El Nino 2023-2024

[so_whats_happening]

Not sure im seeing May style SOI values (consistently -20 to -30, with large -SOI days) but we do seem to have the troughing setting up just south of Tahiti like I had shown the other week from previous El Nino years. This should help aid in a more consistent -SOI popping up but not sure values will be all that crazy considering the Darwin region doesn't look to have sustained higher pressures, our days of +SOI will definitely more limited though.

The MJO, still rather weak, is now in null and looks to push toward phase 3 by next week. Again if this actually becomes a wave it could lead to another bout of warming toward the mid to late September time frame but in between we will be playing with the wake of the MJO wave and enhanced trades. This will definitely keep a lid on things for the next two weeks maybe even cool some areas a little. From when we have enhanced trades over much of 3/3.4/4 from past situations over summer we see some warming occur in 1+2 which should occur again coming up here.

You can see the change in orientation of the monthly from July to the end of August. Depth of the warmth has waned a bit over the far eastern pacific while depth in the central Pac has grown between 120-160W, which has led to an increase in OHC, and the pocket of 5C has weakened a bit and does look to be moving westward a bit. I still would really like to see cooling of the subsurface/surface in the WPAC.

EPAC seems rather quiet for this time of year and being in an El Nino year. Atlantic may have another storm or two after idalia before it shuts down for a bit with the MJO wave moving into the Indian Ocean WPAC looks to get some action with -VP still pretty far west; long range is showing a push to Dateline -VP by mid September. The caveat is this has been shown in long range for quite some time over the summer and has yet to happen but with the changes in the south pacific maybe just maybe we start to push it out of the maritime continent area. This really is all dependent on this MJO actually waking up.

[bluewave]

7 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The new weeklies have 3.4 at +1.5C (strong), 3 at +2.2C (super), 1+2 at +3.1C (super) and 4 at +1.1C (moderate) 

Anything over +1 in the Nino 4 region is very strong due to the narrower range there than areas further east. The earlier record warmest was in the 09-10 El Niño at +1.18 on ersst v5 for a monthly average. So that was the strongest modoki on record to that  point in time. The 15-16 super El Niño set the all-time record coming in at +1.44. If we can sustain a monthly Nino 4 ersst v5 reading above +1, then it will be a top 3 strongest Nino 4. Remember, none of the past east based El Niño’s like 97-98 and 82-83 even approached +1 or greater in Nino 4. Technically speaking, Nino 4 remaining above +1 will constitute a full basin event since the forcing will lean west. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Anything over +1 in the Nino 4 region is very strong due to the narrower range there than areas further east. The earlier record warmest was in the 09-10 El Niño at +1.18 on ersst v5 for a monthly average. So that was the strongest modoki on record to that  point in time. The 15-16 super El Niño set the all-time record coming in at +1.44. If we can sustain a monthly Nino 4 ersst v5 reading above +1, then it will be a top 3 strongest Nino 4. Remember, none of the past east based El Niño’s like 97-98 and 82-83 even approached +1 or greater in Nino 4. Technically speaking, Nino 4 remaining above +1 will constitute a full basin event since the forcing will lean west. 

Not a suprise to snowmen 1-18 and 20+.

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not a suprise to snowmen 1-18 and 20+.

I'm happy that this is actually becoming a basin wide event. was worried about that a few weeks ago

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I'm happy that this is actually becoming a basin wide event. was worried about that a few weeks ago

I mean, it's not everything...winter could still suck...but its something. 

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I mean, it's not everything...winter could still suck...but its something. 

if this ends up basin wide with the forcing still leaning west as it's been doing all summer, we're probably in business

very curious to see what the CanSIPS spits out on Friday

[bluewave]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not a suprise to snowmen 1-18 and 20+.

Give me a 30 day pattern like this and I don’t care what the rest of the winter does.

 

[brooklynwx99]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Give me a 30 day pattern like this and I don’t care what the rest of the winter does.

 

looking at the projected forcing for the start of September, we're seeing the forcing displaced far west towards the dateline or even west of it! this is much farther west than 2015, 1997, 1982, and 1972. 1972 is perhaps the closest, but it's still too far east overall

in fact, the forcing thus far is much more comparable to 2009, 2002, and 1963, with the core near the dateline as opposed to between 140-160W. 2002 is extremely similar. IMO there is no need to heavily rely on the classical EP Ninos when it's abundantly clear that this event isn't acting like one

[dmillz25]

Wow

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Wow

yeah it's definitely encouraging. still want to wait until October but I like what I'm seeing

[dmillz25]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah it's definitely encouraging. still want to wait until October but I like what I'm seeing

I agree but like you said it’s encouraging 

[raindancewx]

Now that the August heat wave centered on Texas is baked in, we've settled back into a very similar national temperature profile as in June. Heat is most severe in the middle of the US, and cool pockets exist by the coasts. This is one of my theories for the Fall-Spring, when the subsurface warms. Unfortunately, I don't think it is going to be the dominant pattern for the cold season.

It's been a while, but I can remember patterns where the jet stream does this in the winter for long stretches. I don't think its crazy to expect the entrenched Midwest/Plains dry spot to persist via a high over the Midwest. Eventually we'll get a May 2015 / 1957 and that'll destroy it, but may be late Spring before it comes. At some point I need to go back and see if I can find that dry spot in a developing El Nino.

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

looking at the projected forcing for the start of September, we're seeing the forcing displaced far west towards the dateline or even west of it! this is much farther west than 2015, 1997, 1982, and 1972. 1972 is perhaps the closest, but it's still too far east overall

in fact, the forcing thus far is much more comparable to 2009, 2002, and 1963, with the core near the dateline as opposed to between 140-160W. 2002 is extremely similar. IMO there is no need to heavily rely on the classical EP Ninos when it's abundantly clear that this event isn't acting like one

Probably no coincidence then that the best MEI match so far this year is 2002.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

looking at the projected forcing for the start of September, we're seeing the forcing displaced far west towards the dateline or even west of it! this is much farther west than 2015, 1997, 1982, and 1972. 1972 is perhaps the closest, but it's still too far east overall

in fact, the forcing thus far is much more comparable to 2009, 2002, and 1963, with the core near the dateline as opposed to between 140-160W. 2002 is extremely similar. IMO there is no need to heavily rely on the classical EP Ninos when it's abundantly clear that this event isn't acting like one

I said the exact same thing in my polar blog a couple of weeks ago...very similar to 2002 and 2009.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Probably no coincidence then that the best MEI match so far this year is 2002.

Yep.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

Now that the August heat wave centered on Texas is baked in, we've settled back into a very similar national temperature profile as in June. Heat is most severe in the middle of the US, and cool pockets exist by the coasts. This is one of my theories for the Fall-Spring, when the subsurface warms. Unfortunately, I don't think it is going to be the dominant pattern for the cold season.

It's been a while, but I can remember patterns where the jet stream does this in the winter for long stretches. I don't think its crazy to expect the entrenched Midwest/Plains dry spot to persist via a high over the Midwest. Eventually we'll get a May 2015 / 1957 and that'll destroy it, but may be late Spring before it comes. At some point I need to go back and see if I can find that dry spot in a developing El Nino.

Maybe 2002 to a degree...displaced a bit east.

[brooklynwx99]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I said the exact same thing in my polar blog a couple of weeks ago...very similar to 2002 and 2009.

it’s just odd since those are such banner weenie years… but if the shoe fits

[Terpeast]

24 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

it’s just odd since those are such banner weenie years… but if the shoe fits

This is going to be a particularly difficult winter outlook. My top analogs so far are 1972-73, 1991-92, 2002-03, 2015-16, and a couple of runner ups in 2009-10 and 1963-64. 

It is a loaded group, but with high bust potential being magnified by a warming world. 

Only thing I can say for certain is that this won’t be boring. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

This is going to be a particularly difficult winter outlook. My top analogs so far are 1972-73, 1991-92, 2002-03, 2015-16, and a couple of runner ups in 2009-10 and 1963-64. 

It is a loaded group, but with high bust potential being magnified by a warming world. 

Only thing I can say for certain is that this won’t be boring. 

There is quite a dichotomy among the top analogs and it's due to the behavior of the polar domain...this is why I attempted to use the solar cycle and QBO to gain insight into that a couple of week back. 

[snowman19]

The forecasted MJO wave over the western PAC looks real and is projected to gain strength as it moves across in the next several days. This will weaken the trade winds further, serve to initiate a WWB and enhance El Nino development going into September. The BOM’s new international average of models just came out and it has November at +2.2C, December at +2.3C and January at +2.2C, which is obviously weaker than what the new POAMA is showing but that was to be expected

[so_whats_happening]

51 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The forecasted MJO wave over the western PAC looks real and is projected to gain strength as it moves across in the next several days. This will weaken the trade winds further, serve to initiate a WWB and enhance El Nino development going into September. The BOM’s new international average of models just came out and it has November at +2.2C, December at +2.3C and January at +2.2C, which is obviously weaker than what the new POAMA is showing but that was to be expected

Are you talking about the forecasted emergence around phase 3 next week? Cause that is going to take time and shouldnt have any impact until late september if it does become a wave that is

[Ji]

Probably no coincidence then that the best MEI match so far this year is 2002.

Mitchnick?

[snowman19]

Are you talking about the forecasted emergence around phase 3 next week? Cause that is going to take time and shouldnt have any impact until late september if it does become a wave that is

I only said when it is forecasted to emerge. If you re-read my post didn’t say anything about when it enhances Nino development aside from saying “in September”. I don’t think it takes until the end of September but we’ll see

[so_whats_happening]

11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I only said when it is forecasted to emerge. If you re-read my post didn’t say anything about when it enhances Nino development aside from saying “in September”. I don’t think it takes until the end of September but we’ll see

So you left it purposely ambiguous... mjo waves take 30-45 days to cycle plus it is emerging in the indian ocean.

[40/70 Benchmark]

36 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I only said when it is forecasted to emerge. If you re-read my post didn’t say anything about when it enhances Nino development aside from saying “in September”. I don’t think it takes until the end of September but we’ll see

Well, "going into September" resonated with me as earlier in the month than later, but okay.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

it’s just odd since those are such banner weenie years… but if the shoe fits

To me, the safe way to interpret that at first glance is to not expect a wall-to-wall terd. Doesn't mean go nuts necessarily....especially with the ONI so high.

I think a reasonable floor is more of a 2015-2016 type of outcome in terms of snowfall...as opposed to 97-98 or 72-73.

 

[snowman19]

To me, the safe way to interpret that at first glance is to not expect a wall-to-wall terd. Doesn't mean go nuts necessarily....especially with the ONI so high.
I think a reasonable floor is more of a 2015-2016 type of outcome in terms of snowfall...as opposed to 97-98 or 72-73.
 

You can make an argument for 57-58 and 65-66. 02-03 and 09-10? I have serious issues with those given how this El Nino developed and is continuing to evolve, it’s night and day different, like not even remotely close. I know no one here has done it, but I’ve even seen 76-77 alluded to by JB and some other weenies on twitter, which is completely and utterly ridiculous, no comparison whatsoever

[griteater]

Yay, a bump downward in a sea of IOD and East Based Nino gone warm and wild!

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, so_whats_happening said:

So you left it purposely ambiguous... mjo waves take 30-45 days to cycle plus it is emerging in the indian ocean.

As far as a trimonthly average for NDJ, I don’t think +2.2C like the BOM is showing is unreasonable. I can absolutely see something like what is being shown…+2.2C, +2.3C, +2.2C (NDJ)….

[griteater]

Aug 22 to 27 TAO subsurface images.  Warm 'anomalies' (not means) are building west a bit at the surface, but also, the east-based warming is being reinforced at the surface and at depth...and the thermocline is flattening some with this wave moving east at depth.