El Nino 2023-2024

[so_whats_happening]

Looks like CPC site finally updated after 2-3 weeks without an update.

Here is the subsurface animation

 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, so_whats_happening said:

Looks like CPC site finally updated after 2-3 weeks without an update.

Here is the subsurface animation

Thanks for posting. That gives us a clearer picture why the upper ocean heat anomalies have gone to around +1.2 recently. Looks like the +2 regions above 150 meters have expanded westward. Probably need to see what happens following this more Niña-like interval to know when the next warming spike at the surface occurs like we just saw. This evolution since last winter has been pretty unique. So we don’t have a collection of analogs to compare it to. The big question is what the ENSO regions need to warm to for the forcing to shift further east than we have seen? 

[so_whats_happening]

50 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Thanks for posting. That gives us a clearer picture why the upper ocean heat anomalies have gone to around +1.2 recently. Looks like the +2 regions above 150 meters have expanded westward. Probably need to see what happens following this more Niña-like interval to know when the next warming spike at the surface occurs like we just saw. This evolution since last winter has been pretty unique. So we don’t have a collection of analogs to compare it to. The big question is what the ENSO regions need to warm to for the forcing to shift further east than we have seen? 

Of course what I find interesting is the cooling that has taken place in both surface and subsurface in the WPAC for the last 3 weeks. That last bout of warming did indeed create quite the punch while cooling things further west. May have one more solid punch before we start the slow reversal as the waters will start to have cooled too much to allow further subsurface warming no more warm pool out west means no more fueling the El Nino. May end up being a November peak instead of October as originally thought given the way the waves have been setting up.

If we do in fact have this MJO impulse come EOM to early October it would lead to warming through much of the 1st and 2nd weeks of October then we will probably have a much better gauge for what subsurface should look like and if it does actually cool down enough we have to see how we end this one most were undercut with cold anomalies and left a warm pool further west while surface cooled dramatically in the EPAC.

I honestly forget what page I had it written down but we seem to have smaller impacts in between some of the bigger waves that have come through. We seem to still be riding the 3 month big wave situation end of February to early March, end of May to early June, and now middle to end of August. This last one picked up a little quicker as we are very much out of the La Nina hangover and seemed to have sped things up a bit. Given this look I would say the next large wave impact would be actually closer to the end of October and honestly it is pure speculation at this point but so far the pattern hasn't changed all that much. Maybe a little impulse in between the bigger one toward the end of October? We seemed to have those with the past bigger warmings. Thinking of those smaller ones to help maintain the Nino temp levels and not allow too much cooling in between. 

Sorry for the long post.

[so_whats_happening]

On 9/1/2023 at 8:14 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its not exceedingly rare for the PDO and PNA to part ways...I actually think that they will this year.

Can definitely put this to the test coming up. Euro mid to long range is trying to throw a pretty nice +PNA. Of course leaves us in the East potentially vulnerable but that is another story.

Latest PDO values should be coming out soon but with the warm pool still ever present around Japan I doubt we see much warming of the values take hold. At the very least it is nice to see storms not going down the west coast that is a good sign!

[griteater]

George added a poll for this year's max El Nino strength if you haven't seen it: 

What strength will the El Niño peak at in 2023-2024? - Weather Forecasting and Discussion - American Weather (americanwx.com)

 

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, so_whats_happening said:

Of course what I find interesting is the cooling that has taken place in both surface and subsurface in the WPAC for the last 3 weeks. That last bout of warming did indeed create quite the punch while cooling things further west. May have one more solid punch before we start the slow reversal as the waters will start to have cooled too much to allow further subsurface warming no more warm pool out west means no more fueling the El Nino. May end up being a November peak instead of October as originally thought given the way the waves have been setting up.

If we do in fact have this MJO impulse come EOM to early October it would lead to warming through much of the 1st and 2nd weeks of October then we will probably have a much better gauge for what subsurface should look like and if it does actually cool down enough we have to see how we end this one most were undercut with cold anomalies and left a warm pool further west while surface cooled dramatically in the EPAC.

I honestly forget what page I had it written down but we seem to have smaller impacts in between some of the bigger waves that have come through. We seem to still be riding the 3 month big wave situation end of February to early March, end of May to early June, and now middle to end of August. This last one picked up a little quicker as we are very much out of the La Nina hangover and seemed to have sped things up a bit. Given this look I would say the next large wave impact would be actually closer to the end of October and honestly it is pure speculation at this point but so far the pattern hasn't changed all that much. Maybe a little impulse in between the bigger one toward the end of October? We seemed to have those with the past bigger warmings. Thinking of those smaller ones to help maintain the Nino temp levels and not allow too much cooling in between. 

Sorry for the long post.

Impending MJO has really weakened on guidance the last few days per link below on models that were really impressed like the Gfs suite and Bomm. Eps and extended Eps were never that impressed with it from the start and still aren't. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

[roardog]

7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Impending MJO has really weakened on guidance the last few days per link below on models that were really impressed like the Gfs suite and Bomm. Eps and extended Eps were never that impressed with it from the start and still aren't. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

It’s been pretty much the same story most of the year. 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Of course what I find interesting is the cooling that has taken place in both surface and subsurface in the WPAC for the last 3 weeks. That last bout of warming did indeed create quite the punch while cooling things further west. May have one more solid punch before we start the slow reversal as the waters will start to have cooled too much to allow further subsurface warming no more warm pool out west means no more fueling the El Nino. May end up being a November peak instead of October as originally thought given the way the waves have been setting up.

If we do in fact have this MJO impulse come EOM to early October it would lead to warming through much of the 1st and 2nd weeks of October then we will probably have a much better gauge for what subsurface should look like and if it does actually cool down enough we have to see how we end this one most were undercut with cold anomalies and left a warm pool further west while surface cooled dramatically in the EPAC.

I honestly forget what page I had it written down but we seem to have smaller impacts in between some of the bigger waves that have come through. We seem to still be riding the 3 month big wave situation end of February to early March, end of May to early June, and now middle to end of August. This last one picked up a little quicker as we are very much out of the La Nina hangover and seemed to have sped things up a bit. Given this look I would say the next large wave impact would be actually closer to the end of October and honestly it is pure speculation at this point but so far the pattern hasn't changed all that much. Maybe a little impulse in between the bigger one toward the end of October? We seemed to have those with the past bigger warmings. Thinking of those smaller ones to help maintain the Nino temp levels and not allow too much cooling in between. 

Sorry for the long post.

It’s a bit of a challenge to try and time the peak since the progression has been so different this year. So if everything about the evolution has been new, then can we rely on the timing and magnitude of the peaks of other events? It’s a good question. I guess the one constant is the westward lean to the forcing continues into September. While Dateline forcing during the winter could still be quite mild, at least we could up our chances for a better snowfall outcome than last winter. But the bar is pretty low. Just give me a decent STJ and some well timed blocks and I will tolerate a milder winter like we have had for the last 8 years.
 

The cooling that you mentioned in the WPAC may be dampening the MJO 4-5 and upping the 6-7. Even though the RMM charts are missing the magnitude of the forcing drifting toward the Dateline which the VP anomalies more clearly show.

 

[so_whats_happening]

42 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s a bit of a challenge to try and time the peak since the progression has been so different this year. So if everything about the evolution has been new, then can we rely on the timing and magnitude of the peaks of other events? It’s a good question. I guess the one constant is the westward lean to the forcing continues into September. While Dateline forcing during the winter could still be quite mild, at least we could up our chances for a better snowfall outcome than last winter. But the bar is pretty low. Just give me a decent STJ and some well timed blocks and I will tolerate a milder winter like we have had for the last 8 years.
 

The cooling that you mentioned in the WPAC may be dampening the MJO 4-5 and upping the 6-7. Even though the RMM charts are missing the magnitude of the forcing drifting toward the Dateline which the VP anomalies more clearly show.

 

Fair point but yea the bar is pretty low down this way I mean honestly if it were to happen again with no snow whatever just give me warm temps not the 36 and rain lol too dreary for me. Personally myself would be happy with a nice foot snowstorm and call it a season.

Also agree on the RMM plots they tend to miss out on what exactly the results could be was quite an uptick the last go about with a low amplitude wave shown on the plots. It very well could skip 4-5, models definitely showing that possibility so a push to low amplitude 3 and slide over to 6-7 is possible toward mid to late month period. I wonder if this would drag the last of the warmth from a solid wave what happens next is of course the big question. That look would seemingly be a fairly healthy spike and could serve as really strong wave. Of course always be taking caution for long range outlooks as this has been shown several times before and retreats west in time and weakens. Who knows maybe this time is different with the atmosphere a little more inline to Nino. 

Should be fun to watch this evolution definitely a different one from  at least a record stand point.

[so_whats_happening]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Impending MJO has really weakened on guidance the last few days per link below on models that were really impressed like the Gfs suite and Bomm. Eps and extended Eps were never that impressed with it from the start and still aren't. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

Yea models are having a hard time resolving MJO and amplitude. They seem to want this to move a little quicker than it actually is so we may be in transition time for seasons and the northern hemisphere to start kicking into gear?

I have not been impressed at all with any BOMM MJO forecast hard pass on any of those outputs. JMA/ GFS/ Euro have been doing fairly well the GFS definitely struggles with amplitude though.

Gotta wait until we actually see activity form to really know where the movement goes. As long as we stay in null all basins are essentially open for activity tropical wise. Let us see if we get something of low amplitude peak in 3 coming up here or just stay in null as we circle around trying to find an opening. 

[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Fair point but yea the bar is pretty low down this way I mean honestly if it were to happen again with no snow whatever just give me warm temps not the 36 and rain lol too dreary for me. Personally myself would be happy with a nice foot snowstorm and call it a season.

Also agree on the RMM plots they tend to miss out on what exactly the results could be was quite an uptick the last go about with a low amplitude wave shown on the plots. It very well could skip 4-5, models definitely showing that possibility so a push to low amplitude 3 and slide over to 6-7 is possible toward mid to late month period. I wonder if this would drag the last of the warmth from a solid wave what happens next is of course the big question. That look would seemingly be a fairly healthy spike and could serve as really strong wave. Of course always be taking caution for long range outlooks as this has been shown several times before and retreats west in time and weakens. Who knows maybe this time is different with the atmosphere a little more inline to Nino. 

Should be fun to watch this evolution definitely a different one from  at least a record stand point.

I guess the hope is we don’t get an early El Niño peak and a quickly fading IOD which allows maritime continent forcing back into picture in time for winter. Then we are pretty much at the mercy of whether blocking shows up or not. Not even sure how much Nino 3.4 needs to warm for a strong enough Nino response to mute the lingering Niña background state of recent years. I would be happy with a milder forcing pattern near the Dateline provided some blocking and and an active STJ. 

[so_whats_happening]

27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I guess the hope is we don’t get an early El Niño peak and a quickly fading IOD which allows maritime continent forcing back into picture in time for winter. Then we are pretty much at the mercy of whether blocking shows up or not. Not even sure how much Nino 3.4 needs to warm for a strong enough Nino response to mute the lingering Niña background state of recent years. I would be happy with a milder forcing pattern near the Dateline provided some blocking and and an active STJ. 

That would be pretty crazy if that happened. We will just have to watch how this goes in September a lot is up in the air still (unfortunately) how this all shakes out.

[griteater]

40 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I guess the hope is we don’t get an early El Niño peak and a quickly fading IOD which allows maritime continent forcing back into picture in time for winter. Then we are pretty much at the mercy of whether blocking shows up or not. Not even sure how much Nino 3.4 needs to warm for a strong enough Nino response to mute the lingering Niña background state of recent years. I would be happy with a milder forcing pattern near the Dateline provided some blocking and and an active STJ. 

I get your point about not wanting to see MC forcing (Nina like), but historically, the +IOD autumns haven't been a good omen for winter with respect to high latitude blocking (winters that had +IOD autumns shown below).  Given the strength of this Nino, I would think we'd keep a good amount of subsidence in the MC even with the increased Indo-Pacific warm pool influence in recent years.  "AO+NAO" below is a combined AO/NAO index value

 

 

 

[griteater]

Regarding the PDO, the averaged value for August appears to be something around -1.60 on this chart.

 

Trend loop of the last 3 runs of the CANSIPS seasonal for Nov-Jan shows a trend toward maintaining the healthy -PDO.  

 

I would think this gives credence to the idea that we won't have a big Aleutian Low parked in the North Pacific.  Rather, expect variability in the N Pac pattern.

[so_whats_happening]

On 8/29/2023 at 9:25 AM, griteater said:

Aug 22 to 27 TAO subsurface images.  Warm 'anomalies' (not means) are building west a bit at the surface, but also, the east-based warming is being reinforced at the surface and at depth...and the thermocline is flattening some with this wave moving east at depth.

Quite the change in the almost 10 day period.

[mitchnick]

21 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Quite the change in the almost 10 day period.

I  look at that ssta map and think that trades kicking in would do nothing but warm 3.4 anomalies.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

50 minutes ago, griteater said:

I would think this gives credence to the idea that we won't have a big Aleutian Low parked in the North Pacific.  Rather, expect variability in the N Pac pattern.

I think that is probably true, like we've seen all Summer. On the other hand, -PNA's aren't sticking either. 

[brooklynwx99]

55 minutes ago, griteater said:

Regarding the PDO, the averaged value for August appears to be something around -1.60 on this chart.

 

Trend loop of the last 3 runs of the CANSIPS seasonal for Nov-Jan shows a trend toward maintaining the healthy -PDO.  

 

I would think this gives credence to the idea that we won't have a big Aleutian Low parked in the North Pacific.  Rather, expect variability in the N Pac pattern.

as long as the PNA just remains neutral, blocking will be a thousand times more effective than it was last year 

[so_whats_happening]

8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I  look at that ssta map and think that trades kicking in would do nothing but warm 3.4.

So this shows most of 3/ 3.4/ 4 eastern edge of 3 is cut off a bit on the right side as it is from 90W-150W, 3.4 is from 120W-170W, and 4 is from 150W-160E

If we had a month by month play from May to now Im sure we would see a slow progression westward of the anomalies. It unfortunately cuts off 1+2 which I get cause it changes a lot but would be nice to see and also the most western portion of the Pacific but luckily CPC sort of broad brushes those regions for us.

Trades kick in and tend to cap off waters and much of the warming but what I believe they also do is help with pushing the warmest portion further west with time. This progression is definitely interesting to watch.

[griteater]

Corrected a few dates due to Labor Day...

 

Approximate Schedule of Upcoming ENSO Monitoring Events (lol):

8/31 (Aftn): September CANSIPS Update on Twitter

8/31 (Evening): September CANSIPS Update on Tropical Tidbits

9/3 to 9/8: September Update for JMA 3-Month Forecast (1st Look at Dec Forecast)

9/3 to 9/8: September JMA Winter Seasonal Forecast (1st Look at Dec-Feb Forecast)

9/5: JJA ENSO ONI Update from NOAA

9/5: JJA ENSO RONI Update from NOAA

9/5: September Update for ENSO SST Base E vs C Index 

9/5: September Update of Euro Seasonal Forecast

9/8: September MEI Update

9/10: September Update of Copernicus C3S Ensemble Seasonal 

9/10 to 9/20: September Update of JAMSTEC Seasonal

[bluewave]

10 hours ago, griteater said:

I get your point about not wanting to see MC forcing (Nina like), but historically, the +IOD autumns haven't been a good omen for winter with respect to high latitude blocking (winters that had +IOD autumns shown below).  Given the strength of this Nino, I would think we'd keep a good amount of subsidence in the MC even with the increased Indo-Pacific warm pool influence in recent years.  "AO+NAO" below is a combined AO/NAO index value

 

 

 

We got a record MJO 4-6 during the super El Niño in December 2015 once the IOD faded. That combination with the Nino forcing resulted in a super-Niña like +13 December in Northeast. But the blocking coming on strong in January and February saved the winter once the MJO 4-6 influence weakened. There was an interesting paper written on this effect. Plus every El Niño attempt since then has encountered interference from the WPAC warm pool . So I am even more cautious at looking at extended model output when Ninos are involved. Just look at how much further west the forcing was displaced this summer versus the strongest events. Many models missed this and had EPAC forcing in their seasonal outlooks for the summer. 
 

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00376-020-0261-x

 

Distinctive MJO Activity during the Boreal Winter of the 2015/16 Super El Niño in Comparison with Other Super El Niño Events

 

[mitchnick]

23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We got a record MJO 4-6 during the super El Niño in December 2015 once the IOD faded. That combination with the Nino forcing resulted in a super-Niña like +13 December in Northeast. But the blocking coming on strong in January and February saved the winter once the MJO 4-6 influence weakened. There was an interesting paper written on this effect. Plus every El Niño attempt since then has encountered interference from the WPAC warm pool . So I am even more cautious at looking at extended model output when Ninos are involved. Just look at how much further west the forcing was displaced this summer versus the strongest events. Many models missed this and had EPAC forcing in their seasonal outlooks for the summer. 
 

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00376-020-0261-x

 

Distinctive MJO Activity during the Boreal Winter of the 2015/16 Super El Niño in Comparison with Other Super El Niño Events

 

Since the MJO has behaved like no other super Nino, doesn't this therefore suggest it won't become one? I  guess it could, but it seems you need MJO cooperation similar to previous events in order to get one unless there's a new way of getting there.

[bluewave]

13 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Since the MJO has behaved like no other super Nino, doesn't this therefore suggest it won't become one? I  guess it could, but it seems you need MJO cooperation similar to previous events in order to get one unless there's a new way of getting there.

All we can say is that Euro seasonal for the summer from May was off on the EPAC forcing that never materialized. So I am even more cautious at looking at a longer range seasonal forecast for the winter which is much further out than the summer forecast issued in May. That would be like the November forecast being off for winter. But at least the Euro still had some WPAC forcing in the forecast even though it was too weak.

 

http://seasonal.meteo.fr/content/PS-previ-cartes?language=en&TSPD_101_R0=0804515747ab2000ad872a2e9ddcbfd2ff2748fbec26c8047ff69e03f9b0255746c3a2ce239aa065080ec81b72143000ab7a63d4629fcacb295da78c52aa3c7ee66c63462d17216940f510f6a9555384b49970c27218ff6e6d1108718d8fc5d8

Forecast

 

Verification 

 

 

 

 

[snowman19]

15 hours ago, bluewave said:

I guess the hope is we don’t get an early El Niño peak and a quickly fading IOD which allows maritime continent forcing back into picture in time for winter. Then we are pretty much at the mercy of whether blocking shows up or not. Not even sure how much Nino 3.4 needs to warm for a strong enough Nino response to mute the lingering Niña background state of recent years. I would be happy with a milder forcing pattern near the Dateline provided some blocking and and an active STJ. 

The models don’t show this +IOD event fading to neutral until sometime in January and they have actually gotten stronger with it, they also show a very gradual, slow weakening of what will most likely be a super El Niño through March after it peaks around December. Given that we are in the beginning of September, I fully expect the OHC to peak at or above +2.0, given that it normally doesn’t max out for another 3 months (November). I expect the MJO to propagate into the Pacific and with it, kill the trade winds and initiate another WWB and DWKW, enhancing the feedback. I think we see strong ENSO warming come the end of this month, also think we see much better coupling/strong -SOI as we move toward the end of the month

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The models don’t show this +IOD event fading to neutral until sometime in January and they have actually gotten stronger with it, they also show a very gradual, slow weakening of what will most likely be a super El Niño through March after it peaks around December. Given that we are in the beginning of September, I fully expect the OHC to peak at or above +2.0, given that it normally doesn’t max out for another 3 months (November). I expect the MJO to propagate into the Pacific and with it, kill the trade winds and initiate another WWB and DWKW, enhancing the feedback. I think we see strong ENSO warming come the end of this month, also think we see much better coupling/strong -SOI as we move toward the end of the month

I think we are probably on the same page with our concerns about another mild winter coming up. But we arrive at that potential from two different directions. I believe your concern is that the eastward lean to the SST anomalies finally pulls the forcing east as we head into the winter. I am wondering if the El Niño peaks a little early and the forcing stays near the dateline. Then if there are coupling issues like we have seen this summer, the MJO 4-6 forcing which is also warmer could factor in at times. Plus strong enough dateline forcing in itself could be mild if the PNA ridge rolls over into the Northeast. So it may come down to whether we can get some snowfall luck in a mild pattern and a well timed STJ and blocking overlap. Let’s face it, there are more warmer potential forcing scenarios than cold as we have seen every winter since 15-16. 14-15 was such a freak event with the mega -EPO block overpowering the record +NAO. It was a Modoki with a raging +NAO. Since the climate has warmed so much since then, not even sure if similar modoki forcing scenario would even yield a very cold winter again. 

[roardog]

What caused the unusual December of ‘72 pattern? It didn’t look anything like a Nino let alone a super Nino. 

[snowman19]

What caused the unusual December of ‘72 pattern? It didn’t look anything like a Nino let alone a super Nino. 

Strong -PDO and I believe it was also -PMM (not 100% sure though), was also east-based super El Niño

[George001]

29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I think we are probably on the same page with our concerns about another mild winter coming up. But we arrive at that potential from two different directions. I believe your concern is that the eastward lean to the SST anomalies finally pulls the forcing east as we head into the winter. I am wondering if the El Niño peaks a little early and the forcing stays near the dateline. Then if there are coupling issues like we have seen this summer, the MJO 4-6 forcing which is also warmer could factor in at times. Plus strong enough dateline forcing in itself could be mild if the PNA ridge rolls over into the Northeast. So it may come down to whether we can get some snowfall luck in a mild pattern and a well timed STJ and blocking overlap. Let’s face it, there are more warmer potential forcing scenarios than cold as we have seen every winter since 15-16. 14-15 was such a freak event with the mega -EPO block overpowering the record +NAO. It was a Modoki with a raging +NAO. Since the climate has warmed so much since then, not even sure if similar modoki forcing scenario would even yield a very cold winter again. 

You bring up some great points here. The pacific warm pool that has been linked to climate change has been fucking us over the past few years. In 2014-2015 it was displaced east, the past few years it’s been more west. This year it looks very similar to the past few winters, not 2014-2015. I am on board with a super nino, but even if I am wrong about that and the El Niño peaks at strong instead, there are still so many things working against us. We have extremely warm ssts in the Atlantic, the west displaced pacific warm pool, high solar (+NAO signal especially in Feb), -PDO, etc to worry about. I hope I am wrong but things are not looking good if you want a cold and snowy winter in the east.

[roardog]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Strong -PDO and I believe it was also -PMM (not 100% sure though), was also east-based super El Niño

Yeah but you wouldn’t expect that type of pattern in an east based Nino in December. If it was due to the strong -PDO, should we take that into consideration this year? 

[snowman19]

54 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I think we are probably on the same page with our concerns about another mild winter coming up. But we arrive at that potential from two different directions. I believe your concern is that the eastward lean to the SST anomalies finally pulls the forcing east as we head into the winter. I am wondering if the El Niño peaks a little early and the forcing stays near the dateline. Then if there are coupling issues like we have seen this summer, the MJO 4-6 forcing which is also warmer could factor in at times. Plus strong enough dateline forcing in itself could be mild if the PNA ridge rolls over into the Northeast. So it may come down to whether we can get some snowfall luck in a mild pattern and a well timed STJ and blocking overlap. Let’s face it, there are more warmer potential forcing scenarios than cold as we have seen every winter since 15-16. 14-15 was such a freak event with the mega -EPO block overpowering the record +NAO. It was a Modoki with a raging +NAO. Since the climate has warmed so much since then, not even sure if similar modoki forcing scenario would even yield a very cold winter again. 

AGW is obviously a huge concern and temps need to be adjusted for that. I very seriously an early El Nino peak, all the models have a peak around November/December, then a very slow weakening through March. That, along with the healthy +IOD (shown to erode to neutral in January), leads me to believe we see subsidence over the eastern IO and Maritime Continent MJO phases. As far as ENSO orientation, I see it remaining east-lean through the winter…the models all show regions 1+2 and 3 staying warmer than 3.4 and 4 through January, which again makes me doubt west of the dateline La Niña like forcing. And @roardogeast-based El Niño doesn’t always mean complete blowtorch December, i.e. December, 1972. December, 1997 wasn’t a complete torch, warmer than normal, yes, the real blowtorch started in early January and carried through February and into the 1st half of March, 1998