El Nino 2023-2024

[roardog]

The SOI popped back positive today. How is that looking for the next week or so? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

29 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Nice write up and yes, as Paul Roundy has been stating, this El Niño is developing like the east-based/EP Nino’s prior to 1980. We are not accustomed to seeing a Nino develop in this way over the last 43+ years. I know some people aren’t going to want to hear it but it is extremely unlikely that the forcing is still in the same spot it’s in right now come December. The seasonal models are seeing the current forcing and just assuming that it’s going to stay right there for the next 7 months. The Monsoon ending is going to shift the forcing east as is the +IOD that’s currently taking shape and will be strengthening over the next few months. As far as the eastern regions (3 and 1+2), that warming is just reinforcing itself at this point through positive (Bjerknes) feedback. IOD:

Can you point out which pre-1980 intense east based el nino had forcing near the dateline into August? Maybe 1925?

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Can you point out which pre-1980 intense east based el nino had forcing near the dateline into August? Maybe 1925?

I'm honestly not trying to be sarcastic...honest question. Even if there isn't one, that doesn't mean it can't shift...like last year did to a modoki la nina right as winter began.

[csnavywx]

12 hours ago, griteater said:

Yeah, this isn't going to be a C Pac Nino from a SST standpoint.  The 'hope' for East Coast winter interests is that Nino3.4 rises to Strong instead of Super, and that the C Pac westerly wind bursts remain at bay for the most part, keeping the Walker Cell uplift closer to the Dateline as opposed to it moving forcefully into the E Pac along with heavy SST warming moving into Nino3.4 and Nino3 via a Super Nino.

If we just look at where we are over the last 2 months (Jun 1 to Aug 9), the VP structure this year is more akin to 2009 than it is to 2015.  Does that stay the same?  Don't know, but my guess is that it heavily depends on the items mentioned in paragraph 1.

Note: You could even make the case that this year is west of 2009 when you look at the +VP subsidence regions being farther west in the Indian Ocean and Atlantic/South America. 

This makes sense so far -- as the warm pool there has not progressed nearly as far as '15 had at this point. It is on the move (finally), as per OSCAR and GODAS (Jul -> Aug). Though I suspect it will be in fits and starts since we're still getting periodic trade surges:

 

Compare to Jul: 

 

And GODAS:

[snowman19]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Can you point out which pre-1980 intense east based el nino had forcing near the dateline into August? Maybe 1925?

I’m speaking of the Eastern Pacific El Niño evolution itself not the atmospheric forcing. The current forcing is almost certain to move east, as has been stated, once the ongoing Monsoon ends and the +IOD forms and strengthens. The current forcing is extremely likely not to just stagnant and be in the same place come December and thereafter given the changes about to take place

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I’m speaking of the Eastern Pacific El Niño evolution itself not the atmospheric forcing. The current forcing is almost certain to move east, as has been stated, once the ongoing Monsoon ends and the +IOD forms and strengthens. The current forcing is extremely likely not to just stagnant and be in the same place come December and thereafter given the changes about to take place

I guess the question is how much...is it around 170W, like 1925, or 140W, like 1991.

[40/70 Benchmark]

How come the monsoon ending in conjunction with the intensification of the +IOD allowed for this and why are we so sure that it can not this season?

[snowman19]

How come the monsoon ending in conjunction with the intensification of the +IOD allowed for this and why are we so sure that it can not this season?

Nothing is impossible, all we can do is watch and wait. If I’m a betting man, the forcing moves east by December, given the factors I mentioned, plus the possible super El Niño and the record, extreme warmth in regions 1+2 and 3 but I guess stranger things have happened. There are no guarantees in weather….

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Nothing is impossible, all we can do is watch and wait. If I’m a betting man, the forcing moves east by December, given the factors I mentioned, plus the possible super El Niño and the record, extreme warmth in regions 1+2 and 3 but I guess stranger things have happened. There are no guarantees in weather….

Well, I don't think it could go any further west than it has been in an el nino, modoki or not, so I agree. And nor would I want it to because it would start to resemble la nina maratime forcing. 

[snowman19]

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

Notice he never touched my question...

[snowman19]

This is going to trigger a new period of ENSO warming:

[so_whats_happening]

I dont know maybe it is just me but i feel we have been hesring on repeat the +IOD is coming and will create a positive feedback loop since like april/may. The nino has been able to get where it is without such an occurrence so im not sure it matters all too much if the IOD goes positive or stays neutral.

Anyway there seems to be a little reversal happening again in 1+2 and eastern 3 but im not sure just how much warming will come from this. The thermocline has been rising in the east pac, the subsurface anomalies continue to show signs of weakening, and the progression of ssts looks to be going west (although slowly still).

Lets see what happens in the next 2 weeks with this EPAC reversal coming up but with OHC decreasing to less than 1C right now is there much in the pipeline if we dont get more subsurface warmth being generated?

[griteater]

1 hour ago, so_whats_happening said:

I dont know maybe it is just me but i feel we have been hesring on repeat the +IOD is coming and will create a positive feedback loop since like april/may. The nino has been able to get where it is without such an occurrence so im not sure it matters all too much if the IOD goes positive or stays neutral.

Anyway there seems to be a little reversal happening again in 1+2 and eastern 3 but im not sure just how much warming will come from this. The thermocline has been rising in the east pac, the subsurface anomalies continue to show signs of weakening, and the progression of ssts looks to be going west (although slowly still).

Lets see what happens in the next 2 weeks with this EPAC reversal coming up but with OHC decreasing to less than 1C right now is there much in the pipeline if we dont get more subsurface warmth being generated?

The ship has probably already sailed on us going into a big +IOD like 1994, 1997, or 2019 (all non-winter winters in the east).  I suppose a moderate +IOD is still possible which could aid El Niño development with improved subsidence in Indonesia and associated feedbacks.  The MJO is the bigger one to me that there was a lot of talk on it becoming active, and it has just been dead for a long time now, which has contributed to us not seeing these waves of westerly wind bursts working from the W Pac into the Dateline, and the subsurface warmth has suffered because of it 

[so_whats_happening]

18 minutes ago, griteater said:

The ship has probably already sailed on us going into a big +IOD like 1994, 1997, or 2019 (all non-winter winters in the east).  I suppose a moderate +IOD is still possible which could aid El Niño development with improved subsidence in Indonesia and associated feedbacks.  The MJO is the bigger one to me that there was a lot of talk on it becoming active, and it has just been dead for a long time now, which has contributed to us not seeing these waves of westerly wind bursts working from the W Pac into the Dateline, and the subsurface warmth has suffered because of it 

Yea i agree i guess a .4 or so plus IOD is something of note. The mjo definitely is key here and with the anomalies in the maritime region going near normal finally it is starting to look like a more classic nino setup overall. Surprisingly with the latest weakening in 3/3.4 region we saw more warming occur in 4 than any other region. 1+2 had a random spike but i dont know i dont see it going much above 2.0C in 3.4, if it does it probably touches it and then falls back a bit but we will see what happens in the next month as coupling may be on the way.

[40/70 Benchmark]

43 minutes ago, griteater said:

The ship has probably already sailed on us going into a big +IOD like 1994, 1997, or 2019 (all non-winter winters in the east).  I suppose a moderate +IOD is still possible which could aid El Niño development with improved subsidence in Indonesia and associated feedbacks.  The MJO is the bigger one to me that there was a lot of talk on it becoming active, and it has just been dead for a long time now, which has contributed to us not seeing these waves of westerly wind bursts working from the W Pac into the Dateline, and the subsurface warmth has suffered because of it 

This is a different way of concluding what I just did in my blog...the real craptacular el nino seasons do not look like great analogs right now.  That doesn't necessarily mean this season will be great, but it is what it is.

[SnoSki14]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Notice he never touched my question...

Let me save you some time.

According to snowman it'll be a strong to super east based Nino like 97/98 that'll cause a snowless, torch winter in the east. 

And to save you some more time. The following winter will be another horrible Nina with a snowless, torch winter.

And so on and so on

Dude is extremely predictable

Basically never expect to see cold/snow again according to him 

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Let me save you some time.

According to snowman it'll be a strong to super east based Nino like 97/98 that'll cause a snowless, torch winter in the east. 

And to save you some more time. The following winter will be another horrible Nina with a snowless, torch winter.

And so on and so on

Dude is extremely predictable

Basically never expect to see cold/snow again according to him 

I feel like this year will be good, but we are going to depend on the Pacific for few years beginning within another year or two bc there will be a lot of +AO/NAO.

[raindancewx]

The Australians have the Indian Ocean Dipole going solidly positive. The +IOD (cold by Indonesia, warm in the Indian Ocean), is not forecast to be crazy, but it is positive looking. It tends to peak in Fall too. The El Nino with +IOD years are something like 1963-64, 1972-73, 1982-83, 1994-95, 1997-98, 2006-07, 2015-16, 2019-20. If we're "driving the same road" as those years, you'd expect to see some familiar landmarks. 

Unusual heat wave like Mexico had in June 1982: Check

Very warm waters off Peru like 1997? Check

Record all-time daily and monthly Summer heat in the Southwest like in June 1994? Check

Horrible global heat waves like in 2015? Check

El Nino following a cold Western winter in a La Nina like in 1972? Check

2006 is the worst match of the bunch - weak El Nino, cold Summer SW US, strong monsoon, etc. But 1963 was quite hot in July as well.

[raindancewx]

PDO was still near record negative readings for July too: -1.86

https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.htmlTable?time,PDO

Some of the +IOD matches are also good QBO matches (1972, 2019) by the way, and a couple have negative / neutral PDO (1972, 2019 setups for the cold season.

 

[griteater]

TAO subsurface loop in 10-day increments over the past month

[so_whats_happening]

16 minutes ago, griteater said:

TAO subsurface loop in 10-day increments over the past month

Yea it is not to say we wont get another punch of subsurface warmth. It honestly looks to be reloading in the WPAC again but would think it would have a further west impact than what we have seen thus far. Nino 4 continues to be the one seeing temps rising while the others seem rather stagnant if not cooling still. I wanna wait and see how the slight reversal in the far EPAC reacts but we really do look to be going into a more classic nino mode as of now.

[GaWx]

41 minutes ago, griteater said:

TAO subsurface loop in 10-day increments over the past month

It does look like the OHC plunge has ended and is starting to rebound per the following, which is consistent with your animation's warming west of 140W. I'm expecting mainly net warming the next few months:

[snowman19]

39 minutes ago, GaWx said:

It does look like the OHC plunge has ended and is starting to rebound per the following, which is consistent with your animation's warming west of 140W. I'm expecting mainly net warming the next few months:

The OHC is coming back up. This MJO constructive interference should lead to a WWB/DWKW which will warm the subsurface and surface further. Also, looks like another -SOI round with substantial central PAC trade wind weakening is coming up. The models show the atmosphere clearly going into El Niño mode and strengthening over the next month. https://x.com/yellow_evan/status/1690429944969699329?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw https://x.com/yellow_evan/status/1690429944969699329?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

[snowman19]

[roardog]

35 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

The Nino strength isn’t going as planned if we now have to use the GFS fantasy canes as a measurement of Nino strength. lol

[snowman19]

The Nino strength isn’t going as planned if we now have to use the GFS fantasy canes as a measurement of Nino strength. lol

Right…..That’s why there’s this huge WWB right now #Clueless https://x.com/tylerjstanfield/status/1690786693232603136?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

[raindancewx]

I don't find much about the US patterns this Summer to be too inconsistent with a developing El Nino. Warmth in Nino 3.4 above a certain point weakens and/or delays monsoon progression and is a weak hot signal for TX/NM. We're the most sensitive/responsive place in the US to ENSO in a statistical sense.

We're heading into an El Nino with two dominant patterns. When the subsurface cools, the Midwest will be a bit cool, with heat elsewhere, particularly in the SW US and New England. June and August, with subsurface warming/without subsurface cooling, are colder West/East to about the Continental Divide and Mississippi River, with TX and the Plains warmer. As the cold air seasonally pushes down against the subtropical ridges, that hot area should retreat to the Mexican plateau and the US will be mostly cold.

How often is the subsurface going to warm in the winter though? That's the question. Probably not more than one big push. The subsurface warming has been the dominant pattern since last Fall, and has corresponded with persistently intense periods of cold and snow in the West, notably November 2022 and March 2023. We've had over half a year of warming of the subsurface already since last Fall. It can't continue for much longer. I'm very much in the warm camp for the winter. But you should have pretty severe cold pushes when the subsurface does warm. That's the only reason I've been toying with including 2009-10 at low weight.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I measured the trend once, and found no correlation. + or - subsurface raw is the better indicator. 

[GaWx]

On 8/10/2023 at 11:53 AM, snowman19 said:

Here’s the new JMA, showing a super El Niño

- The stronger August JMA run is following the recent overall model consensus being stronger in 3.4.

- It rose sharply to ~+2.2 for both OND and NDJ compared to a +1.76 peak for OND in last month's run. The run from two months ago was at +1.87.

- The significance of the JMA being this warm is that unlike a number of models it has generally averaged slightly too cool on the order of 0.1 in nearby runs to 0.3 several months out.

- Thus this along with the latest CFS, Euro, Meteo-France, and BoM all being pretty safely in super territory tells me that the chance for a super strong ONI peak has risen sharply (though I still feel that BoM is too warm). I haven't seen the new UKMET nor CANSIPS yet. July UKMET/CANSIPS peaked at +1.82/+1.61.

-Based on this along with recent actual warming and a sharp SOI drop, I feel that the chance for a super ONI peak has risen sharply from slight to 50%. The main things holding me from raising it even more are that raising it to just 50% is quite a rise and the OHC fell sharply from +1.30 in mid June to +0.75 in late July. However, OHC looks to be warming now and I do expect significant warming over the next few months. 

 - Nino 1+2 is also significantly warmer this month on the JMA for Dec with ~+2.4 vs ~+1.7 last month.

- Nino 3, Nino 4, and IOD all also rose significantly.