El Nino 2023-2024

[snowman19]

There is a pretty good warm up happening in the daily subsurface
https://ibb.co/cXKwxqq

The new subsurface warming was caused from the recent WWB in the equatorial east PAC, which initiated a DWKW. Positive feedback loop in place. Along with the rapid, ongoing OHC rise, and +IOD strengthening, I’m more confident than I’ve ever been that this event goes super trimonthly ONI….NDJ

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Yes, this is a good point that I'm aware of. So, I realize that getting close to +2 for OHC would be best to get really good OHC support for a super Nino. So, do I think we have a decent chance to get close to +2 by, say, November? Yes, I do. Look how fast it has rewarmed over the last month! And there appears to be much more warming to come over the next ~3 months.

It will be interesting to see how things play out since the subsurface evolution with this event has been very unique. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The new subsurface warming was caused from the recent WWB in the equatorial east PAC, which initiated a DWKW. Positive feedback loop in place. Along with the rapid, ongoing OHC rise, and +IOD strengthening, I’m more confident than I’ve ever been that this event goes super trimonthly ONI….NDJ

Yeah, a lot of El Nino years became self-perpetuating at this point at the surface. If Nino 3.4 is breaking 1.6 before September starts, there is a good chance the ONI of SON will be in Strong Nino territory.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Looks as though forcing is finally migrating eastward this month.

[Typhoon Tip]

MJO looks like it wants to enter a destructive interference with warm ENSO ... who knows how instrumental it will be in modulating matters over the ensuing week(s).

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks as though forcing is finally migrating eastward this month.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Finally starting to act more like a canonical EP el nino, right as the sst anomalies become more basinwide.  

[snowman19]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I saw that too but I wasn’t going to be the one to post it so I wouldn’t get attacked and accused of anything….

[roardog]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks as though forcing is finally migrating eastward this month.

Is it going to stay that far east though? The pattern coming up for the first half of September seems to indicate the forcing will be more to the west with the Nina like pattern. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks as though forcing is finally migrating eastward this month.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, roardog said:

Is it going to stay that far east though? The pattern coming up for the first half of September seems to indicate the forcing will be more to the west with the Nina like pattern. 

I mean, it fluctuates to a degree during every season...this is why we look at the seasonal mean. ENSO never entirely drives the bus over 100% of any given year.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I saw that too but I wasn’t going to be the one to post it so I wouldn’t get attacked and accused of anything….

Well, if you had also been posting it over the course of the summer, then no one would. ; )

[brooklynwx99]

35 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks as though forcing is finally migrating eastward this month.

luckily, this looks rather temporary. strong forcing near the dateline likely resumes by next week. all ensembles agree on this, not just the EPS

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

luckily, this looks rather temporary. strong forcing near the dateline likely resumes by next week. all ensembles agree on this, not just the EPS

Yea, and that is probably what happens over the winter....we will get at least one solid month of snowman19 forcing....but the hope is that its not the vast majority of the winter.

[brooklynwx99]

this makes sense given the potential MJO pulse over the MC as well

[40/70 Benchmark]

Snowman, all joking aside, I bet anything that if you start presenting some data in support of perspectives that differ from that of your own, then people will give you a lot less shit. You gain credibility and are viewed as objective, unbiased and less inflammatory. It goes both ways...we have posters that only post info in support of snow and cold and they get buns tossed at them.

There is plenty of data in support of a mild winter, but its important to look for "what could go wrong" to keep yourself honest/objective and your work exhaustive. But you def. know your stuff.

[bluewave]

49 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks as though forcing is finally migrating eastward this month.

Kind of odd how the strongest VP anomalies were displaced into the Southern Hemisphere near 30S instead of on the equator and northl like we typically see during stronger El Niño’s this time of year. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Kind of odd how the strongest VP anomalies were displaced into the Southern Hemisphere near 30S instead of on the equator and northl like we typically see during stronger El Niño’s this time of year. 

Yes, I noticed and wasn't sure what to make of it.

[brooklynwx99]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Snowman, all joking aside, I bet anything that if you start presenting some data in support of perspectives that differ from that of your own, then people will give you a lot less shit. You gain credibility and are viewed as objective, unbiased and less inflammatory. It goes both ways...we have posters that only post info in support of snow and cold and they get buns tossed at them.

There is plenty of data in support of a mild winter, but its important to look for "what could go wrong" to keep yourself honest/objective and your work exhaustive. But you def. know your stuff.

hey, usually I like to bring good news to people. if there's a torch period for a couple weeks I usually just make a post like "hey this looks like shit for two weeks, see you then" and check out until things get interesting lmao

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

luckily, this looks rather temporary. strong forcing near the dateline likely resumes by next week. all ensembles agree on this, not just the EPS

And it’s not just this month. The WPAC pool is also modeled to warm up as we go into winter months. I wouldn’t be surprised to see forcing go east this fall, then get pulled back west

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

And it’s not just this month. The WPAC pool is also modeled to warm up as we go into winter months. I wouldn’t be surprised to see forcing go east this fall, then get pulled back west

Anecdotally speaking, I am glad September looks warm.

[so_whats_happening]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Snowman, all joking aside, I bet anything that if you start presenting some data in support of perspectives that differ from that of your own, then people will give you a lot less shit. You gain credibility and are viewed as objective, unbiased and less inflammatory. It goes both ways...we have posters that only post info in support of snow and cold and they get buns tossed at them.

There is plenty of data in support of a mild winter, but its important to look for "what could go wrong" to keep yourself honest/objective and your work exhaustive. But you def. know your stuff.

More so also posting his/her own opinions and graphics to back it up would be great. I get trying to have confirmation from the twitter crowd but it really seems like he/she wants those individuals to speak for their thoughts rather then presenting their own ideas. That is not scientific in anyway and definitely lose respect from scientists in that manner, whether right or wrong.

Honestly im not sure why everyone cares to be so right over something like this. Would much rather just chat about it and discuss how the evolution is rather funky. Throw around ideas to get a better understanding and leave it at that. Really weird to see people treating this like a job on what is supposed to be a chat forum. Can we not just take a breather from work stuff and enjoy a place where we all like to watch and talk weather?

Anyway rant over im sure nothing will change in any aspect so...

[snowman19]

4 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this makes sense given the potential MJO pulse over the MC as well

I’m not good with posting my own images on here, so. But anyway, the PAC MJO that should really kill the trade winds, initiate a strong WWB behind it and kick this Nino into overdrive is coming in September, also, here are a few images of the downwelling Kelvin wave renewing the subsurface warming in the east PAC that I was talking about earlier. https://x.com/tylerjstanfield/status/1696965796084220371?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw  https://x.com/mario___ramirez/status/1696971527441281328?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

[griteater]

Approximate Schedule of Upcoming ENSO Monitoring Events (lol):

 

8/31 (Aftn): September CANSIPS Update on Twitter

8/31 (Evening): September CANSIPS Update on Tropical Tidbits

9/3 to 9/8: September Update for JMA 3-Month Forecast (1st Look at Dec Forecast)

9/3 to 9/8: September JMA Winter Seasonal Forecast (1st Look at Dec-Feb Forecast)

9/4: JJA ENSO ONI Update from NOAA

9/4: JJA ENSO RONI Update from NOAA

9/4: September Update for ENSO SST Base E vs C Index 

9/5: September Update of Euro Seasonal Forecast

9/8: September MEI Update

9/10: September Update of Copernicus C3S Ensemble Seasonal 

9/10 to 9/20: September Update of JAMSTEC Seasonal

[bluewave]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, I noticed and wasn't sure what to make of it.

I was wondering if the lingering -PDO cold tongue to the SW of a Baja May be playing a role? 
 

 

[roardog]

49 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I’m not good with posting my own images on here, so. But anyway, the PAC MJO that should really kill the trade winds, initiate a strong WWB behind it and kick this Nino into overdrive is coming in September, also, here are a few images of the downwelling Kelvin wave renewing the subsurface warming in the east PAC that I was talking about earlier. https://x.com/tylerjstanfield/status/1696965796084220371?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw  https://x.com/mario___ramirez/status/1696971527441281328?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

I don’t know. If we’re relying on the CFS to tell us a strong MJO is coming later in September, I’d be putting up caution flags. We’ve been down that road and it isn’t a great road to be down. JB kept using the CFS MJO forecast last winter to show the MJO was going to move strongly into 8 and 1. We all know how that turned out. 
 The euro has it going back into the circle after coming out in 4 for awhile. 

[snowman19]

58 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I was wondering if the lingering -PDO cold tongue to the SW of a Baja May be playing a role? 
 

 

Yes, -PMM. IMO the -PMM is what is helping to keep reinforcing the east-based Nino warming in regions 1+2 and 3. It’s starting to expand west from there into region 3.4 now, as Paul Roundy has been hinting out for months with his paper in Pre-1980 El Niños. This Nino is behaving like the El Niños from that era.., @so_whats_happening https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/28/3/jcli-d-14-00398.1.xml

[so_whats_happening]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yes, -PMM. IMO the -PMM is what is helping to keep reinforcing the east-based Nino warming in regions 1+2 and 3. It’s starting to expand west from there into region 3.4 now, as Paul Roundy has been hinting out for months with his paper in Pre-1980 El Niños. This Nino is behaving like the El Niños from that era.., 

maybe it got lost in translation but can you post this paper?

[brooklynwx99]

I just don't really know how this is behaving like a classical super Nino when the MEI and forcing thus far (aside from a blip in August) have been acting like moderate Ninos, if anything. the only thing that reminds me of one is the raw SST anomalies and not how the atmosphere is acting (no strong WWBs early on, low MEI compared to past strong-super Ninos, forcing largely west). it just seems reductive

[raindancewx]

I mean...why would it behave like a Super Nino? Whatever index you use, traditional, MEI, SOI, SSTs, etc, it's not reached anywhere near super strength. I've been expecting a low 28C peak sometime around 10/1-11/30 for a while. We don't really seem like we're going to spend much time, if any, above 28.5C, if you're talking about months from Oct-Feb.

The Super Ninos were near 29.0C in recent cases by ~9/1. The 60-year (1951-2010) older/colder August average in Nino 3.4 is 26.65C - so we're at most +1.5C. The more recent 30 year period averaged 0.2C warmer. It's not really a "strong" event yet.

 02AUG2023     24.7 3.4     27.1 1.8      28.1 1.1     29.5 0.8
 09AUG2023     24.4 3.3     27.0 1.8     28.1 1.2     29.6 0.9
 16AUG2023     24.3 3.3     27.1 2.0      28.1 1.3     29.6 0.9
 23AUG2023     23.9 3.1     27.2 2.2     28.3 1.5     29.8 1.1

This event is in the low 28s right now, likely 28.25C or so for August. I've bolded August / September. For the moment, we're actually more like 1987 than the super events. 1982-83 took off much later than 1997-98 and 2015-16. This event may be more like 1982.

 2023  25.83  26.29  27.18  27.96  28.40  28.57  28.30 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99

 2015  27.05  27.17  27.75  28.52  28.85  28.90  28.75  28.79  28.93  29.08  29.42  29.26

 1997  26.01  26.38  27.04  27.98  28.58  28.82  28.86  28.75  28.85  29.08  29.12  28.89

 1982  26.67  26.59  27.41  28.03  28.39  28.26  27.66  27.58  28.21  28.71  28.62  28.80

 1972  25.62  26.30  27.09  27.89  28.32  28.18  28.14  27.95  27.95  28.26  28.61  28.69

 1965  25.66  26.19  26.94  27.38  27.99  28.09  27.90  27.97  28.01  28.17  28.12  27.96

 1987  27.68  27.88  28.27  28.39  28.56  28.65  28.59  28.42  28.36  27.96  27.77  27.54