El Nino 2023-2024

[snowman19]

We still haven’t seen a full coupling of the atmosphere when the trade winds and clouds are factored in. 
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

 while trade winds and Pacific cloudiness have not yet demonstrated sustained El Niño patterns. Overall, atmospheric indicators suggest the Pacific Ocean and atmosphere are not yet consistently reinforcing each other, as occurs during El Niño events.

The -SOI is responding, a clear atmospheric response to the strengthening Nino Walker circulation and good coupling. It’s also completely drowning out and suppressing the IO and Maritime Continent low frequency MJO forcing as you can read in that CPC discussion. The Nino forcing has overtaken. Make no mistake about it, it’s game time for this Nino

[bluewave]

11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The -SOI is responding, a clear atmospheric response to the strengthening Nino Walker circulation and good coupling. It’s also completely drowning out and suppressing the IO and Maritime Continent low frequency MJO forcing as you can read in that CPC discussion. The Nino forcing has overtaken. Make no mistake about it, it’s game time for this Nino

We wouldn’t be seeing the strong Atlantic hurricane activity if the El Niño was having a big influence on the actual pattern.

[snowman19]

We wouldn’t be seeing the strong Atlantic hurricane activity if the El Niño was having a big influence on the actual pattern.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf

[snowman19]

34 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We still haven’t seen a full coupling of the atmosphere when the trade winds and clouds are factored in. Also note how the forcing is struggling to make it east of the Dateline for another month. The El Niño will start leveling off sooner than anyone expects if the ocean and atmosphere can’t reinforce each other.  So it will be interesting to see what happens going forward. 

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

 while trade winds and Pacific cloudiness have not yet demonstrated sustained El Niño patterns. Overall, atmospheric indicators suggest the Pacific Ocean and atmosphere are not yet consistently reinforcing each other, as occurs during El Niño events.

The BOM is obviously more conservative than the CPC lol However, they do show the forecasted healthy +IOD and also show the Nino peaking at a trimonthly ONI average of +2.2C

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The BOM is obviously more conservative than the CPC lol However, they do show the forecasted healthy +IOD and also show the Nino peaking at a trimonthly ONI average of +2.2C

You don’t even need to look at any of the discussions from the various agencies. The raw data is freely available on the internet. Forcing continues to be centered over the WPAC which is driving the current amplification of the pattern ahead of Lee. Much more of a Niña-like pattern for early September. Record early September heat in the East and major hurricanes approaching from the east are also more Niña-like. 
 

 

[roardog]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The -SOI is responding, a clear atmospheric response to the strengthening Nino Walker circulation and good coupling. It’s also completely drowning out and suppressing the IO and Maritime Continent low frequency MJO forcing as you can read in that CPC discussion. The Nino forcing has overtaken. Make no mistake about it, it’s game time for this Nino

You keep talking about the -SOI but in reality it’s only -9 on the 30 day and -6 on the 90 day. That’s not exactly an indication of a super Nino. It’s barely even in “Nino” territory. I would say those numbers represent a weak Nino more than anything. This along with the MEI and RONI is showing how our warmed planet is making it more difficult than it already was to forecast long range imo. 

[griteater]

3.4 SSTs don't seem to care about what's going on all around it and continue their slow and steady climb.  Up to +1.66 on UKMO data, highest this year.

 

 

Here is a quick 2 image subsurface loop for Aug 27 > Sep 6.  Downwelling ripple working east to 120 W

[griteater]

First look at JMA Seasonal for winter is in (Dec-Feb).  -EPO/+PNA ridge.  West Coast split flow.  Weak West-Based -NAO

 

 

 

JMA has bluewave forcing (west of dateline), similar to 14-15, which spawns W Canada ridging.

 

 

JMA 3.4 SST Mean maxes out at +2.1 in the month of Dec

 

 

JMA SST Nino base has a basin-wide look overall for Dec-Feb, though it is a tick east of 15-16

 

Source: Ensemble Model Prediction / TCC (jma.go.jp)

[ORH_wxman]

An awful lot of seasonal guidance has the Aleutian low well west in a favorable spot that we typically see during a weaker or modoki El Nino....that is really the main key for any eastern winter enthusiast....where that Aleutian low sets up. In previous torchy Super Ninos, the Aleutian low is displaced pretty far east well into the GOA and enlarged which sort of destroys the benefit of split flow and a colder southeast Canada/Northeast US.

[so_whats_happening]

17 hours ago, griteater said:

OK, that 10-day VP image you posted makes a lot more sense to me.  Looking back at Dec 2015 in 10-day increments, there was Dateline to E Pac uplift in early Dec, then MC to Dateline uplift in mid-Dec (your image), then back to Dateline uplift in late Dec.  But yeah, it looks like that amplified MJO wave was at least partially to blame with wrecking things in Dec 2015.  Here is what that 10-day period looks like on the JMA images...

 

The main idea in that paper (at least in the Intro I read) is that in a Super Nino, you wouldn't expect the MJO to be active and influential...and rather, you'd expect a Super Nino to moreso be fully in control of influencing the pattern.  In contrast, the weaker the ENSO, the more influence you'd expect coming from the MJO.

OK, we'll have to see how it shakes out this winter.  For periods of E U.S. winter interests, we want to see the low frequency uplift stay closer to the Dateline and not be overwhelmingly strong, and not extend too far east into the E Pac (or too far west)...and we don't want to see big amplitude MJO making a run thru Indonesia.

I mean this makes sense you would hope that the super nino would actually be able to take hold of the atmosphere and that the MJO would just fall in line with being in the warm ENSO region low amplitude in a way to enhance the background state at times. You also want to see interference continually in the CPAC with trades so you want the WPAC to start off strong and die as the summer goes on so it can generate WWB events across the pacific.

1997 and 2015 WWB from (https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/december-el-niño-update-phenomenal-cosmic-powers?page=0)

Was having the hardest time finding 1997 850 U anoms so this article should do well. Besides the WWB event in March/April this was the first one across the dateline that had impact. June was definitely there but feel this was more of a spreading of waters westward from the already record warm EPAC that helped enhance 3.4. 

The consistency of the WWB events is also important 2015 already had strong starting point with warm waters already across the equator so it was primed. 1997 had a cool ENSO state beforehand not quite similar but similarish to what we had just gone through but the frequency and strength of the WWB events was on another level helping drive an extremely strong Nino event. I really do believe the already extremely warm waters globally are playing a significant role here. If we didn't have the near record levels of warmth in the WPAC would we have had a strong ENSO event given the atmospheric state we are seeing? I personally believe it would have been along the lines of a moderate event given the atmospheric state of things, but with already extremely warm waters it is much easier to attain these high levels of SSTs and anomalies compared to 1997, 1982, and pre 1980s el Nino events. Basically like stating the atmosphere doesn't have to work nearly as hard to induce an El Nino state but if the atmosphere doesn't work nearly as hard does it have the same impact even with SST anoms at these upper levels?

Lets hope the +IOD holds and WPAC continues to cool otherwise will still be many fighting components here even if ONI goes above 2C.

[bluewave]

MEI still ENSO neutral at +0.4 on the latest update.

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

 

[Terpeast]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

MEI still ENSO neutral at +0.4 on the latest update.

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

 

Looks good for a target of 1.0 give or take by Dec. Have no expectation of anything higher than 1.5 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

MEI still ENSO neutral at +0.4 on the latest update.

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

 

Even assuming a 1991 type recovery places it at 1.7 by FM...I can't imagine it getting higher than that for winter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Looks good for a target of 1.0 give or take by Dec. Have no expectation of anything higher than 1.5 

Yea, I have been thinking around that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

59 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

An awful lot of seasonal guidance has the Aleutian low well west in a favorable spot that we typically see during a weaker or modoki El Nino....that is really the main key for any eastern winter enthusiast....where that Aleutian low sets up. In previous torchy Super Ninos, the Aleutian low is displaced pretty far east well into the GOA and enlarged which sort of destroys the benefit of split flow and a colder southeast Canada/Northeast US.

Yea, its getting pretty hard to ignore, at this point....this is congruent with my research a month ago on the winter 2023-2024 polar domain.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, griteater said:

First look at JMA Seasonal for winter is in (Dec-Feb).  -EPO/+PNA ridge.  West Coast split flow.  Weak West-Based -NAO

 

 

 

JMA has bluewave forcing (west of dateline), similar to 14-15, which spawns W Canada ridging.

 

 

JMA 3.4 SST Mean maxes out at +2.1 in the month of Dec

 

 

JMA SST Nino base has a basin-wide look overall for Dec-Feb, though it is a tick east of 15-16

 

Source: Ensemble Model Prediction / TCC (jma.go.jp)

If you remember, snowman gave me shit over it, but I said that I expected the PDO and PNA to part ways.

[snowman19]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If you remember, snowman gave me shit over it, but I said that I expected the PDO and PNA to part ways.

Again, wait until November and see where we are at. These seasonal models are initializing with the current forcing and just assuming it doesn’t move and keeping it there….very unlikely. See Griteater’s post about the Nino base state shown on that run being east of 15-16, yet it’s showing 14-15 forcing? It’s showing forcing west of even 15-16. I think not. Also, it’s showing a super El Niño, peaking in December, with an absolutely raging, epic STJ crashing into the west coast, what do you think that is going to do to any +PNA that pops up? It’s going to crash into it and knock it right back down. You aren’t going to be able to sustain +PNA. And an Aleutian low in a weak Nino/-EPO position? Color me skeptical. As far as the NAO/AO…that’s possible, but the PAC side is very suspect IMO. Let’s revisit this in November when the Nino gets more established and the seasonal wavelength changes and feedbacks kick in

[snowman19]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks like the SSTs have maxed out for the time being as the upper ocean heat leveled off around +1.3. More indication that 1.2 has had an early peak. Plus Nino 3.4 is off the recent highs as the trades picked back up again.

The models actually did a decent job with the drop in 1+2, they showed this a month ago. They level it off to just below +3.0C and keep it there through January. They maintain region 3 at super status through January as well. As far as region 3.4, I think the big warming there holds off until later this month. The models agree that region goes super. And we still have 2 1/2 months of OHC warming since that normally doesn’t peak until November. The CRW has 3.4 a little warmer than the OISST today, maintaining it at +1.6C like the UKMO https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/crw_ssta_graph_nino34.png

[brooklynwx99]

53 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Again, wait until November and see where we are at. These seasonal models are initializing with the current forcing and just assuming it doesn’t move and keeping it there….very unlikely. See Griteater’s post about the Nino base state shown on that run being east of 15-16, yet it’s showing 14-15 forcing? It’s showing forcing west of even 15-16. I think not. Also, it’s showing a super El Niño, peaking in December, with an absolutely raging, epic STJ crashing into the west coast, what do you think that is going to do to any +PNA that pops up? It’s going to crash into it and knock it right back down. You aren’t going to be able to sustain +PNA. And an Aleutian low in a weak Nino/-EPO position? Color me skeptical. As far as the NAO/AO…that’s possible, but the PAC side is very suspect IMO. Let’s revisit this in November when the Nino gets more established and the seasonal wavelength changes and feedbacks kick in

the STJ goes under the +PNA ridge, hence the split flow. you absolutely can sustain a +PNA with an active STJ as long as the Aleutian low isn't too far east

and also, 2015 had the typical cooler than normal WPAC compared to the warmer than normal one that we're seeing now. so yes, it makes sense that it has forcing that's farther west than it was in 2015-16

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Again, wait until November and see where we are at. These seasonal models are initializing with the current forcing and just assuming it doesn’t move and keeping it there….very unlikely. See Griteater’s post about the Nino base state shown on that run being east of 15-16, yet it’s showing 14-15 forcing? It’s showing forcing west of even 15-16. I think not. Also, it’s showing a super El Niño, peaking in December, with an absolutely raging, epic STJ crashing into the west coast, what do you think that is going to do to any +PNA that pops up? It’s going to crash into it and knock it right back down. You aren’t going to be able to sustain +PNA. And an Aleutian low in a weak Nino/-EPO position? Color me skeptical. As far as the NAO/AO…that’s possible, but the PAC side is very suspect IMO. Let’s revisit this in November when the Nino gets more established and the seasonal wavelength changes and feedbacks kick in

That has been what has been happening all summer, save for a couple of weeks in August and its shifting back. Regardless, all I am suggesting is that the fact that models are now showing what I have been arguing provides me with a measure of validation since you accused me of being biased and having an agenda.

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, griteater said:

First look at JMA Seasonal for winter is in (Dec-Feb).  -EPO/+PNA ridge.  West Coast split flow.  Weak West-Based -NAO

 

 

 

JMA has bluewave forcing (west of dateline), similar to 14-15, which spawns W Canada ridging.

 

 

JMA 3.4 SST Mean maxes out at +2.1 in the month of Dec

 

 

JMA SST Nino base has a basin-wide look overall for Dec-Feb, though it is a tick east of 15-16

 

Source: Ensemble Model Prediction / TCC (jma.go.jp)

 So, the JMA had an ONI peak drop from 2.22 in last month's prog to ~2.05 in this new one. The Euro similarly dropped from 2.40 to ~2.25. The somewhat inferior CFS dropped even more sharply, from 2.11 to ~1.76. So, all three of these have dropped since last month (~0.15 to ~0.35). As a result, I'm lowering my ONI peak prediction from 2.2 to 2.1 and will continue to adjust as per what the model and other data shows. Of course, the RONI peak would be lower, probably near +1.6 to +1.7.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 So, the JMA had an ONI peak drop from 2.22 in last month's prog to ~2.05 in this new one. The Euro similarly dropped from 2.40 to ~2.25. The somewhat inferior CFS dropped even more sharply, from 2.11 to ~1.76. So, all three of these have dropped since last month (~0.15 to ~0.35). As a result, I'm lowering my ONI peak prediction from 2.2 to 2.1 and will continue to adjust as per what the model and other data shows. Of course, the RONI peak would be lower, probably near +1.6 to +1.7.

As a result, I am keeping my ONI prediction between 1.5 and 1.9, where it has been all summer.

[snowman19]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That has been what has been happening all summer, save for a couple of weeks in August and its shifting back. Regardless, all I am suggesting is that the fact that models are now showing what I have been arguing provides me with a measure of validation.

They show validation of what? It’s 9/7, you mused about winter. What the models show right now doesn’t mean anything for Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar. Winter thoughts will be validated or not validated at the end of March. They could very well completely flip come November’s runs. My point is that what the models show now, is initialized off the current antecedent forcing conditions and they are keeping it there. And @Brooklynwx99, an overpowering STJ from a super El Niño is going to crash through +PNA and bring in PAC air, we saw this in 15-16 minus a 2 week anomalous period in early-mid January that winter was a PAC air torch a rama

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, snowman19 said:

They show validation of what? It’s 9/7, you mused about winter. What the models show right now doesn’t mean anything for Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar. Winter thoughts will be validated or not validated at the end of March. They could very well completely flip come November’s runs. My point is that what the models show now, is initialized off the current antecedent forcing conditions and they are keeping it there. And @Brooklynwx99, an overpowering STJ from a super El Niño is going to crash through +PNA and bring in PAC air, we saw this in 15-16 minus a 3 week anomalous period in early-mid January that winter was a PAC air torch a rama

It validates my argument as sound, not that it will necessarily be reality.

Is this that difficult to understand?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Its like me calling you biased for expecting a super el nino when guidance is showing....a super el nino. Doesn't mean I have to agree or think it will be right, but its a a valid, supported conclusion.

[GaWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

As a result, I am keeping my ONI prediction between 1.5 and 1.9, where it has been all summer.

So, you're going likely only a moderate RONI peak?

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

So, you're going likely only a moderate RONI peak?

I haven't offered a RONI prediction, but probably...maybe 1.5, tops....like the MEI.

[brooklynwx99]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

They show validation of what? It’s 9/7, you mused about winter. What the models show right now doesn’t mean anything for Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar. Winter thoughts will be validated or not validated at the end of March. They could very well completely flip come November’s runs. My point is that what the models show now, is initialized off the current antecedent forcing conditions and they are keeping it there. And @Brooklynwx99, an overpowering STJ from a super El Niño is going to crash through +PNA and bring in PAC air, we saw this in 15-16 minus a 3 week anomalous period in early-mid January that winter was a PAC air torch a rama

these are the same to you? because they're very different

and yes, I know they're seasonal models and all, but that's what we're talking about. these are two completely different patterns in the Pacific

[brooklynwx99]

and the whole "well, every single model must be wrong!" thing is a bit rich. there's a reason why they're showing what they're showing, it's not based on nothing

[40/70 Benchmark]

Maybe the seasonal consensus is wrong...certainly very possible at this lead. But enough with the pillaging of anyone who espouses their content, especially those who have been touting such an outcome for some time now.