El Nino 2023-2024

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

This is the 1st time I’ve ever shown the Coral Reef on here you vapid little airhead. The OISST is over +1.3C you fool. It’s almost as funny as how you keep posting the CFS showing region 1+2 plunging into a La Niña over and over for the last 5 months in a row, meanwhile it’s warmed to historic levels. Troll. And I know you have 2 accounts on here, your other alter ego is “Thunderbolt”. You’re not even smart enough to do a good job covering it up

Why so much vitriol? It's only ENSO

[snowman19]

11 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Lol, I was just looking at today's updated SSTs so I could do an update. Yeah, CRW has consistently been the warmest. But even OISST 3.4 has just gone past +1.3 for the first time. That implies that ERSST is likely ~+1.2. OISST 3 is also at its warmest and is approaching +2.0.

Yea, regions 3.4, 3 and 1+2 are all warming. 3.4 and 3 are the warmest they’ve ever been on both OISST and CRW. Region 1+2 is about to warm above +3.5C again, Region 3 is about to go above +2.0C and I would not be surprised if region 3.4 is strong (over +1.5C) by 8/31 on both OISST and CRW, it’s around +1.4C right now. https://x.com/jnmet/status/1691820815447151076?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

[TriPol]

21 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Is this what you are looking for?

That better change come October or NYC area is in for another warm, snowless winter.

[qg_omega]

18 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

again, years like 1982 and 1972 still need to be considered at this point, but it seems like we're leaning towards a more favorable outcome than not. we're almost into September at this point. to deny that would be like seeing a near-unanimous blowtorch and saying "well, they could all be wrong and it could still be quite snowy!"

that person would be called a weenie, and rightfully so. not sure why when it's the other way around, everyone gets all skeptical

I would say if modeling still looks like this by the early October runs, years like 1986, 2002, and 2009 will be serious considerations. for now, they're just more years to think about until everything shakes out through the fall

Warmest winter ever looks very likely

[40/70 Benchmark]

[40/70 Benchmark]

IDK, everyone has an opinion....and I know that the smart money is always on above normal to some degree in this modern era, but this doesn't signal "game over" to me.

It looks like December is kind of eh......then shit hits the fan in January into February, which lines up with what I am coming up with independently.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I don't give a rat's a$$ what the ONI is or which ENSO region is warmest, blah, blah...that is a textbook modoki pattern. That GOA low is flat and displaced well off of the coast with a downstream split flow pumping in moisture beneath a very disturbed polar region. I'm not sure I even detect much of a gradient issue on that chart, so it appears to be an impactful storm factory. You can write a novel about the IOD and wax poetic about whichever other esoteric index fits your agenda, but there is only one way to interpret these seasonal charts if the reader has a modicum of:

A: Objectivity

B: Meteorological intellect

 

Now, will they verify...who knows, but what I can tell you is these solutions make sense since the west PAC is so anomalously warm. We have a quite a seasonal consensus that is getting more difficult to dismiss by the week.

[40/70 Benchmark]

The only reason why we care about the index is because they correlate to a given pattern or weather....but at the end of the day, the ambient environment is what matters and determines how the weather plays out. If that is highly anomalous, then so will the resultant weather pattern, and it renders our correlations moot because of said interaction. The reason an east-based el nino normally produces a mild pattern over the eastern US is because it pins the forcing near S America over the greatest +SST anomalies in the Pacific basin. But if there is a larger body of warm water to the west, than the larger scale resultant weather pattern is going to be akin to what it would be in a modoki situation.

 

[bluewave]

The forcing is still a little further west than we typically see with an El Niño in August. This is closer to the actual warmest SSTs. Still to early to tell exactly where the forcing will line up for the winter.

[brooklynwx99]

2 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Warmest winter ever looks very likely

looking at ENSO… no changes 

[HailMan06]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

IDK, everyone has an opinion....and I know that the smart money is always on above normal to some degree in this modern era, but this doesn't signal "game over" to me.

It looks like December is kind of eh......then shit hits the fan in January into February, which lines up with what I am coming up with independently.

 

If anything this screams record high global temps. The southern US would be an island of BN temps in a sea of warmth.

[40/70 Benchmark]

24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The forcing is still a little further west than we typically see with an El Niño in August. This is closer to the actual warmest SSTs. Still to early to tell exactly where the forcing will line up for the winter.

Its too early to know where anything will lineup for winter until winter, and often even then we don't know. All we can do is make informed judgment based off of the information at hand and gudiance.

[bluewave]

43 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its too early to know where anything will lineup for winter until winter, and often even then we don't know. All we can do is make informed judgment based off of the information at hand and gudiance.

Regardless of the ENSO state, the Northeast has had 8 warmer than normal winters in a row. We have had various flavors of La Niña with a super El Niño and uncoupled El Niño states. Snowfall was outstanding through 17-18. Then we entered a less snowy period since 18-19. What would work for us with and El Niño would be a raging STJ carving out a SE Trough with blocking. That would mute the influence of the SE Ridge. But we saw in December 2015 how we got the unfavorable MJO 4-6 which pumped  the SE Ridge to record levels. We got a great pattern during that January and  February when the SE Ridge was muted and we had a strong block across the pole.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Regardless of the ENSO state, the Northeast has had 8 warmer than normal winters in a row. We have had various flavors of La Niña with a super El Niño and uncoupled El Niño states. Snowfall was outstanding through 17-18. Then we entered a less snowy period since 18-19. What would work for us with and El Niño would be a raging STJ carving out a SE Trough with blocking. That would mute the influence of the SE Ridge. But we saw in December 2015 how we got the unfavorable MJO 4-6 which pumped  the SE Ridge to record levels. We got a great pattern during that January and  February when the SE Ridge was muted and we had a strong block across the pole.

I think the 8 normal winters in a row is more likely attributable to GW than the less snowy run since 18-19....we were due for that. Its largely been because of the Pacific.

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Regardless of the ENSO state, the Northeast has had 8 warmer than normal winters in a row. We have had various flavors of La Niña with a super El Niño and uncoupled El Niño states. Snowfall was outstanding through 17-18. Then we entered a less snowy period since 18-19. What would work for us with and El Niño would be a raging STJ carving out a SE Trough with blocking. That would mute the influence of the SE Ridge. But we saw in December 2015 how we got the unfavorable MJO 4-6 which pumped  the SE Ridge to record levels. We got a great pattern during that January and  February when the SE Ridge was muted and we had a strong block across the pole.

The 5 winters since 17-18 I have averaged 22".  That is like 7" below normal for here.  I've been measuring in the area since 1987. 

[snowman19]

I don't give a rat's a$$ what the ONI is or which ENSO region is warmest, blah, blah...that is a textbook modoki pattern. That GOA low is flat and displaced well off of the coast with a downstream split flow pumping in moisture beneath a very disturbed polar region. I'm not sure I even detect much of a gradient issue on that chart, so it appears to be an impactful storm factory. You can write a novel about the IOD and wax poetic about whichever other esoteric index fits your agenda, but there is only one way to interpret these seasonal charts if the reader has a modicum of:
A: Objectivity
B: Meteorological intellect
 
Now, will they verify...who knows, but what I can tell you is these solutions make sense since the west PAC is so anomalously warm. We have a quite a seasonal consensus that is getting more difficult to dismiss by the week.

One thing is for sure, IF we get to early November and there’s a super Nino or one is imminent and IF there’s canonical El Niño forcing, I’m going torch. I don’t care what the MEI or the Macaroni index or the CANSIPS or any other seasonal model says at that point given those 2 circumstances. Again, IF. I remember all the people who got burned really bad going for a cold winter back in 15-16 with their “west-based super Nino” and “west of 1997” wishcasting (ie. JB, Judah Cohen, etc). 15-16 was one lone snowstorm in a sea of unending warmth. As far as snow, I won’t go there because one rogue, lucky, thread the needle storm can dump in super Ninos

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

The 5 winters since 17-18 I have averaged 22".  That is like 7" below normal for here.  I've been measuring in the area since 1987. 

The 5 year reduction in snowfall on Long Island was more pronounced. The record 5 year period from 13-14 to 17-18 averaged 54.8” at Islip. Big reduction down to only 19.0” since 18-19. The 5 year average snowfall in NYC dropped from 42.3” down to 16.8”.
 

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	Season
Mean	0.9	2.5	7.3	6.9	1.5	T	19.0
2022-2023	0.0	0.4	T	3.0	1.6	0.0	5.0
2021-2022	T	0.3	31.8	3.3	1.6	0.0	37.0
2020-2021	0.0	7.5	1.1	24.9	T	T	33.5
2019-2020	0.1	4.2	2.5	0.0	T	T	6.8
2018-2019	4.3	T	0.9	3.5	4.1	T	12.8

 

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	Season
Mean	0.1	3.5	23.2	13.4	13.5	1.0	54.8
2017-2018	T	6.0	22.0	1.4	31.9	4.6	65.9
2016-2017	T	3.2	14.0	14.7	7.4	T	39.3
2015-2016	0.0	T	24.8	13.2	3.2	0.2	41.4
2014-2015	T	0.4	30.2	13.4	19.7	0.0	63.7
2013-2014	0.3	8.1	25.2	24.5	5.4	0.2	63.7

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	Season
Mean	1.3	2.6	4.2	6.6	2.2	T	16.8
2022-2023	0.0	T	T	2.2	0.1	0.0	2.3
2021-2022	T	0.2	15.3	2.0	0.4	0.0	17.9
2020-2021	0.0	10.5	2.1	26.0	T	0.0	38.6
2019-2020	0.0	2.5	2.3	T	T	T	4.8
2018-2019	6.4	T	1.1	2.6	10.4	0.0	20.5

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	Season
Mean	0.0	4.1	16.7	12.2	8.2	1.1	42.3
2013-2014	T	8.6	19.7	29.0	0.1	T	57.4
2014-2015	0.2	1.0	16.9	13.6	18.6	0.0	50.3
2015-2016	0.0	T	27.9	4.0	0.9	T	32.8
2016-2017	T	3.2	7.9	9.4	9.7	0.0	30.2
2017-2018	T	7.7	11.2	4.9	11.6	5.5	40.9

[brooklynwx99]

17 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

One thing is for sure, IF we get to early November and there’s a super Nino or one is imminent and IF there’s canonical El Niño forcing, I’m going torch. I don’t care what the MEI or the Macaroni index or the CANSIPS or any other seasonal model says at that point given those 2 circumstances. Again, IF. I remember all the people who got burned really bad going for a cold winter back in 15-16 with their “west-based super Nino” and “west of 1997” wishcasting (ie. JB, Judah Cohen, etc). 15-16 was one lone snowstorm in a sea of unending warmth. As far as snow, I won’t go there because one rogue, lucky, thread the needle storm can dump in super Ninos

if the MEI/RONI are much lower than the ONI, I can near guarantee that there won't be canonical Nino forcing near 140W. it would be farther west

the two happening at the same time would basically contradict each other

[brooklynwx99]

also, saying that there can be spells of Modoki forcing later in the winter isn't wishcasting... there are reasons for why that would occur, and every single seasonal model besides the CFS is banking on it. the western lean to the forcing has been happening all summer

sure, they could ALL be wrong, but not acknowledging that is like seeing a -PNA/+AO/+NAO and saying that there's a better than normal chance at a HECS. it's kind of silly to laugh in the face of the mounting evidence. it's not like all guidance is showing those parameters (classical forcing, major E Canada ridging, +NAO) and people are trying to will a more favorable pattern... it legitimately seems more likely than not right now that the back end of winter has the potential for a prolific pattern to develop

[brooklynwx99]

also just keep in mind that I'm really not that biased when it comes to seasonal forecasting. I was down on last winter as a whole from the get-go aside from some possible December blocking (which did occur). pull it up if you'd wish

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

One thing is for sure, IF we get to early November and there’s a super Nino or one is imminent and IF there’s canonical El Niño forcing, I’m going torch. I don’t care what the MEI or the Macaroni index or the CANSIPS or any other seasonal model says at that point given those 2 circumstances. Again, IF. I remember all the people who got burned really bad going for a cold winter back in 15-16 with their “west-based super Nino” and “west of 1997” wishcasting (ie. JB, Judah Cohen, etc). 15-16 was one lone snowstorm in a sea of unending warmth. As far as snow, I won’t go there because one rogue, lucky, thread the needle storm can dump in super Ninos

Well, the MEI and RONI were noth high that year bc the west PAC was cool...like all of the classic intense el nino events. If it ends up like that, then sure.

[brooklynwx99]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, the MEI and RONI were noth high that year bc the west PAC was cool...like all of the classic intense el nino events. If it ends up like that, then sure.

if the queen had balls...

[raindancewx]

Do we really think the models have any idea what will happen in the winter yet? August was supposed to be dry in the SW - a lot of places in the driest deserts are about to get locally 3-10 years of rain in a few days. You have record levels of precipitation available from Tonga and ocean heat globally. 

I really don't get the logic in these threads anymore. You guys all thought last year would be an East based La Nina. That was what you wanted, since it favors a cold East so you didn't look at forcing.

Now this year, everything looks like an East-based El Nino that will eventually collapse toward a basin wide or Modoki look sometime in Feb-May. That's dis-favorable, so you all go to forcing as the crutch.

I don't think it's a lock that this event transitions quickly enough to get severe cold and snow in the East. The looks that resemble Jan-Mar 2010 will probably intermittently occur in late January to early March. Is it going to matter? The entire northern half of the continent is going to be flooded with very warm (50s?) air from late Nov to late January.

We're still paralleling 1982 broadly in three month periods. The Norman, Paul, and especially Olivia East Pacific hurricanes brought unusual heavy rain to Baja / US California. Summer 1982 was very hot centered on the TX/MX border, with most of the rest of the US seasonal to cool. You don't have this shit with the dying hurricanes bringing heavy rain into the SW US in the Modoki El Ninos. Its years like 1982, 1997, 2015 that have it.

[griteater]

It’s just thoughts and ideas being thrown out raindance. No one knows for sure what’s going to happen 

[brooklynwx99]

14 minutes ago, griteater said:

It’s just thoughts and ideas being thrown out raindance. No one knows for sure what’s going to happen 

nah, tropical forcing is a crutch that weenies use to forecast because they're sad that it might torch in December. we should know better than that

[brooklynwx99]

I'm not sure how many times I have said that 1972 and 1982 are legit analogs while ALSO stating that those Modoki years might be worth considering, as the WPAC warm pool both diminishes the coupling of the Nino and shifts forcing west. nobody is sure that this winter will be severe... nobody has even said that besides known Twitter hacks like JB

it's really not that ridiculous of a concept. in fact, I would say that it's more ridiculous than postulating that pretty much every single piece of seasonal guidance is dead wrong and that we're just going to see a classic EP Nino. like, just because of raw ONI without taking anything else into consideration, like solar, QBO, and how the rest of the Pacific is influencing ENSO

nobody really knows what's going to happen... we've never been in this climate before with a WPAC that hot and a developing strong Nino. the declarative statements are ridiculous and this may be a year where thinking outside the box is helpful. just a thought

[brooklynwx99]

the record breaking rain is also from a highly anomalous track from a major tropical system. not sure how a seasonal model is supposed to pick up on something like that

[snowman19]

Do we really think the models have any idea what will happen in the winter yet? August was supposed to be dry in the SW - a lot of places in the driest deserts are about to get locally 3-10 years of rain in a few days. You have record levels of precipitation available from Tonga and ocean heat globally. 
I really don't get the logic in these threads anymore. You guys all thought last year would be an East based La Nina. That was what you wanted, since it favors a cold East so you didn't look at forcing.
Now this year, everything looks like an East-based El Nino that will eventually collapse toward a basin wide or Modoki look sometime in Feb-May. That's dis-favorable, so you all go to forcing as the crutch.
I don't think it's a lock that this event transitions quickly enough to get severe cold and snow in the East. The looks that resemble Jan-Mar 2010 will probably intermittently occur in late January to early March. Is it going to matter? The entire northern half of the continent is going to be flooded with very warm (50s?) air from late Nov to late January.
We're still paralleling 1982 broadly in three month periods. The Norman, Paul, and especially Olivia East Pacific hurricanes brought unusual heavy rain to Baja / US California. Summer 1982 was very hot centered on the TX/MX border, with most of the rest of the US seasonal to cool. You don't have this shit with the dying hurricanes bringing heavy rain into the SW US in the Modoki El Ninos. Its years like 1982, 1997, 2015 that have it.

Those years were all super El Niño years. The new BOM update has the international average of models showing a +2.3C peak for NDJ

[GaWx]

Per today's monthly summary of dynamic models:
 

1. Most recent CANSIPS is confirmed to be at +2.05 ONI peak OND vs +1.61 a month ago.

2. New UKMET now up to +2.00 NDJ.

3. The ONI peak from the average of all dynamic models has risen from +1.81 last month (OND) to +2.06 (NDJ).

4. DJF has risen from +1.50 to +1.91.

5. Based on the new UKMET also being super, I'm raising the chance for super ONI peak from 60% to 70%. It is still far from a lock largely because of OHC at last check only in the +0.80s though I expect it to rise substantially in the coming months.

 

 https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table

[snowman19]

54 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Per today's monthly summary of dynamic models:
 
1. Most recent CANSIPS is confirmed to be at +2.05 ONI peak OND vs +1.61 a month ago.
2. New UKMET now up to +2.00 NDJ.
3. The ONI peak from the average of all dynamic models has risen from +1.81 last month (OND) to +2.06 (NDJ).
4. DJF has risen from +1.50 to +1.91.
5. Based on the new UKMET also being super, I'm raising the chance for super ONI peak from 60% to 70%. It is still far from a lock largely because of OHC at last check only in the +0.80s though I expect it to rise substantially in the coming months.
 
 https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table

Not surprising. The strong WWB is continuing in the eastern and central Pacific right now and you also have this: https://x.com/jnmet/status/1692559270028456417?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw