El Nino 2023-2024

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There was some bad luck, but it was also probably a lot of deals where the cold would come in between storms....with no blocking and -PNA, the storms would cut and flip to rain, cold comes in behind, rinse and repeat.

right rather than using "luck" to explain it, it's interesting how these patterns run in cycles.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

right rather than using "luck" to explain it, it's interesting how these patterns run in cycles.

Yeah, I was saying 1+ year ago, the NAO is oppositely correlating. That a +NAO Winter would be better than -NAO Winter. There were like 20 posts in the Fall about -NAO Winter being bad...

[bluewave]

37 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Interesting-- so 1957-58 was the trigger that gave us the great winters in the 60s? (1959-60 tail end, 1960-61, 1963-64, 1966-67, etc.)

 

The PDO intervals were much longer from 1950 to 1998. We had multi decade long +and - phases .Notice the rapid shifts after 5-7 years following the 97-98 super El Niño. 

 

[roardog]

52 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The PDO intervals were much longer from 1950 to 1998. We had multi decade long +and - phases .Notice the rapid shifts after 5-7 years following the 97-98 super El Niño. 

 

This is why I don’t agree with people who say we’re in a -PDO period that started in the late ‘90s.

[thunderbolt]

 

 

 

 

Andy Hazelton

 

@AndyHazelton

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As we head into mid April, the EC ensemble is predicting another period of basin-wide trade wind reduction across the Equatorial Pacific. It's not a massive WWB, but this will probably be another nudge of the coupled atmosphere/ocean state towards El Niño as the year goes on. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

It's a satelite-era glitch. I noticed on the climate divison maps that the US was +PNA 1942-1947. Then satelites started in Jan 1948, and we were opposite, -PNA, 1948-1954. +6 years. The PDO extreme was 4-5 years after the start of satellite era in Jan 1948. -3 monthly PDO. We hit -3 PDO the only other time in 2022. 1948 to 1952-1953 was 4-5 years +4-5 gave us a perfect +PNA signal when no ENSO-connected + years the PDO extreme. So I'm going for +PNA the next 4 Winter's, and ENSO is not related to the overall calculation, so more El Nino tendency in that time. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Interesting-- so 1957-58 was the trigger that gave us the great winters in the 60s? (1959-60 tail end, 1960-61, 1963-64, 1966-67, etc.)

 

No, it just gave us that smaller period of +PDO with a multidecadal +PDO regime. The 1960s were predominately negative PDO...so we can have good winters with negative PDO, especially in NE. I feel like people are going to get carried away with that after this last year....that was very extreme, which is why it screwed us. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

these things run in cycles, we had a similar sequence in the 80s and early 90s

Except that was during +PDO multi decadal cycle..but you're right. I was gonna say that earlier. The 80s didn't have much blocking...

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, roardog said:

This is why I don’t agree with people who say we’re in a -PDO period that started in the late ‘90s.

There have always been smaller periods of ENSO triggered PDO that opposed the prevailing multidimensional decadal signal. decadal signal...

[snowman19]

The Central Pacific Trade Wind Index was stronger this March than before the the 82-83, 97-98, and 15-16 events. So the WWBs were displaced closer to the EPAC than in March those years. The stronger event years began with much stronger WWBs in the CPAC. This event is featuring very strong east based warming in March which took longer to occur in even east based years like 97-98. Not sure what if any influence this will have on the ultimate strength and location of the warmest SST anomalies later on. But the CPAC trades will need to relax in the coming months if this is to become a stronger event. Still early in the game so a lot can change. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/cpac850
 

850 MB TRADE WIND INDEX(175W-140W)5N 5S  CENTRAL PACIFIC                                               ANOMALY   

2023   3.4   3.7   1.62015  -2.1  -1.2  -0.6 1997  -0.6   2.2  -1.6 1982   0.8  -0.8  -0.9

So far, this event is developing as a classic eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño, we are seeing strong warming in regions 1+2 and 3, we also had a very strong WWB/downwelling KW in those regions in March. Since 1980, the major EP El Niño events were: 82-83, 86-87, 97-98 and 06-07. The major central Pacific/Modoki (CP) El Niño events were: 94-95, 02-03, 04-05 and 09-10. There is also a strong +IOD event taking shape, which would support continuing El Niño development, 97 was also a strong +IOD year. Research has shown that EP Ninos are more common in -PDO regimes than are CP Ninos. This one should be interesting to follow…..

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

So far, this event is developing as a classic eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño, we are seeing strong warming in regions 1+2 and 3, we also had a very strong WWB/downwelling KW in those regions in March. Since 1980, the major EP El Niño events were: 82-83, 86-87, 97-98 and 06-07. The major central Pacific/Modoki (CP) El Niño events were: 94-95, 02-03, 04-05 and 09-10. There is also a strong +IOD event taking shape, which would support continuing El Niño development, 97 was also a strong +IOD year. Research has shown that EP Ninos are more common in -PDO regimes than are CP Ninos. This one should be interesting to follow…..

The difference between this event so far and 82-83 and 97–98 is the big spread between  Nino 1+2 and 3.4. So it’s much more east based than those events early on. It looks like a result of the weaker WWBs in the Central Pacific. Nino 3.4 is still neutral while 1.2 has been near +2 in recent weeks. When 1.2 first reached +2 in 82-83 and 97-98, 3.4 was already above +0.5 and into Nino territory. So the WWBs will need to pick up down the road for more significant warming in 3.4.

The other difference is that  the PDO Is currently even lower than in the beginning of the 72-73 El Niño. That one also had stronger CP WWBs early on than this year with more Nino 3.4 warming when 1+2 reached +2. So this event seems to be unique in its early development. Perhaps the anomalous WPAC warm pool and strong -PDO are slowing the CP WWB response and allowing the WWBs to be more east based than usual. Still early in the game so things can change.

 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/sstoi.indices

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

 

 

 

[raindancewx]

I was playing around with anti-logs that could help produce something like the Canadian look. This would be an incredible winter for me, but I doubt it's correct. Go look at the 500 mb map of these years combined.

But you do have the warm tongue east of Japan with a pretty healthy El Nino in this look. I was able to do that by using anti-log years that had cold Nino 1.2 signals with a warm PDO as opposites.

You guys talking about 1972-73 are missing the key points of that winter. The Fall and the Spring both saw severe cold snaps and snowstorms nationally. I'm not completely sold on it as an analog. But it's likely similar in terms of the PDO y/y, the La Nina to El Nino transition, and it has features in Fall/Spring that I'd expect from volcanic years, so it's likely useful at some weight.

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00431672.1974.9931676

Nov 1972

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00431672.1974.9931677

[snowman19]

The difference between this event so far and 82-83 and 97–98 is the big spread between  Nino 1+2 and 3.4. So it’s much more east based than those events early on. It looks like a result of the weaker WWBs in the Central Pacific. Nino 3.4 is still neutral while 1.2 has been near +2 in recent weeks. When 1.2 first reached +2 in 82-83 and 97-98, 3.4 was already above +0.5 and into Nino territory. So the WWBs will need to pick up down the road for more significant warming in 3.4.

The other difference is that  the PDO Is currently even lower than in the beginning of the 72-73 El Niño. That one also had stronger CP WWBs early on than this year with more Nino 3.4 warming when 1+2 reached +2. So this event seems to be unique in its early development. Perhaps the anomalous WPAC warm pool and strong -PDO are slowing the CP WWB response and allowing the WWBs to be more east based than usual. Still early in the game so things can change.

 
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/sstoi.indices
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat
 
 

 

Correct, so far this one is unique in that isn’t just an EP/east-based El Niño …it’s EXTREMELY east-based, with both SSTs and WWBs. This may end up being a record event in that regard. It does look like a very robust, possibly strong to very strong Nino event is on the way. The +IOD leads me to believe it’s going to continue to strengthen. And yea this year’s PDO is starting much lower than 1972

[LibertyBell]

18 hours ago, bluewave said:

The PDO intervals were much longer from 1950 to 1998. We had multi decade long +and - phases .Notice the rapid shifts after 5-7 years following the 97-98 super El Niño. 

 

Chris do you think that el nino caused such a startling effect that the PDO cycles got dramatically shorter?

 

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Correct, so far this one is unique in that isn’t just an EP/east-based El Niño …it’s EXTREMELY east-based, with both SSTs and WWBs. This may end up being a record event in that regard. It does look like a very robust, possibly strong to very strong Nino event is on the way. The +IOD leads me to believe it’s going to continue to strengthen. And yea this year’s PDO is starting much lower than 1972

The only current analog for March into April significant warmth in the EPAC and cooler Nino 3.4 is March 2017. But the subsurface across the Pacific has more of a developing El Niño signature than that year. The Euro was forecasting a moderate El Niño that year which never verified. So not many good analogs yet for this one.

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2018.00367/full

 

The latest extreme coastal El Niño occurred in austral summer 2017. A strong surface temperature anomaly developed off northern Peru, reaching a maximum of +5°C at the coast, while very weak temperature anomalies were found in the Central Equatorial Pacific (Figure 1). Coastal precipitations attained a maximum of 8 mm day^-1(monthly average), thus being almost as intense as during the 1997–98 El Niño event (10 mm day^-1, Figure 1). The event was triggered by a decrease of the southerly trade winds in January 2017 (Figure 2A) which reduced the latent heat release and ocean cooling (Garreaud, 2018; Hu et al., 2018). Climate reanalysis data suggest that the wind relaxation was related to the weakening of the free tropospheric westerly flow impinging the subtropical Andes, remotely forced by anomalously intense deep convection in the western Pacific (Garreaud, 2018). However, the impacts of the wind relaxation and local air-sea feedbacks on the coastal upwelling have not been investigated in detail.

 

 

[thunderbolt]

[snowman19]

A very significant El Niño for 23-24 is gaining more and more traction. The fact that we are in 3rd place right now behind only 82-83 and 97-98 is very telling, the big dogs developed as eastern Pacific Ninos like this one is so far

[bluewave]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Chris do you think that el nino caused such a startling effect that the PDO cycles got dramatically shorter?

 

It’s probably related to the warming of the climate since the 97-98 super El Niño.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0663-x

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation less predictable under greenhouse warming

Abstract

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is the most prominent form of decadal variability over the North Pacific, characterized by its horseshoe-shaped sea surface temperature anomaly pattern^1,2. The PDO exerts a substantial influence on marine ecosystems, fisheries and agriculture^1,2,3. Through modulating global mean temperature, the phase shift of the PDO at the end of the twentieth century is suggested to be an influential factor in the recent surface warming hiatus^4,5. Determining the predictability of the PDO in a warming climate is therefore of great importance⁶. By analysing future climate under different emission scenarios simulated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (ref. ⁷), we show that the prediction lead time and the associated amplitude of the PDO decrease sharply under greenhouse warming conditions. This decrease is largely attributable to a warming-induced intensification of oceanic stratification, which accelerates the propagation of Rossby waves, shortening the PDO lifespan and suppressing its amplitude by limiting its growth time. Our results suggest that greenhouse warming will make prediction of the PDO more challenging, with far-reaching ramifications.

[thunderbolt]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

A very significant El Niño for 23-24 is gaining more and more traction. The fact that we are in 3rd place right now behind only 82-83 and 97-98 is very telling, the big dogs developed as eastern Pacific Ninos like this one is so far

I think the question at hand is what is going to be the strength 

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 hours ago, snowman19 said:

So far, this event is developing as a classic eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño, we are seeing strong warming in regions 1+2 and 3, we also had a very strong WWB/downwelling KW in those regions in March. Since 1980, the major EP El Niño events were: 82-83, 86-87, 97-98 and 06-07. The major central Pacific/Modoki (CP) El Niño events were: 94-95, 02-03, 04-05 and 09-10. There is also a strong +IOD event taking shape, which would support continuing El Niño development, 97 was also a strong +IOD year. Research has shown that EP Ninos are more common in -PDO regimes than are CP Ninos. This one should be interesting to follow…..

'86-'87 wasn't east based...it was basin wide with a slight west lean.

[snowman19]

'86-'87 wasn't east based...it was basin wide with a slight west lean.

This research classified 86-87 as an EP El Niño: https://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2651&context=etd

[bluewave]

While the SST maxes in 86-87 were split between 3.4 and 1.2, the actual forcing was pretty far west. So there were elements of that winter than could be called Modoki-like. It was the snowiest winter of the 1980s in Central NJ

Data for October 1, 1986 through April 30, 1987
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Name	Station Type	Total Snowfall
SUSSEX 1 NW	COOP	70.0
LAKEHURST NAS	WBAN	65.0
HIGH POINT PARK	COOP	53.9
ESTELL MANOR	COOP	48.1
NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE	COOP	47.3
New Brunswick Area	ThreadEx	47.3
POTTERSVILLE 2 NNW	COOP	46.1
OAK RIDGE RESERVOIR	COOP	45.5
INDIAN MILLS 2 W	COOP	45.4
HIGHTSTOWN 2 W	COOP	44.8
NEWTON	COOP	44.5
CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR	COOP	44.0
GREENWOOD LAKE	COOP	43.5
MILLVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT	WBAN	43.2
MORRIS PLAINS 1 W	COOP	41.9

 

Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30	Missing Count
1980-04-30	21.5	0
1981-04-30	21.2	0
1982-04-30	30.9	0
1983-04-30	34.6	0
1984-04-30	37.7	0
1985-04-30	25.8	0
1986-04-30	24.6	0
1987-04-30	47.3	0
1988-04-30	25.3	0
1989-04-30	10.5	0

[LibertyBell]

39 minutes ago, bluewave said:

While the SST maxes in 86-87 were split between 3.4 and 1.2, the actual forcing was pretty far west. So there were elements of that winter than could be called Modoki-like. It was the snowiest winter of the 1980s in Central NJ

Data for October 1, 1986 through April 30, 1987
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Name	Station Type	Total Snowfall
SUSSEX 1 NW	COOP	70.0
LAKEHURST NAS	WBAN	65.0
HIGH POINT PARK	COOP	53.9
ESTELL MANOR	COOP	48.1
NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE	COOP	47.3
New Brunswick Area	ThreadEx	47.3
POTTERSVILLE 2 NNW	COOP	46.1
OAK RIDGE RESERVOIR	COOP	45.5
INDIAN MILLS 2 W	COOP	45.4
HIGHTSTOWN 2 W	COOP	44.8
NEWTON	COOP	44.5
CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR	COOP	44.0
GREENWOOD LAKE	COOP	43.5
MILLVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT	WBAN	43.2
MORRIS PLAINS 1 W	COOP	41.9

 

Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30	Missing Count
1980-04-30	21.5	0
1981-04-30	21.2	0
1982-04-30	30.9	0
1983-04-30	34.6	0
1984-04-30	37.7	0
1985-04-30	25.8	0
1986-04-30	24.6	0
1987-04-30	47.3	0
1988-04-30	25.3	0
1989-04-30	10.5	0

it was a "just miss" winter for us, I wonder why?

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

it was a "just miss" winter for us, I wonder why?

Areas south of NYC can be favored for the heaviest snows during some El Niño seasons with the stronger STJ. But during other El Niño years the STJ can position further north and jackpot our area. Same goes for La Ninas which can favor areas to our north with the Pacific Jet riding further north. Then we have the fantastic La Niña years for snowfall which our area does very well.

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Areas south of NYC can be favored for the heaviest snows during some El Niño seasons with the stronger STJ. But during other El Niño years the STJ can position further north and jackpot our area. Same goes for La Ninas which can favor areas to our north with the Pacific Jet riding further north. Then we have the fantastic La Niña years for snowfall which our area does very well.

The thing was though, it wasn't even a really good winter for us, it was just an average winter so the area of heaviest snows must've been very narrow.  We didn't get any huge 20"+ coastals like we get now.  La Ninas after El Ninos seem to be very good for that.

 

 

[GaWx]

 Here's the way I'm looking at the ENSO climo from year to year based on looking at the combination of the CPC table since 1950 and Eric Webb's tables prior to 1950 that go back to 1850:

- The greatest rise since 1850 in the 3 month average from one fall/winter to the next is 3.1, which was from the 1971-2 moderate Niña to the 1972-3 super Nino.

- Next largest rises were 2.9 (1996-7 to 1997-8), 2.8 (1964-5 to 1965-6), 2.6 (1975-6 to 1976-7 and 1917-8 to 1918-9), 2.5 (1924-5 to 1925-6), 2.4 (2008-9 to 2009-10 and 1981-2 to 1982-3), 2.3 (1910-1 to 1911-2), and 2.2 (1956-7 to 1957-8 and 1898-9 to 1899-1900).

- So, there have been 11 rises greater than 2.0 since 1850. The 2022-3 ENSO dipped to a low of -1.0. So, in order for 2023-4 to reach super Nino strength (+2.0+), it would take THE largest rise since the late 1800s (the 3.1 rise from 1971-2 to 1972-3) to accomplish that.

- Based on this, alone, the chances of a super Nino peak in 2023-4 are low.

- It would take a rise of 2.5 to 2.9 to get a strong Nino peak in 2023-4. There have been five rises of 2.5 to 2.9 since 1850. That, alone, suggests a significantly higher chance for a strong Nino peak than a super Nino peak in 2023-4.

- Fwiw after adjusting for an implied warm bias, the April 1st Euro ensemble is suggesting that the highest chance is for strong over high end moderate or super.

- Thus, as of now, I'm leaning toward a strong Nino three month averaged peak (+1.5 to +1.9) as most likely for 2023-4 with high end moderate (+1.3 to +1.4) as second most likely and super (+2.0+) as third most likely.

[snowman19]

 Here's the way I'm looking at the ENSO climo from year to year based on looking at the combination of the CPC table since 1950 and Eric Webb's tables prior to 1950 that go back to 1850:
- The greatest rise since 1850 in the 3 month average from one fall/winter to the next is 3.1, which was from the 1971-2 moderate Niña to the 1972-3 super Nino.
- Next largest rises were 2.9 (1996-7 to 1997-8), 2.8 (1964-5 to 1965-6), 2.6 (1975-6 to 1976-7 and 1917-8 to 1918-9), 2.5 (1924-5 to 1925-6), 2.4 (2008-9 to 2009-10 and 1981-2 to 1982-3), 2.3 (1910-1 to 1911-2), and 2.2 (1956-7 to 1957-8 and 1898-9 to 1899-1900).
- So, there have been 11 rises greater than 2.0 since 1850. The 2022-3 ENSO dipped to a low of -1.0. So, in order for 2023-4 to reach super Nino strength (+2.0+), it would take THE largest rise since the late 1800s (the 3.1 rise from 1971-2 to 1972-3) to accomplish that.
- Based on this, alone, the chances of a super Nino peak in 2023-4 are low.
- It would take a rise of 2.5 to 2.9 to get a strong Nino peak in 2023-4. There have been five rises of 2.5 to 2.9 since 1850. That, alone, suggests a significantly higher chance for a strong Nino peak than a super Nino peak in 2023-4.
- Fwiw after adjusting for an implied warm bias, the April 1st Euro ensemble is suggesting that the highest chance is for strong over high end moderate or super.
- Thus, as of now, I'm leaning toward a strong Nino three month averaged peak (+1.5 to +1.9) as most likely for 2023-4 with high end moderate (+1.3 to +1.4) as second most likely and super (+2.0+) as third most likely.

Although “super” may be a stretch, I can easily see it going high-end strong. The developing +IOD looks like it means business, which supports beefed up Nino development. 1997 was +IOD. I also think this is going to be an EP/east-based event given how it has started to develop in regions 1+2 and 3. The Eastern Pacific (EP) Ninos in the past have developed in this way, also, the -PDO regime lends support to an east-based event, they much more common during negative PDO cycles

[bluewave]

On 4/7/2023 at 9:07 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, it just gave us that smaller period of +PDO with a multidecadal +PDO regime. The 1960s were predominately negative PDO...so we can have good winters with negative PDO, especially in NE. I feel like people are going to get carried away with that after this last year....that was very extreme, which is why it screwed us. 

The -PNA -AO -NAO patterns from the mid 1950s to around 1970 were much colder and snowier than we have seen recently. While I know the sample size is smaller, our recent versions of this pattern have been milder with less snow. The one thing I can come up with is the 7° rise in the Gulf Stream is leading to a stronger SE Ridge.

 

 

[George001]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Although “super” may be a stretch, I can easily see it going high-end strong. The developing +IOD looks like it means business, which supports beefed up Nino development. 1997 was +IOD. I also think this is going to be an EP/east-based event given how it has started to develop in regions 1+2 and 3. The Eastern Pacific (EP) Ninos in the past have developed in this way, also, the -PDO regime lends support to an east-based event, they much more common during negative PDO cycles

What you are saying about the nino strength makes sense, but wouldnt it cause the PDO increase and become positive if the nino gets strong enough? 

[snowman19]

What you are saying about the nino strength makes sense, but wouldnt it cause the PDO increase and become positive if the nino gets strong enough? 

Yes, in theory it would most likely eventually flip the PDO positive. That said, the 72-73 winter featured a -PDO for the entire winter and that was a super event