El Nino 2023-2024

[snowman19]

OHC is keeping up its steady rise. It is as of ~Aug 30th near +1.30 and not far from the highest so far this El Niño:

Not surprised. At this point, I think a +2 or higher OHC come November is becoming very, very likely given what is projected to occur later on this month

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, roardog said:

1+2 under 3.0 for the first time since June I believe 

The 3.4 and 4 regions have been steadily rising while it looks like 1.2 has peaked. You can also see the subsurface heat spreading further west than it has been. The big question is if the early peak in the east allows 3.4 to reach 2.0 before it levels off for a while?

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Not surprised. At this point, I think a +2 or higher OHC come November is becoming very, very likely given what is projected to occur later on this month

 I think that a +2+ Nov OHC is quite possible, especially as regards the 3rd column of the table found here:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

 Note the +1.40 of June of 2023 in the table. Now compare to the OHC graph that I posted above. June doesn't even rise past +1.35 at any point during the month on this graph and thus the month as a whole when eyeballing it is only ~+1.25. Thus the table is ~0.15 warmer than the graph. July in the table is +1.02 whereas the graph says it is only ~+0.90. So, the table is ~0.12 warmer than the graph. August in the table is +1.10 vs ~+1.05 on the graph (table ~0.05 warmer). So, although the difference has been shrinking, the table could continue being slightly warmer than what the graph suggests.

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The 3.4 and 4 regions have been steadily rising while it looks like 1.2 has peaked. You can also see the subsurface heat spreading further west than it has been. The big question is if the early peak in the east allows 3.4 to reach 2.0 before it levels off for a while?

It's been a pretty impressive drop in the last 7 days and the opposite of what this map has looked like all summer.

[so_whats_happening]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The 3.4 and 4 regions have been steadily rising while it looks like 1.2 has peaked. You can also see the subsurface heat spreading further west than it has been. The big question is if the lower departures in the east allow 3.4 to reach 2.0 before it levels off for a while?

Yea it looks as though 1+2 has peaked and we may be near peak of 3 the next few weeks (end of month should really let us know) should indicate whether or not this is true.

When i get a chance ill post but i have july to august monthlies for tao subsurface and you can see quite the change and septembers will be no different. Wish i had may and june but didnt even think about saving them.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 9/3/2023 at 9:10 PM, bluewave said:

That’s due to the size of the troughs shrinking relative to similar teleconnections in the past. The trough was only to get as deep in a more limited area of the Mid-Atlantic. In a cooler climate, the record -EPO+PNA -NAO would have  produced similar temperatures to 2009 with a much more expansive trough. We have seen similar instances of the warming teleconnection pattern across all seasons. The record -AO and -PNA last December should have been much colder and snowier in the Northeast had it occurred back in the 1950s to 1970s. Many cold and snowy -PNA -AOs back in the old days. But it’s a rarity to get cold -PNAs these days. Even -AO +PNA patterns are getting warmer as was the case with the Christmas flood cutter in 2020. Don also hade a great series of posts on the warming -AO and -NAO patterns. 

I don't think a record RNA helping to induce an early phase would have led to a snowy outcome for the northeast in 356BC, either. The PV lobe last December got pinned to the west of the the downstream NAO block and phased with a western SW. That has nothing to do with global warming. In the mean, the month of December had an intense RNA and a near neutral NAO with one waisted block flex.

 

Anyway, IDK..the west PAC looks alot different than 1997 to me. That doesn't mean we can't have a mild winter...just saying.

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

The CONUS pattern isn’t that similar. The 2009 western ridge was way better placed for cool anomalies over the east and you had a simultaneous NAO block that kept it trapped in the northeast. If we had a 2009 pattern this year, it would be much colder. Not as cold as 2009 but a lot closer than this year was. 

The overattributation of global warming is mind numbing. 

[SnoSki14]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think a record RNA helping to induce an early phase would have led to a snowy outcome for the northeast in 356BC, either. The PV lobe last December got pinned to the west of the the downstream NAO block and phased with a western SW. That has nothing to do with global warming.

 

Anyway, IDK..the west PAC looks alot different than 1997 to me.

The PV is not as cold, expansive and strong as it used to be either and there's plenty of data to back that up.

And that is one of the reasons why we're seeing ridges phase together despite strong blocking while the shrinking PV lobe gets more and more pinched off. 

I think you're downplaying the effect global warming has had on the overall pattern. I'm with Don & Bluewave on this one

Hell even Forky gets this right. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The PV is not as cold, expansive and strong as it used to be either and there's plenty of data to back that up.

And that is one of the reasons why we're seeing ridges phase together despite strong blocking while the shrinking PV lobe gets more and more pinched off. 

I think you're downplaying the effect global warming has had on the overall pattern. I'm with Don & Bluewave on this one

Hell even Forky gets this right. 

First of all, you don't need to back that up. Global warming is real and I am not debating that. I'm sure it is impacting things, but but bad breaks like we got last December have always been, are and always will be more prevalent in a flawed pattern. We had an extreme -PNA in conjunction with that NAO block...that is why we had the rige over se Canada and the se US.

The truth probably lies somewhere in the middle. 

[bluewave]

9 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Yea it looks as though 1+2 has peaked and we may be near peak of 3 the next few weeks (end of month should really let us know) should indicate whether or not this is true.

When i get a chance ill post but i have july to august monthlies for tao subsurface and you can see quite the change and septembers will be no different. Wish i had may and june but didnt even think about saving them.

Wonder if it’s possible to get a peak in 3.4 during October since there can be a 1-2 month lag between 1.2 and areas further west?

[so_whats_happening]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Wonder if it’s possible to get a peak in 3.4 during October since there can be a 1-2 month lag between 1.2 and areas further west?

Possibly but definitely feel November is now a better fit overall, for now.

Btw here are those two monthlies from TAO and the most recent (4th should update later but not much should have changed)

I do wish this showed further west and east though would like to see how the subsurface is reacting in those areas as well.

[griteater]

September Euro Seasonal update is in.  Ensemble mean at the surface has a KU low pressure anomaly for Jan-Mar lol (2nd image).  Aleutian Low anomaly is well west

 

 

 

 

[griteater]

Euro Seasonal Sep update on NAO index.  Dec moved more positive this run (+NAO).  Jan stayed the same (-NAO).  Feb moved more negative (-NAO).  -NAO in Mar as well

 

[bluewave]

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think a record RNA helping to induce an early phase would have led to a snowy outcome for the northeast in 356BC, either. The PV lobe last December got pinned to the west of the the downstream NAO block and phased with a western SW. That has nothing to do with global warming. In the mean, the month of December had an intense RNA and a near neutral NAO with one waisted block flex.

 

Anyway, IDK..the west PAC looks alot different than 1997 to me. That doesn't mean we can't have a mild winter...just saying.

Last December would have been colder and snowier if we had the colder -AO-PNA climatology from the 1950s and 1960s.  Notice how much weaker the 500 mb lows were this past December. The -AO was the 2nd lowest on record for December with no strong 50/50 vortex to show for it. Even the -PNA upper low was weaker.

[griteater]

Updated El Nino SST Base Chart with Best Match years with August data now in

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Last December would have been colder and snowier if we had the colder -AO-PNA climatology from the 1950s and 1960s.  Notice how much weaker the 500 mb lows were this past December. The -AO was the 2nd lowest on record for December with no strong 50/50 vortex to show for it. Even the -PNA upper low was weaker.

Well, I'm not arguing that any given month would have been colder 60-70 years ago...again, I am not disputing global warming. However, that evolution of that big pre xmas event would have been mainly rain for the NE 300 years ago is my point. Last December would have sucked for snowfall, regardless. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, griteater said:

September Euro Seasonal update is in.  Ensemble mean at the surface has a KU low pressure anomaly for Jan-Mar lol (2nd image).  Aleutian Low anomaly is well west

 

 

 

 

I wonder how long until this isn't ignored....

[George001]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Last December would have been colder and snowier if we had the colder -AO-PNA climatology from the 1950s and 1960s.  Notice how much weaker the 500 mb lows were this past December. The -AO was the 2nd lowest on record for December with no strong 50/50 vortex to show for it. Even the -PNA upper low was weaker.

Yeah shit like “nao blocks linking up with the SE ridge” seem to happen more often. I have a hard time believing that the AGW induced near record warm atlantic SSTs did not play a role in us getting skunked last December. (Possibly acting to pump up the SE ridge and infuse more marine air into storms, screwing the SNE coastline). There was a storm in mid Dec I remember that was a decently favorable track but was all rain outside of the well interior, but the temp profile was just a couple degrees too warm. December climo in general seems to have deteriorated much quicker than Jan-Mar, likely because it was the most marginal to begin with. If you add a couple degrees to the ocean temp in an already marginal temp profile, that can easily take storms from a foot of heavy wet snow to 36-37 degrees and rain. March has much cooler Atlantic SSTs, so we have a bit more “room for error” with the warming oceans. Eventually that will get fucked over too, but I think it’s going to be a favorable month for quite a bit longer than December. 

[griteater]

17 minutes ago, griteater said:

Updated El Nino SST Base Chart with Best Match years with August data now in

Here is what the composite for the SST Base Best Match years looks like.  East-biased Aleutian Low / Split-Flow along the West Coast / Classic West-Based -NAO

 

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 8/12/2023 at 12:37 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/08/preliminary-analysis-of-extratropical.html?m=1

 

1 hour ago, griteater said:

September Euro Seasonal update is in.  Ensemble mean at the surface has a KU low pressure anomaly for Jan-Mar lol (2nd image).  Aleutian Low anomaly is well west

 

 

 

 

 

1 hour ago, griteater said:

Euro Seasonal Sep update on NAO index.  Dec moved more positive this run (+NAO).  Jan stayed the same (-NAO).  Feb moved more negative (-NAO).  -NAO in Mar as well

 

 

4 minutes ago, griteater said:

Here is what the composite for the SST Base Best Match years looks like.  East-biased Aleutian Low / Split-Flow along the West Coast / Classic West-Based -NAO

 

 

 

 

It's always important to keep an open mind. ...Back on 8/12 I posted why I don't feel the polar domain is the slam dunk that some think it is this year.

[George001]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, I'm not arguing that any given month would have been colder 60-70 years ago...again, I am not disputing global warming. However, that evolution of that big pre xmas event would have been mainly rain for the NE 300 years ago is my point. Last December would have sucked for snowfall, regardless. 

The pre big xmas event sure, I’ll give you that one, but what about the earlier month storm that had a decent track and just was a few degrees too warm? The pre Xmas storm very well might have been rain 300 years ago, I don’t know for sure but that one wasn’t close to being snow for us. It’s the strong mid month storm that was being compared to Dec 1992 for a while that I think we really got boned by AGW. The storm track was decent but it ended up being rain outside of the deep interior and mountains. Hell, even Dec 1992 probably would have been much better for the immediate coastline with a slightly cooler thermal profile. It’s kind of a double edged sword. You get more moisture (can actually lead to more snow IF you are cold enough), but for areas like mine closer to the coast the warm Atlantic SSTs and more marginal climo to begin with makes us susceptible to reaching a “tipping point” where the increased moisture and stronger storms no longer outweighs the milder thermal profile leading to a quicker reduction in average snowfall.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, George001 said:

The pre big xmas event sure, I’ll give you that one, but what about the earlier month storm that had a decent track and just was a few degrees too warm? The pre Xmas storm very well might have been rain 300 years ago, I don’t know for sure but that one wasn’t close to being snow for us. It’s the strong mid month storm that was being compared to Dec 1992 for a while that I think we really got boned by AGW. The storm track was decent but it ended up being rain outside of the deep interior and mountains. Hell, even Dec 1992 probably would have been much better for the immediate coastline with a slightly cooler thermal profile. It’s kind of a double edged sword. You get more moisture (can actually lead to more snow IF you are cold enough), but for areas like mine closer to the coast the warm Atlantic SSTs and more marginal climo to begin with makes us susceptible to reaching a “tipping point” where the increased moisture and stronger storms no longer outweighs the milder thermal profile leading to a quicker reduction in average snowfall.

I would have to go back and look at the mid month event specifically, but I agree with this for the most part.

[George001]

26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would have to go back and look at the mid month event specifically, but I agree with this for the most part.

That’s why In terms of winter prospects I really hope I am wrong about the polar domain and the seasonal models have the right idea. We are likely punting December regardless, those tend to suck to begin with in strong or super Ninos. For this winter, I think something like 14-15 or 02-03 (both cold and snowy) are not in the cards. The path to a decent winter is something like 12-13, where overall it’s a mild winter but when we do get our windows later in the winter we capitalize. I don’t remember that winter having a ton of storms, but at least for my area we had 2 huge ones with 2 feet+ (early Feb and early Mar blizzards). I am fairly down on this upcoming winter overall, but I will acknowledge that if we can get things to break right something like 2012-2013 (mild but snowy, capitalized in Feb and Mar) is in the cards. If I’m going to be wrong I think it will be like that, I would be shocked if we have below normal temps though.

[snowman19]

@Gawx The CPC weekly update has 3.4 up to +1.6C and it’s only 9/5….maybe the models showing September getting up to +1.9C aren’t so crazy… https://x.com/mario___ramirez/status/1699078869762888163?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

[snowman19]

Wonder if it’s possible to get a peak in 3.4 during October since there can be a 1-2 month lag between 1.2 and areas further west?

The models actually showed this region 1+2 drop. They get it down just below +3.0C and keep it there through January, so it’s not really surprising. Also, none of the models show an October peak, they all peak it between November/December

[brooklynwx99]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wonder how long until this isn't ignored....

if the seasonals are still showing this for the October runs, then that's likely the point where they're likely right on how things will generally go. I think we are approaching that point

[GaWx]

49 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@Gawx The CPC weekly update has 3.4 up to +1.6C and it’s only 9/5….maybe the models showing September getting up to +1.9C aren’t so crazy… https://x.com/mario___ramirez/status/1699078869762888163?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

I agree that it's possible although a steep climb for the next 3.5 weeks to ~+2.2 would be needed. I do see that ERSST caught up to OISST for August as a while vs it being slightly cooler than OISST for many months. So, that ups thise chances somewhat.

*Edited for correction*

[George001]

28 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@Gawx The CPC weekly update has 3.4 up to +1.6C and it’s only 9/5….maybe the models showing September getting up to +1.9C aren’t so crazy… https://x.com/mario___ramirez/status/1699078869762888163?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

1.9 would be tough to get for the monthly average, but I do think we will breach 2.0 by late month on the weeklies, with maybe a 1.7-1.8 on the monthlies. Either way, 1.6 on the weeklies in early September is very impressive and is even more data in support of this El Niño becoming super.

[snowman19]

1.9 would be tough to get for the monthly average, but I do think we will breach 2.0 by late month on the weeklies, with maybe a 1.7-1.8 on the monthlies. Either way, 1.6 on the weeklies in early September is very impressive and is even more data in support of this El Niño becoming super.

I could absolutely see this month ending at +1.9C on the weeklies, completely believable

[brooklynwx99]

seems like we're coming to a consensus on the Nino strength here as the ECMWF significantly weakened the peak