El Nino 2023-2024

[bluewave]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The monsoon has to end first, that will happen in early September 

Pattern looking very La Niña-like to start September with strong Maritime Continent forcing despite the IOD and SOI. So the WPAC warm pool is continuing to call the shots.

 

[snowman19]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If you want to make it even simpler, guess which is the only one of those seasons with a disturbed polar region?

There are reasons why the others all featured strong PV.

If anything the extreme amounts of water vapor in the stratosphere from Hunga Tonga argues for a cold stratosphere/strong SPV/++NAM, one factor I know but still…

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If anything the extreme amounts of water vapor in the stratosphere from Hunga Tonga argues for a cold stratosphere/strong SPV/++NAM, one factor I know but still…

According to research, the max impact is during the first DJF period following the eruption....and it takes about 3-6 months to work into the atmosphere. Any compelling reason why it will have a greater impact 24 months removed from the January 2022 eruption than it did 12 months removed?

S02 was never much of a factor in this eruption, but it has also peaked.

[brooklynwx99]

the ascending solar activity approaching a max, -QBO, and general strong Nino forcing pretty solidly favor HL blocking this winter. the projected western lean to the forcing bolsters that even more so

not exactly worried about a lack of blocking this winter

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the ascending solar activity approaching a max, -QBO, and general strong Nino forcing pretty solidly favor HL blocking this winter. the projected western lean to the forcing bolsters that even more so

not exactly worried about a lack of blocking this winter

Me neither.

Preliminary Analysis of the Polar Landscape for Boreal Winter 2023-2024 | Eastern Mass Weather

[snowman19]

According to research, the max impact is during the first DJF period following the eruption....and it takes about 6 months to work into the atmosphere. Any compelling reason why it will have a greater impact 24 months removed from the January 2022 eruption than it did 12 months removed?
S02 was never much of a factor in this eruption, but it has also peaked.

The effects were on the southern hemisphere first, it took longer to migrate into the northern hemisphere

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The effects were on the southern hemisphere first, it took longer to migrate into the northern hemisphere

 Nice try....a year is long enough regardless of where it takes place.

[brooklynwx99]

42 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 Nice try....a year is long enough regardless of where it takes place.

pretty much two years at this point as well. the SPV is on the weaker end of normal, if anything. then, normal variability afterwards

[so_whats_happening]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The reason why the IOD going positive is important is this….it is going to end the eastern hemispheric monsoon quickly, which should bolster the El Niño. According to the latest data, it’s climbing rather quickly, actually ahead of where it was forecasted to be at this point in time. Also, would appear the SOI has gone very solidly negative again https://x.com/jnmet/status/1694001198754570382?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw 

But the monsoon typically ends this time of year im not sure i understand that if the IOD goes positive that the monsoon season will end, quicker. 

Ending of the season would probably bolster a spike in IOD. The positive also seems like it is from a really warm western indian ocean rather than a better gradient of warm west cool east. We have cooled near the maritime but still are fighting to have sustained negative anoms outside of nw australia.

[so_whats_happening]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Pattern looking very La Niña-like to start September with strong Maritime Continent forcing despite the IOD and SOI. So the WPAC warm pool is continuing to call the shots.

 

That looks to choke off the EPAC hurricane season a bit, which is unusual in an el nino. Atlantic may have 1 or 2 pop up from that look but they may struggle. WPAC may go in for a bit again. That should definitely help with the PDO signal to more of a neutral look. Although we are seeing some pretty stark cooling in spots of Ne pac over recent days to week.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, so_whats_happening said:

That looks to choke off the EPAC hurricane season a bit, which is unusual in an el nino. Atlantic may have 1 or 2 pop up from that look but they may struggle. WPAC may go in for a bit again. That should definitely help with the PDO signal to more of a neutral look. Although we are seeing some pretty stark cooling in spots of Ne pac over recent days to week.

It seems  like the historic marine heatwave near Japan is inhibiting the PDO from going positive. The strongly negative PDO is another factor that goes against some of the more aggressive ENSO models becoming super. All 4 super El Niños since 72-73 had a neutral or plosive PDO in August. So we have the WPAC, PDO, and subsurface vastly different from all 4 past super events. But that may be too small a sample size to be definitive. We’ll see how it goes.
 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

pretty much two years at this point as well. the SPV is on the weaker end of normal, if anything. then, normal variability afterwards

NVM the fact that the initial impacts in the SH were the powerful PV a year ago...plenty to time for SH to feel the impact another 6 months later, last winter.

[so_whats_happening]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

It seems  like the historic marine heatwave near Japan is inhibiting the PDO from going positive. The strongly negative PDO is another factor that goes against some of the more aggressive ENSO models becoming super. All 4 super El Niños since 72-73 had a neutral or plosive PDO in August. So we have the WPAC, PDO, and subsurface vastly different from all 4 past super events. But that may be too small a sample size to be definitive. We’ll see how it goes.
 

 

 

Nice daily or weekly PDO? Also is that on the climate reanalyzer site?

Yea you can see the persistence of the ridge in the NW PAC region. You can see a rather drastic difference in the high latitudes where low pressure has been fairly present across the Arctic this year leaving mid latitude ridging instead of like we saw in 97 and 82. 2015 was a bit different but overall still pretty consistent with the other years (bit of a mix happened that year, but we also already had rather warm temps across the entire basin leading into the El Nino development. 1972 actually was not too far off from what is happening but in all of these cases the southern hemisphere definitely had more anomalous troughing around Tahiti region versus what we are currently seeing.

[roardog]

So much for those tweets back in May about how the PDO was quickly changing to positive. Is it just me or is twitter full of overreaction with this stuff? I think it was a tweet from DT that was posted in this thread a few months ago proclaiming the PDO was going positive because the water was warming south if Alaska. lol

[raindancewx]

Looking back, May-July was a pretty close match to 1951, 1972, 1982, 1991, 1997, 2009 for precipitation trends nationally. I've fudged the scale by 15% to account for the extra moisture from the volcano. That blend is actually pretty decent for both temps and precipitation, especially if you get cute with the weighting. I'll wait until September to be sure, but some combination of those years, with anti-1993 looks like a good bet for the winter.

They're generally high solar El Nino years following cold ENSO, with the QBO close enough, and a couple of the -PDO / Volcanic El Ninos in there.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Pretty clear pattern among every analog set...including Raindance's....the ones with blocking were good out this way.

[bluewave]

12 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Nice daily or weekly PDO? Also is that on the climate reanalyzer site?

It’s on the World Climate Service free SST page.

https://s2s.worldclimateservice.com/climatepanel/

 

 

[griteater]

Update to TAO loop (in 10-day increments).  Some downwelling warmth moving in on the latest image

[griteater]

For a SST forecast, I like a slightly cooler version of the 72-73 analog.  On CPC ONI, that one peaked at 2.1 / 2.1 / 1.8.  I think this year's won't move from East-Based to Basin-wide until late or very late winter

 

[GaWx]

25 minutes ago, griteater said:

Update to TAO loop (in 10-day increments).  Some downwelling warmth moving in on the latest image

 Per the graph below and consistent with your animation, it does appear to me like it may finally be starting to reaccelerate upward. Your animation ends about four days (your last image centered on 8/20) after the graph below, which ends near 8/16. I continue to expect a significant OHC rebound over the next few months (likely to new highs for this El Niño), which would be needed to support the Nino 3.4 ONI peak of +2.0+ that I now think is likely (70% chance):

[Typhoon Tip]

20 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the ascending solar activity approaching a max, -QBO, and general strong Nino forcing pretty solidly favor HL blocking this winter. the projected western lean to the forcing bolsters that even more so

not exactly worried about a lack of blocking this winter

Fwiw, the solar activity does not, however... just sayn'

[bluewave]

Closest developing El Niño 500 mb analogs to this summer were 2014 and 2009. Notice the strong blocking near Greenland and the +PNA ridge over British Columbia. Also the trough in the Great Lakes to Northeast. But this summer was much warmer than those two years due to the record global temperatures well above 2014 and 2009.

 

 

[brooklynwx99]

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Fwiw, the solar activity does not, however... just sayn'

I mean, ascending solar activity, especially near the max seems to favor a -NAO more than not. not a perfect correlation, but still favors it

[George001]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I mean, ascending solar activity, especially near the max seems to favor a -NAO more than not. not a perfect correlation, but still favors it

What’s the correlation coefficient for this?

[brooklynwx99]

11 minutes ago, George001 said:

What’s the correlation coefficient for this?

it's not stated in the paper: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/2013JD021343

here's a temperature composite they devised for all of the solar phases... ascending towards a max is quite favorable

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, griteater said:

For a SST forecast, I like a slightly cooler version of the 72-73 analog.  On CPC ONI, that one peaked at 2.1 / 2.1 / 1.8.  I think this year's won't move from East-Based to Basin-wide until late or very late winter

 

I agree, given the renewed subsurface warming under regions 1+2 and 3 from the WWB/DWKW, I think this Nino stays a classic east-based/EP event, all the models show regions 1+2 and 3 staying warmer than 3.4 and 4 through January. Bjerknes (positive) feedback is already going in earnest in those regions. Also, as @Gawx pointed out, the OHC is climbing again and we are about to experience a strong round of -SOI…I’m going a little higher than you for the region 3.4 trimonthly ONI peak, I’m thinking +2.1C - +2.5C for NDJ. This +IOD was under forecasted IMO, I think we see a strong event, we’re already ahead of schedule and it just started. Strong +IOD correlates very well to +ENSO 

 

[GaWx]

5 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I mean, ascending solar activity, especially near the max seems to favor a -NAO more than not. not a perfect correlation, but still favors it

 I appreciate your work and optimism about a -NAO this winter since I'm also a winter lover and thus hope you're right. Over the last 44 winters, -NAOs (I define as sub -0.25) for DJF have been few and far between:

1984-5: (NAO -0.70) (moderate La Niña) headed down in cycle 21 with limited sunspots averaging only 20/month; this was 20 months before the minimum of Sept 1986

1986-7: (NAO -0.30) (moderate El Niño) very early in cycle 22 four months after the Sept 86 minimum with very limited sunspots of only 6/month 

1995-6: (NAO -0.62) (moderate La Niña) headed down in cycle 22 with limited sunspots of only 12/month nine months before Sept 1996 minimum

2009-10: (NAO -1.67) (strong El Niño) one year into cycle 24 at 13 months after the Dec 2008 minimum just starting to head upward but with still limited sunspots of only 22/month

2010-11: (NAO -0.68) (strong La Niña) two years into cycle 24 at 25 months after the Dec 2008 minimum headed further up but still low at 33/month

2020-1: (NAO -0.42) (moderate La Niña) early into cycle 25 at 13 months after the Dec of 2019 minimum just starting to head up but still with limited sunspots of only 14/month

---------------------

 Note that there has been either one or two -NAO winters during each of the last four quiet portions of the cycles!

 So, based on the last 44 years of -NAO winters, the data clearly shows that being within two years of a minimum (ascending or descending) along with limited sunspots (so, nowhere near a cycle max) has given the best chance for a -NAO winter. The average distance from minimum was only 14 months.

 So, for these last six -NAO winters, the average monthly sunspots were all low to very low: 20, 6, 12, 22, 33, and 14 for an average of only 18. This 18 compares to the longtime average monthly sunspots of 85 (based on 1900-2022 data).

  ---------

 Where are we going to be in the current solar cycle this winter? 49 months past the prior minimum (Dec of 2019), which is much closer to the upcoming maximum than the prior minimum. We're at 134/month so far in 2023 with it rising. So, per extrapolation, there's a very good chance that this winter will be 150+ or not far from twice the longterm average of 85. So, very high sunspot activity nearing a maximum is quite likely.

 So, if this winter were to have a -NAO, it would be practically totally opposite of the others over the last 44 years regarding the solar cycle. This along with there being a -NAO (sub -0.25) during only 1/7 of the last 44 winters and only one of the last 12 winters tells me that anyone who doesn't predict a winter -NAO often but is doing so this winter would deserve major kudos if a -NAO were to verify since the odds seem to me to be so stacked against it. Thus, it will quite interesting to see what happens this winter, -NAO or not. As a winter lover, I'd love to see the recently rare -NAO. I'll probably later also post this in the winter prediction thread.

Monthly NAO since 1950:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

 

Monthly sunspots:

https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/SN_m_tot_V2.0.txt
 

 

[snowman19]

31 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I agree, given the renewed subsurface warming under regions 1+2 and 3 from the WWB/DWKW, I think this Nino stays a classic east-based/EP event, all the models show regions 1+2 and 3 staying warmer than 3.4 and 4 through January. Bjerknes (positive) feedback is already going in earnest in those regions. Also, as @Gawx pointed out, the OHC is climbing again and we are about to experience a strong round of -SOI…I’m going a little higher than you for the region 3.4 trimonthly ONI peak, I’m thinking +2.1C - +2.5C for NDJ. This +IOD was under forecasted IMO, I think we see a strong event, we’re already ahead of schedule and it just started. Strong +IOD correlates very well to +ENSO 

 

https://x.com/bennollweather/status/1694421806835450262?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw  

 

[snowman19]

On 8/22/2023 at 2:30 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 Nice try....a year is long enough regardless of where it takes place.

@Volcanic Winter Could you offer some insight into this please?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Ben Noll is the top contributor in this thread. 

It does help to know ENSO mechanics, instead of relying solely on analog-climo for facts. I can't wait to see the string of posts about a +4 Dec and -2 Feb (I have a colder Dec signal). The mechanics of ENSO should work more evenly all winter..