El Nino 2023-2024

[brooklynwx99]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The Nino has gone strong in region 3.4 on the CRW (over +1.5C), yesterday’s OISST update wasn’t far behind at over +1.44….. 

isn't it averaged for the month, though? so August would be at like 1.35-1.4, no?

[GaWx]

7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

isn't it averaged for the month, though? so August would be at like 1.35-1.4, no?

 Yes, Aug on OISST through today is averaging ~+1.275. It will likely end up near the +1.3 to +1.35 range for August as a whole. That implies that ERSST will probably end up near +1.25 to perhaps +1.30 for Aug.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

isn't it averaged for the month, though? so August would be at like 1.35-1.4, no?

That is one practice I have noticed from folks on social media...they obsess over the daily fluxations and pleasure themselves to each new daily max like one giant ENSO orgy. All of these important metrics are lagged for a reason...it needs to sustain.

[snowman19]

isn't it averaged for the month, though? so August would be at like 1.35-1.4, no?

I’m concerned about where it’s going for September, and where the starting point for that month is going to be but yea, August probably averages around +1.3C as a whole

[bdgwx]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is one practice I have noticed from folks on social media...they obsess over the daily fluxations and pleasure themselves to each new daily max like one giant ENSO orgy. All of these important metrics are lagged for a reason...it needs to sustain.

I get what you are saying and I agree wrt to the lagged response. However, I want to present a different perspective. I run my own machine learning model for predicting the global average temperature. I use daily inputs to continuously refine the predictions. I do this to give myself as much of an edge as possible in the prediction markets (eg. here and here). One obvious input is the ENSO 3.4 value. Even mere hundredths of a degree change in the GAT prediction can result in significant changes in the probabilities and ultimately the optimal investment strategy. Yes, I monitor this thread and the data you guys present like a hawk and on a daily basis. You guys are a wealth of information BTW!

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, bdgwx said:

I get what you are saying and I agree wrt to the lagged response. However, I want to present a different perspective. I run my own machine learning model for predicting the global average temperature. I use daily inputs to continuously refine the predictions. I do this to give myself as much of an edge as possible in the prediction markets (eg. here and here). One obvious input is the ENSO 3.4 value. Even mere hundredths of a degree change in the GAT prediction can result in significant changes in the probabilities and ultimately the optimal investment strategy. Yes, I monitor this thread and the data you guys present like a hawk and on a daily basis. You guys are a wealth of information BTW!

Well, that is different...you need to ensure your model is ingesting all of the latest data. That is different from claiming el nino is strong because the daily hit 1.5.

[snowman19]

Well, that is different...you need to ensure your model is ingesting all of the latest data. That is different from claiming el nino is strong because the daily hit 1.5.

The daily hitting +1.5C would make the daily reading strong would it not? Am I supposed to say the daily reading is weak?

[GaWx]

8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The daily hitting +1.5C would make the daily reading strong would it not? Am I supposed to say the daily reading is weak?

Yes, +1.5C is usually considered the start of strong. So, OISST dailies have just made it to there although ERSST is likely slightly cooler.  I think what he's saying is that one day, alone, isn't enough to upgrade to strong since dailies fluctuate a lot. Regardless, it is just a matter of time imo. I'm pretty confident that Sept on ERSST will be the first strong month.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, GaWx said:

Yes, +1.5C is usually considered the start of strong. So, OISST dailies have just made it to there although ERSST is likely slightly cooler.  I think what he's saying is that one day, alone, isn't enough to upgrade to strong since dailies fluctuate a lot. Regardless, it is just a matter of time imo. I'm pretty confident that Sept on ERSST will be the first strong month.

Yes. I didn't think the concept was that elusive to grasp.

[brooklynwx99]

8 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The daily hitting +1.5C would make the daily reading strong would it not? Am I supposed to say the daily reading is weak?

no, you’re not wrong per se, but a strong Nino implies a three month averaged ONI at or above +1.5C

[snowman19]

+IOD gaining strength @raindancewx

[George001]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

https://x.com/165thjoyful/status/1694951998259687457?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw https://x.com/165thjoyful/status/1694951822967161299?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw 

What would you say a reasonable lower and upper end outcome for this nino is now based on the latest developments? I am expecting another bump in the guidance next month based on how aggressive the warming has been recently. I would say the probability of this being a strong nino at the peak is rapidly declining. Super is looking more and more likely.

[snowman19]

What would you say a reasonable lower and upper end outcome for this nino is now based on the latest developments? I am expecting another bump in the guidance next month based on how aggressive the warming has been recently. I would say the probability of this being a strong nino at the peak is rapidly declining. Super is looking more and more likely.

IMO this El Niño is going super trimonthly ONI, I’m getting more confident in that opinion by the day. I also think it stays east-based/EP and I think the +IOD gets stronger than what the models had originally projected. What happens with the forcing come November is what I’m watching….

[George001]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

IMO this El Niño is going super trimonthly ONI, I’m getting more confident in that opinion by the day. I also think it stays east-based/EP and I think the +IOD gets stronger than what the models had originally projected. What happens with the forcing come November is what I’m watching….

I agree, I’m thinking a good 4 months of super nino conditions. October, November, December, and January. Even Feb is possible if the nino is slower to weaken than expected which happens sometimes.

[csnavywx]

On 8/23/2023 at 6:30 PM, roardog said:

I like how there’s so many mixed signals and differing opinions this year. In 2015 at this time you knew a super Nino was coming. As an enthusiast of this stuff, I find this year more interesting. 

If I had to guess, it's evolving more like a pre-satellite era Nino and we're trying to use satellite era data to reference against it. Nothing wrong with that per se, as it's our only reference point, but it's been a good lesson so far in the perils of small sample sizes.

[Eskimo Joe]

I'd give real money for a nice classic cold stretch from Dec 15 to Jan 15 with a solid Miller A from RIC to BOS dropping 6" - 10" for a White Christmas.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I'd give real money for a nice classic cold stretch from Dec 15 to Jan 15 with a solid Miller A from RIC to BOS dropping 6" - 10" for a White Christmas.

I could envision a pattern scaffold/'shape' tendency that aligns (at times but not always...) with that thinking. Perhaps from late October to mid Dec. But not as much with the details that flesh it out.  Like,  beware warmer variant. 

 

[roardog]

It looks like the MJO might finally make a move. It looks like it might make a move into the maritime continent phases. I know Bluewave has been talking about a Nina like pattern for early September. The MJO moving into those phases would support that. I wouldn’t expect a lot of extreme negative SOI days during this time either if this pattern comes to fruition. 

[snowman19]

5 hours ago, csnavywx said:

If I had to guess, it's evolving more like a pre-satellite era Nino and we're trying to use satellite era data to reference against it. Nothing wrong with that per se, as it's our only reference point, but it's been a good lesson so far in the perils of small sample sizes.

Excellent point. And @Gawx, the OHC is above +1 again and it’s coupling. The WWB and EPAC DWKW is strengthening. @raindancewx Here it comes…

[snowman19]

It looks like the MJO might finally make a move. It looks like it might make a move into the maritime continent phases. I know Bluewave has been talking about a Nina like pattern for early September. The MJO moving into those phases would support that. I wouldn’t expect a lot of extreme negative SOI days during this time either if this pattern comes to fruition. 

[roardog]

25 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

Maybe it will rotate into those phases but that’s not what the models are forecasting for early in the month. Of course the models could also be wrong since we are talking a couple of weeks out. 

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Excellent point. And @Gawx, the OHC is above +1 again and it’s coupling. The WWB and EPAC DWKW is strengthening. Here it comes…

 Indeed, the OHC is now pretty rapidly rebounding as I've been expecting. If I weren't expecting this rebound, I wouldn't have recently warmed my forecasted ONI to a super ONI peak (with 70% probability). It still needs to increase quite a bit more (preferably to well above the mid June high of +1.30 to +1.35) to give good support for a super ONI peak, but this is a significant start.
 

 So, the anomaly plunged ~0.60 C from mid June til ~July 20th. But over the last 30 days, it has risen 0.25 to 0.30 or nearly half of that prior 0.60 drop. I expect it to continue rebounding. If the warming rate of the last 30 days were to continue, it could get back to the mid June high as soon as late September. If so, there'd still be a two or so month long period for subsequent significant warming opportunities since OHC during a one year El Niño peaks on average in November (usually between Oct and Dec). That's when we could see this become quite impressive:

[snowman19]

 Indeed, the OHC is now pretty rapidly rebounding as I've been expecting. If I weren't expecting this rebound, I wouldn't have recently warmed my forecasted ONI to a super ONI peak (with 70% probability). It still needs to increase quite a bit more (preferably to well above the mid June high of +1.30 to +1.35) to give good support for a super ONI peak, but this is a significant start.
 
 So, the anomaly plunged ~0.60 C from mid June til ~July 20th. But over the last 30 days, it has risen 0.25 to 0.30 or nearly half of that prior 0.60 drop. I expect it to continue rebounding. If the warming rate of the last 30 days were to continue, it could get back to the mid June high as soon as late September. If so, there'd still be a two or so month long period for subsequent significant warming opportunities since OHC during a one year El Niño peaks on average in November (usually between Oct and Dec). That's when we could see this become quite impressive:

Agreed. IMO this El Nino reaches super (+2.0C) on the weeklies by the end of October. I think we will be talking about this event for many, many years to come. Research papers are going to be written about this one

[George001]

46 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Agreed. IMO this El Nino reaches super (+2.0C) on the weeklies by the end of October. I think we will be talking about this event for many, many years to come. Research papers are going to be written about this one

I’m starting to think there is an outside shot it goes super by the last week of September. It’s unlikely, but with how rapid the increase has been over the past couple weeks if that continues it can’t be ruled out.

[snowman19]

12 hours ago, George001 said:

I’m starting to think there is an outside shot it goes super by the last week of September. It’s unlikely, but with how rapid the increase has been over the past couple weeks if that continues it can’t be ruled out.

I think it goes super on the weeklies by late October. That said, as @csnavywx posted, people are judging (and doubting) this El Niño and its evolution against the satellite era Ninos, can’t blame them since that’s the only real verifiable data we have. That sample size is extremely limited and small. Paul Roundy has been saying since March that this Nino was developing like the pre-satellite data Ninos of yester year. We are now seeing things really come together for a super El Nino event and come together in a VERY different way than the most recent super El Niños (72-73, 82-83, 97-98, 15-16) did….

[SnoSki14]

21 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

no, you’re not wrong per se, but a strong Nino implies a three month averaged ONI at or above +1.5C

Despite this Ninos evolution the comparisons to other super Ninos is unwarranted. 

Bluewave has posted time and time again that the forcing is vastly different and we're still closer to a La Nina state than strong Nino. 

[bluewave]

19 hours ago, csnavywx said:

If I had to guess, it's evolving more like a pre-satellite era Nino and we're trying to use satellite era data to reference against it. Nothing wrong with that per se, as it's our only reference point, but it's been a good lesson so far in the perils of small sample sizes.

Yeah, very small sample size and the current subsurface doesn’t match any of the past cases in the JMA extended subsurface data set. At least in 1997 and 2016, we could see the upper ocean heat anomalies near 2c. This time we are only half that amount. So it’s hard to know how much warming is in pipeline.

[MJO812]

42 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Despite this Ninos evolution the comparisons to other super Ninos is unwarranted. 

Bluewave has posted time and time again that the forcing is vastly different and we're still closer to a La Nina state than strong Nino. 

Give me an El Nino anyway over a La Nina. NYC got its biggest snowstorm in a strong El Nino.

 

[Great Snow 1717]

48 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Give me an El Nino anyway over a La Nina. NYC got its biggest snowstorm in a strong El Nino.

 

Winter 23-24 =2023 Mets season....

[brooklynwx99]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

You are laughably clueless and have no idea what you’re talking about as always. Most useless troll on this forum. Nothing but asinine nonsense from you. You contribute nothing

chill the fuck out dude lmao