El Nino 2023-2024

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Here's the area

https://ibb.co/86Fr69R

When the CDC website allowed us to make custom indexes, I made a time series index of that red box area, and found it to be the highest correlation for the 500mb N. Pacific vs all other ENSO measurements (850mb winds, 200mb, sigma levels, OLR, SSTs, etc). It wasn't perfect, but I have seen it hit about 21/27 in the last 3 years, which I posted in past ENSO threads on this board. Definitely missed last Winter, but that was 1 big miss out of like 4 years. It's just something to keep an eye on, you can see for yourself over time. There is a pretty good now-time correlation there, to yes, the PNA. 

 

[so_whats_happening]

1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Here's the area

https://ibb.co/86Fr69R

When the CDC website allowed us to make custom indexes, I made a time series index of that red box area, and found it to be the highest correlation for the 500mb N. Pacific vs all other ENSO measurements (850mb winds, 200mb, sigma levels, OLR, SSTs, etc). It wasn't perfect, but I have seen it hit about 21/27 in the last 3 years, which I posted in past ENSO threads on this board. Definitely missed last Winter, but that was 1 big miss out of like 4 years. It's just something to keep an eye on, you can see for yourself over time. There is a pretty good now-time correlation there, to yes, the PNA. 

Thank you for that will have to watch how it unfolds going forward. Just trying to get a better understanding where you are coming from is all. I feel the other factors may have better significance in helping explain that but it is interesting!

[snowman19]

1. Please post the Tweet.
2. The CANSIPS run I'm looking for would have been released 7/31/23 because they're issued at EOM.
3. I just eyeballed via Tropical Tidbits the 7/31/23 CANSIPS SSTa maps covering Nino 3.4. They are the warmest yet for NDJ by a good margin. The previous warmest 2023 runs were the 4/30 and 5/31 runs, which were both 1.83. Then 6/30 cooled to 1.61. But 7/31 warmed substantially to even warmer than 4/30 and 5/31. Based on my estimate, it does appear that the 7/31 run is slightly warmer than 2.00 for NDJ.
4. So, that means that the latest CANSIPS, JMA, Euro, CFS, Meteo-France and BoM are all warmer than +2.00 for the ONI peak. The only one that isn't per the latest I've been able to find is UKMET, which was at +1.82. But that one is from about a month ago. Thus I expect an update soon.
5. So, with CANSIPS making at least 6 of the 7 latest runs peaking as a super Nino, I'm now going likely (say 60%) for a peak warmer than 2.00. If the new UKMET turns out to also be warmer than 2.00, that would make it 7 of 7 and I'd then probably raise the chance for a super peak further.
6. I'll be following the OHC very closely to see if it starts warming back up substantially. It has started to rewarm but only slowly so far per the latest to the +0.80s. I'm expecting it to rewarm more quickly over the next couple of months. In order to support a super ONI peak, that is pretty much a necessary requirement though it doesn't have to warm all the way to +2.0+:

I’m trying to find the tweet about the CANSIPS I saw from this morning, if I find it I’ll post it for you. Looks like the WWB in the East PAC is gaining strength, it’s going to cause another DWKW and positively feedback/reinforce this already very east-based Nino configuration

[snowman19]

[brooklynwx99]

that should lead to the trickling west of the greatest SST anomalies, leading to a more basin-wide Nino

[snowman19]

that should lead to the trickling west of the greatest SST anomalies, leading to a more basin-wide Nino

Region 3.4 is obviously going to warm a lot (very likely become super) over the next few months but IMO this event stays a classic Eastern Pacific/EP El Niño right into this winter. One of the big factors I think that prevented this one from evolving into a more Modoki or west-based event is and has been the very persistent -PMM. The -PMM has been strong and firmly entrenched since last fall and I believe is one of the main reasons why this event has remained so east-based. Had the PMM flipped positive I think the way this event would have developed and configured itself quite a bit differently

[brooklynwx99]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Region 3.4 is obviously going to warm a lot (very likely become super) over the next few months but IMO this event stays a classic Eastern Pacific/EP El Niño right into this winter. One of the big factors I think that prevented this one from evolving into a more Modoki or west-based event is and has been the very persistent -PMM. The -PMM has been strong and firmly entrenched since last fall and I believe is one of the main reasons why this event has remained so east-based. Had the PMM flipped positive I think the way this event would have developed and configured itself quite a bit differently

I don’t think we’re going to need this to become a classic west based event… basin wide will be fine for most intents and purposes 

i’m expecting a warm start, though 

[snowman19]

I don’t think we’re going to need this to become a classic west based event… basin wide will be fine for most intents and purposes 
i’m expecting a warm start, though 

Oh yea, most likely December is a torch and I think if we had a +PMM this event would have warmed with ease west of regions 1+2 and 3. The PMM is what I believe is inhibiting that, 3.4 is definitely going to warm substantially but I have serious doubts about region 4 warming all that much. The subsurface beneath 4 is already gone

[40/70 Benchmark]

Notice a lot of the seasonal guidance has ridging INVOF Greenland and Alaska...not a ton of cold, but I can work with that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I’m trying to find the tweet about the CANSIPS I saw from this morning, if I find it I’ll post it for you. Looks like the WWB in the East PAC is gaining strength, it’s going to cause another DWKW and positively feedback/reinforce this already very east-based Nino configuration

Is this what you are looking for?

[snowman19]

Notice a lot of the seasonal guidance has ridging INVOF Greenland and Alaska...not a ton of cold, but I can work with that.

I think the question will be how raging is the STJ? Does it just blast PAC maritime air across the entire CONUS and Canada? A La 1997. I can see -AO/-NAO but are the EPO floodgates wide open? I don’t have any confidence in sustained -EPO and +PNA with a super Nino completely juicing the STJ and displacing the Aleutian Low. And no @4070Benchmark, I’m interested in the CANSIPS peak in 3.4

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I think the question will be how raging is the STJ? Does it just blast PAC maritime air across the entire CONUS and Canada? A La 1997. I can see -AO/-NAO but are the EPO floodgates wide open? I don’t have any confidence in sustained -EPO and +PNA with a super Nino completely juicing the STJ and displacing the Aleutian Low

I don't think its going to be frigid. I agree with that, however, it depends where the forcing is in terms of the PNA because if its west of about 160W, then the GOA low is going to be further off of the west coast.

[40/70 Benchmark]

This event isn't going to be comparable to 1997-1998, aside from the robust 1.2 anomalies....seasonal guidance has been petty consistently and emphatically trying to convey that message for months.

You can probably get away with dismissing it for another month...maybe two at most. But I can't imagine doing that into November would be wise.

[40/70 Benchmark]

One thing to ponder is that seasonal guidance is normally deplorable at picking up on high latitude blocking....they are most skilled near the equator and into the tropics, but struggle more with increasing latitude, so the fact that they have been so consistent in signaling a disturbed polar domain will be illuminating to those with an open mind.

This doesn't mean 2009-2010 en route necessarily, but it should at least give pause to the pre-conceived notion of the death-star PV that is a staple of uber ENSO events. There is only one el nino/+IOD analog that I know that has a disturbed PV and that is 1963-1964.

[brooklynwx99]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think its going to be frigid. I agree with that, however, it depends where the forcing is in terms of the PNA because if its west of about 160W, then the GOA low is going to be further off of the west coast.

i mean, looking at 2010, one could envision the "flooding with Pacific air" that would occur... look at how far east that Aleutian low is. basically in the GoA. that obviously did not happen. blocking + split flow FTW!

[brooklynwx99]

also, if we're going to be completely honest with ourselves for a moment, which set of years does the C3S look like? the moderate to low-end strong years with Modoki-esque forcing, or the classical super Ninos?

not even trying to say which scenario is more likely to be correct, but I'm not sure how you can say it doesn't look more like the former than the latter

my assumption is that the farther west forcing is leading to a farther W Aleutian LP, which helps height anomalies out west remain more neutral than negative and increase blocking. blocking will be a key feature this year, and the -QBO and ascending solar activity close to a max leans towards more blocking than less

[brooklynwx99]

again, years like 1982 and 1972 still need to be considered at this point, but it seems like we're leaning towards a more favorable outcome than not. we're almost into September at this point. to deny that would be like seeing a near-unanimous blowtorch and saying "well, they could all be wrong and it could still be quite snowy!"

that person would be called a weenie, and rightfully so. not sure why when it's the other way around, everyone gets all skeptical

I would say if modeling still looks like this by the early October runs, years like 1986, 2002, and 2009 will be serious considerations. for now, they're just more years to think about until everything shakes out through the fall

[40/70 Benchmark]

Its possible we end up with forcing further west even with the east based el Nino...that is what happened in the 1925 analog that Snowman23 and Paul Roundy shook on.

[snowman19]

The atmospheric coupling has already started. Also, looks like the models are getting stronger with the +IOD

https://x.com/jnmet/status/1691820815447151076?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw https://x.com/jnmet/status/1691820815447151076?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

[griteater]

56 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The atmospheric coupling has already started. Also, looks like the models are getting stronger with the +IOD

https://x.com/jnmet/status/1691820815447151076?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

I thought this was a pretty hilarious tweet from Stanfield.  His VP loop runs from early-June to mid-August, and in the big picture, there is almost no change occurring (as opposed to some big movement toward a big El Nino).  The +VP in the E Indian Ocean and over S America just pulses in strength but remains locked in the same location.  Same for the -VP in the W Pac.  The -VP pulsing up in recent days in the E Pac is associated with the tropical cyclones there and not representative of some low frequency East El Nino forcing (could it go in that direction over time, yes, but it's not there right now).  Also, the +VP at the end of the loop in the W Indian Ocean is not representative of a +IOD / El Nino pattern.  A +IOD / El Nino pattern would have uplift (-VP) in the W Indian Ocean.

For some reason, there seems to be a group of twitter posters that are just dying to push this El Nino forward....and/or that like pushing the narrative that this is a 97-98 type redo that is destined to be a winter fail in the East.

 

[snowman19]

39 minutes ago, griteater said:

I thought this was a pretty hilarious tweet from Stanfield.  His VP loop runs from early-June to mid-August, and in the big picture, there is almost no change occurring (as opposed to some big movement toward a big El Nino).  The +VP in the E Indian Ocean and over S America just pulses in strength but remains locked in the same location.  Same for the -VP in the W Pac.  The -VP pulsing up in recent days in the E Pac is associated with the tropical cyclones there and not representative of some low frequency East El Nino forcing (could it go in that direction over time, yes, but it's not there right now).  Also, the +VP at the end of the loop in the W Indian Ocean is not representative of a +IOD / El Nino pattern.  A +IOD / El Nino pattern would have uplift (-VP) in the W Indian Ocean.
For some reason, there seems to be a group of twitter posters that are just dying to push this El Nino forward....and/or that like pushing the narrative that this is a 97-98 type redo that is destined to be a winter fail in the East.
 

Either way, it does appear that we may well be into a strong El Niño by the end of this month. Coral Reef Watch has region 3.4 up to +1.44C and warming 

[roardog]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Either way, it does appear that we may well be into a strong El Niño by the end of this month. Coral Reef Watch has region 3.4 up to +1.44C and warming 

It’s funny how you always show coral reef watch since it’s always the warmest. Unfortunately for you, it’s irrelevant since that’s not the source of the official numbers. 

[GaWx]

10 minutes ago, roardog said:

It’s funny how you always show coral reef watch since it’s always the warmest. Unfortunately for you, it’s irrelevant since that’s not the source of the official numbers. 

 Lol, I was just looking at today's updated SSTs so I could do an update. Yeah, CRW has consistently been the warmest. But even OISST 3.4 has just gone past +1.3 for the first time. That implies that ERSST is likely ~+1.2. OISST 3 is also at its warmest and is approaching +2.0.

[George001]

6 minutes ago, roardog said:

It’s funny how you always show coral reef watch since it’s always the warmest. Unfortunately for you, it’s irrelevant since that’s not the source of the official numbers. 

It’s not irrelevant, yes that’s warmer than other datasets but the weekly data has enso 3.4 at +1.2, that is still very impressive for this time of the year. The nino is on track to become strong by September, and super by November.

[roardog]

5 minutes ago, George001 said:

It’s not irrelevant, yes that’s warmer than other datasets but the weekly data has enso 3.4 at +1.2, that is still very impressive for this time of the year. The nino is on track to become strong by September, and super by November.

It is irrelevant though. When all is said and done, the strength of this Nino will be determined by the ERSST tri monthly peak. Coral Reed watch is no more relevant than the cool CDAS.

[roardog]

1 hour ago, griteater said:

I thought this was a pretty hilarious tweet from Stanfield.  His VP loop runs from early-June to mid-August, and in the big picture, there is almost no change occurring (as opposed to some big movement toward a big El Nino).  The +VP in the E Indian Ocean and over S America just pulses in strength but remains locked in the same location.  Same for the -VP in the W Pac.  The -VP pulsing up in recent days in the E Pac is associated with the tropical cyclones there and not representative of some low frequency East El Nino forcing (could it go in that direction over time, yes, but it's not there right now).  Also, the +VP at the end of the loop in the W Indian Ocean is not representative of a +IOD / El Nino pattern.  A +IOD / El Nino pattern would have uplift (-VP) in the W Indian Ocean.

For some reason, there seems to be a group of twitter posters that are just dying to push this El Nino forward....and/or that like pushing the narrative that this is a 97-98 type redo that is destined to be a winter fail in the East.

 

It’s like last year when twitter was going bonkers about how strong the Nina was going to be last winter. In the end, it peaked at -1.0.

[brooklynwx99]

13 minutes ago, George001 said:

It’s not irrelevant, yes that’s warmer than other datasets but the weekly data has enso 3.4 at +1.2, that is still very impressive for this time of the year. The nino is on track to become strong by September, and super by November.

the forcing is going to be more important than the raw ONI... that seems to have become clear at this point. besides, the WPAC warm pool likely leads to a MEI that's significantly lower anyway. this is already evident

a 2.1C Nino might only act like a 1.7C Nino. there is a big difference. I think we'd need to get to 2016 levels for this to actually act like a super event

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, roardog said:

It’s like last year when twitter was going bonkers about how strong the Nina was going to be last winter. In the end, it peaked at -1.0.

Lol I mentioned that....I was all over that.

At least that was well coupled with the atmosphere and acted stronger..this is the opposite.

[snowman19]

It’s funny how you always show coral reef watch since it’s always the warmest. Unfortunately for you, it’s irrelevant since that’s not the source of the official numbers. 

This is the 1st time I’ve ever shown the Coral Reef on here you vapid little airhead. The OISST is over +1.3C you fool. It’s almost as funny as how you keep posting the CFS showing region 1+2 plunging into a La Niña over and over for the last 5 months in a row, meanwhile it’s warmed to historic levels. Troll. And I know you have 2 accounts on here, your other alter ego is “Thunderbolt”. You’re not even smart enough to do a good job covering it up

[roardog]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

This is the 1st time I’ve ever shown the Coral Reef on here you vapid little airhead. The OISST is over +1.3C you fool. It’s almost as funny as how you keep posting the CFS showing region 1+2 plunging into a La Niña over and over for the last 5 months in a row, meanwhile it’s warmed to historic levels. Troll. And I know you have 2 accounts on here, your other alter ego is “Thunderbolt”. You’re not even smart enough to do a good job covering it up

I’ve been on these boards for 23 years with the same screen name. I’m not thunderbolt. lol