El Nino 2023-2024

[Terpeast]

50 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Most tend to hoot at the notion but the climate change signal is large swing variability with increased short duration cold latter October through November into early Dec ... Then, gradient intense hemisphere with higher tropospheric torque during mid terms lending to more rain/ice.  

It seems to be taking place despite the antecedent ENSO variance, too.  

We'll see.   

If I'm understanding your post correctly, you're saying that as we progress into winter (with CC) the jet and AAM both get stronger because of a stronger temp gradient between the tropics and polar region? 

I would think we'd actually get a "lazier" and more meridional jet stream. Isn't that what happened last winter? Just that the meridional structure didn't land where we wanted, and CA happened to get the jackpot of it. Am I misunderstanding you?

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

If I'm understanding your post correctly, you're saying that as we progress into winter (with CC) the jet and AAM both get stronger because of a stronger temp gradient between the tropics and polar region? 

I would think we'd actually get a "lazier" and more meridional jet stream. Isn't that what happened last winter? Just that the meridional structure didn't land where we wanted, and CA happened to get the jackpot of it. Am I misunderstanding you?

Lol, you nailed it on the first paragraph.

But the second paragraph hmm. Last winter was both per my own observation. I saw the gradient go from above normal to more normal, oscillations that seem to last two to three weeks, but biased in favor of more gradient.  

I’m not refuting - I’m more asking really because I saw a lot of that gradient saturation at times. But yes there were times when less.  

There are two types of that velocity problem, though… One is direct shear related in terms of fluid mechanics. The other one is related to wave propagation speed.  What I saw last mid winter was kind of a relay between progressive wave translation vs -

[snowman19]

The subsurface has cooled quite a bit in the eastern regions this summer. So there will need to be another kelvin wave in order to maintain those levels. Absent a new kelvin wave, we are set for an unusually early peak in Nino 1+2 and 3. Which would probably lead to a peak in 3.4 about 4-6 weeks after that. So not the usual El Niño timing if the subsurface counties to cool. None of the very strong El Niño events of the past had a subsurface cooling trend during the summer. 
 
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/wkxzteq.shtml

After about the 1st week of September, the monsoon circulation in the eastern hemisphere should completely collapse and that’s when the trades should fall apart/reverse and region 3.4 warming should really take off in a big way

[Miss Pixee]

LOL lot of data posted here, and I have my popcorn: 

BTW, does anyone value the "Siberian Snow Cover" factor any more, or has that gone the way of the DoDo?

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, Pixee said:

LOL lot of data posted here, and I have my popcorn: 

BTW, does anyone value the "Siberian Snow Cover" factor any more, or has that gone the way of the DoDo?

Its just one tool....the problem is that everyone is looking for a that fail-proof "silver bullet" in seasonal forecasting and once we realize that any new concept isn't that, then its automatically mocked and considered useless. No wonder progress is so slow with that mindset because I don't think there is any failproof indicator....the atmosphere is too complicated.

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Anyone know of a MEI v2 dataset that goes back to 1950? I know it only goes back to 1979, but I wonder if anyone has adjusted MEI v1 data from 1950-1978 to reflect MEI v2?

1948.

Multivariate ENSO Index (webberweather.com)

[Terpeast]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1948.

Multivariate ENSO Index (webberweather.com)

The one that goes back to 1948 is still v1. 

I’m assuming that there is no v2 pre 1979 because it incorporates satellite data. 

[snowman19]

The +IOD regime has started, jumped up to +0.79 on the new update 

 

[GaWx]

23 hours ago, bluewave said:

This El Niño continues to do its own thing. 

 

 The wild OISST Nino 1+2 anomaly, which plunged ~0.5C yesterday and nearly 0.9C over just a three day interval, rebounded by nearly half of yesterday's drop today from 2.756C yesterday to 2.980C today (see below). But it still has a long way to get back to the top. Thus, I do lean toward the top being in based on using model consensus as a guide.
 

 Nino 1+2 was reported today to be at +3.3 again. Nino 3.4 rose from +1.2 to +1.3, Nino 3 rose from 1.8 to 2.0, and Nino 4 remained at 0.9. Based on model projections, I expect the current east based Nino (1+2 and 3) to eventually yield to a cross between east and center based for DJF. By F, itself, it would probably be getting close to center based.

 

[snowman19]

@GaWxRegion 3.4 is now over +1.4C on the OISST 

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The wild OISST Nino 1+2 anomaly, which plunged ~0.5C yesterday and nearly 0.9C over just a three day interval, rebounded by nearly half of yesterday's drop today from 2.756C yesterday to 2.980C today (see below). But it still has a long way to get back to the top. Thus, I do lean toward the top being in based on using model consensus as a guide.
 

 Nino 1+2 was reported today to be at +3.3 again. Nino 3.4 rise from +1.2 to +1.3, Nino 3 rose from 1.8 to 2.0, and Nino 4 remained at 0.9. Based on model projections, I expect the current east based Nino (1+2 and 3) to eventually yield to a cross between east and center based for DJF. By F, itself, it would probably be getting close to center based.

 

looks like this is becoming a basin-wide Nino as the models have projected. all seems to be on track there

[bluewave]

21 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The wild OISST Nino 1+2 anomaly, which plunged ~0.5C yesterday and nearly 0.9C over just a three day interval, rebounded by nearly half of yesterday's drop today from 2.756C yesterday to 2.980C today (see below). But it still has a long way to get back to the top. Thus, I do lean toward the top being in based on using model consensus as a guide.
 

 Nino 1+2 was reported today to be at +3.3 again. Nino 3.4 rose from +1.2 to +1.3, Nino 3 rose from 1.8 to 2.0, and Nino 4 remained at 0.9. Based on model projections, I expect the current east based Nino (1+2 and 3) to eventually yield to a cross between east and center based for DJF. By F, itself, it would probably be getting close to center based.

 

Nino 1+2 can be very noisy since it’s such a small geographic area. But the subsurface has been gradually cooling over the summer from the Dateline to the South American coast. None of the super El Niño’s showed a decline in upper ocean heat content to near +1.00 from June into August. But we only have a small sample size of 3 years since the data became available in 1979. The El Niño experts on twitter haven’t mentioned much about these declining values. They mostly are talking about what the models show in regard to the SSTs. But we know how the models have had errors with their forecasts even from late summer into early fall. 
 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

[snowman19]

Nino 1+2 can be very noisy since it’s such a small geographic area. But the subsurface has been gradually cooling over the summer from the Dateline to the South American coast. None of the super El Niño’s showed a decline in upper ocean heat content to near +1.00 from June into August. But we only have a small sample size of 3 years since the data became available in 1979. The El Niño experts on twitter haven’t mentioned much about these declining values. They mostly are talking about what the models show in regard to the SSTs. But we know how the models have had errors with their forecasts even from late summer into early fall. 
 
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

As I mentioned above, the +IOD just officially got going on the new update (+0.79). Early next month, the monsoon circulation ends in the eastern hemisphere and that’s when this El Niño should get going and start really warming up. The end of the monsoon should kill the trade winds off in the central PAC and that’s when the WWB/DWKW activity begins in earnest

[GaWx]

28 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

looks like this is becoming a basin-wide Nino as the models have projected. all seems to be on track there

 Indeed, the models suggest it will eventually move away from strongly east based like it is now. But in the meantime it will take a good bit of time since it is so strongly east based now and thus they suggest Nino 3 anomalies will likely still be warmer than 3.4 through Dec with them perhaps getting close together in Jan and maybe matching each other in Feb. Nino 4 anomalies remain cooler than Nino 3.4 through Jan. on all of the models. 

[snowman19]

 Indeed, the models suggest it will eventually move away from strongly east based like it is now. But in the meantime it will take a good bit of time since it is so strongly east based now and thus they suggest Nino 3 anomalies will likely still be warmer than 3.4 through Dec with them perhaps getting close together in Jan and maybe matching each other in Feb. Nino 4 anomalies remain cooler than Nino 3.4 through Jan. on all of the models. 

Correct, literally all the models show regions 1+2 and 3 remaining warmer than regions 3.4 and 4 right through January

[bluewave]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

As I mentioned above, the +IOD just officially got going on the new update (+0.79). Early next month, the monsoon circulation ends in the eastern hemisphere and that’s when this El Niño should get going and start really warming up. The end of the monsoon should kill the trade winds off in the central PAC and that’s when the WWB/DWKW activity begins in earnest

The IOD influence is pretty far west of the main WPAC warm pool from the Dateline back to north of Australia. Notice the vast expanse of +30C SSTs in that region. So Nino 4 is currently the warmest of the ENSO regions. This is where the forcing has been focusing all summer. The subsurface in the Nino 3 and 1+2 areas has been getting less over the summer. So there isn’t much warming left in the pipeline beyond the current levels absent another kelvin wave for the eastern regions. But there is a lag in 3.4 which can run up further following the eventual 1+2 peak. So 3.4 usually peaks after. Need a new kelvin wave to warm the subsurface since it’s dipping to around 0.9 which isn’t in line with past super events. Those were going +1.5 to +2.0 or higher during the past super events since 1980 from August into September. So need a steady rise in upper ocean heat in order for some of the stronger model forecast for 3.4 to verify. We’ll see if we finally get some stronger WWBs in the CPAC leading to a new kelvin wave and upper ocean heat increase going into the fall.

https://psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst.shtml

[snowman19]

50 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The IOD influence is pretty far west of the main WPAC warm pool from the Dateline back to north of Australia. Notice the vast expanse of +30C SSTs in that region. So Nino 4 is currently the warmest of the ENSO regions. This is where the forcing has been focusing all summer. The subsurface in the Nino 3 and 1+2 areas has been getting less over the summer. So there isn’t much warming left in the pipeline beyond the current levels absent another kelvin wave for the eastern regions. But there is a lag in 3.4 which can run up further following the eventual 1+2 peak. So 3.4 usually peaks after. Will need a new kelvin wave to warm the subsurface since it’s dipping to around 0.9 which isn’t in line with past super events. Those were going +1.5 to +2.0 or higher during the past super events since 1980 from August into September. So need a steady rise in upper ocean heat in order for some of the stronger model forecast for 3.4 to verify. We’ll see if we finally get some stronger WWBs in the CPAC leading to a new kelvin wave and upper ocean heat increase going into the fall.

https://psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst.shtml

Once the monsoon is gone, it’s all systems go time for the Nino. Good bye trade winds. IMO we will see the strong WWB and DWKWs you speak of. Here comes the +IOD assist 

 

[so_whats_happening]

The IOD only took four months to finally reach semi positive status...

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Once the monsoon is gone, it’s all systems go time for the Nino. Good bye trade winds. IMO we will see the strong WWB and DWKWs you speak of. Here comes the +IOD assist 

 

The IOD is really only a global influence when it gets very strong like in 2019. Plus that event completely reversed during the winter with record SSTs north of Australia and a raging MJO 4-6. Need a record level IOD to move the needle much on the state of the AO. No indication at this point that an event that strong is in the cards. So the IOD may not be much of a climate driver outside of the local regional influence in that part of the world. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 hours ago, Terpeast said:

The one that goes back to 1948 is still v1. 

I’m assuming that there is no v2 pre 1979 because it incorporates satellite data. 

Right.

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Indeed, the models suggest it will eventually move away from strongly east based like it is now. But in the meantime it will take a good bit of time since it is so strongly east based now and thus they suggest Nino 3 anomalies will likely still be warmer than 3.4 through Dec with them perhaps getting close together in Jan and maybe matching each other in Feb. Nino 4 anomalies remain cooler than Nino 3.4 through Jan. on all of the models. 

More importantly, the forcing remains west....my guess is they meet somewhere in the middle (150-160Wish?), as max anomalies slide westward and forcing eastward.

[George001]

According to NOAA enso 3.4 averaged +1.3 this past week. That is in line with the more aggressive guidance and puts this nino on track to become strong by September, and super by November.

[Eskimo Joe]

19 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The +IOD regime has started, jumped up to +0.79 on the new update 

 

I'm going to ask a selfish question. What, if any, impact does a IOD have on high latitude blocking for North America?

[Terpeast]

50 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I'm going to ask a selfish question. What, if any, impact does a IOD have on high latitude blocking for North America?

Maybe none. 

I thought it would have an influence, but the correlation is 0.12 between IOD and AO, and -0.16 vs NAO.

Could be a lag effect that I'm missing here. I was excited about the IOD at first yesterday when bluewave talked about the potential effect it had on the 19-20 season, but after digging into the data myself, I just don't see a slam dunk effect by the IOD. 

[griteater]

Keeping this simple (for my own sake), the moderate to strongly positive IOD fall years during +ENSO / El Nino haven't translated to wintry winters in the East as a whole for the most part (19-20, 15-16, 06-07, 97-98, 94-95, 72-73, 63-64 *this last one was wintry).  Of course, 3 of those are super ninos, so that factors in.  The IOD typically fades in late fall, so there must be a sort of lag effect into winter, not uncommon with SST effects on weather...but I would think that a robust IOD would foster convection in the Indian Ocean during fall/winter which propagates east into the Maritime Continent at times (La Nina like...MJO phases 2-3-4).

Other El Ninos that did not experience a mod or strong postive IOD would include: 14-15, 09-10, 04-05, 02-03, 91-92, 87-88, 86-87, 82-83 *this one did have a high but short-lived spike, 77-78, 76-77, 69-70, 68-69, 65-66

This is from the Australian BOM.  Just scanning thru old IOD graphs, it looks like what would be considered mod and strong +IOD would be a non-short period in the fall where the IOD is +1.0 or higher.

 

 

On the latest UKMet Office data, the IOD is up to +1.18 after a recent, sharp spike.  1994 and 2009 shown for comparison...

 

 

[snowman19]

The IOD is really only a global influence when it gets very strong like in 2019. Plus that event completely reversed during the winter with record SSTs north of Australia and a raging MJO 4-6. Need a record level IOD to move the needle much on the state of the AO. No indication at this point that an event that strong is in the cards. So the IOD may not be much of a climate driver outside of the local regional influence in that part of the world. 

The reason why the IOD going positive is important is this….it is going to end the eastern hemispheric monsoon quickly, which should bolster the El Niño. According to the latest data, it’s climbing rather quickly, actually ahead of where it was forecasted to be at this point in time. Also, would appear the SOI has gone very solidly negative again https://x.com/jnmet/status/1694001198754570382?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw 

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The reason why the IOD going positive is important is this….it is going to end the eastern hemispheric monsoon quickly, which should bolster Nino development and it’s going to help suppress MJO phases 3-6 and keep it out of those Niña phases. According to the latest data, it’s climbing rather quickly, actually ahead of where it was forecasted to be at this point in time. Also, would appear the SOI has gone very solidly negative again https://x.com/jnmet/status/1694001198754570382?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw 

It’s not having much influence suppressing the trades which are set to return after the recent WWB pattern. Even with the strong east based ongoing WWB, the Nino 1+2 region couldn’t push above +4 like it did back in 1997. This shows hat the warming I the eastern regions is getting close to its limit absent a strong kelvin wave and significant subsurface warming. 
 

[snowman19]

Just now, bluewave said:

It’s not having much influence suppressing the trades which are set to return after the recent WWB pattern. 
 

The monsoon has to end first, that will happen in early September 

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 minutes ago, griteater said:

Keeping this simple (for my own sake), the moderate to strongly positive IOD fall years during +ENSO / El Nino haven't translated to wintry winters in the East as a whole for the most part (19-20, 15-16, 06-07, 97-98, 94-95, 72-73, 63-64 *this last one was wintry).  Of course, 3 of those are super ninos, so that factors in.  The IOD typically fades in late fall, so there must be a sort of lag effect into winter, not uncommon with SST effects on weather...but I would think that a robust IOD would foster convection in the Indian Ocean during fall/winter which propagates east into the Maritime Continent at times (La Nina like...MJO phases 2-3-4).

Other El Ninos that did not experience a mod or strong postive IOD would include: 14-15, 09-10, 04-05, 02-03, 91-92, 87-88, 86-87, 82-83 *this one did have a high but short-lived spike, 77-78, 76-77, 69-70, 68-69, 65-66

This is from the Australian BOM.  Just scanning thru old IOD graphs, it looks like what would be considered mod and strong +IOD would be a non-short period in the fall where the IOD is +1.0 or higher.

 

 

On the latest UKMet Office data, the IOD is up to +1.18 after a recent, sharp spike.  1994 and 2009 shown for comparison...

 

 

If you want to make it even simpler, guess which is the only one of those seasons with a disturbed polar region?

There are reasons why the others all featured a strong PV.

[snowman19]

From HM: https://x.com/antmasiello/status/1693972459962146932?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw https://x.com/antmasiello/status/1693979265379754146?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw https://x.com/antmasiello/status/1693975229322686476?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw