El Nino 2023-2024

[GaWx]

 3.4 per OISST is now +1.6, which implies ERSST is likely +1.5+. It has warmed nearly 0.3 over just the last 9 days, the fastest warming since the rapid late May/early June warmup.

 Through June and July, combined, when the SOI averaged ~neutral much of the time, it warmed only 0.4. But Aug has already warmed 0.5 as the SOI (often a leading indicator) has been mainly negative the last 6 weeks. Based on this graph, Monday's update should be at +1.5. Aug MTD has risen to just over +1.3. With the recent rapid rise Aug OISST is headed toward ~+1.4, implying Aug ERSST of ~~+1.35.

 An Aug ERSST of +1.35 would make 2023 near 1957, just behind 1972's +1.40, and much warmer than 1982's +0.98 and especially 2009's mere +0.56. But it would be quite a bit cooler than 1965's +1.66 and especially 1997's/2015's +1.91/+1.93. So, Aug of 2023 looks to be near tied with 1957 for 4th warmest  for ONI. Now, RONI is a different story.

 

[snowman19]

24 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 3.4 per OISST is now +1.6, which implies ERSST is likely +1.5+. It has warmed nearly 0.3 over just the last 9 days, the fastest warming since the rapid late May/early June warmup.
 Through June and July, combined, when the SOI averaged ~neutral much of the time, it warmed only 0.4. But Aug has already warmed 0.5 as the SOI (often a leading indicator) has been mainly negative the last 6 weeks. Based on this graph, Monday's update should be at +1.5. Aug MTD has risen to just over +1.3. With the recent rapid rise Aug OISST is headed toward ~+1.4, implying Aug ERSST of ~~+1.35.
 An Aug ERSST of +1.35 would make 2023 near 1957, just behind 1972's +1.40, and much warmer than 1982's +0.98 and especially 2009's mere +0.56. But it would be quite a bit cooler than 1965's +1.66 and especially 1997's/2015's +1.91/+1.93. So, Aug of 2023 looks to be near tied with 1957 for 4th warmest  for ONI. Now, RONI is a different story.
 

The ongoing WWB/DWKW activity along with the -SOI is resulting in fast growth and warming of both the subsurface and surface in ENSO regions 3.4, 3 and 1+2. Bjerknes feedback is increasing. The atmosphere is finally coupling. With the monsoon ending and the strengthening +IOD constructively interfering with the Nino, it is only going to keep intensifying as we go into September. Here is the latest SST map, note the rapid cooling around Indonesia…an indication that the +IOD is strengthening, it’s already over +1 and I think the models actually under forecasted the strength of the event: 

[snowman19]

The ongoing WWB/DWKW activity along with the -SOI is resulting in fast growth and warming of both the subsurface and surface in ENSO regions 3.4, 3 and 1+2. Bjerknes feedback is increasing. The atmosphere is finally coupling. With the monsoon ending and the strengthening +IOD constructively interfering with the Nino, it is only going to keep intensifying as we go into September. Here is the latest SST map, note the rapid cooling around Indonesia…an indication that the +IOD is strengthening, it’s already over +1 and I think the models actually under forecasted the strength of the event: 

@Gawx Want to add that like you, I think we see a very rapid rise in the OHC in the next month. IMO we see explosive Nino development next month

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The ongoing WWB/DWKW activity along with the -SOI is resulting in fast growth and warming of both the subsurface and surface in ENSO regions 3.4, 3 and 1+2. Bjerknes feedback is increasing. The atmosphere is finally coupling. With the monsoon ending and the strengthening +IOD constructively interfering with the Nino, it is only going to keep intensifying as we go into September. Here is the latest SST map, note the rapid cooling around Indonesia…an indication that the +IOD is strengthening, it’s already over +1 and I think the models actually under forecasted the strength of the event: 

Current Gfs and Cfs2 runs (for better or for worse), would suggest otherwise. Don't know what other modeling is saying however. 

[George001]

El Niño has entered strong territory. Super is all but inevitable!

[snowman19]

Current Gfs and Cfs2 runs (for better or for worse), would suggest otherwise. Don't know what other modeling is saying however. 

Model error, forecasting trade wind bursts that aren’t going to happen. The monsoon is shutting down, it’s full speed ahead for this Nino now, the feedback system/Nino standing wave is already in place

[GaWx]

 I'm currently projecting an August ERSST 3.4 SSTa of ~+1.35. Looking at the 25 El Niño seasons since 1950, the average/median rise from Aug to peak month was 0.53/0.59 but the variation is huge from a mere .01 in 1987 and .06 in 2004 to a very large 1.09 in 1991, 1.17 in 2009, and 1.39 in 1982. To get a super ONI peak, I'd think that getting a single month peak of +2.15 would likely be enough. That would require a rise from Aug of 0.80. Only 6 of the 25 did that. Regardless, I'm expecting 2023 to be the 7th as of now based on strong model agreement. But we'll see.

[mitchnick]

27 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Model error, forecasting trade wind bursts that aren’t going to happen. The monsoon is shutting down, it’s full speed ahead for this Nino now, the feedback system/Nino standing wave is already in place

Idk know about forecasting in absolutes considering the variations in model MJO forecasts, but we'll know soon enough (as in a couple weeks if those trades verify.)

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I think it goes super on the weeklies by late October. That said, as @csnavywx posted, people are judging (and doubting) this El Niño and its evolution against the satellite era Ninos, can’t blame them since that’s the only real verifiable data we have. That sample size is extremely limited and small. Paul Roundy has been saying since March that this Nino was developing like the pre-satellite data Ninos of yester year. We are now seeing things really come together for a super El Nino event and come together in a VERY different way than the most recent super El Niños (72-73, 82-83, 97-98, 15-16) did….

1925, too.

[snowman19]

 I'm currently projecting an August ERSST 3.4 SSTa of ~+1.35. Looking at the 25 El Niño seasons since 1950, the average/median rise from Aug to peak month was 0.53/0.59 but the variation is huge from a mere .01 in 1987 and .06 in 2004 to a very large 1.09 in 1991, 1.17 in 2009, and 1.39 in 1982. To get a super ONI peak, I'd think that getting a single month peak of +2.15 would likely be enough. That would require a rise from Aug of 0.80. Only 6 of the 25 did that. Regardless, I'm expecting 2023 to be the 7th as of now based on strong model agreement. But we'll see.

I think we are at +2.0C or over on the weeklies by the end of October. NDJ is when I think the trimonthly ONI peak happens, then the models show it weakening, slowly, through March. Given the renewed surface and subsurface warming from the new WWB/DWKW in regions 1+2 and 3, I think this one stays east-based/EP through winter. I’m sticking to my guess range of +2.1C - +2.5C for the ultimate peak. IMO the question isn’t will this event go super anymore….it’s “where does the main forcing/Nino standing wave set up shop for the winter”

[MJO812]

Someone post the CFS Monthlies 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Someone post the CFS Monthlies 

Fwiw since the CFS is not a good model out just one month much less 4-6 months out, here's the CFS 2m temp anomaly (C) forecast for DJF based on the last 3 days/12 runs using 1984-2009 as base climo: (aside: Nino 3.4 SSTa peaks in Nov):

 

Precip anomalies for DJF:

[snowman19]

Fwiw since the CFS is not a good model out just one month much less 4-6 months out, here's the CFS 2m temp anomaly forecast for DJF based on the last 3 days/12 runs using 1984-2009 as base climo:

 
Precip anomalies for DJF:

The only one hyping it right now is delusional JB. He normally bashes it for being too warm, but today he loves it because it shows his wishcasted fantasy of a cold and snowy east coast winter for JFM

[Stormchaserchuck1]

31 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Precip anomalies for DJF:

We are still in a AN precip pattern, which I would think would last for EC through the Winter. Last Winter we had a top precip season with -NAO (they are usually drier), and I think the same general pattern is carrying forward.. 

[GaWx]

41 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The only one hyping it right now is delusional JB. He normally bashes it for being too warm, but today he loves it because it shows his wishcasted fantasy of a cold and snowy east coast winter for JFM

 The average of the last 3 days of CFS runs for JFM isn't cold fwiw (I have no idea about snow as the maps don't show it). For hype purposes, he likes to post ONE run at a time when it has BN temps even though the CFS is a terrible model because that's how JB does things (just about all of us know this though):

 

JFM precip: mainly near normal fwiw

[Terpeast]

57 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The average of the last 3 days of CFS runs for JFM isn't cold fwiw (I have no idea about snow as the maps don't show it). For hype purposes, he likes to post ONE run at a time when it has BN temps even though the CFS is a terrible model because that's how JB does things (just about all of us know this though):

 

JFM precip: mainly near normal fwiw

JFM 23 would be a shade of red with nearly 4C AN. Even with light yellow or slightly AN temps JFM 24, it would feel a lot colder than last winter. 

[George001]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The only one hyping it right now is delusional JB. He normally bashes it for being too warm, but today he loves it because it shows his wishcasted fantasy of a cold and snowy east coast winter for JFM

Doesn’t look cold and snowy to me, looks like the typical super nino induced mild PAC air flooding the country pattern.

[GaWx]

43 minutes ago, George001 said:

Doesn’t look cold and snowy to me, looks like the typical super nino induced mild PAC air flooding the country pattern.

It is just JB looking at ONE cold run of a terrible model even though the last 12 averaged out show slightly warmer than normal. He's not going to show mild runs, of course. Also, JB said nothing nor showed anything addressing snow in his tweet. This is what he said:

"what a CFSV2 run for JFM. whats interesting is it has a correlation to our chief analogs. Cold tries to come in November, December opposite of last year is warm then the hammer comes down. Gotta to migrate the warmest water into enso 3.4 for winter. ( Migrating Modoki)"

--------------

 Now just because JB does this all of the time doesn't mean he can't be right this time as a broken clock is right twice a day. As someone who enjoys winter, I hope he's right even though in most years that he's hyped a cold winter he hasn't done well. Here in the SE US and up into the Mid-Atlantic states, El Niño on average gives the best shot at a cold winter. One coming right after La Niña, especially more than one year's worth, probably helps even more. We're looking at a possible record breaking rise of the ONI from the prior year's La Niña low point, a huge shake up which I hope is a mechanism that leads to drastic changes in the upcoming winter vs last winter.

[brooklynwx99]

2 hours ago, George001 said:

Doesn’t look cold and snowy to me, looks like the typical super nino induced mild PAC air flooding the country pattern.

it’s the only seasonal model that shows that FWIW

[weathafella]

I think mild and wet but not too mild can work for us ala 2012-13.  I’m not implying I believe that but verbatim my 0.5-1C above normal may not reduce snow and in fact it could enhance it if precipitation cooperates.  But it’s also likely that we’ll have a very strong STJ so we have to time little dips right.  I’m among the few here that remember 1957-58 and 1963-64.  I’d take those and run at this point.

[bluewave]

I believe the most anomalously warm ENSO region for late August is Nino 4. Nino 1+2 and 3 were warmer in 1997. But someone can check and see how close Nino 4 is to the record near +30 C. So it’s no surprise that the forcing will focus near the Dateline. Very rare modoki forcing with 1+2 and 3 influence getting muted. 

[snowman19]

I believe the most anomalously warm ENSO region for late August is Nino 4. Nino 1+2 and 3 were warmer in 1997. But someone can check and see how close Nino 4 is to the record near +30 C. So it’s no surprise that the forcing will focus near the Dateline. Very rare modoki forcing with 1+2 and 3 influence getting muted. 

If this El Nino goes stays east-based and goes super ONI (very likely) and the forcing actually stays there this winter, THAT would definitely be an extremely rare first. Something to watch over the next 3 months….

[brooklynwx99]

14 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If this El Nino goes stays east-based and goes super ONI (very likely) and the forcing actually stays there this winter, THAT would definitely be an extremely rare first. Something to watch over the next 3 months….

it’s not likely that this is going to remain east based. this is in the process of becoming basin wide, as all models have advertised as we head into the fall

[snowman19]

it’s not likely that this is going to remain east based. this is in the process of becoming basin wide, as all models have advertised as we head into the fall

The models all show regions 1+2 and 3 remaining warmer than 3.4 and 4 through January. Given the ongoing, renewed subsurface warming under regions 1+2 and 3 (WWB/DWKW), I see no reason to doubt that scenario. The OHC is also going back up, already over +1, along with the constructive interference from the strengthening +IOD leads me to believe that we in fact do see a super trimonthly ONI peak as well

[GaWx]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

I believe the most anomalously warm ENSO region for late August is Nino 4. Nino 1+2 and 3 were warmer in 1997. But someone can check and see how close Nino 4 is to the record near +30 C. So it’s no surprise that the forcing will focus near the Dateline. Very rare modoki forcing with 1+2 and 3 influence getting muted. 

The record high Nino 4 per the monthly OISST table back to 1982 is 30.22 (Nov of 2015). The 2nd warmest Nino 4 is 29.84 and is a tie (Nov of 2009 and Dec of 2015). Aug of 2023 is projected to be ~29.64. But the warmest Aug, alone, is the 29.42 of 2015. So, that will be easily passed. It will be interesting to see what the Nino 4 peak will be. If I'm not mistaken, the warmest models (BoM, Euro, Meteo-France and JMA) have it getting to ~30.40-30.45. But the coolest (CFS and UKMET) only get it to ~29.80. Of course, the warming globe is a big factor in making attaining records easier in all regions.
 

 The record warmest for June and July were in 2015 with 2018 second and 2023, third.

[snowman19]

The +IOD is strengthening rapidly, up to +1.1 and the new model runs got stronger with the peak and also keep it above +1 through January now before weakening it in February. The new POAMA doubled down with the El Niño, it peaks region 3.4 in NDJ, gets it up to +2.7C in November and up to +3.0C in both December and January. It initializes August at +1.2C, which is cooler, yes cooler, than what it actually will be for this month (probably over +1.3C) ENSO: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ocean/outlooks/#region=NINO34 IOD:  http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ocean/outlooks/#region=IOD 

[Typhoon Tip]

No one asked ... just an op ed moment:

There seems to be a 'prediction competition' with regard to this warm ENSO era?  Perhaps non-disclosed... 

Personally, I believe that while a precise prediction "weather" (nyuk nyuk) a given warm(cool) ENSO period may have some value, only "some".  Then, considering such precision can't really be made given the present day convention, it seems the consternation and energy spent doing so only provides a very limited return value...

Somebody involved in this forum engagement may or may not covet some sort of unique genius in ENSO prediction research ... If so, why you hangin' around here?  Go to NCEP and offer your services for 150,000K/yr.  But even if you could ... the utility side after the fact is still only partial.  I don't mean to imply one should not try - it may be a fun hobby if nothing else.

Otherwise, the best use of one's time is researching the bigger picture, the fuller planetary integral of forces that have become just as ( if not more so... ) important in forecasting how/what ENSO means in winter forcing.  It seems more and more so that the constant "fuzz" of competing constructive vs destructive interference' amid that total manifold, 'emerges' the winter complexion - this more synergistic approach is intuitive, really.

Because very discrete 'strength' distinctions are meaningless noise compared to the machinery of the whole thing.  

I would start in determining the frequency and possible causes of the uncoupled states.  These appear to be increasing in frequency spanning the last 10 to 20 years.  There's nothing really worse in this science (or any discipline) than thinking you've go it, operating along a pathway, only to find out it was paved by false positives.

[snowman19]

This is the +IOD response that should push the SOI more deeply negative https://x.com/selwyyyyn/status/1696043822529360130?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw 

[Eskimo Joe]

19 hours ago, Terpeast said:

JFM 23 would be a shade of red with nearly 4C AN. Even with light yellow or slightly AN temps JFM 24, it would feel a lot colder than last winter. 

Just about anything would feel colder and snowier compared to last winter. At least south of 40N.

[snowman19]

On 8/26/2023 at 3:44 PM, GaWx said:

 3.4 per OISST is now +1.6, which implies ERSST is likely +1.5+. It has warmed nearly 0.3 over just the last 9 days, the fastest warming since the rapid late May/early June warmup.

 Through June and July, combined, when the SOI averaged ~neutral much of the time, it warmed only 0.4. But Aug has already warmed 0.5 as the SOI (often a leading indicator) has been mainly negative the last 6 weeks. Based on this graph, Monday's update should be at +1.5. Aug MTD has risen to just over +1.3. With the recent rapid rise Aug OISST is headed toward ~+1.4, implying Aug ERSST of ~~+1.35.

 An Aug ERSST of +1.35 would make 2023 near 1957, just behind 1972's +1.40, and much warmer than 1982's +0.98 and especially 2009's mere +0.56. But it would be quite a bit cooler than 1965's +1.66 and especially 1997's/2015's +1.91/+1.93. So, Aug of 2023 looks to be near tied with 1957 for 4th warmest  for ONI. Now, RONI is a different story.

 

The new weeklies have 3.4 at +1.5C (strong), 3 at +2.2C (super), 1+2 at +3.1C (super) and 4 at +1.1C (moderate)