El Nino 2023-2024

[so_whats_happening]

7 minutes ago, George001 said:

I’d take a 2017-2018 type winter and run. It had some really mild stretches, averaged AN but overall but was very snowy winter with 2 blizzards. March 2018 was incredible. I had never seen so much snow in March like that before. There was about 30 inches of heavy wet snow (from 2 back to back storms) piled up, and the snowpack lasted nearly the entire month despite us missing out on the next couple of storms. That more than made up for the mild temps the previous month.

17-18 was a fun one got a foot and a half snowstorm on my bday in march otherwise was a rather average year. So I would take it and run lol

I mean we honestly can only go up from here with 4.5" in 21-22 and 0.9" last year (set a record for least snowiest year recorded in my area), like I said Ill take a foot of snow and run at this point the more the better!

[brooklynwx99]

ONI for JJA is officially +1.1, so we have cracked moderate territory for now... will need to see the two next readings, but a moderate is certain

however, the RONI is only +0.57! this is a 0.53 degree difference, which is significant. the MEI will also likely lag around there, meaning that this event is still behaving like a low-end weak event

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt

[so_whats_happening]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Very weak event so far in regard to typical developing El Niño atmospheric response. 

 

 

Yea we have pulled ahead of the EPAC which is unusual in an El Nino and if Lee does its thing likely get pretty close on ACE as well which is just above normal as of now. We should not have gotten Franklin and Idalia forming where they did in an El Nino year.

[bluewave]

5 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Yea we have pulled ahead of the EPAC which is unusual in an El Nino and if Lee does its thing likely get pretty close on ACE as well which is just above normal as of now. We should not have gotten Franklin and Idalia forming where they did in an El Nino year.

You wonder what the magic number necessary these days is for a robust El Niño atmospheric response when +1.5 in Nino 3.4 hardly moves the needle. 

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

You wonder what the magic number necessary these days is for a robust El Niño atmospheric response when +1.5 in Nino 3.4 hardly moves the needle. 

I would think once RONI/MEI reaches 1.0+ then we start to see the needle move. 

If we’re at 0.57 with a 1.1 JJA, then we probably need ONI to get up to at least 1.6 sustained over 3 months.

[George001]

32 minutes ago, griteater said:

Here it is...

Source: ECMWF | Charts

Now this is something we can work with. Big difference between +0.5-+1.0 DJF and a +5 blowtorch. It also matters how you get to those anomalies.

Say winter A is +10 Dec, -2 Jan, -2 Feb, and winter B is -2 Dec, +3 Jan, +5 Feb. Both winters A and B are average precipitation. Despite both winter A and winter B being +2 DJF, I would expect winter A to produce as much snow as 3 winter Bs. The way I see it, whether you are +5 or +10 you are getting skunked. I would rather punt a month with marginal climo (Dec) than peak climo (Feb). And that’s not even including March (which is snowier than Dec). This Euro run verbatim is a less extreme version of winter A (much cooler in Dec but still a torch, probably a bit warmer Jan and Feb but still good). 

[brooklynwx99]

13 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I would think once RONI/MEI reaches 1.0+ then we start to see the needle move. 

If we’re at 0.57 with a 1.1 JJA, then we probably need ONI to get up to at least 1.6 sustained over 3 months.

if we see like OND at 1.8, NDJ at 1.9, and DJF at 1.7, we average +1.8 ONI and a MEI of like +1.3-1.5. sounds good to me

this is almost certainly why the models are showing a moderate Nino with west-leaning forcing pattern rather than a canonical super Nino pattern

[bluewave]

18 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I would think once RONI/MEI reaches 1.0+ then we start to see the needle move. 

If we’re at 0.57 with a 1.1 JJA, then we probably need ONI to get up to at least 1.6 sustained over 3 months.

It looks another case of the WPAC warm pool slowing down the MJO from progressing past the Dateline this month. 
 

[so_whats_happening]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You wonder what the magic number necessary these days is for a robust El Niño atmospheric response when +1.5 in Nino 3.4 hardly moves the needle. 

 

11 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I would think once RONI/MEI reaches 1.0+ then we start to see the needle move. 

If we’re at 0.57 with a 1.1 JJA, then we probably need ONI to get up to at least 1.6 sustained over 3 months.

That seems like a reasonable thought but in general the fact that you have to have ONI that high to attain an MEI/RONI large enough to support a more fluid El Nino response is saying a lot for this year. That is also not to say that every MEI/RONI in the future will follow in the same path as this has but there certainly is something off about this year. Would love to see a post mortem of this event after the winter is done.

[bluewave]

37 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

 

That seems like a reasonable thought but in general the fact that you have to have ONI that high to attain an MEI/RONI large enough to support a more fluid El Nino response is saying a lot for this year. That is also not to say that every MEI/RONI in the future will follow in the same path as this has but there certainly is something off about this year. Would love to see a post mortem of this event after the winter is done.

There has been something off with every El Niño development since the super La Niña +13 pattern in December 2015. Heck, you can even go back to the El Niño that was supposed to develop in 2012-2013 which fizzled around Labor Day. But at least Nemo in February fulfilled the hoped for back-loaded El Niño pattern.

[so_whats_happening]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

There has been something off with every El Niño development since the super La Niña +13 pattern in December 2015. Heck, you can even go back to the El Niño that was supposed to develop in 2012-2013 which fizzled around Labor Day. But at least Nemo in February fulfilled the hoped for back-loaded El Niño pattern.

Yea just looking at super ninos you can see less impact from peak MEI standpoint to what ONI was, ONI increased every super nino at that too. Small amount of data but an interesting occurrence none the less. To me it just sounds like the same thing we have been saying all summer that there are competing factors holding the true Nino potential back.

[raindancewx]

Locally, I can't find any 12-month periods with meaningfully less than ~4 inches of rain back to 1892. Our local "wet" season of July-Sept may finish under 1-2 inches at this point (v. 4" as average).

El Nino precipitation long-term is about 10-30% above average by season. But even average precipitation on an annual basis would require a massive shift, since we only average 0.5"/month from Oct-May.

My point with this is that US precip patterns in Jun-Aug look similar to a lot of the bigger El Ninos. So the subtropical jet / Pacific farting up moisture aspect of the El Nino looks correct, even if it is just from enhanced ocean heat rather than the canonical air pressure patterns.

For June-Aug, you have pretty diametrically opposite correlations to the -PDO and +ENSO. So I don't find it surprising that some areas are responding to the -PDO and others to the +ENSO pattern. The -PDO is actually more correlated to the response by Indonesia than ENSO is in Summer.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

The evolution was driven to some extent by the record warming of the Gulf Stream boosting the SE Ridge. So the main reason it was rain had to do with the storm track. Cool the SSTs to the East Coast  and that ridge would have been nonexistent with a near record -AO pattern for December. 
 

 

I don't entirely agree with this. I'm sure the warmer gulf stream has an impact, but a record RNA is going to cause some higher heights over the se...especially since the NAO was near neutral in the mean for the month. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

if we see like OND at 1.8, NDJ at 1.9, and DJF at 1.7, we average +1.8 ONI and a MEI of like +1.3-1.5. sounds good to me

this is almost certainly why the models are showing a moderate Nino with west-leaning forcing pattern rather than a canonical super Nino pattern

Yes. Been in line with my thoughts all along.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, griteater said:

Here it is...

Source: ECMWF | Charts

+1 to +2F sounds reasonable to me.

[griteater]

5 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Yea we have pulled ahead of the EPAC which is unusual in an El Nino and if Lee does its thing likely get pretty close on ACE as well which is just above normal as of now. We should not have gotten Franklin and Idalia forming where they did in an El Nino year.

 

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

You wonder what the magic number necessary these days is for a robust El Niño atmospheric response when +1.5 in Nino 3.4 hardly moves the needle. 

But there is more at play this year as the Atlantic Ocean temperatures are by far the warmest in these records back to 1982.  SSTs aren't everything with hurricanes, but all else equal, it does promote more and stronger storms.

 

[griteater]

On 9/3/2023 at 7:30 AM, bluewave said:

We got a record MJO 4-6 during the super El Niño in December 2015 once the IOD faded. That combination with the Nino forcing resulted in a super-Niña like +13 December in Northeast. But the blocking coming on strong in January and February saved the winter once the MJO 4-6 influence weakened. There was an interesting paper written on this effect. Plus every El Niño attempt since then has encountered interference from the WPAC warm pool . So I am even more cautious at looking at extended model output when Ninos are involved. Just look at how much further west the forcing was displaced this summer versus the strongest events. Many models missed this and had EPAC forcing in their seasonal outlooks for the summer. 
 

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00376-020-0261-x

 

Distinctive MJO Activity during the Boreal Winter of the 2015/16 Super El Niño in Comparison with Other Super El Niño Events

 

You could be right, but I'm not ready to throw in the towel on El Ninos altogether.  Since the 2009-2010 winter, we've either had Weak El Ninos (14-15, 18-19) which have tended to be highly variable and not as cold post-1980 <OR> a super El Nino (15-16) which tends to be +AO/+NAO and warm.

Here's a comparison of note...the VP pattern seen in Dec 2015 matches up favorably to the VP pattern from mid-Jan to mid-Feb in 2010 with the -VP extending back west to 150E, yet, the resulting 500mb patterns for each were vastly different, as you know.

 

 

 

 

I realize that dateline forcing, on average, affects the pattern a little differently in December compared to Jan-Feb, but it's not wildly different...and the overall point is, let's see what happens when we get a more favorable El Nino strength (moderate or strong, and not plowing forcefully into super...and also with a weaker MEI/RONI), and then roll the dice and see how much the Maritime Continent and West Pacific waters influence the pattern.  Maybe the MJO is higher amplitude than normal in a robust El Nino, and it does influence the pattern heavily again...but maybe this year's version of El Nino takes on a different route given its strength and makeup.

[brooklynwx99]

33 minutes ago, griteater said:

You could be right, but I'm not ready to throw in the towel on El Ninos altogether.  Since the 2009-2010 winter, we've either had Weak El Ninos (14-15, 18-19) which have tended to be highly variable and not as cold post-1980 <OR> a super El Nino (15-16) which tends to be +AO/+NAO and warm.

Here's a comparison of note...the VP pattern seen in Dec 2015 matches up favorably to the VP pattern from mid-Jan to mid-Feb in 2010 with the -VP extending back west to 150E, yet, the resulting 500mb patterns for each were vastly different, as you know.

 

 

 

 

I realize that dateline forcing, on average, affects the pattern a little differently in December compared to Jan-Feb, but it's not wildly different...and the overall point is, let's see what happens when we get a more favorable El Nino strength (moderate or strong, and not plowing forcefully into super...and also with a weaker MEI/RONI), and then roll the dice and see how much the Maritime Continent and West Pacific waters influence the pattern.  Maybe the MJO is higher amplitude than normal in a robust El Nino, and it does influence the pattern heavily again...but maybe this year's version of El Nino takes on a different route given its strength and makeup.

wasn’t there west leaning forcing that led to the highly favorable month-long stretch from mid Jan into Feb?

I can’t imagine that’s a coincidence

[bluewave]

9 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

wasn’t there west leaning forcing that led to the highly favorable month-long stretch from mid Jan into Feb?

I can’t imagine that’s a coincidence

That 30 day period was in effect a super modoki El Niño. Nino 4 was the warmest on record near +30 C heading into winter.  Greatest snowstorm on record in NYC around 30” and a below zero Valentine’s Day. So a greater snowstorm than all of the previous winter and a lower winter minimum temperature. But the extended cold and snow cover of the previous season was absent due to the higher background warmth following the ridiculous December 2015.  I enjoyed the snowstorm quality in January 2016 more than any individual storm in 14-15. While there were numerous lows in 14-15 below 10° around NYC, It took until 2016 to actually dip below 0° for the first time since 1994. If the December rare MJO 4-6 didn’t happen, could have been a super El Niño with more extended snow and cold than any other.

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

if we see like OND at 1.8, NDJ at 1.9, and DJF at 1.7, we average +1.8 ONI and a MEI of like +1.3-1.5. sounds good to me

this is almost certainly why the models are showing a moderate Nino with west-leaning forcing pattern rather than a canonical super Nino pattern

Yea, I can imagine anything greater than 1.5 for MEI peak.

[Great Snow 1717]

Similar type of heatwave in the east as there was in September 2015...

[so_whats_happening]

10 hours ago, griteater said:

 

But there is more at play this year as the Atlantic Ocean temperatures are by far the warmest in these records back to 1982.  SSTs aren't everything with hurricanes, but all else equal, it does promote more and stronger storms.

 

Yea agree SST's aren't everything but typically the shear profile in El Nino tends to be just a bit too much to allow extensive tropical formation like so far. It is very possible at this point we get to near 20 named storms with 7-9 hurricanes and at least 3-4 majors before the season is over which again is just not normally seen with El Nino atmosphere. At that the machine just does not want to turn off either especially if there is even any semblance of MJO going back into 8/1/2 which is still looking to happen maybe end of the month early October?

This would induce a warming episode for ENSO regions and ultimately another KW into October but would this be the last one considering we would be rather close to typical peak ENSO timeframe, time will tell of course. Need to watch how the western portion of the subsurface evolves with that idea. A nice surge in ENSO both oceanic and atmospherically would definitely cut off the Atlantic but exactly when does that happen? Certainly we should not be going into late October/November with storms.

[bluewave]

56 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Yea agree SST's aren't everything but typically the shear profile in El Nino tends to be just a bit too much to allow extensive tropical formation like so far. It is very possible at this point we get to near 20 named storms with 7-9 hurricanes and at least 3-4 majors before the season is over which again is just not normally seen with El Nino atmosphere. At that the machine just does not want to turn off either especially if there is even any semblance of MJO going back into 8/1/2 which is still looking to happen maybe end of the month early October?

This would induce a warming episode for ENSO regions and ultimately another KW into October but would this be the last one considering we would be rather close to typical peak ENSO timeframe, time will tell of course. Need to watch how the western portion of the subsurface evolves with that idea. A nice surge in ENSO both oceanic and atmospherically would definitely cut off the Atlantic but exactly when does that happen? Certainly we should not be going into late October/November with storms.

Based solely on the historic Atlantic SSTs, we would finish the season with 200-250 ACE units. So if this Nino continues to have trouble coupling, we may approach those levels. It will be interesting to see how things turn out.

 

 

 

[so_whats_happening]

58 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Based solely on the historic Atlantic SSTs, we would finish the season with 200-250 ACE units. So if this Nino continues to have trouble coupling, we may approach those levels. It will be interesting to see how things turn out.

 

 

 

Thanks for the info and wow at 200-250 ACE potential. 

[snowman19]

The end of the month into October strengthening period looks good IMO, I believe the MJO push into phases 7, 8 happens, then I think we probably get one more in November and that’s it. The SOI is responding with a run of significant negative values now, showing that this Nino is coupling well. I’m still confident in a region 3.4 trimonthly (NDJ) super peak. It also looks like the region 1+2 cooling has leveled off to just below +3.0C. The models did a good job so far showing this and they keep it at the current level through January. That region most likely has peaked, region 3 is still warming, already at super status. SOI: https://x.com/jnmet/status/1699431578659614884?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

[bluewave]

18 hours ago, griteater said:

You could be right, but I'm not ready to throw in the towel on El Ninos altogether.  Since the 2009-2010 winter, we've either had Weak El Ninos (14-15, 18-19) which have tended to be highly variable and not as cold post-1980 <OR> a super El Nino (15-16) which tends to be +AO/+NAO and warm.

Here's a comparison of note...the VP pattern seen in Dec 2015 matches up favorably to the VP pattern from mid-Jan to mid-Feb in 2010 with the -VP extending back west to 150E, yet, the resulting 500mb patterns for each were vastly different, as you know.

 

 

 

 

I realize that dateline forcing, on average, affects the pattern a little differently in December compared to Jan-Feb, but it's not wildly different...and the overall point is, let's see what happens when we get a more favorable El Nino strength (moderate or strong, and not plowing forcefully into super...and also with a weaker MEI/RONI), and then roll the dice and see how much the Maritime Continent and West Pacific waters influence the pattern.  Maybe the MJO is higher amplitude than normal in a robust El Nino, and it does influence the pattern heavily again...but maybe this year's version of El Nino takes on a different route given its strength and makeup.

The mid-December MJO 4-6 forcing completely overpowered the whole Dateline forcing pattern leading to the historic SE Ridge and +13 temperature departures. The WPAC warm pool actually muted a super El Niño at least for a month. That’s what we have been dealing with to some extent with every El Niño attempt since then.

 

 

 

 

[griteater]

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The mid-December MJO 4-6 forcing completely overpowered the whole Dateline forcing pattern leading to the historic SE Ridge and +13 temperature departures. The WPAC warm pool actually muted a super El Niño at least for a month. That’s what we have been dealing with to some extent with every El Niño attempt since then.

 

 

 

 

OK, that 10-day VP image you posted makes a lot more sense to me.  Looking back at Dec 2015 in 10-day increments, there was Dateline to E Pac uplift in early Dec, then MC to Dateline uplift in mid-Dec (your image), then back to Dateline uplift in late Dec.  But yeah, it looks like that amplified MJO wave was at least partially to blame with wrecking things in Dec 2015.  Here is what that 10-day period looks like on the JMA images...

 

The main idea in that paper (at least in the Intro I read) is that in a Super Nino, you wouldn't expect the MJO to be active and influential...and rather, you'd expect a Super Nino to moreso be fully in control of influencing the pattern.  In contrast, the weaker the ENSO, the more influence you'd expect coming from the MJO.

OK, we'll have to see how it shakes out this winter.  For periods of E U.S. winter interests, we want to see the low frequency uplift stay closer to the Dateline and not be overwhelmingly strong, and not extend too far east into the E Pac (or too far west)...and we don't want to see big amplitude MJO making a run thru Indonesia.

[bluewave]

12 hours ago, griteater said:

OK, that 10-day VP image you posted makes a lot more sense to me.  Looking back at Dec 2015 in 10-day increments, there was Dateline to E Pac uplift in early Dec, then MC to Dateline uplift in mid-Dec (your image), then back to Dateline uplift in late Dec.  But yeah, it looks like that amplified MJO wave was at least partially to blame with wrecking things in Dec 2015.  Here is what that 10-day period looks like on the JMA images...

 

The main idea in that paper (at least in the Intro I read) is that in a Super Nino, you wouldn't expect the MJO to be active and influential...and rather, you'd expect a Super Nino to moreso be fully in control of influencing the pattern.  In contrast, the weaker the ENSO, the more influence you'd expect coming from the MJO.

OK, we'll have to see how it shakes out this winter.  For periods of E U.S. winter interests, we want to see the low frequency uplift stay closer to the Dateline and not be overwhelmingly strong, and not extend too far east into the E Pac (or too far west)...and we don't want to see big amplitude MJO making a run thru Indonesia.

The timing of the historic warmth that month matched the MJO 4-6 passage very well. The record warmth began to emerge around the 10th and lingered through the 27th. Plus it coincided with the very positive NAO and AO that month. We can often see lingering effects several days past the warmest MJO phases. Which lead to the 70° warmth around Christmas.

Go to December 2015 in menu.

https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/regional/narrative/narrative.html

[snowman19]

OK, that 10-day VP image you posted makes a lot more sense to me.  Looking back at Dec 2015 in 10-day increments, there was Dateline to E Pac uplift in early Dec, then MC to Dateline uplift in mid-Dec (your image), then back to Dateline uplift in late Dec.  But yeah, it looks like that amplified MJO wave was at least partially to blame with wrecking things in Dec 2015.  Here is what that 10-day period looks like on the JMA images...

 
The main idea in that paper (at least in the Intro I read) is that in a Super Nino, you wouldn't expect the MJO to be active and influential...and rather, you'd expect a Super Nino to moreso be fully in control of influencing the pattern.  In contrast, the weaker the ENSO, the more influence you'd expect coming from the MJO.
OK, we'll have to see how it shakes out this winter.  For periods of E U.S. winter interests, we want to see the low frequency uplift stay closer to the Dateline and not be overwhelmingly strong, and not extend too far east into the E Pac (or too far west)...and we don't want to see big amplitude MJO making a run thru Indonesia.

[mention=564]bluewave[/mention] [mention=2064]griteater[/mention] [mention=13726]so_whats_happening[/mention] It’s funny you guys mention this. The latest update from the CPC…El Nino forcing has taken over. The low frequency forcing over the eastern IO and Maritime Continent getting suppressed and squashed out from the Nino signal, the rapidly strengthening +IOD, (causing subsidence there) also contributing to this. You can say goodbye to the Niña like MJO forcing. It’s the El Niño show from here on out. Here is the disco: https://x.com/selwyyyyn/status/1698988453873246281?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

[mention=564]bluewave[/mention] [mention=2064]griteater[/mention] [mention=13726]so_whats_happening[/mention] It’s funny you guys mention this. The latest update from the CPC…El Nino forcing has taken over. The low frequency forcing over the eastern IO and Maritime Continent getting suppressed and squashed out from the Nino signal, the rapidly strengthening +IOD, (causing subsidence there) also contributing to this. You can say goodbye to the Niña like MJO forcing. It’s the El Niño show from here on out. Here is the disco: https://x.com/selwyyyyn/status/1698988453873246281?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

We still haven’t seen a full coupling of the atmosphere when the trade winds and clouds are factored in. Also note how the forcing is struggling to make it east of the Dateline for another month. 

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

 while trade winds and Pacific cloudiness have not yet demonstrated sustained El Niño patterns. Overall, atmospheric indicators suggest the Pacific Ocean and atmosphere are not yet consistently reinforcing each other, as occurs during El Niño events.