El Nino 2023-2024

[snowman19]

- The stronger August JMA run is following the recent overall model consensus being stronger in 3.4.
- It rose sharply to ~+2.2 for both OND and NDJ compared to a +1.76 peak for OND in last month's run. The run from two months ago was at +1.87.
- The significance of the JMA being this warm is that unlike a number of models it has generally averaged slightly too cool on the order of 0.1 in nearby runs to 0.3 several months out.
- Thus this along with the latest CFS, Euro, Meteo-France, and BoM all being pretty safely in super territory tells me that the chance for a super strong ONI peak has risen sharply (though I still feel that BoM is too warm). I haven't seen the new UKMET nor CANSIPS yet. July UKMET/CANSIPS peaked at +1.82/+1.61.
-Based on this along with recent actual warming and a sharp SOI drop, I feel that the chance for a super ONI peak has risen sharply from slight to 50%. The main things holding me from raising it even more are that raising it to just 50% is quite a rise and the OHC fell sharply from +1.30 in mid June to +0.75 in late July. However, OHC looks to be warming now and I do expect significant warming over the next few months. 
 - Nino 1+2 is also significantly warmer this month on the JMA for Dec with ~+2.4 vs ~+1.7 last month.
- Nino 3, Nino 4, and IOD all also rose significantly.

Yes. Agreed. The evidence is growing by the day that we are going to see a super trimonthly peak, most likely in the NDJ time frame. I’m still thinking the peak is in the +2.1C - +2.5C range

[griteater]

26 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yes. Agreed. The evidence is growing by the day that we are going to see a super trimonthly peak, most likely in the NDJ time frame. I’m still thinking the peak is in the +2.1C - +2.5C range

I’d say this is more opinion than it is “evidence growing by the day.”  I personally don’t believe any model showing +2.0 or higher for multiple tri-monthlies.  Could I be wrong?  Of course, but other than models rising in the August output,  what is the “evidence growing by the day?”

[GaWx]

BoM new run:

-3.4: Sep, Oct slightly cooler with Sep +2.0 vs +2.2 prior run

-3.4: Nov, Dec, Jan about same with NDJ ONI of +2.85 to +2.90 vs +2.80 to +2.85 prior run

-Nino 3, Nino 4, and IOD similar small changes

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, griteater said:

I’d say this is more opinion than it is “evidence growing by the day.”  I personally don’t believe any model showing +2.0 or higher for multiple tri-monthlies.  Could I be wrong?  Of course, but other than models rising in the August output,  what is the “evidence growing by the day?”

The current strong WWB forming in the EPAC, which is going to initiate another DWKW and subsurface warming, the atmosphere finally (solidly) going into Nino “mode”, the projected -SOI round coming up and the start of an uptick in OHC again. The +IOD taking shape. The current OISST has a starting point of +1.25C in 3.4 before the new warming even begins, 1+2 at over +3.4C and 3 at over +1.8C

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 8/12/2023 at 8:57 PM, raindancewx said:

The Australians have the Indian Ocean Dipole going solidly positive. The +IOD (cold by Indonesia, warm in the Indian Ocean), is not forecast to be crazy, but it is positive looking. It tends to peak in Fall too. The El Nino with +IOD years are something like 1963-64, 1972-73, 1982-83, 1994-95, 1997-98, 2006-07, 2015-16, 2019-20. If we're "driving the same road" as those years, you'd expect to see some familiar landmarks. 

Unusual heat wave like Mexico had in June 1982: Check

Very warm waters off Peru like 1997? Check

Record all-time daily and monthly Summer heat in the Southwest like in June 1994? Check

Horrible global heat waves like in 2015? Check

El Nino following a cold Western winter in a La Nina like in 1972? Check

2006 is the worst match of the bunch - weak El Nino, cold Summer SW US, strong monsoon, etc. But 1963 was quite hot in July as well.

This confirms what I have been saying all summer....this next winter will come down to the polar domain. Figure that out, and the winter should be pretty much figured. We aren't going to see the obscenely low heights in the west again. even if the PDO does remain somewhat negative. Only one of those seasons was decent in the east, aside from the January 2016 HECS...and that is 1963-1964. PDO was essentially neutral that year and it maybe similar during the coming winter.

Any guesses at the only one of those seasons that had a -AO/NAO??

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 hours ago, griteater said:

I’d say this is more opinion than it is “evidence growing by the day.”  I personally don’t believe any model showing +2.0 or higher for multiple tri-monthlies.  Could I be wrong?  Of course, but other than models rising in the August output,  what is the “evidence growing by the day?”

Bingo.

Snowman does know his stuff, though....so we'll see. He def. likes to crunch the berries of the snow hounds, but he isn't like some of the trolls in that he brings something to the table.

[40/70 Benchmark]

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just looking back at the big east-based events....I don't see how the forcing gets any further east than about 155-160* this winter, which is like 1972. All of the other intense events were further east by this point, and I just don't see that drastic of a flip, as none of the others have. 1972 is def. the most viable analog of the bunch IMO....it was a descending solar, though. Its also not a terrible QBO match, but it did flip westerly during the winter. This one will not.

Again, 1972-1973 had virtually no blocking to speak of. I don't see us pulling off what we did last year....if we get the blocking, then we should be good.

[griteater]

16 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The current strong WWB forming in the EPAC, which is going to initiate another DWKW and subsurface warming, the atmosphere finally (solidly) going into Nino “mode”, the projected -SOI round coming up and the start of an uptick in OHC again. The +IOD taking shape. The current OISST has a starting point of +1.25C in 3.4 before the new warming even begins, 1+2 at over +3.4C and 3 at over +1.8C

"The current strong WWB forming in the EPAC, which is going to initiate another DWKW and subsurface warming" - this should lead to some E Pac warming, yes, but I wouldn't think it contributes to Nino 3.4 warming

"the atmosphere finally (solidly) going into Nino “mode”" - in a general sense, yes, but similar to what we've been seeing over the past few months IMO

"the projected -SOI round coming up and the start of an uptick in OHC again." - maybe GaWx can give us a forecast on the SOI.  SOI did recently have a 6 day run of -20 or lower, but has since gone positive.  It looks like Low Pressure builds across the Pacific Basin over the next 10 days, but also eventually building west into N Australia / Indonesia, so I'd think -SOI potential has some limits.  The decline in OHC since mid-June has flatlined, yes.  Some increase going forward is possible, yes, but I don't see it going bonkers with it.

"The +IOD taking shape" - a general move toward increasing +IOD over the next couple months maybe, but not seeing a pressure pattern that would favor a big increase over the next couple weeks.

"The current OISST has a starting point of +1.25C in 3.4 before the new warming even begins, 1+2 at over +3.4C and 3 at over +1.8C" - I will give you this one...the Nino regions just want to be warm this year in spite of robust Nino favored processes 

In addition, the -VP over the next 2 weeks is forecast to hang back into the W Pac where it has been for a while and the MJO remains in the COD for now

[snowman19]

"The current strong WWB forming in the EPAC, which is going to initiate another DWKW and subsurface warming" - this should lead to some E Pac warming, yes, but I wouldn't think it contributes to Nino 3.4 warming
"the atmosphere finally (solidly) going into Nino “mode”" - in a general sense, yes, but similar to what we've been seeing over the past few months IMO
"the projected -SOI round coming up and the start of an uptick in OHC again." - maybe GaWx can give us a forecast on the SOI.  SOI did recently have a 6 day run of -20 or lower, but has since gone positive.  It looks like Low Pressure builds across the Pacific Basin over the next 10 days, but also eventually building west into N Australia / Indonesia, so I'd think -SOI potential has some limits.  The decline in OHC since mid-June has flatlined, yes.  Some increase going forward is possible, yes, but I don't see it going bonkers with it.
"The +IOD taking shape" - a general move toward increasing +IOD over the next couple months maybe, but not seeing a pressure pattern that would favor a big increase over the next couple weeks.
"The current OISST has a starting point of +1.25C in 3.4 before the new warming even begins, 1+2 at over +3.4C and 3 at over +1.8C" - I will give you this one...the Nino regions just want to be warm this year in spite of robust Nino favored processes 
In addition, the -VP over the next 2 weeks is forecast to hang back into the W Pac where it has been for a while and the MJO remains in the COD for now

IMO the forcing moves east by December but that’s a wait and see obviously. And if I’m a betting man, the CANSIPS and UKMET show a super El Nino on the next updates like the Euro, JMA, POAMA already do. The CFS is also warming

[snowman19]

This: https://x.com/osuwxguy/status/1691164118231781376?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

[brooklynwx99]

25 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

IMO the forcing moves east by December but that’s a wait and see obviously. And if I’m a betting man, the CANSIPS and UKMET show a super El Nino on the next updates like the Euro, JMA, POAMA already do. The CFS is also warming

the CanSIPS, JMA, ECMWF pretty much have one, but they still look favorable due to where they have the greatest forcing. the raw ONI isn't as useful as it usually is here

call these fantasy model projections all you want, but this is not what a typical super Nino looks like by any stretch. the WPAC warm pool is likely the reason for that... the MEI is likely closer to 1.3-1.7 and the forcing is likely dragged west as discussed ad nauseam by this point

[brooklynwx99]

I mean, for the sake of argument, the French model has the Nino peaking at like 2.5C and still has a very favorable EC pattern. I don't think it's a coincidence that the majority of seasonal models are showing this regardless of if the raw ONI gets above 2C... there is more at play here

 

[roardog]

The CFS has actually been cooling some recently. The latest runs of the bias correction is closer to a 1.5 peak now(the blue colored lines).

[snowman19]

The CFS has actually been cooling some recently. The latest runs of the bias correction is closer to a 1.5 peak now(the blue colored lines).

It’s also been showing region 1+2 going into a La Niña since March

[snowman19]

I mean, for the sake of argument, the French model has the Nino peaking at like 2.5C and still has a very favorable EC pattern. I don't think it's a coincidence that the majority of seasonal models are showing this regardless of if the raw ONI gets above 2C... there is more at play here
 

If the November runs show the exact same forcing then things will be interesting

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If the November runs show the exact same forcing then things will be interesting

I know, I really don't know what to think here. 95% of the time, a Nino that strong is a complete torch, but there are factors that we've never seen before

I'm like the opposite of last year... 65% optimistic and 35% pessimistic. we'll have a better idea once into the fall

[GaWx]

20 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Yes. Agreed. The evidence is growing by the day that we are going to see a super trimonthly peak, most likely in the NDJ time frame. I’m still thinking the peak is in the +2.1C - +2.5C range

 For the first time on the subject of projected ONI peak, I'm pretty close to agreeing with you.  You had always been significantly warmer than me. For awhile you mainly only had BoM and Meteo-France agreeing. Then the Euro and CFS joined in. But the straw that broke the camel's back for me was the JMA warming as much as it did when considering that it had gained a good reputation here and my analysis suggesting a slight cool bias for it. This is all telling me that an ONI peak of +2.1 to +2.5 has about as much chance as any other interval as of now. Should we get a super peak, you would deserve kudos for calling a super peak very early.

 By the way, a super peak would mean an anomaly rise of 3.0+C from the low point of last year. The record largest rise is the 3.1 from 1971-2 to 1972-3.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

10 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Just looking back at the big east-based events....I don't see how the forcing gets any further east than about 155-160* this winter, which is like 1972. All of the other intense events were further east by this point, and I just don't see that drastic of a flip, as none of the others have. 1972 is def. the most viable analog of the bunch IMO....it was a descending solar, though. Its also not a terrible QBO match, but it did flip westerly during the winter. This one will not.

Again, 1972-1973 had virtually no blocking to speak of. I don't see us pulling off what we did last year....if we get the blocking, then we should be good.

72-73, believe it or not, was a La Nina in the subsurface. That is one time of many the subsurface waters correlated with N. Pacific 500mb vs .16, .21, and .25 sigma levels. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the CanSIPS, JMA, ECMWF pretty much have one, but they still look favorable due to where they have the greatest forcing. the raw ONI isn't as useful as it usually is here

call these fantasy model projections all you want, but this is not what a typical super Nino looks like by any stretch. the WPAC warm pool is likely the reason for that... the MEI is likely closer to 1.3-1.7 and the forcing is likely dragged west as discussed ad nauseam by this point

Great consensus. ONI can be 4.2 for all I care, if it looks like that. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

34 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Great consensus. ONI can be 4.2 for all I care, if it looks like that. 

Yeah, if the ONI is 4.2 and the subsurface is negative, you would be more likely to see a -PNA pattern in the N. Pacific. I know it's getting old, but I'm just sayin'

[brooklynwx99]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Great consensus. ONI can be 4.2 for all I care, if it looks like that. 

this is the super ensemble mean… sign me up

[snowman19]

@gawx Just read on twitter that the CANSIPS is showing the Nino going super now, can you confirm? Can’t find anything myself yet

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@gawx Just read on twitter that the CANSIPS is showing the Nino going super now, can you confirm? Can’t find anything myself yet

1. Please post the Tweet.

2. The CANSIPS run I'm looking for would have been released 7/31/23 because they're issued at EOM.

3. I just eyeballed via Tropical Tidbits the 7/31/23 CANSIPS SSTa maps covering Nino 3.4. They are the warmest yet for NDJ by a good margin. The previous warmest 2023 runs were the 4/30 and 5/31 runs, which were both 1.83. Then 6/30 cooled to 1.61. But 7/31 warmed substantially to even warmer than 4/30 and 5/31. Based on my estimate, it does appear that the 7/31 run is slightly warmer than 2.00 for NDJ.

4. So, that means that the latest CANSIPS, JMA, Euro, CFS, Meteo-France and BoM are all warmer than +2.00 for the ONI peak. The only one that isn't per the latest I've been able to find is UKMET, which was at +1.82. But that one is from about a month ago. Thus I expect an update soon.

5. So, with CANSIPS making at least 6 of the 7 latest runs peaking as a super Nino, I'm now going likely (say 60%) for a peak warmer than 2.00. If the new UKMET turns out to also be warmer than 2.00, that would make it 7 of 7 and I'd then probably raise the chance for a super peak further.

6. I'll be following the OHC very closely to see if it starts warming back up substantially. It has started to rewarm but only slowly so far per the latest to the +0.80s. I'm expecting it to rewarm more quickly over the next couple of months. In order to support a super ONI peak, that is pretty much a necessary requirement though it doesn't have to warm all the way to +2.0+:

[GaWx]

Largest ONI rises on record from one fall/winter to next:

 

1972-3: +3.0

1997-8: +2.9

1965-6: +2.8

1951-2: +2.7

1976-7: +2.6

1918-9: +2.6

1925-6: +2.5

2009-10: +2.4

1982-3: +2.4

1911-2: +2.3

1957-8: +2.2

1899-00: +2.2

[Stormchaserchuck1]

The two inverse-beats 72-74 and 97-99 were both central-subsurface cold in 72-73 and 97-98, so you can make a case for the central subsurface also evening-out to not go so extreme.  Central-Subsurface last Winter was positive, so using that method a subsurface Super Nino is needed this Winter to do #1. 

[so_whats_happening]

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The two inverse-beats 72-74 and 97-99 were both central-subsurface cold in 72-73 and 97-98, so you can make a case for the central subsurface also evening-out to not go so extreme.  Central-Subsurface last Winter was positive, so using that method a subsurface Super Nino is needed this Winter to do #1. 

Unfortunately those two timeframes only showed significant negative subsurface anoms come JFM coming in from nino 4 and then eventually east by march. While i do get your thought process from this there is intrinsically some lag to that type of setup i feel. 

Definitely an interesting concept though from you and raindance about subsurface and OHC, respectively. Will have to keep a watch and see if things like this hold up going forward.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

20 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Unfortunately those two timeframes only showed significant negative subsurface anoms come JFM coming in from nino 4 and then eventually east by march. While i do get your thought process from this there is intrinsically some lag to that type of setup i feel. 

Definitely an interesting concept though from you and raindance about subsurface and OHC, respectively. Will have to keep a watch and see if things like this hold up going forward.

This looks more -PNA to me than +PNA

https://ibb.co/hXjDXBb 

Both were negative subsurface

[so_whats_happening]

19 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

This looks more -PNA to me than +PNA

https://ibb.co/hXjDXBb 

Both were negative subsurface

So you are correlating from western edge of 3.4 near 4 as whether or not we get a +/- PNA?

Unfortunately 97/98 is a little out of order when it loaded but would argue 97/98 had a much better push of negative subsurface anoms.

[so_whats_happening]

Just now, so_whats_happening said:

So you are correlating from western edge of 3.4 near 4 as whether or not we get a +/- PNA?

Unfortunately 97/98 is a little out of order when it loaded but would argue 97/98 had a much better push of negative subsurface anoms.

Using last year as an example we had rather positive readings in the same location but a firmly -PNA, PDO definitely played a role in enhancing that.