El Nino 2023-2024

[brooklynwx99]

20 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Let’s see what it looks like in November when it really counts before we make conclusions on 8/31

I mean, that's not really a conclusion... it's a fact that it is far behind every single super event in terms of coupling. where it goes is tough to say, but it's clear that this is not like any of those years

[brooklynwx99]

new CanSIPS has pronounced blocking. wow

that's the DJF mean, too. Feb probably looks insane

[Eskimo Joe]

Oh yea

[Yanksfan]

38 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

new CanSIPS has pronounced blocking. wow

that's the DJF mean, too. Feb probably looks insane

Oh my.

[GaWx]

14 hours ago, George001 said:

I don’t know if it should be considered a moderate El Niño right now. On the latest weeklies, Region 4 is moderate, region 3.4 is strong, and regions 3 and 1.2 are super. When 2 of the 4 ENSO regions are super and the other 2 are moderate and strong, I would think that it makes more sense to consider it a strong nino than a moderate one, even if it is considered moderate officially.

 
 Keep in mind that Nino 4 now being at +1.1 on the OISST, especially with it only August, is on a relative basis vs its own historical ranges super strong. The current +1.1 there is a new record for August.@bluewavehas talked about how warm Nino 4 has been vs its past. The old record warm weekly prior to 2023 was only +0.8 (2015).

 Warmest Aug wkly Nino 4 back to 1982 OISST

+1.1: 2023

+0.8: 2015

+0.7: 2019...outside of El Niño

+0.7: 2002

+0.6: 2018, 09, 06, 04, 94

+0.5: 1991, 87

+0.4: 2014, 97

+0.2: 1982

 

 However, some caution is needed with the weekly OISST table when comparing to prior years, especially the further back one goes. That's because they are all based on 1991-2020 averages rather than adjusting more for cooler climo the further back one goes like ONI does. For example, the mere +0.2 of 1982 would be equivalent to something a good bit higher if it were reflecting, say, 1966-1995 averages. Similar idea for the +0.5s of 1987/91. Even the +0.4 of 1997 would be warmer.

 Note that even the weak Nino of 2018 was able to attain +0.6. Even more notable is the +0.7 of 2019, which is very warm for being past the 2018-9 Nino. So, it is important to keep in mind that 2023's +1.1 is likely helped out by overall GW. If there were an adjustment for simultaneous warming of other areas similar to how RONI has recently been adjusting significantly cooler for ONI, Nino 4 would likely be a fair bit cooler than +1.1. Nino 3 and Nino 1+2 would also be in the same boat.

 

[brooklynwx99]

loaded

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

loaded

Thanks. Anxious to see the 500mb maps off Tropical Tidbits tonight.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I count 12 times Nino 4 was <-1.00 anomaly for August, since 1950. 

Furthermore, it just seems to be a general progression +, as a lot of the older years were colder and recent years warmer (impacts on the pattern less as an enso anomaly vs overall warming trend). 32/36 of the oldest August's were - anomaly. https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/nina4.anom.data. It's a region just warming overall vs ENSO flux

[Itryatgolf70]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Thanks. Anxious to see the 500mb maps off Tropical Tidbits tonight.

Come November, if it's still showing that, people be more happy than a sissy in a boot camp

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

new CanSIPS has pronounced blocking. wow

that's the DJF mean, too. Feb probably looks insane

 This map of the newest DJF Greenland SLP anomaly shows a 2-4 mb anomaly vs 1993-2016 climo. Per TT, the prior CANSIPS run had a 2+ mb anomaly (vs 1981-2010 climo) only in SE Greenland. So, if the different climo bases as well as any other differences of mapping parameters for WCS vs TT aren't making a big difference, I'd then expect the updated TT to show a significantly stronger DJF Greenland SLP anomaly in its update compared to the prior run on TT.

[Typhoon Tip]

5 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

new CanSIPS has pronounced blocking. wow

that's the DJF mean, too. Feb probably looks insane

I think that’s more mid Novie to early Jan but don’t otherwise disagree. 

[brooklynwx99]

CanSIPS still looks great! about what I would expect. a crappy start, a transition into a better pattern in Jan, then the hammer comes down once into February and March

I am expecting December to torch, by the way. analogs are hinting pretty strongly at it

[brooklynwx99]

Nino is a touch weaker and the forcing ticked west, if anything

[brooklynwx99]

it's also picking up on the stronger forcing near the dateline for September that the global ensembles are seeing... this is a good sign

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

Nino is a touch weaker and the forcing ticked west, if anything

Looks great. Like that forcing off the US SE coast popping this run too.

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Looks great. Like that forcing off the US SE coast popping this run too.

yeah that's a sign that it's picking up on a ton of activity there

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

new CanSIPS has pronounced blocking. wow

that's the DJF mean, too. Feb probably looks insane

I'm not suprised whatsoever. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

loaded

....And to all a good night...

[40/70 Benchmark]

Opinions on solar implications, volcanic eruptions and the QBO are like a$$holes...everyone has one. But I am pretty confident in my research and do not expect a strong PV in the DM seasonal mean. Perhaps it won't be as lubed up as the CANSIPS, but such an outcome would not shock me in the least.

I get the skepticism for maybe one more month, but if October maintains this signal, than the dissenters need to reevaluate if they are being objective and honest with themselves.

[brooklynwx99]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Opinions on solar implications, volcanic eruptions and the QBO are like a$$holes...everyone has one. But I am pretty confident in my research and do not expect a strong PV in the DM seasonal mean. Perhaps it won't be as lubed up as the CANSIPS, but such an outcome would not shock me in the least.

I get this for Feb when I run mine through the wringer. pretty solidly AN 10mb heights

[raindancewx]

September looks fairly close to my tentative analogs on the Canadian. I have no faith in the winter outcomes on the models yet especially at the surface. The heat core is stronger and displaced somewhat Southeast, but it's close.

Here are the warmest Septembers in Chicago btw, El Nino only - since you have a +8 to +9 forecast on the Canadian. Some pretty severe winters for me in there, along with a few duds.

1939, 1941, 1963, 2015, 2018, 2019

[40/70 Benchmark]

31 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

CanSIPS still looks great! about what I would expect. a crappy start, a transition into a better pattern in Jan, then the hammer comes down once into February and March

I am expecting December to torch, by the way. analogs are hinting pretty strongly at it

Agree on all accounts. Shield the little ones from Santa's speedo, then bombs away. I do, however, expect strat shenanigans during the month of December, but it won't pay dividends until after the NY.

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Agree on all accounts. Shield the little ones from Santa's speedo, then bombs away. I do, howeve, expect strat shenanigans during the month of December, but it won't pay dividends until after the NY.

people are going to be shitting themselves in December. I can see it already

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

people are going to be shitting themselves in December. I can see it already

I could see December evolving similarly to last year, TBH....then more PNA as the season evolves.

[raindancewx]

Among the years I posted as hottest Chicago Septembers, the 1963-64 cold season is crazy for how the temperature profile played out in winter. For records back to 1892, February 1964 is the "least average" month on record in Albuquerque. The high is legitimately 13 degrees below average. I don't think any other month since 1892 is even more than 10/11 above/below average. The Oct-May highs locally on a monthly basis are pretty cleanly +/-3F for standard deviations. So that year is a really interesting exception, likely in part due to the volcanic influence and/or AMO shift that was ongoing.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

Among the years I posted as hottest Chicago Septembers, the 1963-64 cold season is crazy for how the temperature profile played out in winter. For records back to 1892, February 1964 is the "least average" month on record in Albuquerque. The high is legitimately 13 degrees below average. I don't think any other month since 1892 is even more than 10/11 above/below average. The Oct-May highs locally on a monthly basis are pretty cleanly +/-3F for standard deviations. So that year is a really interesting exception, likely in part due to the volcanic influence and/or AMO shift that was ongoing.

That is the only one of your analogs that was any good out this way...1982-1983 was decent, largely due to one event. 

[dmillz25]

24 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

people are going to be shitting themselves in December. I can see it already

I’ll be in the DR last week of December so I’ll take a torch of a month lol

[GaWx]

On 8/31/2023 at 8:29 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

CanSIPS still looks great! about what I would expect. a crappy start, a transition into a better pattern in Jan, then the hammer comes down once into February and March

I am expecting December to torch, by the way. analogs are hinting pretty strongly at it

-Based on the normalized SLP anomaly TT maps of the last two CANSIPS runs, it has ~-0.35 NAO averaged out over DJF on this run vs ~-0.30 on the prior run. A -0.35 NAO would qualify as a -NAO per my requirement of sub -0.25.

-If that were to verify, it would be only the 2nd -NAO winter of the last 13 winters and only the 7th of the last 45.

-I'd love for this to verify, but I still don't believe the NAO will average that low as I'm predicting either neutral or +NAO. But keeping in mind that neutral goes as low as -0.25, it could end up as neutral and still be close to this -0.35.

-The combo of two things is keeping me from forecasting a -NAO DJF. First, we've been in an +NAO winter era the last 44 winters with only 14% of these winters having a -NAO. Second, an approaching solar max and associated expected very high sunspot activity (150+) tells me that this is not a winter to go out on a limb (i.e., going with the 14%) and predict a sub -0.25 NAO. The highest DJF averaged sunspot activity during these pretty rare -NAO winters within the current +NAO era (last 44 winters) was only 33.

-CANSIPS of 11/30/22 forecasted a -0.40 NAO for DJF 2022-3 vs the actual +0.68. So, the CANSIPS can be far off and this one was only one day before met winter:

 
-I do think that one sub -0.50 NAO month of DJF is quite possible though (perhaps in Feb). That wouldn't even be that far off from you since you think Dec will suck. And then there's the chance for that also in March, which I'm not even considering since it isn't part of met winter.

[George001]

 

4 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

CanSIPS still looks great! about what I would expect. a crappy start, a transition into a better pattern in Jan, then the hammer comes down once into February and March

I am expecting December to torch, by the way. analogs are hinting pretty strongly at it

I don’t buy it (too early, it will change a million times for better or worse) but verbatim I actually think March looks the best. Dec is dogshit and likely part of Jan too, but I would take that and run. We would make up for lost time fast in Feb and Mar if the cansips is right. The pacific isn’t good, but it is better than I expected.

[Terpeast]

The only thing that keeps me from getting over the moon excited over CanSIPs is the PDO. 

looking at the sst map, it’s looking even more negative on this run than last month’s run. 

out of all sst indices, the PDO has the strongest correlation to temps, precip, and snowfall in the MA. 

I don’t know if the models are picking this up, or if other tele’s are muting (or overpowering) the PDO impact, but this is something to watch and take into account.