El Nino 2023-2024

[Typhoon Tip]

Come hell or high snow of a winter across N/A … the ambient hemisphere will be velocity saturated at mid latitudes. 
bank it-

[snowman19]

If the el nino ends up that intense, and the west Pacific cools, which would move the mean seasonal vp east of current guidance, then it would be a blow torch.
Let's try this....if the ONI peaks around 2.0 and the forcing sets up near the dateline because the anomalous west PAC warmth remains even more extreme and expansive than that within the ENSO region, how do you feel the winter would play out, snowman?

In your hypothetical scenario yes, it would make things interesting possibly even with a super El Niño in place. However, I’m not so sure the WPAC will look exactly like it does now by December. Once the +IOD forcing really gets going I think the whole complexion changes out that way. All we can do is watch. That said, if we do in fact see a trimonthly ONI of +2.3C for NDJ, I still would not go with a cold winter, gotta agree with Griteater there

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

In your hypothetical scenario yes, it would make things interesting possibly even with a super El Niño in place. However, I’m not so sure the WPAC will look exactly like it does now by December. Once the +IOD forcing really gets going I think the whole complexion changes out that way. All we can do is watch. That said, if we do in fact see a trimonthly ONI of +2.3C for NDJ, I still would not go with a cold winter, gotta agree with Griteater there

Well, yea...I said that, too. No one cares about that, though....just want the snow.

[griteater]

19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, yea...I said that, too. No one cares about that, though....just want the snow.

I understand the spirit of your comment about snow, but even in the Northeast, sure, you don't want to see a 1977 Arctic plunge pattern, but I'd think you'd want a pattern that produces at least cool anomalies

For fun (ha), here are the temperature anomalies for the Top 10 snowiest winters in Worcester

 

[brooklynwx99]

54 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

In your hypothetical scenario yes, it would make things interesting possibly even with a super El Niño in place. However, I’m not so sure the WPAC will look exactly like it does now by December. Once the +IOD forcing really gets going I think the whole complexion changes out that way. All we can do is watch. That said, if we do in fact see a trimonthly ONI of +2.3C for NDJ, I still would not go with a cold winter, gotta agree with Griteater there

near normal is totally fine if there's blocking and a potent STJ if you're looking for big snow. doesn't have to be all that cold. Feb 2010 and Feb 1983 are good examples of that

[snowman19]

near normal is totally fine if there's blocking and a potent STJ if you're looking for big snow. doesn't have to be all that cold. Feb 2010 and Feb 1983 are good examples of that

It goes without saying that there is a real heightened chance of a KU snow bomb in a super El Niño with the raging STJ. You just have to get lucky and time/thread the needle with an arctic outbreak and a phase (i.e., 83, 16). The pattern back in 1/16 was blatantly primed, you had the unmodified arctic outbreak with a banana high in SE Canada, -NAO/-AO, 50-50 vortex and it timed perfectly with the temporary -EPO (++PDO driven), -WPO and +PNA ridge pops out west. A snow bomb in an overall sea of warmth from the ++ENSO

[40/70 Benchmark]

56 minutes ago, griteater said:

I understand the spirit of your comment about snow, but even in the Northeast, sure, you don't want to see a 1977 Arctic plunge pattern, but I'd think you'd want a pattern that produces at least cool anomalies

For fun (ha), here are the temperature anomalies for the Top 10 snowiest winters in Worcester

 

Those winters are all near or over 100", so sure...I'll bet against a top 10 winter....robust el nino isn't a high-end snowfall ENSO phase for SNE, anyway...2002-2003 is the only one on there. It's better for mid alt. Strong STJ means alot of LBSW deals.

[George001]

43 minutes ago, griteater said:

I understand the spirit of your comment about snow, but even in the Northeast, sure, you don't want to see a 1977 Arctic plunge pattern, but I'd think you'd want a pattern that produces at least cool anomalies

For fun (ha), here are the temperature anomalies for the Top 10 snowiest winters in Worcester

 

Yeah in SNE we have more room for error than the mid Atlantic, but we still need temps to cooperate at least somewhat (especially if looking for a big winter). Last years temp profile (>+5 AN) is a death sentence even in SNE. +1-2 with lots of precip can work though. That’s why I’m interested to see how this nino develops, a peak of +1.6 vs +2.3 could easily be the difference between an average to decent winter and a ratter for us. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, George001 said:

Yeah in SNE we have more room for error than the mid Atlantic, but we still need temps to cooperate at least somewhat (especially if looking for a big winter). Last years temp profile (>+5 AN) is a death sentence even in SNE. +1-2 with lots of precip can work though. That’s why I’m interested to see how this nino develops, a peak of +1.6 vs +2.3 could easily be the difference between an average to decent winter and a ratter for us. 

Agree.

[griteater]

As an oncoming El Nino, in Nino 3.4, 2023 is tracking as a warmer version of 2002/2009 and a cooler version of 1997/2015

 

 

1991 was odd.  A big cool down in late summer before a big warm up in fall

[snowman19]

Agree.

I think one of the big factors back in the 15-16 winter was the insanely positive PDO, the GOA and western North American coast were on fire, IMO that lead to the temporary bouts of strong -EPO blocking we saw at times during that winter, which caused the cross-polar flow and arctic outbreaks

[brooklynwx99]

in terms of MEI, the new reading for JJ came out at +0.3

1997 had a MEI for those months of +2.1, 1982 was +1.9, and +1.7

2002 was +0.4, 1986 was +0.8, and 2010 was +0.4

this year literally has a lower MEI than those moderate years and isn't in the same galaxy as the super years listed above. hence my skepticism of a super Nino blowtorch this year. this doesn't take the location of the forcing into account either

[bkviking]

Eric Webb on the “beastly east pacific Nino” - have to follow the whole thread. 

 

 

 

[brooklynwx99]

BEASTLY EP NINO with a MEI of +0.3

give me a break

[snowman19]

[snowman19]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

[/url]

 

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1690114388198658052?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

 

 

[brooklynwx99]

the thing is that the raw SST anomalies have almost zero impact at this range

the forcing has remained far west, and this is going to become basin wide anyway. not sure what the EP circle jerk is about right now. it’s kinda pointless

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I think one of the big factors back in the 15-16 winter was the insanely positive PDO, the GOA and western North American coast were on fire, IMO that lead to the temporary bouts of strong -EPO blocking we saw at times during that winter, which caused the cross-polar flow and arctic outbreaks

While the extra tropical Pacific may be more hostile, I think the ENSO will be less hostile to winter enthusiasts than those seasons. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the thing is that the raw SST anomalies have almost zero impact at this range

the forcing has remained far west, and this is going to become basin wide anyway. not sure what the EP circle jerk is about right now. it’s kinda pointless

Webb is acts like JB...just opposite end of the spectrum.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I mean, imagine the comments if JB was claiming a classic modoki with an MEI of 2.1 and vp pinned over Peru...

[raindancewx]

The new MEI looks at 30N-30S from 70W to 100E. So you're including the -PDO and IOD in the calculation essentially as anti +ENSO signals.

The older MEI btw is a near identical match to years like 2003, 1953, and 1979 that had notorious heat waves in developing El Nino / near-El Nino years.

The MEI is like anything else, it tells you recent conditions. So Jun-Jul 2012 was apparently a stronger El Nino than Jun-July 2009. Another year with major heat waves anyway. 1986-87 is a simple example of an MEI in Jun-July that went from +0.4 but eventually got to +2.1 in 1987.

If you look at actual maps, we've had the subtropical and northern stream jet over NM simultaneously in August for a few moments. That's not exactly a great indicator that the processes that might juice up the subtropical jet...like an El Nino are weak. This was a discussion from the local NWS a few days ago. I don't really recall seeing the subtropical jet over me outside of Oct-May, which is the cold season here.

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 144 AM MDT Mon Aug 7 2023

It`s not often the polar and subtropical jet streams phase with one
another so close to northern NM during early August. At any rate,
while low-level Gulf moisture seeps its way westward into the middle
and lower RGV behind a backdoor front, a westerly wind speed max in
the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere, will help trigger
scattered showers and thunderstorms for all but the northern quarter
of the state this afternoon into early evening. These two
meteorological features will combine with daytime heating to
generate mainly scattered late morning to afternoon showers and
thunderstorms over much of central NM

[csnavywx]

So far, this has been a *very different* evolution than we're used to for a Nino. It's done just fine surviving off of weak OKWs breaking near SA instead of further up the coast and tapping the NE Pac warm pool instead. Once the monsoon ends, we'll probably see the forcing being cited migrate east. The warm pool has already migrated to just west of the dateline and some significant TC-induced cooling has occurred near/north of the Maritime continent. I get the idea that we need strong WWBs and that's the classical analog take, but this one seems hellbent on using a route we haven't seen since the pre-satellite era.

If I were a snowbird at this point, I'd be rooting for a HHTH forcing-induced blocking over western NA and to help nudge the BoA low a bit further west of its standard Nino position or just amp the western ridge. Then maybe the supercharged STJ doesn't completely screw over the synoptic setup by flooding the CONUS with Pacific air.

 

Def seems like an easier lift than trying to bank on it heading to a more C-Pac based nino.

[griteater]

2 hours ago, csnavywx said:

Def seems like an easier lift than trying to bank on it heading to a more C-Pac based nino.

Yeah, this isn't going to be a C Pac Nino from a SST standpoint.  The 'hope' for East Coast winter interests is that Nino3.4 rises to Strong instead of Super, and that the C Pac westerly wind bursts remain at bay for the most part, keeping the Walker Cell uplift closer to the Dateline as opposed to it moving forcefully into the E Pac along with heavy SST warming moving into Nino3.4 and Nino3 via a Super Nino.

If we just look at where we are over the last 2 months (Jun 1 to Aug 9), the VP structure this year is more akin to 2009 than it is to 2015.  Does that stay the same?  Don't know, but my guess is that it heavily depends on the items mentioned in paragraph 1.

Note: You could even make the case that this year is west of 2009 when you look at the +VP subsidence regions being farther west in the Indian Ocean and Atlantic/South America. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/08/preliminary-analysis-of-extratropical.html?m=1

 

[griteater]

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/08/preliminary-analysis-of-extratropical.html?m=1

Good effort and nice write-up. Enjoyed it. Everyone’s not going to agree with all of it, but that’s fine and part of the deal.

Your write-up reminded me of a quote that I liked from DT some years ago…

“It is our view that doing the science and going through the steps is as important as coming up with the right answer.  A lot of people don't understand this, as the emphasis in our culture is on getting the right answer.  For example, if I forecast the winter pattern based upon the number of socks in my dresser drawer and the forecast turns out to be correct, it doesn't mean my technique was scientifically based and/or it can be used in the future.”

 Dave Tolleris (wxrisk.com) – November 2016

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, griteater said:

Good effort and nice write-up. Enjoyed it. Everyone’s not going to agree with all of it, but that’s fine and part of the deal.

Your write-up reminded me of a quote that I liked from DT some years ago…

“It is our view that doing the science and going through the steps is as important as coming up with the right answer.  A lot of people don't understand this, as the emphasis in our culture is on getting the right answer.  For example, if I forecast the winter pattern based upon the number of socks in my dresser drawer and the forecast turns out to be correct, it doesn't mean my technique was scientifically based and/or it can be used in the future.”

 Dave Tolleris (wxrisk.com) – November 2016

 

I get that the ascending solar neg NAO correlation was insignificant, but it was technically slightly negative and given the fact that the easterly QBO consideration is significant, I don't think its unreasonable to give at least a slightly disturbed PV the nod in the event that dateline forcing continues. It looked to me that the ascending/neg NAO relationship was pretty stable given a basin wide el nino...of course, if el nino goes nuclear and forcing shifts east, then it's all moot, anyway.

And I am open to hearing why Tonga will have a greater impact in enhancing the PV during an easterly QBO, basin wide el nino than it did during a W QBO modoki la nina last season.

[griteater]

19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I get that the ascending solar neg NAO correlation was insignificant, but it was technically slightly negative and given the fact that the easterly QBO consideration is significant, I don't think its unreasonable to give at least a slightly disturbed PV the nod in the event that dateline forcing continues. It looked to me that the ascending/neg NAO relationship was pretty stable given a basin wide el nino...of course, if el nino goes nuclear and forcing shifts east, then it's all moot, anyway.

And I am open to hearing why Tonga will have a greater impact in enhancing the PV during an easterly QBO, basin wide el nino than it did during a W QBO modoki la nina last season.

Oh I didn’t mean to imply that I disagreed with it…was just saying that in general 

[40/70 Benchmark]

24 minutes ago, griteater said:

Oh I didn’t mean to imply that I disagreed with it…was just saying that in general 

Yea, more speaking to you, rather than at.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I can relate to what DT said....It seemed like I nailed 2014-2015 because I went for a huge winter, but I actually focused the forecast on a neg AO/NAO, which was wrong. Last season was the opposite. I feel that forecast was alot better than it superficially appeared. 

[snowman19]

14 hours ago, csnavywx said:

So far, this has been a *very different* evolution than we're used to for a Nino. It's done just fine surviving off of weak OKWs breaking near SA instead of further up the coast and tapping the NE Pac warm pool instead. Once the monsoon ends, we'll probably see the forcing being cited migrate east. The warm pool has already migrated to just west of the dateline and some significant TC-induced cooling has occurred near/north of the Maritime continent. I get the idea that we need strong WWBs and that's the classical analog take, but this one seems hellbent on using a route we haven't seen since the pre-satellite era.
If I were a snowbird at this point, I'd be rooting for a HHTH forcing-induced blocking over western NA and to help nudge the BoA low a bit further west of its standard Nino position or just amp the western ridge. Then maybe the supercharged STJ doesn't completely screw over the synoptic setup by flooding the CONUS with Pacific air.

 

Def seems like an easier lift than trying to bank on it heading to a more C-Pac based nino.

Nice write up and yes, as Paul Roundy has been stating, this El Niño is developing like the east-based/EP Nino’s prior to 1980. We are not accustomed to seeing a Nino develop in this way over the last 43+ years. I know some people aren’t going to want to hear it but it is extremely unlikely that the forcing is still in the same spot it’s in right now come December. The seasonal models are seeing the current forcing and just assuming that it’s going to stay right there for the next 7 months. The Monsoon ending is going to shift the forcing east as is the +IOD that’s currently taking shape and will be strengthening over the next few months. As far as the eastern regions (3 and 1+2), that warming is just reinforcing itself at this point through positive (Bjerknes) feedback. IOD: