El Nino 2023-2024

[GaWx]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Not surprising. The strong WWB is continuing in the eastern and central Pacific right now and you also have this: https://x.com/jnmet/status/1692559270028456417?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

Those diagrams suggest a transition from east based in OND to a cross between east based and central based DJF.

[snowman19]

Those diagrams suggest a transition from east based in OND to a cross between east based and central based DJF.

Right, it seems region 3.4 is going to be the western limit of the Nino warming. All the major warming/warmth being shown is concentrated in regions 1+2, 3 and 3.4.

[George001]

36 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Right, it seems region 3.4 is going to be the western limit of the Nino warming. All the major warming/warmth being shown is concentrated in regions 1+2, 3 and 3.4. Region 4 is really going to struggle and be the coolest out of the ENSO regions….if you look at the subsurface beneath region 4, all the warmth is already gone and is being replaced by cold subsurface anomalies

A lot of people on this thread owe Paul Roundy an apology!

[George001]

I don’t see any reason to doubt the strength of the El Niño at this point. It is already at +1.2 (moderate) in August, and is showing no signs of slowing down anytime soon. And that is only the ENSO 3.4 region, the ENSO 3 region is +1.8 (strong), and the ENSO 1.2 region is +3.3 (super). Even the ENSO 4 region is at +.9, which is weak but considering that this is a classing eastern pacific (EP) event, that is really impressive. I am expecting the next IRI update to show a significant increase in ENSO strength with the mean being a super peak instead of strong. For those who are rooting for a super nino, there is plenty of reason to be excited with how this nino is developing.

[George001]

Just took a look, and yep the mean for the IRI dynamical guidance increased from +1.809 (strong) in July to +2.06 (super) in August.

[snowman19]

Just took a look, and yep the mean for the IRI dynamical guidance increased from +1.809 (strong) in July to +2.06 (super) in August.

The new dynamic model average is for a super El Niño, as GaWx already posted. The average is a super trimonthly ONI peak for NDJ. We have consensus….CFS, CANSIPS, EURO, BOM, JMA, UKMET, MeteoFrance…all unanimously show a super Nino now

[bluewave]

Much warmer west and cooler east than at this point in 1997. That’s why the forcing has been much further west this summer. The present Nino 4 is near record levels of warmth for this time of year. So while the highest departures are in 1+2 and 3, Nino 4 is  warmer for actual SSTs.

The much cooler subsurface than in 1997 suggests that 1+2 and 3 will peak earlier this year than 97-98 did. The main question is whether we can get a fall (SON) peak instead of winter for 1+2 and 3 which would influence the all important winter forcing location. 97-98 featured a 1+2 peak in NDJ. 

 

[snowman19]

Much warmer west and cooler east than at this point in 1997. That’s why the forcing has been much further west this summer. The present Nino 4 is near record levels of warmth for this time of year. So while the highest departures are in 1+2 and 3, Nino 4 is  warmer for actual SSTs.
The much cooler subsurface than in 1997 suggests that 1+2 and 3 will peak earlier this year than 97-98 did. The main question is whether we can get a fall (SON) peak instead of winter for 1+2 and 3 which would influence the all important winter forcing location. 97-98 featured a 1+2 peak in NDJ. 


 

We are going to have to wait until November to see where we stand obviously, but assuming ENSO region 3.4 goes super as all the models now show, and we get a healthy +IOD event, I would be shocked if the forcing doesn’t move east. How far east? Who knows. 3.4 going super is going to dramatically affect the global heat budget and something is going to have to give. I can’t imagine seeing La Niña forcing just staying in place given that projected setup. But again, let’s see where we are 3 months from now

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

We are going to have to wait until November to see where we stand obviously, but assuming ENSO region 3.4 goes super as all the models now show, and we get a healthy +IOD event, I would be shocked if the forcing doesn’t move east. How far east? Who knows. 3.4 going super is going to dramatically affect the global heat budget and something is going to have to give. I can’t imagine seeing La Niña forcing just staying in place given that projected setup. But again, let’s see where we are 3 months from now

The subsurface is a bit perplexing compared to years that went super. While the OISST Nino 3 is near +2 and 3.4 is getting closer to +1.5, the subsurface is much less impressive than super El Niño summers at this point. So I think it’s going to be more difficult to predict the specifics this year compared to other strong to super years. While we have the +IOD developing, it’s only showing a relatively small region of cooling SW of Indonesia. The WPAC in general is much warmer than most  very strong El Niño years. So the low skill seasonal models may even be if less use this year than other years.

[brooklynwx99]

46 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

We are going to have to wait until November to see where we stand obviously, but assuming ENSO region 3.4 goes super as all the models now show, and we get a healthy +IOD event, I would be shocked if the forcing doesn’t move east. How far east? Who knows. 3.4 going super is going to dramatically affect the global heat budget and something is going to have to give. I can’t imagine seeing La Niña forcing just staying in place given that projected setup. But again, let’s see where we are 3 months from now

it wouldn’t be La Niña forcing though, it would be bouts of basin wide to west based Nino forcing. it’s not that ridiculous when the WPAC is at warm as it is 

the same boiling WPAC kept the MJO pinned farther west for 2021 and 2022, so this is probably what the modeling is hinting at

[bluewave]

45 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

it wouldn’t be La Niña forcing though, it would be bouts of basin wide to west based Nino forcing. it’s not that ridiculous when the WPAC is at warm as it is 

the same boiling WPAC kept the MJO pinned farther west for 2021 and 2022, so this is probably what the modeling is hinting at

Its possible that there could be a period of Nina-like forcing like we saw during the super El Niño back in December 2015. The WPAC has been doing its own thing in recent years. It was the first strong MJO 4-6 in a super El Niño. 
 

 

[George001]

41 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

it wouldn’t be La Niña forcing though, it would be bouts of basin wide to west based Nino forcing. it’s not that ridiculous when the WPAC is at warm as it is 

the same boiling WPAC kept the MJO pinned farther west for 2021 and 2022, so this is probably what the modeling is hinting at

Regardless, it will be a super nino. The classical super nino forecast is a blowtorch winter with an increased chance at one huge storm (like 2015-2016). That seems like a reasonable expectation for this coming winter. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Do we really think the models have any idea what will happen in the winter yet? August was supposed to be dry in the SW - a lot of places in the driest deserts are about to get locally 3-10 years of rain in a few days. You have record levels of precipitation available from Tonga and ocean heat globally. 

I really don't get the logic in these threads anymore. You guys all thought last year would be an East based La Nina. That was what you wanted, since it favors a cold East so you didn't look at forcing.

Now this year, everything looks like an East-based El Nino that will eventually collapse toward a basin wide or Modoki look sometime in Feb-May. That's dis-favorable, so you all go to forcing as the crutch.

I don't think it's a lock that this event transitions quickly enough to get severe cold and snow in the East. The looks that resemble Jan-Mar 2010 will probably intermittently occur in late January to early March. Is it going to matter? The entire northern half of the continent is going to be flooded with very warm (50s?) air from late Nov to late January.

We're still paralleling 1982 broadly in three month periods. The Norman, Paul, and especially Olivia East Pacific hurricanes brought unusual heavy rain to Baja / US California. Summer 1982 was very hot centered on the TX/MX border, with most of the rest of the US seasonal to cool. You don't have this shit with the dying hurricanes bringing heavy rain into the SW US in the Modoki El Ninos. Its years like 1982, 1997, 2015 that have it.

Don't you use seasonal guidance to validate some of your thoughts? I know I have seen you do that....

I don't get the logic of implying that anyone is expecting a 2009-2010 redux. This is a forum with alot of hobbyists and we learn as we go...I'm not sure why you feel the need to assume it's anything other than that, or the need to use a "crutch". I can only speak for myself and try to look at what went wrong and adjust, which is why I'm trying to not be so over reliant on ENSO ssts. I think you are the best forecaster on this forum, but you are so adversarial....either someone is copying you, or they are a moron and you can't bother to entertain their thought process. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

We are going to have to wait until November to see where we stand obviously, but assuming ENSO region 3.4 goes super as all the models now show, and we get a healthy +IOD event, I would be shocked if the forcing doesn’t move east. How far east? Who knows. 3.4 going super is going to dramatically affect the global heat budget and something is going to have to give. I can’t imagine seeing La Niña forcing just staying in place given that projected setup. But again, let’s see where we are 3 months from now

I have already said that I wouldn't expect a cold winter with a ONI near 2.0....all I am implying is that there are signs that it won't be another all-out disaster for eastern snow enthusiasts. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Why not? Would you expect a cold winter with ONI near -2.0? I think it can be easily proven that Strong El Nino's that had a bad pattern, were from times with more La Nina-like forcing (nothing is perfect).

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Why not? Would you expect a cold winter with ONI near -2.0? I think it can be easily proven that Strong El Nino's that had a bad pattern, were from times with more La Nina-like forcing (nothing is perfect).

I would need to see overwhelming evidence late in the fall...odds always favor warmer this day and age...doesn't mean its going to be a snowless torch bc I don't think it will.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would need to see overwhelming evidence late in the fall...odds always favor warmer this day and age...doesn't mean its going to be a snowless torch bc I don't think it will.

I think the small sample set of Strong El Nino's has gotten a little bit carried away. Strong Nina's are a strong signal for -PNA and +EPO. negative subsurface, that's what I would worry about. 

[brooklynwx99]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

Regardless, it will be a super nino. The classical super nino forecast is a blowtorch winter with an increased chance at one huge storm (like 2015-2016). That seems like a reasonable expectation for this coming winter. 

a blowtorch winter is absolutely not a reasonable expectation. what is showing that besides the CFS?

if the models are correct with the forcing, near normal is a better bet, unless you’re in far northern NE

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I think the small sample set of Strong El Nino's has gotten a little bit carried away. Strong Nina's are a strong signal for -PNA and +EPO. negative subsurface, that's what I would worry about. 

Strong is fine....I am talking 2.0 and above.

[brooklynwx99]

it’s already been shown so far that the WPAC warm pool is weakening the coupling of the Nino… that is pretty much certain. a don’t think a 2.0C nino would behave like a classic one. why would it? we’re in a new climate 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

it’s already been shown so far that the WPAC warm pool is weakening the coupling of the Nino… that is pretty much certain. a don’t think a 2.0 nino would behave like a classic one. why would it? we’re in a new climate 

It's so tough to go cold bc even if its cold enough to snow, the climate doesn't radiate well any more with all of the CO2 and greenhouse gases,  etc...that brings the departures up. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Strong is fine....I am talking 2.0 and above.

-2.0 -2.5 ONI's have strong correlation to absolutely horrible Pacific pattern. Why wouldn't Super El Nino's be the opposite of that, expand the dataset a bit. 

Also, in the subsurface the eastern-base may be loosing its ground with subsurface now only +3c, vs +7c several weeks ago. The subsurface warm pool has also started to rebuild in the western region. It may end up being a healthy Moderate-Strong Nino 3.4 event. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's so tough to go cold bc even if its cold enough to snow, the climate doesn't radiate well any more with all of the CO2 and greenhouse gases,  etc...that brings the departures up. 

Yeah it was a weird July with AZ-NM, FL, and ME having warmest July on record, 3 separated areas. But the mean trough in an El Nino, the stronger the more so, in the East, is the correlation. 

(Make that happen 14/20 times, and in a sample of say 6, it may coincidentally happen 2/6 times. Small dataset.) 

[brooklynwx99]

20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's so tough to go cold bc even if its cold enough to snow, the climate doesn't radiate well any more with all of the CO2 and greenhouse gases,  etc...that brings the departures up. 

+4 Dec, near normal Jan and -2 Feb with blocking and a potent STJ paired with split flow would absolutely work though

[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's so tough to go cold bc even if its cold enough to snow, the climate doesn't radiate well any more with all of the CO2 and greenhouse gases,  etc...that brings the departures up. 

February 2015 was probably the biggest fluke since 2000. Some of the papers I read pinned the 13-14 and 14-15 mega NE PAC Ridge on the warmer waters near 15N in the WPAC. It’s interesting that the forcing emanating from just 15 degrees further south along the equator in the WPAC creates such a warmer response for us with the frequent MJO 4-6 transits over the last 8 winters.

[George001]

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

a blowtorch winter is absolutely not a reasonable expectation. what is showing that besides the CFS?

if the models are correct with the forcing, near normal is a better bet, unless you’re in far northern NE

I don’t know, the rule of thumb I heard reading seasonal forecasts over the years is Super nino = blowtorch in New England. I don’t buy that we will get both a super nino and a snowy winter regardless of what models show right now. I took the cheese last year when I ignored the modoki nina (unfavorable enso configuration), I’m not doing it again. The nino IS building from east to west just like Paul Roundy said, and the guidance has trended towards a super peak. I just don’t buy that we can have both an east based super nino and a cold, snowy winter in the east. The forcing will move.

[George001]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would need to see overwhelming evidence late in the fall...odds always favor warmer this day and age...doesn't mean it’s going to be a snowless torch bc I don't think it will.

Maybe not a full on ratter like last year, but since it will be a super nino I would think it makes sense to favor above normal temps and below normal snow for all of SNE until proven otherwise. 

[raindancewx]

Here is the Canadian for winter on the Aug 1 2022 run.

There were low heights over the Northern US, and high heights almost all of the US, West included. The actual pattern was east / west for the split, not north / south. The models have some skill on like 11/30 for December - I use them for that. But beyond that, they're worthless for localized / non-global patterns. Even for something like water temperatures, the forecasts early in the thread from Feb-Mar had Nino 1.2 at like +2 right now, and it's more like +3. The only thing SSTs can do is go up or down, but even that's pretty far off at about the same lead time we have currently from winter.

The 2022-23 winter was 25.96C in Nino 3.4 for Dec-Feb. The way I start my forecasts is just to look at years following similar winters that match the weather. Then roll forward. 

The similar winter years that turn to El Ninos are 1957-58, 1963-64, 1968-69, 1972-73, 1986-87, 1997-98, 2006-07, 2009-10. They get to 27.93C in winter on average. It's not exact...but ballpark? The colder it gets, the stronger the correlation I find to year over year trends for US temps. You guys get one cold month in the NE with that. Pretty good winter for the rest of the US though. You do have to warm up / shove the composite NW. The composite below - it's just too old / too far SE with the Atlantic so much colder than now. 

[brooklynwx99]

17 minutes ago, George001 said:

I don’t know, the rule of thumb I heard reading seasonal forecasts over the years is Super nino = blowtorch in New England. I don’t buy that we will get both a super nino and a snowy winter regardless of what models show right now. I took the cheese last year when I ignored the modoki nina (unfavorable enso configuration), I’m not doing it again. The nino IS building from east to west just like Paul Roundy said, and the guidance has trended towards a super peak. I just don’t buy that we can have both an east based super nino and a cold, snowy winter in the east. The forcing will move.

yeah, the models looked like dog shit all summer for last winter. what about this Nino is going to be east based going into the winter? 

models have the forcing far west… it already is now. the SSTs are also going to become basin wide. what about that screams east based? 

[brooklynwx99]

i don’t know. sure, if the WPAC was cooler than normal and the forcing was at a normal spot, but I would be resigned to the torch train

however, those two major factors are wholly different. not sure how we can apply “classic” analogs and ENSO states when things are anything but classic