy. But it’s still too early to know what the peak figures will be. 

I really don't see the MEI remaining under 1, but fair enough. However, this could end up acting like a weak el nino, then it would be pants off in sne.

[griteater]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Boston has had some weird quirks of very large seasonal snowfall during strongly +NAO seasons....1992-93 and 1993-94 also are in the group....or even strongly positive NAO months like Jan 2005.

Feb 2015 as well, of course

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, griteater said:

Feb 2015 as well, of course

The PV basically spilled down the entire east coast lol....kind of a more pronounced version of Dec 2007 and 1993-1994.

[bluewave]

18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I really don't see the MEI remaining under 1, but fair enough. However, this could end up acting like a weak el nino, then it would be pants off in sne.

The only decent winter since 18-19 was 20-21. We got a break in the persistent Niña background state to allow a strong enough +PNA -AO. Luckily, when the PNA flipped negative, the trough stayed stuck in place near the East from the earlier pattern. So if this El Niño continues to have trouble coupling, then we’ll need some decent +PNA -AO intervals to have a better winter outcome. Still very early so it’s possible. We’ll see what other hints we get as the fall progresses. The bar for a good winter is set pretty low this year after last winter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The only decent winter since 18-19 was 20-21. We got a break in the persistent Niña background state to allow a strong enough +PNA -AO. Luckily, when the PNA flipped negative, the trough stayed stuck in place near the East from the earlier pattern. So if this El Niño continues to have trouble coupling, then we’ll need some decent +PNA -AO intervals to have a better winter outcome. Still very early so it’s possible. We’ll see what other hints we get as the fall progresses. The bar for a good winter is set pretty low this year after last winter.

That is pretty low down on my list of concerns...we are already nearing the 2019 RONI peak. I would be more worried about it in the mid atl than in SNE...I will say that. Weak el ninos can be N stream dominant. But I still feel like we will have a good s stream.

[griteater]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

So if this thing is gonna peak at 1.4 ONI (3 month), then MEI should get up to around 0.8. 

The mid-atlantic has seen some decent to good winters with a MEI between 0.5-0.9. I’d prefer MEI to be 1.0-1.5, but I’d take 0.8 and run.

There’s also a chance that the CFS is overcorrecting, though

That PDF Corrected CFS is on crack.  It has Sep at like +1.2.  Today's daily value on UKMO is +1.7 (+1.68)

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, griteater said:

That PDF Corrected CFS is on crack.  It has Sep at like +1.2.  Today's daily value on UKMO is +1.7 (+1.68)

Yea, no way it stays below 1.5.

[brooklynwx99]

the new MEI for Jul-Aug is only +0.4! no wonder the seasonal guidance is showing a pattern that's more associated with a moderate event

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

I expect the MEI to peak somewhere in the +1.0-1.5 range at this point, probably by Nov-Dec. it'll be enough to couple... a winter like 2018-19 is the least of my concerns right now

[brooklynwx99]

there is pretty much no way this will act like a canonical super Nino at this point. that ship seems to be sailing away by the week

[snowman19]

Yea, no way it stays below 1.5.

The CFS has been laughably horrible. It’s been trying to cool region 1+2 down to +1.0C literally for the last 6 months.

[ORH_wxman]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The only decent winter since 18-19 was 20-21. We got a break in the persistent Niña background state to allow a strong enough +PNA -AO. Luckily, when the PNA flipped negative, the trough stayed stuck in place near the East from the earlier pattern. So if this El Niño continues to have trouble coupling, then we’ll need some decent +PNA -AO intervals to have a better winter outcome. Still very early so it’s possible. We’ll see what other hints we get as the fall progresses. The bar for a good winter is set pretty low this year after last winter.

The late Jan/early Feb 2021 period was really driven by an exceptionally favorable Atlantic....the PAC pattern was a -PNA, but the trough wasn't digging into Baja CA/S CA like we saw last winter and for a time in Dec 2021 too....so because it wasn't digging that far southwest, it allowed the NAO block to successfully produce a classic height response over the Northeast and Atlantic region.

 

 

Late Dec 2010 through first half of Jan 2011 also saw this pattern though the PAC was even a little more favorable (though still a -PNA) to produce an even colder height response than the 2021 pattern.

 

These are aren;t super uncommon for "good" La Nina patterns. I'd expect a lot more +PNA though this winter.

[snowman19]

The late Jan/early Feb 2021 period was really driven by an exceptionally favorable Atlantic....the PAC pattern was a -PNA, but the trough wasn't digging into Baja CA/S CA like we saw last winter and for a time in Dec 2021 too....so because it wasn't digging that far southwest, it allowed the NAO block to successfully produce a classic height response over the Northeast and Atlantic region.
 

 
Late Dec 2010 through first half of Jan 2011 also saw this pattern though the PAC was even a little more favorable (though still a -PNA) to produce an even colder height response than the 2021 pattern.

 
These are aren;t super uncommon for "good" La Nina patterns. I'd expect a lot more +PNA though this winter.

It would be truly unprecedented and very hard to believe for us to see a La Niña pattern and no response from a super El Niño this winter. If the Euro is correct and there’s a trimonthly +2.2C ONI for NDJ, I would bet my year’s salary that there is a very strong atmospheric response. I would be completely shocked if there’s not. All the seasonal models so far show an absolutely raging STJ on roids, not La Niña like in the least

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, griteater said:

That PDF Corrected CFS is on crack.  It has Sep at like +1.2.  Today's daily value on UKMO is +1.7 (+1.68)

 The first 8 days of Sep have averaged +1.55 per OISST in Nino 3.4 and it has recently been about the same as ERSST. Today's OISST is ~+1.5. Today's ERSST (if there were a daily) is almost definitely no lower than +1.4. In order for this "corrected" CFS to get this full Sep prediction of a mere +1.1 anywhere close to correct, Nino 3.4 would have to plunge to near +0.75 by ~Sep 25th.

[snowman19]

 The first 8 days of Sep have averaged +1.55 per OISST in Nino 3.4 and it has recently been about the same as ERSST. Today's OISST is ~+1.5. Today's ERSST (if there were a daily) is almost definitely no lower than +1.4. In order for this "corrected" CFS to get this full Sep prediction of a mere +1.1 anywhere close to correct, Nino 3.4 would have to plunge to near +0.75 by ~Sep 25th.

The CFS is really proving itself to be garbage it is and always has been

[ORH_wxman]

22 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It would be truly unprecedented and very hard to believe for us to see a La Niña pattern and no response from a super El Niño this winter. If the Euro is correct and there’s a trimonthly +2.2C ONI for NDJ, I would bet my year’s salary that there is a very strong atmospheric response. I would be completely shocked if there’s not. All the seasonal models so far show an absolutely raging STJ on roids, not La Niña like in the least

There won't be a La Nina pattern this year....agreed. None of the seasonal models show a La Nina pattern either....they all show big +PNA with STJ riding underneath it.

The polar domain and the Aleutian low position will determine whether it's a good pattern for the northeast or not.

[GaWx]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There won't be a La Nina pattern this year....agreed. None of the seasonal models show a La Nina pattern either....they all show big +PNA with STJ riding underneath it.

The polar domain and the Aleutian low position will determine whether it's a good pattern for the northeast or not.

 Do you think there will be a DJF averaged -NAO (say -0.25 or lower) this winter? Those have been difficult to attain in recent decades for some reason with only 6 of the last 44 (14%) and only one of the last 12 winters having it. They were much more frequent from the middle 1950s through 1970s. This has been the case while at the same time summer -NAOs have become much more frequent meaning little or no correlation of winter -NAO to summer -NAO.