El Nino 2023-2024

[roardog]

Snowman19’s head will explode if we peak at 2.0 and have an outcome like the models are suggesting. He’ll have to quickly move on to forecasting a super Nina next year. lol

[bluewave]

52 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The models actually did a decent job with the drop in 1+2, they showed this a month ago. They level it off to just below +3.0C and keep it there through January. They maintain region 3 at super status through January as well. As far as region 3.4, I think the big warming there holds off until later this month. The models agree that region goes super. And we still have 2 1/2 months of OHC warming since that normally doesn’t peak until November. The CRW has 3.4 a little warmer than the OISST today, maintaining it at +1.6C like the UKMO https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/crw_ssta_graph_nino34.png

I am not a big fan of using any of these ENSO or seasonal forecasts. I believe the last correct seasonal forecast was 13-14 from the JMA? That record NE PAC ridge must have been easy to spot for some reason in the model forecast from the early fall. These long range model forecasts beyond 15 days are to some extent just versions of the 384hr gfs snowstorms in winter. Maybe AI will finally allow the models to do a correct seasonal forecast. 

[brooklynwx99]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Maybe the seasonal consensus is wrong...certainly very possible at this lead. But enough with the pillaging of anyone who espouses their content, especially those who have been touting such an outcome for some time now.

they usually get the flavor of the season right at this point

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I am not a big fan of using any of these ENSO or seasonal forecasts. I believe the last correct seasonal forecast was 13-14 from the JMA? That record NE PAC ridge must have been easy to spot for some reason in the model forecast from the early fall. These long range model forecasts beyond 15 days are to some extent just versions of the 384hr gfs snowstorms in winter. Maybe AI will finally allow the models to do a correct seasonal forecast. 

Depends how you are using them....I wouldn't rip and read them, but they can identify general themes and help the forecaster to focus on prominent seasonal drivers.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I mean, if you don't trust them to adequately diagnose major hemispheric drivers, then why are we assuming they have ENSO anomalies correct to within .3 degrees?

[brooklynwx99]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Depends how you are using them....I wouldn't rip and read them, but they can identify general themes and help the forecaster to focus on prominent seasonal drivers.

the fact that the seasonal models are similar to the analog blend my colleagues and I worked out gives them a bit more credence IMO

[ORH_wxman]

22 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

these are the same to you? because they're very different

and yes, I know they're seasonal models and all, but that's what we're talking about. these are two completely different patterns in the Pacific

Big difference there is the Aleutian low and corresponding downstream ridging....in the Feb 2016 pattern, the low is well east in the GOA and therefore, the western ridge couldn't pump up as much. That kept the bulk of the cold in Canada in Feb 2016 while we had pseudo-zonal flow and mild temps in the mean...but in the Euro and CanSIP seasonal forecasts, it is further west and the downstream ridge is pumping the best height anomalies into the NW Territory/Yukon/AK instead of being flatter down in the US like 2016. This also allows the STJ to flow nicely underneath in classic split flow pattern.

Regardless of the ENSO strength, this is the type of pattern you want to see. If that Aleutian low ends up in a 2016 position, then it will be a much warmer outcome.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the fact that the seasonal models are similar to the analog blend my colleagues and I worked out gives them a bit more credence IMO

You saw my posts, too...I mean, look familiar??

Preliminary Analysis of the Polar Landscape for Boreal Winter 2023-2024 | Eastern Mass Weather

Blocking likely

August ENSO Update & Potential Extratropical Pacific Analogs for Winter 2023-2024 | Eastern Mass Weather

-PDO likely, but the best matches and majority of analog seasons had +PNA in the DM mean.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Big difference there is the Aleutian low and corresponding downstream ridging....in the Feb 2016 pattern, the low is well east in the GOA and therefore, the western ridge couldn't pump up as much. That kept the bulk of the cold in Canada in Feb 2016 while we had pseudo-zonal flow and mild temps in the mean...but in the Euro and CanSIP seasonal forecasts, it is further west and the downstream ridge is pumping the best height anomalies into the NW Territory/Yukon/AK instead of being flatter down in the US like 2016. This also allows the STJ to flow nicely underneath in classic split flow pattern.

Regardless of the ENSO strength, this is the type of pattern you want to see. If that Aleutian low ends up in a 2016 position, then it will be a much warmer outcome.

This is what JB (I know) hit on in his last video when analyzing the Sept Euro.

The guy is biased as hell...I get it, but he knows his stuff.

[40/70 Benchmark]

JB's use of the term "migrating modoki" is dumb, as this is not a modoki, but it doesn't mean it can't end up acting like one due to the W PAC and he is right about the N PAC on the EURO.

[brooklynwx99]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You saw my posts, too...I mean, look familiar??

Preliminary Analysis of the Polar Landscape for Boreal Winter 2023-2024 | Eastern Mass Weather

Blocking likely

August ENSO Update & Potential Extratropical Pacific Analogs for Winter 2023-2024 | Eastern Mass Weather

-PDO likely, but the best matches and majority of analog seasons had +PNA in the DM mean.

 

I mean, these are my JFM analogs... like it's very similar. slightly more assertive Aleutian low in mine since 1972, 1982, and 2016 are factored in there, but the main gist is there. back the Aleutian low up a tad and it's the same

also my analogs are based on ONI/MEI, PDO, QBO, and summer 500mb/SST similarity. the models do not get factored into my forecast whatsoever

[so_whats_happening]

46 minutes ago, GaWx said:

So, you're going likely only a moderate RONI peak?

personally still like the call of 1.7 ONI max (OND) in November with monthly temp around 1.9 max in November and RONI around 1.3-1.4 MEI should be close to those values as well.

As mentioned in the prediction thread if any month like Oct coming in 1.7 vs 1.6 or November coming in 2 instead of 1.9 or December 1.8 vs 1.7 we bump it up to 1.8 ONI for OND.

Let us see how it plays out either way it does not seem the atmosphere and ENSO will be quite on the same wave length.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I mean, these are my JFM analogs... like it's very similar. slightly more assertive Aleutian low in mine since 1972, 1982, and 2016 are factored in there, but the main gist is there. back the Aleutian low up a tad and it's the same

also my analogs are based on ONI/MEI, PDO, QBO, and summer 500mb/SST similarity. the models do not get factored into my forecast whatsoever

The higher ONI values are why you have the more assertive GOA low.

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is what JB (I know) hit on in his last video when analyzing the Sept Euro.

The guy is biased as hell...I get it, but he knows his stuff.

The only thing that gives me a bit of pause is really haven’t seen a N PAC like that in a super Nino. Even the great Jan-early Feb 1966 period was mostly driven by an ideal Atlantic pattern and the PAC was just kind of meh…but not hostile enough to ruin the great NAO block. 
 

But the sample size for super ninos is admittedly pathetically small….and I don’t think enough people take that into account when expressing high confidence in pattern tendencies. Also, if this is effectively just a “strong Nino” (RONI, MEI, etc), then that changes things too I’m sure. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, so_whats_happening said:

personally still like the call of 1.7 ONI max (OND) in November with monthly temp around 1.9 max in November and RONI around 1.3-1.4 MEI should be close to those values as well.

As mentioned in the prediction thread if any month like Oct coming in 1.7 vs 1.6 or November coming in 2 instead of 1.9 or December 1.8 vs 1.7 we bump it up to 1.8 ONI for OND.

Let us see how it plays out either way it does not seem the atmosphere and ENSO will be quite on the same wave length.

Agree.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The only thing that gives me a bit of pause is really haven’t seen a N PAC like that in a super Nino. Even the great Jan-early Feb 1966 period was mostly driven by an ideal Atlantic pattern and the PAC was just kind of meh…but not hostile enough to ruin the great NAO block. 
 

But the sample size for super ninos is admittedly pathetically small….and I don’t think enough people take that into account when expressing high confidence in pattern tendencies. Also, if this is effectively just a “strong Nino” (RONI, MEI, etc), then that changes things too I’m sure. 

Show me a super nino with a west PAC like that.

Climate change.

You can't just use ONI anymore...I understand why snowman thinks that this is me moving the goalposts to produce a cold outlook, but had I realized this in 2018-2019 and 2019-2020, I would not have been operating on premise of weak el nino. That killed my forecast.

Trust me, only thing I love as much as snow are my family and being right. I do not want egg on my face and I am adjusting to past failures, not moving goalposts.

[bluewave]

35 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Depends how you are using them....I wouldn't rip and read them, but they can identify general themes and help the forecaster to focus on prominent seasonal drivers.

I have gained more benefit from observing where the model analysis and forecasts have been off and extrapolating how that could impact winter forecast going forward. But that isn’t something that a model without AI will be able to show you. I have been able to identify some seasonal drivers based on the fall patterns. But this has mostly been a function of the general warmer winter pattern composites since the 15-16 super El Niño. The really good stuff like the January into February 2016 near record KB block and blizzard pattern really didn’t become evident until we got past the +13 December. So you couldn’t put together a winter forecast that fall that saying you expected  +13 December followed by the the biggest NYC snowstorm on record and first below 0 reading since 1994.  Likewise for going 80° in February 2018 and then record March snows to follow. Same goes for the +PNA in the 20-21 winter despite the strong- PDO reading. And the even more striking Jan 22 +PNA against the record low -PDO pattern. This list can go on and on even back to the 09-10 winter with the extreme shifts from winter to winter some years and stuck warm patterns since 15-16. And laughable abrupt shifts within the same winter into early spring.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I have gained more benefit from observing where the model analysis and forecasts have been off and extrapolating how that could impact winter forecast going forward. But that isn’t something that a model without AI will be able to show you. I have been able to identify some seasonal drivers based on the fall patterns. But this has mostly been a function of the general warmer winter pattern composites since the 15-16 super El Niño. The really good stuff like the January into February 2016 near record KB block and blizzard pattern really didn’t become evident until we got past the +13 December. So you couldn’t put together a winter forecast that fall that saying you expected  +13 December followed by the the biggest NYC snowstorm on record and first below 0 reading since 1994.  Likewise for going 80° in February 2018 and then record March snows to follow. Same goes for the +PNA in the 20-21 winter despite the strong- PDO reading. And the even more striking Jan 22 +PNA against the record low -PDO pattern. This list can go on and on even back to the 09-10 winter with the extreme shifts from winter to winter some years and stuck warm patterns since 15-16.

I actually did get that storm correct down to the week back in early November....I was just too cold and snowy overall. I focused to much on the westward lean of SSTs.

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I actually did get that storm correct down to the week back in early November....I was just too cold and snowy overall. I focused to much on the westward lean of SSTs.

That's true. I remember that.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I actually did get that storm correct down to the week back in early November....I was just too cold and snowy overall. I focused to much on the westward lean of SSTs.

It made up for the NYC area model error in January 2015 when the low went too far to the east. The later portion of January has become a good period for KU events since January 2011. So that has been a reliable period to forecast a big snowfall event.The funny thing about the 14-15 seasonal forecasts was some of the calls had  a record -NAO based on fall Siberian snow cover. But we got a record +NAO.  The plot twist was that the Boston area set their new snowfall record. Again, another striking event which would have gotten laughed at if presented on a fall snowfall forecast with record +NAO and record  snowfall in the same sentence. That’s what I mean about the uniqueness of all the winter patterns since 09-10.

Roughly 2 week snowfall periods since 2010 and the number of 12"+ snowstorms in NYC Metro forecast zones.

Oct 29-Nov 15.....3

Nov 16-Nov 30....0

Dec 1- Dec 15.....0

Dec 16-Dec 31....3

Jan1-Jan 15.......4

Jan16-Jan 31.....6

Feb 1-Feb 15.....7

Feb 16-Feb 28...1

Mar 1- Mar 15....6

Mar 16-Mar 31...1

Apr 1-Apr 16.....0

[snowman19]

The new Euro has one of the strongest El Niños in history. Not only that, it has a later peak…gets region 3.4 up to +2.5C in January. Over 85% of the members on the new run show a super trimonthly ONI El Niño now. See Ben Noll’s new tweet: 

 

[mitchnick]

31 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The new Euro has one of the strongest El Niños in history. Not only that, it has a later peak…gets region 3.4 up to +2.5C in January. Over 85% of the members on the new run show a super trimonthly ONI El Niño now. See Ben Noll’s new tweet: 

 

It appears to show 3.4 at the start of September at around +1.8C, but none of the current monitoring shows that. CPC was 1.6 on 8/30 and OIST was +1.55C on 9/1.

Also, you're reading the graph incorrectly.  Jan is around +2.3C not +2.5C.

[snowman19]

25 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

It appears to show 3.4 at the start of September at around +1.8C, but none of the current monitoring shows that. CPC was 1.6 on 830 and OIST was +1.55C on 9/1.
Also, you're reading the graph incorrectly.  Jan is around +2.3C not +2.5C.

If the Euro is correct, this will be one of the strongest super El Niños in recorded history and December actually hits +2.5C, and yes, January at +2.3C, but either way…wow if the Euro is correct. @so_whats_happeningAs I said “one of the strongest”,  not THE strongest, I’m well aware of the 15-16 ONI peak

[so_whats_happening]

Just now, snowman19 said:

If the Euro is correct, this will be one of the strongest super El Niños in recorded history and December actually hits +2.5C, January at +2.3C, but either way…wow if correct

Dude ONI for 2015/16 hit twice at 2.6...

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, snowman19 said:

If the Euro is correct, this will be one of the strongest super El Niños in recorded history and December actually hits +2.5C, January at +2.3C, but either way…wow if the Euro is correct

wow is right. I'm hoping it has the right idea

[so_whats_happening]

9 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If the Euro is correct, this will be one of the strongest super El Niños in recorded history and December actually hits +2.5C, and yes, January at +2.3C, but either way…wow if the Euro is correct. @so_whats_happeningAs I said “one of the strongest, not THE strongest” I’m well aware of the 15-16 ONI peak

Lol more blanket statements 97 was 2.4 for two consecutive ONI and 82 was 2.2 for 3 consecutive ONI.

What is your point?

I also don't understand how you can say don't trust models far out but yet explicitly talk about how models are predicting the peak near record highs...

Edit: I guess Ill have to wait till tomorrow when you have more posts or just edit another post.

[mitchnick]

11 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

wow is right. I'm hoping it has the right idea

I  look at that and worry it favors the southern MA. Living thru 72/73 around BWI remains a very bad nightmare for me.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The new Euro has one of the strongest El Niños in history. Not only that, it has a later peak…gets region 3.4 up to +2.5C in January. Over 85% of the members on the new run show a super trimonthly ONI El Niño now. See Ben Noll’s new tweet: 

 

Can we shake hands on the September Euro winter seasonal verifying? I would sign now.

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The new Euro has one of the strongest El Niños in history. Not only that, it has a later peak…gets region 3.4 up to +2.5C in January. Over 85% of the members on the new run show a super trimonthly ONI El Niño now. See Ben Noll’s new tweet: 

 

On Tuesday, you posted a link to Mario Ramirez showing the new Euro 3.4 ens members:

https://twitter.com/Mario___Ramirez/status/1699126469518074024/photo/1

 Based on eyeballing, Dec to me looks slightly warmer than Jan. Dec looks to me like it is ~2.30 while Nov and Jan look more like 2.25. So, I'm estimating based on this that the new Euro is at most 2.27ish for ONI peak. Last month's Euro was at 2.40. So, I'm thinking the Euro cooled. 

 Now looking at Ben Noll's graph, I see that he has Jan as the warmest and up near 2.35 though it isn't as warm as the 2.5 that you mentioned. Also, Ben shows Dec and Feb to be ~same. But if you look at Mario's post, Feb is clearly cooler than Dec. Something seems to be a bit off. Maybe they're using different climo for baseline??

[40/70 Benchmark]

26 minutes ago, GaWx said:

On Tuesday, you posted a link to Mario Ramirez showing the new Euro 3.4 ens members:

https://twitter.com/Mario___Ramirez/status/1699126469518074024/photo/1

 Based on eyeballing, Dec to me looks slightly warmer than Jan. Dec looks to me like it is ~2.30 while Nov and Jan look more like 2.25. So, I'm estimating based on this that the new Euro is at most 2.27ish for ONI peak. Last month's Euro was at 2.40. So, I'm thinking the Euro cooled. 

 Now looking at Ben Noll's graph, I see that he has Jan as the warmest and up near 2.35 though it isn't as warm as the 2.5 that you mentioned. Also, Ben shows Dec and Feb to be ~same. But if you look at Mario's post, Feb is clearly cooler than Dec. Something seems to be a bit off. Maybe they're using different climo for baseline??

I bet most guidance cools a bit again next month.