El Nino 2023-2024

[40/70 Benchmark]

What is meant is it's not acting like other events that ultimately peaked as super events...not that it is already that intense. 

[George001]

I don’t know if it should be considered a moderate El Niño right now. On the latest weeklies, Region 4 is moderate, region 3.4 is strong, and regions 3 and 1.2 are super. When 2 of the 4 ENSO regions are super and the other 2 are moderate and strong, I would think that it makes more sense to consider it a strong nino than a moderate one, even if it is considered moderate officially. Kind of like how last winter the nina was on record as a low end moderate Nina, but practically it was acting like a strong nina (even super at times, especially during the early part of winter). 
 

Off topic, but I’m not sure why there is an official threshold for super nino but not super nina. I would think that if super ninos can occur, super ninas can too. The 2010-2011 La Niña had an MEI reading of -2.5 (super) at its peak. Even in the winter, the MEI was -1.9 (strong) in December and January, and in October and November it was -2.1 (super). Last winter the Nina was only moderate, but the MEI peaked at -2.1 (super) and was still -1.5 (strong) as late as October and November. Of course, just like with ONI, just looking at the MEI alone isn’t enough. It felt like last winter acted like a strong Nina for the most part, and even super at times. The 2010-2011 la nina in my opinion should be considered straight up super if that’s actually a thing. 

[brooklynwx99]

14 minutes ago, George001 said:

I don’t know if it should be considered a moderate El Niño right now. On the latest weeklies, Region 4 is moderate, region 3.4 is strong, and regions 3 and 1.2 are super. When 2 of the 4 ENSO regions are super and the other 2 are moderate and strong, I would think that it makes more sense to consider it a strong nino than a moderate one, even if it is considered moderate officially. Kind of like how last winter the nina was on record as a low end moderate Nina, but practically it was acting like a strong nina (even super at times, especially during the early part of winter). 
 

Off topic, but I’m not sure why there is an official threshold for super nino but not super nina. I would think that if super ninos can occur, super ninas can too. The 2010-2011 La Niña had an MEI reading of -2.5 (super) at its peak. Even in the winter, the MEI was -1.9 (strong) in December and January, and in October and November it was -2.1 (super). Last winter the Nina was only moderate, but the MEI peaked at -2.1 (super) and was still -1.5 (strong) as late as October and November. Of course, just like with ONI, just looking at the MEI alone isn’t enough. It felt like last winter acted like a strong Nina for the most part, and even super at times. The 2010-2011 la nina in my opinion should be considered straight up super if that’s actually a thing. 

it’s because the categories are based off a three-month averaged ONI

and again, this is actually acting like a low-end moderate event when looking at MEI/RONI anyway

[bluewave]

11 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Yes, -PMM. IMO the -PMM is what is helping to keep reinforcing the east-based Nino warming in regions 1+2 and 3. It’s starting to expand west from there into region 3.4 now, as Paul Roundy has been hinting out for months with his paper in Pre-1980 El Niños. This Nino is behaving like the El Niños from that era.., @so_whats_happening https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/28/3/jcli-d-14-00398.1.xml

This event is unique and nothing like the stronger Pre-1980 evolutions. Just go into the data pages from the strongest events during that era and you can see the differences. Notice how much warmer Nino 1+2 and 3 is along with Nino 4 is now. Nino 3.4 is a little cooler this time. Also take note how much warmer the entire WPAC is now. You can also see the S and W displacement of the forcing away from the equator which was previously the norm. 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

it’s because the categories are based off a three-month averaged ONI

and again, this is actually acting like a low-end moderate event when looking at MEI/RONI anyway

You would be shocked how many knowledgeable people in weather circles just can't grasp that...it drives me nuts...especially on social media. They just stare at the daily departures and get all worked up.

[Typhoon Tip]

39 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You would be shocked how many knowledgeable people in weather circles just can't grasp that...it drives me nuts...especially on social media. They just stare at the daily departures and get all worked up.

as though they want/need it -

it should be without passion. 

[griteater]

21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You would be shocked how many knowledgeable people in weather circles just can't grasp that...it drives me nuts...especially on social media. They just stare at the daily departures and get all worked up.

In fairness, the Nino 3.4 climb has been steady state, and I don't see a good reason why that would change going forward (unfortunately).  If things keep progressing along a similar course between the warmer 97-98 / 15-16, and the cooler 02-03 / 09-10, we end up with this peaking in the +2.1 to +2.2 range in the dailies in Nov or Dec, but it's unlikely to be a quick spike and fall type curve if these comparison lines are valid in the end.

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, griteater said:

In fairness, the Nino 3.4 climb has been steady state, and I don't see a good reason why that would change going forward (unfortunately).  If things keep progressing along a similar course between the warmer 97-98 / 15-16, and the cooler 02-03 / 09-10, we end up with this peaking in the +2.1 to +2.2 range in the dailies in Nov or Dec, but it's unlikely to be a quick spike and fall type curve if these comparison lines are valid in the end.

Irrelevant within the context of my point, which is entirely independent of any ultimate peak. It can go on to peak with an ONI of 3.3 and that wouldn't change the fact that we are not currently in a strong el nino.

[George001]

8 minutes ago, griteater said:

In fairness, the Nino 3.4 climb has been steady state, and I don't see a good reason why that would change going forward (unfortunately).  If things keep progressing along a similar course between the warmer 97-98 / 15-16, and the cooler 02-03 / 09-10, we end up with this peaking in the +2.1 to +2.2 range in the dailies in Nov or Dec, but it's unlikely to be a quick spike and fall type curve if these comparison lines are valid in the end.

Yeah, it looks on track for at least 3 months (OND maybe, NDJ very likely) with a peak >2.0 (super).

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, George001 said:

Yeah, it looks on track for at least 3 months (OND maybe, NDJ very likely) with a peak >2.0 (super).

Looks more likely than it did a month or two ago, but not yet resigned to it....nor should anyone to anomalies of that magnitude at extended lead times. Folks get bunned for that quite often between the months of December and March.

[snowman19]

I mean...why would it behave like a Super Nino? Whatever index you use, traditional, MEI, SOI, SSTs, etc, it's not reached anywhere near super strength. I've been expecting a low 28C peak sometime around 10/1-11/30 for a while. We don't really seem like we're going to spend much time, if any, above 28.5C, if you're talking about months from Oct-Feb.
The Super Ninos were near 29.0C in recent cases by ~9/1. The 60-year (1951-2010) older/colder August average in Nino 3.4 is 26.65C - so we're at most +1.5C. The more recent 30 year period averaged 0.2C warmer. It's not really a "strong" event yet.
 02AUG2023     24.7 3.4     27.1 1.8      28.1 1.1     29.5 0.8
 09AUG2023     24.4 3.3     27.0 1.8     28.1 1.2     29.6 0.9
 16AUG2023     24.3 3.3     27.1 2.0      28.1 1.3     29.6 0.9
 23AUG2023     23.9 3.1     27.2 2.2     28.3 1.5     29.8 1.1
This event is in the low 28s right now, likely 28.25C or so for August. I've bolded August / September. For the moment, we're actually more like 1987 than the super events. 1982-83 took off much later than 1997-98 and 2015-16. This event may be more like 1982.

 2023  25.83  26.29  27.18  27.96  28.40  28.57  28.30 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99

 2015  27.05  27.17  27.75  28.52  28.85  28.90  28.75  28.79  28.93  29.08  29.42  29.26

 1997  26.01  26.38  27.04  27.98  28.58  28.82  28.86  28.75  28.85  29.08  29.12  28.89

 1982  26.67  26.59  27.41  28.03  28.39  28.26  27.66  27.58  28.21  28.71  28.62  28.80

 1972  25.62  26.30  27.09  27.89  28.32  28.18  28.14  27.95  27.95  28.26  28.61  28.69

 1965  25.66  26.19  26.94  27.38  27.99  28.09  27.90  27.97  28.01  28.17  28.12  27.96

 1987  27.68  27.88  28.27  28.39  28.56  28.65  28.59  28.42  28.36  27.96  27.77  27.54

We are way ahead of the 1982 super El Niño at this point in time….warmer at the surface and subsurface, warmer ONI, stronger WWBs/DWKWs, better positive feedback, stronger +IOD, stronger -SOI periods (since May), also more east-based than ‘82 as well. 1982 didn’t really take off until almost the end of September

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, griteater said:

In fairness, the Nino 3.4 climb has been steady state, and I don't see a good reason why that would change going forward (unfortunately).  If things keep progressing along a similar course between the warmer 97-98 / 15-16, and the cooler 02-03 / 09-10, we end up with this peaking in the +2.1 to +2.2 range in the dailies in Nov or Dec, but it's unlikely to be a quick spike and fall type curve if these comparison lines are valid in the end.

Provided that the OHC makes a big move upward to the +1.50 +2.00 range from the values only around +1.2 today. Unless the subsurface relationship will do something new like we have seen with many aspects of this event. Plus we just don’t have a big enough sample size of events to account for all the possible variability that may present.

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

We are way ahead of the 1982 super El Niño at this point in time….warmer at the surface and subsurface, warmer ONI, stronger WWBs/DWKWs, better positive feedback, stronger +IOD, stronger -SOI periods (since May), also more east-based than ‘82 as well. 1982 didn’t really take off until almost the end of September

[snowman19]

I am not talking about forcing in that comparison. As far as Nino evolution we are very far ahead of 1982 right now

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, snowman19 said:

I am not talking about forcing in that comparison. As far as Nino evolution we are very far ahead of 1982 right now

I wasn't insinuating anything....I was actually surprised by how similarly they look.

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I am not talking about forcing in that comparison. As far as Nino evolution we are very far ahead of 1982 right now

But the subsurface is lagging 1982 at this point when it was getting close to +2 heading into September.

[snowman19]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

But the subsurface is lagging 1982 at this point when it was getting close to +2 heading into September.

The OHC is rising very quickly, it typically does not max until November and it’s already up to +1.2. With 3 months of warming to go, it is extremely likely it reaches or exceeds +2 come November. Also, here comes the September MJO wave activity now that the monsoon is ending:  https://x.com/bennollweather/status/1697204907160506418?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

[bluewave]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The OHC is rising very quickly, it typically does not max until November and it’s already up to +1.2. With 3 months of warming to go, it is extremely likely it reaches or exceeds +2 come November. Also, here comes the September MJO wave activity now that the monsoon is ending:  https://x.com/bennollweather/status/1697204907160506418?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

Big westward lean to the forcing for the first half of September. The forcing plots beyond 2 weeks usually aren’t that reliable. We may see the forcing stall out near the DL again and only some transient EP forcing before the next wave rolls out.

 

[mitchnick]

41 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Bigger difference in strength and location of positive anomalies in the Eastern Pac than western Pac forcing.

[bluewave]

Unusually Niña-like MJO action to start September for a El Niño year as the WPAC warm pool is battling the ENSO warming. The IOD looks too weak relative to the WPAC warm pool to have much influence outside that local area. 
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Bigger difference in strength and location of positive anomalies in the Eastern Pac than western Pac forcing.

Yep.

[bluewave]

41 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Bigger difference in strength and location of positive anomalies in the Eastern Pac than western Pac forcing.

Yeah, actual +30C SSTs from the Dateline to WPAC are much warmer than +1 to +2 or even +3 departures in the ENSO regions. The departures in the eastern regions just don’t have the same bite anymore while the WPAC is so warm. That’s how Nino 1+2 can have such high departures for months and not move the needle on forcing. Back in 1997 we saw the dominant forcing during the summer much further east. But that year didn’t have any competition from the WPAC which was much cooler.

https://psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst.shtml

 

[griteater]

9 hours ago, George001 said:

I don’t know if it should be considered a moderate El Niño right now. On the latest weeklies, Region 4 is moderate, region 3.4 is strong, and regions 3 and 1.2 are super. When 2 of the 4 ENSO regions are super and the other 2 are moderate and strong, I would think that it makes more sense to consider it a strong nino than a moderate one, even if it is considered moderate officially. Kind of like how last winter the nina was on record as a low end moderate Nina, but practically it was acting like a strong nina (even super at times, especially during the early part of winter). 
 

Off topic, but I’m not sure why there is an official threshold for super nino but not super nina. I would think that if super ninos can occur, super ninas can too. The 2010-2011 La Niña had an MEI reading of -2.5 (super) at its peak. Even in the winter, the MEI was -1.9 (strong) in December and January, and in October and November it was -2.1 (super). Last winter the Nina was only moderate, but the MEI peaked at -2.1 (super) and was still -1.5 (strong) as late as October and November. Of course, just like with ONI, just looking at the MEI alone isn’t enough. It felt like last winter acted like a strong Nina for the most part, and even super at times. The 2010-2011 la nina in my opinion should be considered straight up super if that’s actually a thing. 

The ENSO paper from Anthony Barnston et al. in 1997 became the defacto standard for designating the occurrence and strength of El Nino and La Nina.  This is why Nino 3.4 is widely used.  Regarding Super Nina, we simply haven't witnessed a year with those types of extreme SST numbers on the cool ENSO side in Nino 3.4 like we've seen with warm ENSO, but maybe one occurs in the future.  Although Nino 3.4 is widely used, there is no exact standard for which all use for determining Nino / Nina occurrence and strength...as you mentioned, there are multiple ENSO SST regions, and you have RONI / MEI / SOI / Equatorial SOI.  One advantage with using SSTs is that there are a multitude of models that predict future SSTs, whereas, I don't know of any models that predict explicit MEI & SOI numbers (though values could be inferred).

 

Paper: Documentation of a highly ENSO‐related sst region in the equatorial pacific: Research note (tandfonline.com)

"A  new  ENSO  SST  index  is  documented  that  is  strongly  correlated  to  thé  core ENSO  phenomenon.  The SST anomaly  in much of the  east-central and eastern  tropical   Pacificis  closely  related  to  ENSO.  However,  thé  anomaly  from   approximately   thé  centre  of  thé eastern  half  of the   equatorial  Pacific  westward  to  near  thé  dateline is suggested  to  be  most strongly  ENSO-related  when  data  spanning  thé  most  récent  several  décades  are  used.  This is  thé  case  both  with  respect  to (l) strength  of  association  with  other  oceanic/atmospheric ENSO-related  anomalies  (both  simultaneously  and  as  a  time-delayed  predict and),   and  (2) impact  on  remote  Worldwide  climate  anomalies.  This  observational  insight  was  lacking  in thé  early  1980s  when  thé four   "Nino"   régions  were  developed.   While  a firmer  dynamical foundation  for  this  régional  préférence  still  needs  to  be  established,  thé  région  straddling Nino  3 and  Nino  4 may  be  regarded  as an  appropriate  général  SST  index  of  thé  ENSO  state by  researchers,  diagnosticians  and forecasters.  A  dataset  of  this  index,  called  "Nino  3.4"(5°N-5°S,   120-170°W),   is  maintained  on  thé  Internet,  shown  in  thé  Climate   Diagnostics Bulletin,  and  provided  in  thé  Appendix  of  this  note."

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, actual +30C SSTs from the Dateline to WPAC are much warmer than +1 to +2 or even +3 departures in the ENSO regions. The departures in the eastern regions just don’t have the same bite anymore while the WPAC is so warm. That’s how Nino 1+2 can have such high departures for months and not move the needle on forcing. Back in 1997 we saw the dominant forcing during the summer much further east. But that year didn’t have any competition from the WPAC which was much cooler.

https://psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst.shtml

 

This is what is explicitly reflected by the RONI and even the MEI in a more indirect sense.

[griteater]

18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, actual +30C SSTs from the Dateline to WPAC are much warmer than +1 to +2 or even +3 departures in the ENSO regions. The departures in the eastern regions just don’t have the same bite anymore while the WPAC is so warm. That’s how Nino 1+2 can have such high departures for months and not move the needle on forcing. Back in 1997 we saw the dominant forcing during the summer much further east. But that year didn’t have any competition from the WPAC which was much cooler.

https://psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst.shtml

 

This is the million dollar question.  Does the low frequency -VP hold near the dateline and does the +VP hold in S America

[snowman19]

This is the million dollar question.  Does the low frequency -VP hold near the dateline and does the +VP hold in S America

Regardless of what happens with the forcing by winter, which is anyone’s guess right now, the common theme with ALL the models is that this El Nino isn’t going to be in any hurry to weaken and decay through March once it peaks (probably December). They all show a slow weakening starting in January

[bluewave]

37 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is what is explicitly reflected by the RONI and even the MEI in a more indirect sense.

It does pose the question of how warm the ENSO regions need to get for more of a Nino-like atmospheric response than we have seen? 
 

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

 

[brooklynwx99]

36 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It does pose the question of how warm the ENSO regions need to get for more of a Nino-like atmospheric response than we have seen? 
 

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

 

this right here is why I can't understand why people are saying that this is acting like a Super Nino. it's so far behind everything else... I mean it's well behind 1986-87, which was a moderate event. it's much closer to 2002, 2004, 2009, and 2014 than any of these winters

[brooklynwx99]

like IF this does indeed peak at a monthly ONI average of 2.0, this would likely have an MEI around 1.5, acting much more like a high-end moderate to low-end strong event rather than a canonical super event ala 1997, 1982, or 1972

2016's ONI peaked at 2.6, but its MEI only peaked at 2.1... this difference, along with the western lean in the forcing allowed for the weeks-long favorable pattern that culminated in a HECS. I don't see why it would be that much different this time

[snowman19]

this right here is why I can't understand why people are saying that this is acting like a Super Nino. it's so far behind everything else... I mean it's well behind 1986-87, which was a moderate event. it's much closer to 2002, 2004, 2009, and 2014 than any of these winters

Let’s see what it looks like in November when it really counts before we make conclusions on 8/31