El Nino 2023-2024

[snowman19]

ENSO is indicative of a classic, east based super el nino....but the globe isn't.....nor is the west PAC. This is conveyed by both the RONI and MEI.

IMO, the main driver this winter will be the (possible) super El Niño and the associated forcing with it. The +IOD is also going to play into that. Not to say things like solar/PDO/The Hunga Tonga eruption/QBO/AMO aren’t going to have some say too but I think the main show is going to be ENSO. I don’t buy into the October Siberian snowcover/SAI and arctic sea ice craze with Judah Cohen anymore after the utter debacle of the last 15+ years

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

IMO, the main driver this winter will be the (possible) super El Niño and the associated forcing with it. The +IOD is also going to play into that. Not to say things like solar/PDO/The Hunga Tonga eruption/QBO/AMO aren’t going to have some say too but I think the main show is going to be ENSO. I don’t buy into the October Siberian snowcover/SAI and arctic sea ice craze with Judah Cohen anymore after the utter debacle of the last 15+ years

Well, that is the thing...the forcing really isn't associated with it right now. MEI, RONI nor forcing currently portend a classic, east-base super el nino. Look back at every super el nino event and see where MEI,etc were as of June-July...not even close. Its not crazy to think that the residual la nina/war west PAC regime will alter things to a degree.

[George001]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The why do you have your mind made up that this winter will be awful?

I don’t like how strong the models are projecting the nino to get, and it’s not a modoki either. My concern is that even if things break favorable (I’m not optimistic about that) even the more favorable strong or super nino analogs aren’t all that great (2015-2016, 2009-2010) here. They are mid Atlantic winters. I could be wrong, certainly wouldn’t be the first time and won’t be the last either. However, based on how things look I’m setting my expectations low and they will remain low until proven otherwise (lots of snow in my backyard, not fantasy blizzards). 

[brooklynwx99]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, that is the thing...the forcing really isn't associated with it right now. MEI, RONI nor forcing currently portend a classic, east-base super el nino. Look back at every super el nino event and see where MEI,etc were as of June-July...not even close. Its not crazy to think that the residual la nina/war west PAC regime will alter things to a degree.

 

this wasn't posted for some reason... lmao

[snowman19]

23 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

 

this wasn't posted for some reason... lmao

Once again, it is not even worth looking at model projected forcing 4+ months from now. This has been said ad nauseam. I don’t care what it shows for forcing, east-based, west-based, central-based. Once again, let’s see where the forcing is in November. Remember the great forcing the models were showing at this point in time for the 19-20 winter???

[GaWx]

 The SOI has averaged solidly negative for over three weeks. What's interesting about that is that this has been driven by very high Darwin SLP rather than low Tahiti SLP. As a matter of fact, the three week period ending this Friday August 11th is going to end up having the highest three week averaged Darwin SLP on record by a good margin (records go back to 1991-2 El Niño). Here are the top five highest 21 day averaged Darwin SLPs on record:

1) 7/22-8/11/2023: ~1016.00 mb (exact # TBD on Friday)

2) 7/26-8/15/1997: 1015.83 mb

3) 8/4-8/24/1993: 1015.73 mb (not El Niño)

4) 7/11-31/2015: 1015.65 mb

5) 8/2-8/22/1994: 1015.54 mb

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

24 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Once again, it is not even worth looking at model projected forcing 4+ months from now. This has been said ad nauseam. I don’t care what it shows for forcing, east-based, west-based, central-based. Once again, let’s see where the forcing is in November. Remember the great forcing the models were showing at this point in time for the 19-20 winter???

Haven't you been communicating modeled 2.0+ peaks now for months?

[40/70 Benchmark]

24 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Once again, it is not even worth looking at model projected forcing 4+ months from now. This has been said ad nauseam. I don’t care what it shows for forcing, east-based, west-based, central-based. Once again, let’s see where the forcing is in November. Remember the great forcing the models were showing at this point in time for the 19-20 winter???

1) That el nino never really materialized

2) Solar activity was descending, which is much more unfavorable than the ascending portion of the cycle.

[brooklynwx99]

34 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Once again, it is not even worth looking at model projected forcing 4+ months from now. This has been said ad nauseam. I don’t care what it shows for forcing, east-based, west-based, central-based. Once again, let’s see where the forcing is in November. Remember the great forcing the models were showing at this point in time for the 19-20 winter???

so we can look at the modeled SST anomalies at 8 months out all we want, but we can't look at the modeled forcing, which is the thing that actually influences the pattern? why is that

[thunderbolt]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Once again, it is not even worth looking at model projected forcing 4+ months from now. This has been said ad nauseam. I don’t care what it shows for forcing, east-based, west-based, central-based. Once again, let’s see where the forcing is in November. Remember the great forcing the models were showing at this point in time for the 19-20 winter???

 

snowman19

Posted May 9

   On 5/9/2023 at 10:07 AM,  40/70 Benchmarksaid: 

Everyone run and hide before the ENSO eats us all alive

It’s going to be truly frightening when we see a strong to super east-based Nino in full force this fall . I’m actually looking forward to experiencing one, I was too young for 97-98 

[snowman19]

so we can look at the modeled SST anomalies at 8 months out all we want, but we can't look at the modeled forcing, which is the thing that actually influences the pattern? why is that

Haven't you been communicating modeled 2.0+ peaks now for months?

You don’t think ENSO events are easier to predict than forcing? While not an exact science, aside from the ultimate peak, it’s a lot easier to predict Nina’s and Nino’s months ahead

[snowman19]

The new C3S run is out

[snowman19]

Here’s the new JMA, showing a super El Niño

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

 

You don’t think ENSO events are easier to predict than forcing? While not an exact science, aside from the ultimate peak, it’s a lot easier to predict Nina’s and Nino’s months ahead

 

Sure, which is why its puzzling that you seem to exude confidence that this winter will evolve as a typical super-east based event. Its not necessarily that simple. But in the mean time, all we can do is post guidance and speculate, like you are.

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The new C3S run is out

That Aleutian low doesn't look to hug the coast that closely to me, which is why you get the lower heights over the se and higher heights over the arctic.

I'd take my chances with that CFS output...especially the 1957 analog.

[snowman19]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That Aleutian low doesn't look to hug the coast that closely to me, which is why you get the lower heights over the se and higher heights over the arctic.

I'd take my chances with that CFS output...especially the 1957 analog.

That’s not the CFS that’s the C3S. Given the new JMA, we are starting to see a consensus to a super El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

That’s not the CFS that’s the C3S. Given the new JMA, we are starting to see a consensus to a super El Nino

I'm not worried about the ONI number...my focus in on H5 and vp.

[brooklynwx99]

39 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not worried about the ONI number...my focus in on H5 and vp.

Webb’s tweet is dumb. no idea what he’s complaining about here… deep trough by Jan with forcing a tick east of the dateline. this will work

[40/70 Benchmark]

28 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

Webb’s tweet is dumb. no idea what he’s complaining about here… deep trough by Jan with forcing a tick east of the dateline. this will work

Yea, I didn't get it, either...he must be conforming to twitter by being lazy and focusing on SSTs....its like obsessing on model precip type algorithms when you have a powerful closed H5 s of LI and a strong Hi over se Canada in the dead of winter.

[snowman19]

Yea, I didn't get it, either...he must be conforming to twitter by being lazy and focusing on SSTs....its like obsessing on model precip type algorithms when you have a powerful closed H5 s of LI and a strong Hi over se Canada in the dead of winter.

Let’s assume for a minute, hypothetically, the Euro is right, this Niño goes super, +2.3C ONI for NDJ, region 1+2 stays around +3.0C and region 3 is at +2.7C come December….Are you going with a cold and snowy east coast winter? I can see the argument that yes, we may thread the needle and get lucky with a KU snow bomb up the coast (i.e. 1983, 2016). As far as it being a cold winter with multiple snowstorms up the coast (i.e. 02-03, 09-10)? Color me very, very skeptical in that scenario. Sorry, but that would be a very hard sell for me

[roardog]

Part of the problem is the very small sample size of super Nino. The other problem is the background warming that has taken place even since ‘15-‘16. Even the winter of ‘15-‘16 had a major cold shot in the NE part of the country. That alone is much different than ‘97-‘98 or ‘82-‘83. I think the warmer world makes it even tougher than it already is for the models to predict which in turn makes it harder for human forecasters because when the models go against your forecast, it makes you second guess it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Let’s assume for a minute, hypothetically, the Euro is right, this Niño goes super, +2.3C ONI for NDJ, region 1+2 stays around +3.0C and region 3 is at +2.7C come December….Are you going with a cold and snowy east coast winter? I can see the argument that yes, we may thread the needle and get lucky with a KU snow bomb up the coast (i.e. 1983, 2016). As far as it being a cold winter with multiple snowstorms up the coast (i.e. 02-03, 09-10)? Color me very, very skeptical in that scenario. Sorry, but that would be a very hard sell for me

I need more information....what does the west PAC look like and where does the VP set up?

And I think above normal snowfall is much more likely than below normal temps, regardless. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 minutes ago, roardog said:

Part of the problem is the very small sample size of super Nino. The other problem is the background warming that has taken place even since ‘15-‘16. Even the winter of ‘15-‘16 had a major cold shot in the NE part of the country. That alone is much different than ‘97-‘98 or ‘82-‘83. I think the warmer world makes it even tougher than it already is for the models to predict which in turn makes it harder for human forecasters because when the models go against your forecast, it makes you second guess it.

Not sure how it can argued that a warmer global climate doesn't modify intense el nino events somewhat. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

If the el nino ends up that intense, and the west Pacific cools, which would move the mean seasonal vp east of current guidance, then it would be a blow torch.

Let's try this....if the ONI peaks around 2.0 and the forcing sets up near the dateline because the anomalous west PAC warmth remains even more extreme and expansive than that within the ENSO region, how do you feel the winter would play out, snowman?

[griteater]

+2.0 does tend to be a sort of tipping point.  It reminds me of my backyard gas grill.  If I don't clean it out on a regular basis and then throw burgers on there, it can get to a point where the flames get out of control in a hurry if I don't stay on top of it with the temperature control, lol.

Here is a comparison of all Super El Ninos vs. all Strong El Ninos since the late 1800's for January-March (I couldn't include 2015-2016 due to the 20CV3 data ending in 2015).  Biggest differences are seen along the U.S. West Coast and in the region of the E Great Lakes into the Northeast.  Classic West Based -NAO shown on the Strong El Nino composite.

 

 

Here is the same comparison, but with 850mb Temperatures

 

 

 

Taking this back to December, we can see that both composites show pretty much a throw away for winter weather in the eastern 1/2 of the country, kind of opposite of La Nina - I don't know the specifics of why that is, but I suspect it has to do with how the seasonal cycle typically evolves from fall to winter during El Nino vs. La Nina.

 

[griteater]

7 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

Webb’s tweet is dumb. no idea what he’s complaining about here… deep trough by Jan with forcing a tick east of the dateline. this will work

That's one heck of a split-flow / powerhouse subtropical jet stream look there for January

[raindancewx]

The actual 2023 US temperature profile looks a lot like 1991 and 1982 in the sequential three month "seasons" since 1/1. No one has really noticed because the MJO cycle has been different all year. So the months individually are not great matches. But seasonally, Jan-Mar, Feb-Apr, Mar-May, etc are close to 2023. Especially if you add a degree or so for 1982.

The research I've seen on volcanism suggests that the ITCZ moves north/south of normal ENSO positions in response to major tropical eruptions. So it makes sense that you have essentially half of the "correct" rainfall response at the equator in July. I would say 2018 had half the response as well - but in the opposite way. Dry by Indonesia, no wet signal to the east. Essentially, the "wetness" that is moved off the equator in the older strong events is now at the equator - that's been my working theory. The research is that +aerosol net eruptions push the wetness north - so with Tonga I've assumed the opposite. 

For reference, here is 1972-73, and roughly what I expect for winter -

The CFS moves the wettest area in the tropics east through Feb-Apr. I think it's just a bit slow - what it has for Jan-Mar is very similar to what I just showed. The Canadian has the 2009-10 look, of 175W as the center-point for DJF instead of 160W.

[40/70 Benchmark]

35 minutes ago, griteater said:

+2.0 does tend to be a sort of tipping point.  It reminds me of my backyard gas grill.  If I don't clean it out on a regular basis and then throw burgers on there, it can get to a point where the flames get out of control in a hurry if I don't stay on top of it with the temperature control, lol.

Here is a comparison of all Super El Ninos vs. all Strong El Ninos since the late 1800's for January-March (I couldn't include 2015-2016 due to the 20CV3 data ending in 2015).  Biggest differences are seen along the U.S. West Coast and in the region of the E Great Lakes into the Northeast.  Classic West Based -NAO shown on the Strong El Nino composite.

 

 

Here is the same comparison, but with 850mb Temperatures

 

 

 

Taking this back to December, we can see that both composites show pretty much a throw away for winter weather in the eastern 1/2 of the country, kind of opposite of La Nina - I don't know the specifics of why that is, but I suspect it has to do with how the seasonal cycle typically evolves from fall to winter during El Nino vs. La Nina.

 

Great research, but intuitively speaking, I would expect that ONI threshold to move higher in the face of a warmer planet.

[40/70 Benchmark]

27 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

The actual 2023 US temperature profile looks a lot like 1991 and 1982 in the sequential three month "seasons" since 1/1. No one has really noticed because the MJO cycle has been different all year. So the months individually are not great matches. But seasonally, Jan-Mar, Feb-Apr, Mar-May, etc are close to 2023. Especially if you add a degree or so for 1982.

The research I've seen on volcanism suggests that the ITCZ moves north/south of normal ENSO positions in response to major tropical eruptions. So it makes sense that you have essentially half of the "correct" rainfall response at the equator in July. I would say 2018 had half the response as well - but in the opposite way. Dry by Indonesia, no wet signal to the east. Essentially, the "wetness" that is moved off the equator in the older strong events is now at the equator - that's been my working theory. The research is that +aerosol net eruptions push the wetness north - so with Tonga I've assumed the opposite. 

For reference, here is 1972-73, and roughly what I expect for winter -

The CFS moves the wettest area in the tropics east through Feb-Apr. I think it's just a bit slow - what it has for Jan-Mar is very similar to what I just showed. The Canadian has the 2009-10 look, of 175W as the center-point for DJF instead of 160W.

Raindance, what are your thoughts on the West PAC warm pool, assuming it persisits, potentially pulling the forcing west of what would normally be expected given the orientarion of the ENSO ssts. I think this is why the Canadian along with some other guidance does that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

33 minutes ago, griteater said:

That's one heck of a split-flow / powerhouse subtropical jet stream look there for January

My thought exactly...I won't mention what season that reminds me of, by it begins with 2 and ends with 0.