El Nino 2023-2024

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

so we might be looking at around a +1.5C to perhaps +1.8C el nino on the high end?

 

That is the ceiling for ONI that I have been advertising, so would make sense to me if that is what he is implying...comparable to 2009/1957 (JUST ONI, NOT SEASONAL ANALOGS PER SE)..years like that. Strong, but not uber-strong.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Wasn't that similar to 1993-94 too?

 

Kind of, but not as drastic....1993 had a hostile NAO region, but the AO was fairly negative for most of the season. 2014 was entirely Pacific driven.

[LibertyBell]

30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is the ceiling for ONI that I have been advertising, so would make sense to me if that is what he is implying...comparable to 2009/1957 (JUST ONI, NOT SEASONAL ANALOGS PER SE)..years like that. Strong, but not uber-strong.

and it looks like it would be basin wide, not "eastern" now

[40/70 Benchmark]

28 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

and it looks like it would be basin wide, not "eastern" now

Yea, I could def. see basin wide, but I wouldn't be surprised to ultimately see a western tilt, whether or not its a true modoki or not. We'll see....just conjecture at this point. I won't really begin looking at it until the summer.

[brooklynwx99]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I could def. see basin wide, but I wouldn't be surprised to ultimately see a western tilt, whether or not its a true modoki or not. We'll see....just conjecture at this point. I won't really begin looking at it until the summer.

well this is... robust

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

well this is... robust

Mean is probably about 1.8.

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Mean is probably about 1.8.

would totally take that. anything to get this Nina crap out of there

basin wide anomalies like that would be totally fine, too. just can't be pure east-based

[40/70 Benchmark]

26 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

would totally take that. anything to get this Nina crap out of there

basin wide anomalies like that would be totally fine, too. just can't be pure east-based

PDO will definitely be higher...it has to...but how much?

The fear is a 1972-1973 type of outcome, where the PDO remains negative and a higher end el nino is biased east.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

PDO will definitely be higher...it has to...but how much?

The fear is a 1972-1973 type of outcome, where the PDO remains negative and a higher end el nino is biased east.

Look familiar out west?

[40/70 Benchmark]

We need it to shift to at least centered around 140-150W by about November/December.

[40/70 Benchmark]

The depth of the troughing is a bit exaggerated due to greater baseline ambient heights 50 years later, but it still sucks against 1951-2010 climo.

[Terpeast]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The depth of the troughing is a bit exaggerated due to greater baseline ambient heights 50 years later, but it still sucks against 1951-2010 climo.

If anything, it looks even worse than this winter pattern-wise. 72-73 has +ao/+nao, while we had strong -nao twice, neither of which produced for the MA 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

If anything, it looks even worse than this winter pattern-wise. 72-73 has +ao/+nao, while we had strong -nao twice, neither of which produced for the MA 

Yea, its just about impossible to get a seasonal neg AO/NAO with a healthy east-based el nino. This is why orientation is so crucial because it is that which dictates the nature of the convective forcing that sets the Hadley/Rosby wave train in the mid latitudes.

Now, if ENSO were to remain meager, then that is different....but I don't expect that.

[roardog]

December 72 didn't look anything like a Nino across the US. The coldest temp anomalies were in the northern plains. Maybe from the -PDO?

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, roardog said:

December 72 didn't look anything like a Nino across the US. The coldest temp anomalies were in the northern plains. Maybe from the -PDO?

Yes, I think....it would cause it to mimic cool ENSO in some respects because both favor lower heights to the north.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

well this is... robust

 The trend from last month's plume is significantly more robust (see last month's plume below). Per eyeballing the Euro ensemble mean for each month:

- July increased from March 1's forecast of ~+1.0 to this forecast of ~+1.3.

- Aug increased from ~+1.1 to ~+1.5

- Sep increased from ~+1.2 to ~+1.8

- So, JAS increased from ~+1.1 last month to ~+1.5 this month.

- Oct is ~+1.9

- So, ASO is ~+1.7 on this month's.

- Keep in mind that this is based on 1981-2010 climo. But even if it were based on 1991-2020, it would be about the same per this:

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_change.shtml

------------

Last month's not as robust plume for JAS, which was near +1.1:

 

[GaWx]

 So, the April 1st Euro ensemble mean 3.4 plume for ASO is ~+1.7. How does this compare to some past actual El Niño ASOs?

2015: +2.2

1997: +2.1

1965: +1.9

1972, 1982: +1.6

1957: +1.3

1963: +1.2

 For these 7, the average increase from ASO to peak was 0.4 with a range of 0.1 to 0.6. So, that would imply based on the April 1st Euro ASO forecast of +1.7 a later peak between +1.8 and +2.3 (mean of +2.1).

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

 Keep in mind though that none of this takes into account whatever forecast bias the Euro may or may not have (see below). And of course even if the bias is negligible, there is mean forecast error to keep in mind when looking ahead that far (as much as 6 months).

 How does the April 1st Euro plume mean of +1.7 for ASO compare to some past April 1st Euro progs for ASO?

- 2017: +1.1 (the year of worst forecast) vs -0.4 actual

- 2015: +2.0 vs +2.2 actual

- 2014: +1.5 vs +0.2 actual

- 2012: +1.0 vs +0.4 actual

- 2009: +0.8 based on May 1st forecast vs +0.7 actual

 So, for these 5 years, the April 1st forecast mean for ASO ended up too warm 4 times and too cool once. On average for these five years, the April forecast for ASO was 0.6 too warm. Even if I were to throw out the 2017 forecast debacle, the April forecast for ASO for the remaining four years was still 0.45 too warm. So, perhaps the April 1st forecast for ASO has a too warm bias. If so, the odds would favor the actual ASO end up lower than +1.7.
 

 But regardless, the +1.7 ASO prediction being the 2nd warmest for the Euro in April is a significant indicator that a pretty robust El Niño is probably on the way. Even if I were to reduce the +1.7 ASO forecast to +1.2 or +1.3 to account for Euro warm bias, that would still imply that the later peak would most likely end up in the strong (+1.5 to +1.9) category though most likely not super-strong and with high end moderate also in the mix. Then again, the trend from last month's Euro forecast is significantly warmer.
 
 So, we'll see! Lots of uncertainty but the chance for a robust El Niño has increased significantly from last month based on the Euro.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I forecast a colder/snowier Winter because we had +PNA last Apr-Oct, and Russia snowpack started accreting very rapid in the Fall. The SE ridge right now is seeming to be organic to the EC/Midwest (how models trend), so that may negate some of the -PNA relevance to ENSO right now. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Subsurface thermocline is evening out, although I bet the surface event will get stuck at where global SSTA maxes are. If it surpasses those maxes before July, it will probably go Strong Nino. I am again, weary because 3 years in a row we warmed March-May then June cooled. 

[snowman19]

 So, the April 1st Euro ensemble mean 3.4 plume for ASO is ~+1.7. How does this compare to some past actual El Niño ASOs?
2015: +2.2
1997: +2.1
1965: +1.9
1972, 1982: +1.6
1957: +1.3
1963: +1.2
 For these 7, the average increase from ASO to peak was 0.4 with a range of 0.1 to 0.6. So, that would imply based on the April 1st Euro ASO forecast of +1.7 a later peak between +1.8 and +2.3 (mean of +2.1).
https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php
 Keep in mind though that none of this takes into account whatever forecast bias the Euro may or may not have (see below). And of course even if the bias is negligible, there is mean forecast error to keep in mind when looking ahead that far (as much as 6 months).
 How does the April 1st Euro plume mean of +1.7 for ASO compare to some past April 1st Euro progs for ASO?
- 2017: +1.1 (the year of worst forecast) vs -0.4 actual
- 2015: +2.0 vs +2.2 actual
- 2014: +1.5 vs +0.2 actual
- 2012: +1.0 vs +0.4 actual
- 2009: +0.8 based on May 1st forecast vs +0.7 actual
 So, for these 5 years, the April 1st forecast mean for ASO ended up too warm 4 times and too cool once. On average for these five years, the April forecast for ASO was 0.6 too warm. Even if I were to throw out the 2017 forecast debacle, the April forecast for ASO for the remaining four years was still 0.45 too warm. So, perhaps the April 1st forecast for ASO has a too warm bias. If so, the odds would favor the actual ASO end up lower than +1.7.
 
 But regardless, the +1.7 ASO prediction being the 2nd warmest for the Euro in April is a significant indicator that a pretty robust El Niño is probably on the way. Even if I were to reduce the +1.7 ASO forecast to +1.2 or +1.3 to account for Euro warm bias, that would still imply that the later peak would most likely end up in the strong (+1.5 to +1.9) category though most likely not super-strong and with high end moderate also in the mix. Then again, the trend from last month's Euro forecast is significantly warmer.
 
 So, we'll see! Lots of uncertainty but the chance for a robust El Niño has increased significantly from last month based on the Euro.

I’m praying for a very strong El Niño, east-based, late peak. PLEASE!!!!

[snowman19]

Yea, I could def. see basin wide, but I wouldn't be surprised to ultimately see a western tilt, whether or not its a true modoki or not. We'll see....just conjecture at this point. I won't really begin looking at it until the summer.

We haven’t seen a true east-based El Niño in 25 years. Every Nino since then has been Modoki/western tilt/basin-wide. Eventually it’s going to happen again, east-based events tend to be more common in -PDO regimes

[40/70 Benchmark]

53 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

We haven’t seen a true east-based El Niño in 25 years. Every Nino since then has been Modoki/western tilt/basin-wide. Eventually it’s going to happen again, east-based events tend to be more common in -PDO regimes

2006-2007 was east based....we also had an uber event in 2015.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Since the 2014-2015 unicorn, been three consecutive mild and well below average snowfall warm ENSO events for my area, if you want to talk about being "due"...warm ENSO is normally the east coast's bread and butter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 4/5/2023 at 11:28 AM, GaWx said:

 So, the April 1st Euro ensemble mean 3.4 plume for ASO is ~+1.7. How does this compare to some past actual El Niño ASOs?

2015: +2.2

1997: +2.1

1965: +1.9

1972, 1982: +1.6

1957: +1.3

1963: +1.2

 For these 7, the average increase from ASO to peak was 0.4 with a range of 0.1 to 0.6. So, that would imply based on the April 1st Euro ASO forecast of +1.7 a later peak between +1.8 and +2.3 (mean of +2.1).

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

 Keep in mind though that none of this takes into account whatever forecast bias the Euro may or may not have (see below). And of course even if the bias is negligible, there is mean forecast error to keep in mind when looking ahead that far (as much as 6 months).

 How does the April 1st Euro plume mean of +1.7 for ASO compare to some past April 1st Euro progs for ASO?

- 2017: +1.1 (the year of worst forecast) vs -0.4 actual

- 2015: +2.0 vs +2.2 actual

- 2014: +1.5 vs +0.2 actual

- 2012: +1.0 vs +0.4 actual

- 2009: +0.8 based on May 1st forecast vs +0.7 actual

 So, for these 5 years, the April 1st forecast mean for ASO ended up too warm 4 times and too cool once. On average for these five years, the April forecast for ASO was 0.6 too warm. Even if I were to throw out the 2017 forecast debacle, the April forecast for ASO for the remaining four years was still 0.45 too warm. So, perhaps the April 1st forecast for ASO has a too warm bias. If so, the odds would favor the actual ASO end up lower than +1.7.
 

 But regardless, the +1.7 ASO prediction being the 2nd warmest for the Euro in April is a significant indicator that a pretty robust El Niño is probably on the way. Even if I were to reduce the +1.7 ASO forecast to +1.2 or +1.3 to account for Euro warm bias, that would still imply that the later peak would most likely end up in the strong (+1.5 to +1.9) category though most likely not super-strong and with high end moderate also in the mix. Then again, the trend from last month's Euro forecast is significantly warmer.
 
 So, we'll see! Lots of uncertainty but the chance for a robust El Niño has increased significantly from last month based on the Euro.

Agree with high-end mod to strong, but not uber-strong. That has been my thought.

[csnavywx]

On 4/5/2023 at 11:28 AM, GaWx said:

 So, the April 1st Euro ensemble mean 3.4 plume for ASO is ~+1.7. How does this compare to some past actual El Niño ASOs?

2015: +2.2

1997: +2.1

1965: +1.9

1972, 1982: +1.6

1957: +1.3

1963: +1.2

 For these 7, the average increase from ASO to peak was 0.4 with a range of 0.1 to 0.6. So, that would imply based on the April 1st Euro ASO forecast of +1.7 a later peak between +1.8 and +2.3 (mean of +2.1).

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

 Keep in mind though that none of this takes into account whatever forecast bias the Euro may or may not have (see below). And of course even if the bias is negligible, there is mean forecast error to keep in mind when looking ahead that far (as much as 6 months).

 How does the April 1st Euro plume mean of +1.7 for ASO compare to some past April 1st Euro progs for ASO?

- 2017: +1.1 (the year of worst forecast) vs -0.4 actual

- 2015: +2.0 vs +2.2 actual

- 2014: +1.5 vs +0.2 actual

- 2012: +1.0 vs +0.4 actual

- 2009: +0.8 based on May 1st forecast vs +0.7 actual

 So, for these 5 years, the April 1st forecast mean for ASO ended up too warm 4 times and too cool once. On average for these five years, the April forecast for ASO was 0.6 too warm. Even if I were to throw out the 2017 forecast debacle, the April forecast for ASO for the remaining four years was still 0.45 too warm. So, perhaps the April 1st forecast for ASO has a too warm bias. If so, the odds would favor the actual ASO end up lower than +1.7.
 

 But regardless, the +1.7 ASO prediction being the 2nd warmest for the Euro in April is a significant indicator that a pretty robust El Niño is probably on the way. Even if I were to reduce the +1.7 ASO forecast to +1.2 or +1.3 to account for Euro warm bias, that would still imply that the later peak would most likely end up in the strong (+1.5 to +1.9) category though most likely not super-strong and with high end moderate also in the mix. Then again, the trend from last month's Euro forecast is significantly warmer.
 
 So, we'll see! Lots of uncertainty but the chance for a robust El Niño has increased significantly from last month based on the Euro.

There was a *very rare* strong EPac WWB in the first half of March that did a lot of work on the thermocline and boosted the odds of a strong event. There's a smaller one ongoing right now. Not all Nino events build the same way and the sort of evolution we're seeing now strongly suggests we're tilting towards an east-based event. If we continue to get some cooperation from the WPac and get an extension towards the dateline while all of this work is being done on the thermocline in the east -- better start shifting those targets higher.

 

This equatorial rossby wave event might help do the job:

 

 

 

[raindancewx]

The subsurface from 100-180W at 0-300m depth shows that the cold below the surface ended in February. Similar to 2016-17, another incredible winter for California late.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

The actual Jan-Feb-Mar transition in 2023 below the surface at 100-180w is:

-0.24 / +0.09 / +0.84

Here is 2018:

-0.16 / -0.11 / +0.51

The subsurface is actually still much colder and slower to warm than 2014:

-0.33 / +0.39 / +1.60

1997 was slower to warm than 2014 too -

+0.56 / +1.00 / +1.17

The closest simple match below the surface to 2023 is really a 2014/2018 blend:

2018/2018/2014: -0.22 / +0.06 / +0.87

2023:                   -0.24 / +0.09 / +0.84

The Nate Mantua / Jisao PDO was still running around -1.56 for March. Any type of canonical El Nino response needs to squash the -PDO. It's sort of the opposite of 2014, when the super +PDO created El Nino conditions before it was fully there.

[raindancewx]

Also, using the most -PDO years on the JISAO index, -1 or below for Nov-Apr since 1931, you have very few cold seasons:

Dec-Feb	N-A PDO	Next DJF
1955	-2.63	LA
1971	-1.78	EL
1948	-1.62	LA
1961	-1.53	N
1949	-1.50	LA
1990	-1.48	EL
1970	-1.45	LA
1975	-1.42	EL
2008	-1.39	EL
1950	-1.35	EL
2011	-1.28	N
1973	-1.14	LA
1956	-1.07	EL
1951	-1.02	N

The PDO value for Nov-Mar 2022-23 is currently -1.54. Here is the blend of the six El Ninos after the most -PDO cold seasons. Fairly similar to what the Canadian showed for strength and placement? PDO/AMO are very different though.

[thunderbolt]

11 hours ago, snowman19 said:

We haven’t seen a true east-based El Niño in 25 years. Every Nino since then has been Modoki/western tilt/basin-wide. Eventually it’s going to happen again, east-based events tend to be more common in -PDO regimes

What is the Definition of East based

[thunderbolt]

Just now, thunderbolt said:

What is the Definition of East based

Does region 1/2 have  to be .5 stronger then region 3.4 And I always thought region 1.2 is more volatile than any of the regions always up and down

[Terpeast]

17 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I’m praying for a very strong El Niño, east-based, late peak. PLEASE!!!!

you should probably change your name...