El Nino 2023-2024

[George001]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I could absolutely see this month ending at +1.9C on the weeklies, completely believable

On the weeklies absolutely, I actually think it’s going to end up around +2 on the weeklies. I think for the monthly average 1.9 is a bit of a stretch but not impossible. At the current rate of strengthening it would likely be 1.7-1.8 for September. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

25 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

seems like we're coming to a consensus on the Nino strength here as the ECMWF significantly weakened the peak

Shocking-

[so_whats_happening]

11 minutes ago, George001 said:

On the weeklies absolutely, I actually think it’s going to end up around +2 on the weeklies. I think for the monthly average 1.9 is a bit of a stretch but not impossible. At the current rate of strengthening it would likely be 1.7-1.8 for September. 

What data shows this? There is no MJO wave happening or forecasted for the next two weeks (at the very least, end of month is looking less and less impressive as we move in time) so where exactly is this warming from?

We are seeing models struggle with what MJO will do next let alone get out of null. What makes this go back to 7/8/1 to allow for more Nino like processes to occur?

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, I'm not arguing that any given month would have been colder 60-70 years ago...again, I am not disputing global warming. However, that evolution of that big pre xmas event would have been mainly rain for the NE 300 years ago is my point. Last December would have sucked for snowfall, regardless. 

The evolution was driven to some extent by the record warming of the Gulf Stream boosting the SE Ridge. So the main reason it was rain had to do with the storm track. Cool the SSTs to the East Coast  and that ridge would have been nonexistent with a near record -AO pattern for December. 
 

 

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Shocking-

I'm still good with 1.7-1.9 on the trimonthly ONI with the MEI likely peaking at like 1.4-1.6

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The models actually showed this region 1+2 drop. They get it down just below +3.0C and keep it there through January, so it’s not really surprising. Also, none of the models show an October peak, they all peak it between November/December

Seasonal models seldom show nuances like that. 

[George001]

 

3 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

What data shows this? There is no MJO wave happening or forecasted for the next two weeks (at the very least, end of month is looking less and less impressive as we move in time) so where exactly is this warming from?

We are seeing models struggle with what MJO will do next let alone get out of null. What makes this go back to 7/8/1 to allow for more Nino like processes to occur?

I’m mostly going by the history of how this El Niño has been developing more than MJO forecasts. A lot of the conventional tools (MJO wave, -PDO, etc) are supposed to be working against El Niño development, but the strengthening has been in line with the more aggressive end of the envelope despite that. The subsurface is starting to warm up rapidly, and Paul Roundy told me that all that warmth in the eastern regions is going to continue building west. He has been right about how this El Niño would develop since early spring, and I don’t see why that will stop.

[snowman19]

I'm still good with 1.7-1.9 on the trimonthly ONI with the MEI likely peaking at like 1.4-1.6

It looks like the new Euro does get it above +2.0C for a month or two, it’s not showing 3 consecutive months above +2 anymore

[so_whats_happening]

45 minutes ago, George001 said:

 

I’m mostly going by the history of how this El Niño has been developing more than MJO forecasts. A lot of the conventional tools (MJO wave, -PDO, etc) are supposed to be working against El Niño development, but the strengthening has been in line with the more aggressive end of the envelope despite that. The subsurface is starting to warm up rapidly, and Paul Roundy told me that all that warmth in the eastern regions is going to continue building west. He has been right about how this El Niño would develop since early spring, and I don’t see why that will stop.

The situations that spur these large warmings is indeed MJO driven so im not sure what that comment is about. If you can show me model forecasts from months ago that are indeed falling inline with current observations that would be wonderful. The subsurface warms due to these WWB/MJO movements we saw it back in February/ March, May/ June, and end of August there is nothing in the pipeline to keep driving the subsurface warming from the last WWB/MJO progression that happened so where is this continued rapid warming coming from? I do question though what happens if we have another dive in heat content after this last wave? We definitely see the stall situation we had in second half of June and July. We do not seem to be having the typical WWB region around 90E setting up this go around which helps feed the progression of an MJO wave/ WWB event with a KW in the subsurface. So again I question where is the extended warming coming from?

I personally will not delve into the whole twitter thing as that app is just a fools app, always has been. I personally like to take multiple perspectives rather than just find one thought that suits my own thoughts I mean we are already into September and by next week mid September we are nearing month, maybe month and a half until peak typically hits with again not a whole lot in the pipeline showing up. Until another MJO push/WWB event happens which again the end of the month event that was originally talked about doesn't look to happen anymore we flatline and even cool.

Edited to add 30 day total U winds with forecast and the last 90 days. I will also add these U wind forecasts are not perfect they tend to over exaggerate not only trade wind anom but the weakening of the trades (or reversal moments). So it best to take a more middle of the ground approach but but nothing again showing up where is the warming to come from?

[brooklynwx99]

Paul Roundy super Nino

[George001]

31 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

The situations that spur these large warmings is indeed MJO driven so im not sure what that comment is about. If you can show me model forecasts from months ago that are indeed falling inline with current observations that would be wonderful. The subsurface warms due to these WWB/MJO movements we saw it back in February/ March, May/ June, and end of August there is nothing in the pipeline to keep driving the subsurface warming from the last WWB/MJO progression that happened so where is this continued rapid warming coming from? I do question though what happens if we have another dive in heat content after this last wave? We definitely see the stall situation we had in second half of June and July. We do not seem to be having the typical WWB region around 90E setting up this go around which helps feed the progression of an MJO wave/ WWB event with a KW in the subsurface. So again I question where is the extended warming coming from?

I personally will not delve into the whole twitter thing as that app is just a fools app, always has been. I personally like to take multiple perspectives rather than just find one thought that suits my own thoughts I mean we are already into September and by next week mid September we are nearing month, maybe month and a half until peak typically hits with again not a whole lot in the pipeline showing up. Until another MJO push/WWB event happens which again the end of the month event that was originally talked about doesn't look to happen anymore we flatline and even cool.

Edited to add 30 day total U winds with forecast and the last 90 days.

I am mostly referring to the statistical guidance, there has been a large gap between the statistical and dynamical guidance and according to the latest data the OBS have been running significantly warmer than the statistical guidance mean and slightly warmer than the dynamical guidance mean. For some reason I can’t post pictures here so I’ll just post the source I used. Snowman19 was talking about how the models have been underestimating the +IOD, which could potentially enhance the development of the El Niño even without a big MJO wave. I am also skeptical of the MJO forecasts, they have been awful in the winter, changing wildly every update. We will see though. I’m mostly going by history (the history of stronger ninos developing after multi year ninos, what ninos were a similar strength to this one now and how did those develop) what the El Niño looks like right now, and the dynamical model prorjections. I am ignoring the statistical guidance because it has been underestimating the strength of the nino, shown by the IRI charts showing trendline of the the OBS over the past 22 months compared to the various dynamical  and statistical guidance.

You did bring up some good points that I didn’t really consider, so I’ll look into those. I am more of a stats guy with fairly large gaps in my understanding of the actual meteorology, so I am open to being corrected if I get something wrong about the actual processes that drive ENSO. That is very much a work in progress for me haha

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table#

[snowman19]

39 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

Paul Roundy super Nino

Before you decide to spike the ball and act like a dick, I’d wait to see the final result. But I guess you have it figured out already like you did last winter with the epic pattern. It could very well be a super El Niño when you average out the 3 consecutive months @brooklynwx99 Here you go…new Euro plumes….still shows a super El Niño: https://x.com/mario___ramirez/status/1699126469518074024?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

[brooklynwx99]

8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Before you decide to spike the ball and act like a dick, I’d wait to see the final result. But I guess you have it figured out already like you did last winter with the epic pattern. It could very well be a super El Niño when you average out the 3 consecutive months

I'm not acting like a dick at all. stop projecting  

where did I even spike the ball? you don't think "Paul Roundy told me" is at least a little bit funny?

like come on. if someone came in here and said that JB told them it would be a cold and snowy winter you'd be foaming at the mouth and biting down on your keyboard talking about how vapid and asinine the person is lmao

[George001]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Before you decide to spike the ball and act like a dick, I’d wait to see the final result. But I guess you have it figured out already like you did last winter with the epic pattern. It could very well be a super El Niño when you average out the 3 consecutive months

Even with the Euro backing off a bit the low end of the envelope is what, 1.8-1.9? I would still favor a super nino as the most likely outcome, and even if we are wrong I would still say Paul Roundy had the right idea. He said in March “it’s going to be a big one, it will build from east to west”. If we get a +1.9 nino that built from east to west, that means we still got a big one that moved from east to west. 

[so_whats_happening]

1 minute ago, George001 said:

I am mostly referring to the statistical guidance, there has been a large gap between the statistical and dynamical guidance and according to the latest data the OBS have been running significantly warmer than the statistical guidance mean and slightly warmer than the dynamical guidance mean. For some reason I can’t post pictures here so I’ll just post the source I used. Snowman19 was talking about how the models have been underestimating the +IOD, which could potentially enhance the development of the El Niño even without a big MJO wave. I am also skeptical of the MJO forecasts, they have been awful in the winter, changing wildly every update. We will see though. I’m mostly going by history (the history of stronger ninos developing after multi year ninos, what ninos were a similar strength to this one now and how did those develop) what the El Niño looks like right now, and the dynamical model prorjections. I am ignoring the statistical guidance because it has been underestimating the strength of the nino, shown by the IRI charts showing trendline of the the OBS over the past 22 months compared to the various dynamical  and statistical guidance. 
 

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table#

Im aware of the large gap in Statistical and Dynamic. That is why I mentioned it is best to go middle ground versus one or the other. It follows the same idea of taking multiple different models for a winter storm forecast into consideration. I cannot agree though obs are warmer than dynamical mean (dynamic has been way too aggressive over the last couple of months) but can agree on things being warmer than statistical as this is to be expected.

As for the IOD that has just turned positive after months of models being too aggressive with forming the +IOD. The idea of a +IOD is push the -VP further east so the MJO can also respond further east, +IOD alone does not create WWB events but it can help in placing them into better spots when they do initiate, if they do.

Im curious why you go strictly with dynamical forecasts? Is there a particular reason behind it or it fits the call better? We also have not had a 3 year Nina event followed by a strong/super Nino. The only years the come close to multiple Nina years followed by a strong/super event have been 1972 and 2009 so we are indeed in uncharted territory. Ill agree MJO (RMM plots) are not exactly the greatest they do tend to have issues and are based on model forecasts but that is why you do not take them to heart for every forecast you try to get the general idea of what the model is trying to predict. If everything we have talked about was exact we wouldn't be having these conversations or a discussion that has been 93 pages on ENSO. lol

I will say this I get where you are coming from but without reasons of why this or that will occur it just doesn't help the cause, I personally am all about getting as much info as I can provide out and let the rest follow as it does. I just wish information was presented in the same manner from opposing viewpoints is all, I am just not a big fan of blanket statements or non supported posts is all. I hope to hear snowman chimes in on this too and it is not just you.

[George001]

6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I'm not acting like a dick at all. stop projecting  

where did I even spike the ball? you don't think "Paul Roundy told me" is at least a little bit funny?

like come on. if someone came in here and said that JB told them it would be a cold and snowy winter you'd be foaming at the mouth and biting down on your keyboard talking about how vapid and asinine the person is lmao

Yeah, I didn’t have a problem with that comment. I was actually kind of poking fun at myself a bit, since I don’t really understand the meteorology behind what drives ENSO I’m just deferring to Paul Roundy since he does. I don’t particularly care about trying to sound smart or pretend to be the smartest person in the room, if I did I wouldn’t post. Im more concerned with tracking the event and learning more about enso development. 

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, George001 said:

Yeah, I didn’t have a problem with that comment. I was actually kind of poking fun at myself a bit, since i don’t really understand the meteorology behind what drives ENSO I’m just deferring to Paul Roundy since he does.

look, I think this can end up as a very low end super Nino, but there just isn't much in the way of tropical forcing or WWBs that'll keep it going as of now. I can see things stagnating as we head through the month

[Typhoon Tip]

I start to wonder if the top 20 or 30% of this warm enso is really the foundation of the elevated planetary state... with the enso on top/elevated starting point - so to speak.

sort of a concerted notion with the RONI ideas but not entirely...  It's like the flip side of the side coin.   The real El Nino is something like the 70th percentile of what these SST are flashing.  ha

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

I start to wonder if the top 20 or 30% of this warm enso is really the foundation of the elevated planetary state...

sort of a concerted notion with the RONI ideas but entirely...  It's like the flip side of the side coin.   The real El Nino is something like the 70th percentile of what these SST are flashing.  ha

I think this is part of the reason why the seasonals are showing what they're showing

[GaWx]

55 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Before you decide to spike the ball and act like a dick, I’d wait to see the final result. But I guess you have it figured out already like you did last winter with the epic pattern. It could very well be a super El Niño when you average out the 3 consecutive months @brooklynwx99 Here you go…new Euro plumes….still shows a super El Niño: https://x.com/mario___ramirez/status/1699126469518074024?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

Eyeballing it tells me the new Euro ONI peak is near or just under +2.25 for NDJ vs +2.40 on the prior run. Feb is ~+2.05.

 So, although still well within super peak strength, it did drop slightly. CFS dropped more than slightly vs a few weeks ago but it is an inferior model.

[George001]

23 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Im aware of the large gap in Statistical and Dynamic. That is why I mentioned it is best to go middle ground versus one or the other. It follows the same idea of taking multiple different models for a winter storm forecast into consideration. I cannot agree though obs are warmer than dynamical mean (dynamic has been way too aggressive over the last couple of months) but can agree on things being warmer than statistical as this is to be expected.

As for the IOD that has just turned positive after months of models being too aggressive with forming the +IOD. The idea of a +IOD is push the -VP further east so the MJO can also respond further east, +IOD alone does not create WWB events but it can help in placing them into better spots when they do initiate, if they do.

Im curious why you go strictly with dynamical forecasts? Is there a particular reason behind it or it fits the call better? We also have not had a 3 year Nina event followed by a strong/super Nino. The only years the come close to multiple Nina years followed by a strong/super event have been 1972 and 2009 so we are indeed in uncharted territory. Ill agree MJO (RMM plots) are not exactly the greatest they do tend to have issues and are based on model forecasts but that is why you do not take them to heart for every forecast you try to get the general idea of what the model is trying to predict. If everything we have talked about was exact we wouldn't be having these conversations or a discussion that has been 93 pages on ENSO. lol

I will say this I get where you are coming from but without reasons of why this or that will occur it just doesn't help the cause, I personally am all about getting as much info as I can provide out and let the rest follow as it does. I just wish information was presented in the same manner from opposing viewpoints is all, I am just not a big fan of blanket statements or non supported posts is all. I hope to hear snowman chimes in on this too and it is not just you.

I just dug up the exact numbers instead of eyeballing it, and my previous post was wrong. The dynamical guidance had a mean of +1.3 for JJA, and the actual mean was +1.1. I see why you were saying I was incorrect about the dynamical guidance (since it has been too aggressive the past couple months). It appears like you already did this, but I went back to June and looked at what the JJA forecast was, and it forecasted a mean of +1.12! That’s pretty much dead on. I still think it’s interesting though that the dynamical guidance keeps upping the strength despite having been too aggressive the past couple months. 

[bluewave]

22 minutes ago, George001 said:

I just dug up the exact numbers instead of eyeballing it, and my previous post was wrong. The dynamical guidance had a mean of +1.3 for JJA, and the actual mean was +1.1. I see why you were saying I was incorrect about the dynamical guidance (since it has been too aggressive the past couple months). It appears like you already did this, but I went back to June and looked at what the JJA forecast was, and it forecasted a mean of +1.12! That’s pretty much dead on. I still think it’s interesting though that the dynamical guidance keeps upping the strength despite having been too aggressive the past couple months. 

Most of the dynamical ENSO guidance are just repeater models. They exaggerate the conditions going forward that they were initialized at. When was the last time any of those models successfully forecasted a change from the state that they were initialized under until later in the game when it became obvious?

[so_whats_happening]

15 minutes ago, George001 said:

I just dug up the exact numbers instead of eyeballing it, and my previous post was wrong. The dynamical guidance had a mean of +1.3 for JJA, and the actual mean was +1.1. I see why you were saying I was incorrect about the dynamical guidance (since it has been too aggressive the past couple months). It appears like you already did this, but I went back to June and looked at what the JJA forecast was, and it forecasted a mean of +1.12! That’s pretty much dead on. I still think it’s interesting though that the dynamical guidance keeps upping the strength despite having been too aggressive the past couple months. 

So im not sure how it is set up within the model suite (as each one is different) but it most likely is reading off what is currently happening. So say we have quite the month of warming taking place, say .4C increase that month, the model will initialize and keep that same idea going strong. So just like the GFS and Euro over time it tends to go with climo after a certain amount of time meaning if it sees an El Nino like setup it will push it more toward a Nino base state meaning the atmosphere and ocean couple better the longer it goes out. If things were coupled rather well I would no doubt agree Super Nino is in store but we have seen it multiple times where models are just too ambitious with the pattern evolving like bringing consistent -VP further into central Pac, killing off the -PDO, increasing the +IOD, etc hence why you tend to get these high output readings. When it does start to incorporate the ebbs and flows it will ultimately lower the peak of some the higher output models while others will warm from their cooler state. Of course the erroneous model outputs always skew things too so it is very possible that some these rather extreme outputs are putting the dynamical model average a bit higher than say reality might be, just the same as statistical average may be skewed further down for the same reasons.

[griteater]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

Do you or does anyone else have the new Euro 2 meter temperature anomaly for DJF? Thanks in advance.

Here it is...

Source: ECMWF | Charts

[Terpeast]

6 minutes ago, griteater said:

Here it is...

Source: ECMWF | Charts

Don't see any BN departures. That says a lot!

(selfishly, being in the mid-atlantic, I'm getting more excited about a near-normal winter which will be "frigid" compared to the last 7 years)

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Don't see any BN departures. That says a lot!

(selfishly, being in the mid-atlantic, I'm getting more excited about a near-normal winter which will be "frigid" compared to the last 7 years)

that's because Dec skews Jan/Feb warm, which are normal to slightly below normal

also, seasonals are almost always too warm overall. it's rare to ever see solidly below average temps in the CONUS

look at the CanSIPS for last year... it got the warmth in the E US right, but it was way too warm in the W US

[griteater]

CANSIPS all in on active southern stream in split-flow

[so_whats_happening]

5 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Don't see any BN departures. That says a lot!

(selfishly, being in the mid-atlantic, I'm getting more excited about a near-normal winter which will be "frigid" compared to the last 7 years)

lol yea i mean at this point im perfectly fine with an above normal temp for DJF. Just give a foot snowstorm and call it a winter. Hitting average all accounts would be like hitting the jackpot in my eyes!

[George001]

6 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

lol yea i mean at this point im perfectly fine with an above normal temp for DJF. Just give a foot snowstorm and call it a winter. Hitting average all accounts would be like hitting the jackpot in my eyes!

I’d take a 2017-2018 type winter and run. It had some really mild stretches, averaged AN but overall but was very snowy winter with 2 blizzards. March 2018 was incredible. I had never seen so much snow in March like that before. There was about 30 inches of heavy wet snow (from 2 back to back storms) piled up, and the snowpack lasted nearly the entire month despite us missing out on the next couple of storms. That more than made up for the mild temps the previous month.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I start to wonder if the top 20 or 30% of this warm enso is really the foundation of the elevated planetary state... with the enso on top/elevated starting point - so to speak.

sort of a concerted notion with the RONI ideas but not entirely...  It's like the flip side of the side coin.   The real El Nino is something like the 70th percentile of what these SST are flashing.  ha

Very weak event so far in regard to typical developing El Niño atmospheric response.