El Nino 2023-2024

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Also, using the most -PDO years on the JISAO index, -1 or below for Nov-Apr since 1931, you have very few cold seasons:

Dec-Feb	N-A PDO	Next DJF
1955	-2.63	LA
1971	-1.78	EL
1948	-1.62	LA
1961	-1.53	N
1949	-1.50	LA
1990	-1.48	EL
1970	-1.45	LA
1975	-1.42	EL
2008	-1.39	EL
1950	-1.35	EL
2011	-1.28	N
1973	-1.14	LA
1956	-1.07	EL
1951	-1.02	N

The PDO value for Nov-Mar 2022-23 is currently -1.54. Here is the blend of the six El Ninos after the most -PDO cold seasons. Fairly similar to what the Canadian showed for strength and placement? PDO/AMO are very different though.

Quite a dichotomy evident amongst those 6 winters....3 great ones for the NE, and 3 terds.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Candian looks like a basin-wide event to me...I definitely would not call it a modoki, but not heavily east based, either....slight eastern lean, but that doesn't look like a death knell-non-starter to me.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Canadian kind of resembles 1957 in the ENSO region, but the PDO doensn't look as high.

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Best match all around is probably 1972-1973, but the fact that 1957-1958 is similar in the ENSO region confirms my suspicion that that ENSO el nino orientation, as depicted is not a death knell in and of itself...just need to hope the Pacific gets a little better than that model suggests.

[40/70 Benchmark]

It looks to be like the length of these decadal -PDO cycles is usually anywhere from about 5-10 years. And we look to have begun this one in about 2017, so while it is possible we are about ready to end it, its more likely that we have a couple of years left statistically speaking. That said, a shift to warm ENSO is ordinarily the impetus for change. Whether or not this one flips it is likely the difference between a 1957-1958 type of evolution, or a 1972-1973.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Assuming el nino is not heavily east biased, extra tropical influences on the polar domain will also be of the utmost importance. If we can muster up some intense episodes of blocking like we did this past season, then we should be okay. 1972-1973 was void of that, and 1957-1958 was defintely not....so again, this tells me that the character of el nino, as depicted on the Canadian, is not prohibitive to the development of high latitude blocking during the ensuing cold season.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I couldn't care any less about what the Canadian has over the polar domain for winter at this lead time....has about as much value to me as 99.9% of the posts in OT.

[snowman19]

Assuming el nino is not heavily east biased, extra tropical influences on the polar domain will also be of the utmost importance. If we can muster up some intense episodes of blocking like we did this past season, then we should be okay. 1972-1973 was void of that, and 1957-1958 was defintely not....so again, this tells me that the character of el nino, as depicted on the Canadian, is not prohibitive to the development of high latitude blocking during the ensuing cold season.

Evidence continues to mount for a strong El Niño event, as of right now, only 1997 and 1982 were warmer than the present:

[George001]

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Evidence continues to mount for a strong El Niño event, as of right now, only 1997 and 1982 were warmer than the present:

Yeah, looks like this El Niño will be quite powerful. Mean of roughly +1.6 ONI OND.

[40/70 Benchmark]

31 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Evidence continues to mount for a strong El Niño event, as of right now, only 1997 and 1982 were warmer than the present:

No arguments with that....1957, 1965 and 1972 camp, most likely...all of which occurred during -PDO portion of multi decadal cycle.

2/3 featured a great deal of blocking....like I said, ENSO in and of itself should not be a deal breaker.

Maybe winter will be awful like 1972, which is totally possible....but its not a given.

[40/70 Benchmark]

[snowman19]

No arguments with that....1957, 1965 and 1972 camp, most likely...all of which occurred during -PDO portion of multi decadal cycle.
2/3 featured a great deal of blocking....like I said, ENSO in and of itself should not be a deal breaker.
Maybe winter will be awful like 1972, which is totally possible....but its not a given.

I think the question will be does it become basin-wide or stays east-based. Unless something changes dramatically over the next several months (possible), I highly doubt a Modoki event. East-based events tend to be more frequent during -PDO cycles

[Terpeast]

23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No arguments with that....1957, 1965 and 1972 camp, most likely...all of which occurred during -PDO portion of multi decadal cycle.

2/3 featured a great deal of blocking....like I said, ENSO in and of itself should not be a deal breaker.

Maybe winter will be awful like 1972, which is totally possible....but its not a given.

Two great winters for the MA, and one ratter. Could go either way, but I checked IAD temps for DJF 72-73 expecting a torch, but found near normal temps throughout. 

Deep south got 1 great snowstorm at least. 

Could have been atrociously bad luck for the MA? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Two great winters for the MA, and one ratter. Could go either way, but I checked IAD temps for DJF 72-73 expecting a torch, but found near normal temps throughout. 

Deep south got 1 great snowstorm at least. 

Could have been atrociously bad luck for the MA? 

There was some bad luck, but it was also probably a lot of deals where the cold would come in between storms....with no blocking and -PNA, the storms would cut and flip to rain, cold comes in behind, rinse and repeat.

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There was some bad luck, but it was also probably a lot of deals where the cold would come in between storms....with no blocking and -PNA, the storms would cut and flip to rain, cold comes in behind, rinse and repeat.

Yeah, just eyeballing daily h/l temps it certainly seemed to follow a warm/wet cold/dry pattern 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I think the question will be does it become basin-wide or stays east-based. Unless something changes dramatically over the next several months (possible), I highly doubt a Modoki event. East-based events tend to be more frequent during -PDO cycles

Will probably end up basin wide.... Canadian doesn't look unreasonable.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Yeah, just eyeballing daily h/l temps it certainly seemed to follow a warm/wet cold/dry pattern 

I mean, think about it...how much snow do you normally get in VA with -PNA/+NAO combo?

[Terpeast]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I mean, think about it...how much snow do you normally get in VA with -PNA/+NAO combo?

About as often as it did this year. But even then, we used to cash in on smaller 1-3/2-4” events in setups like these. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

About as often as it did this year. But even then, we used to cash in on smaller 1-3/2-4” events in setups like these. 

Without having looked, I can just about guarantee you that the EPO was negative that season, which explains the cold delivery post storm despite the -PNA/+NAO/+AO. No other way to explain it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Without having looked, I can just about guarantee you that the EPO was negative that season, which explains the cold delivery post storm despite the -PNA/+NAO/+AO. No other way to explain it.

Actually, it wasn't...maybe just an active storm track muted the warmth because it was pretty wet. Some cold probably couldn't help but bleed east behind the lows, too.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Pattern wasn't too dissimilar from this past season, minus the two big episodes of NAO blocking.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Without having looked, I can just about guarantee you that the EPO was negative that season, which explains the cold delivery post storm despite the -PNA/+NAO/+AO. No other way to explain it.

 Per the link below, DJF EPO for 1972-3 averaged modestly negative with D/F averaging negative and Jan positive. The EPO tended to have one to two week long periods alternating between + and -.

 Daily EPO:

https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/epo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt
 
 The Deep South had not just one but two historic winter storms that winter (though in different areas):

1) The aforementioned record breaking snowstorm of Feb 9-11, which even gave us way down here a very rare 3.2" thanks to a GOM Miller A storm that crossed way south (central FL). That was at the end of a weeklong solid -EPO. There was a slight +PNA, a strong +AO, and a +NAO:

https://www.weather.gov/ilm/Feb1973Snow

2) A terrible icestorm that was at or near the worst ever in Atlanta Jan 7-8, which was in the midst of a 12 day long solid -EPO, a short-lived strong -NAO (one of only three that season), a slight +AO that was surrounded by strong +AO, and a neutral PNA. There was a very cold, large 1045 mb high centered over the N Plains with CAD/E winds ridging way down on the E side of the Appalachians being overrun by moist, mild WSW flow (with a very weak Gulf coast low):

 

Maps:

https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1973/19730108-19730114.pdf
 

Story:

https://www.army.mil/article/198866/45_years_ago_georgia_national_guard_responds_to_1973_winter_storms

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Pattern wasn't too dissimilar from this past season, minus the two big episodes of NAO blocking.

Which makes it even more mind boggling. We can somewhat understand this season because Jan-Feb was a +8 torch through and through, and us not producing for the 2 blocking episodes was bad luck. 

But 72-73 was wet with near normal temps. It probably should have been a decent or even a big winter since it was not that warm then. Bad luck as much as the +nao. 

[bluewave]

The Central Pacific Trade Wind Index was stronger this March than before the the 82-83, 97-98, and 15-16 events. So the WWBs were displaced closer to the EPAC than in March those years. The stronger event years began with much stronger WWBs in the CPAC. This event is featuring very strong east based warming in March which took longer to occur in even east based years like 97-98. Not sure what if any influence this will have on the ultimate strength and location of the warmest SST anomalies later on. But the CPAC trades will need to relax in the coming months if this is to become a stronger event. Still early in the game so a lot can change. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/cpac850

 

850 MB TRADE WIND INDEX(175W-140W)5N 5S  CENTRAL PACIFIC                        
                        ANOMALY   
              

2023   3.4   3.7   1.6
2015  -2.1  -1.2  -0.6 
1997  -0.6   2.2  -1.6 
1982   0.8  -0.8  -0.9

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Looks like we could have a -NOI around mid-month, and looking at N. Hemisphere pressure patterns, a -SOI of significance possibly Apr 15-20.. This is the first real expanded effect of El Nino that we've seen, if it happens (it was a model flip at 0z and 6z)

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It looks to be like the length of these decadal -PDO cycles is usually anywhere from about 5-10 years. And we look to have begun this one in about 2017, so while it is possible we are about ready to end it, its more likely that we have a couple of years left statistically speaking. That said, a shift to warm ENSO is ordinarily the impetus for change. Whether or not this one flips it is likely the difference between a 1957-1958 type of evolution, or a 1972-1973.

I found that we are more likely to have +PNA the next 4 Winter's, using satellite recorded PDO conditions (also independent from ENSO). It was + the 1950s extremes. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I remain very impressed at the high correlation between central subsurface temperatures and the North Pacific pattern (PNA). Nothing else, no other measurement, even comes close. (I've tested SOI, zonal winds, OLR etc. take out their correlation to subsurface and it's <0.20 correlation real time)

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It looks to be like the length of these decadal -PDO cycles is usually anywhere from about 5-10 years. And we look to have begun this one in about 2017, so while it is possible we are about ready to end it, its more likely that we have a couple of years left statistically speaking. That said, a shift to warm ENSO is ordinarily the impetus for change. Whether or not this one flips it is likely the difference between a 1957-1958 type of evolution, or a 1972-1973.

 

Interesting-- so 1957-58 was the trigger that gave us the great winters in the 60s? (1959-60 tail end, 1960-61, 1963-64, 1966-67, etc.)

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Which makes it even more mind boggling. We can somewhat understand this season because Jan-Feb was a +8 torch through and through, and us not producing for the 2 blocking episodes was bad luck. 

But 72-73 was wet with near normal temps. It probably should have been a decent or even a big winter since it was not that warm then. Bad luck as much as the +nao. 

Some say that the sst in the Atlantic are what kept this past winter from producing.  Either way, the pacific is far more influential in our weather than the atlantic, so a -nao wont do anything if the pacific is horrible.

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah, just eyeballing daily h/l temps it certainly seemed to follow a warm/wet cold/dry pattern 

these things run in cycles, we had a similar sequence in the 80s and early 90s