El Nino 2023-2024

[so_whats_happening]

Sorry don't want to take up too many of your post allotments but im also pretty sure many many models were forecasting a leveling off or downturn (some more drastic than others) of region 1+2. Could be a situation where they were too quick with that changeover guess we will find out soon enough how everything transpires. 

[snowman19]

 In addition to the TAO buoy 5 day averaged images, I follow all 3 daily index changes. However regarding absolutes, the closest of the 3 to ERSST, which ONI is based on, is OISST as CRW has tended to be too warm and CDAS has been too cool. ERSST has recently been slightly cooler than OISST but closer to it than to CDAS. Also, the weekly SST updates use OISST.

Agreed and just my opinion….I think we are in a strong El Niño come September


.

[George001]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Agreed and just my opinion….I think we are in a strong El Niño come September


.

Yeah I’m thinking we get to strong by September and super by November (maybe even late October if the warmer guidance is right). That Paul Roundy guy really knows his shit.

[snowman19]

[GaWx]

 Regarding 2024-5, Modoki La Niña?

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 8/5/2023 at 2:27 PM, snowman19 said:

IMO the +IOD alters the WPAC. I can buy a -AO/-NAO. Ok, fine. But if there’s actually a +2.3C super Nino, I have a very hard time believing a PAC like that…-EPO/-WPO/+PNA with a super Nino in place? I think not. Strong/Super El Nino very strongly favors a +EPO with a well east displaced Aleutian Low and a raging, epic STJ crashing into the west coast isn’t going to allow a +PNA to sustain itself, as soon as one (+PNA) pops up, it’s going to get knocked right back down by the STJ/El Nino

Because the ONI reading belies the true intensity of the el nino if the hemispheric gradient is weaker....what you are saying is akin to asking how a 984mb low can be associated with a stronger storm than a 968mb low...the answer has to the with so the pattern upstream....maybe the 984mb low has a 1058mb high over Minnesota (blizzard of 1978), and in the case of the 968mb low, there is a 1022mb high. 

Same thing goes with hurricanes....it depends on ambient envt. because that is part of the overall system....one storm maybe a cat 5 with a 930mb minimum central pressure, and another a cat 3.

You can generalize ENSO events by ONI, nor storms by minimum central pressure....yes, there is a correlation with intensity, but its imperfect because there are other factors at play. ENSO is a complex, multifaceted system of oscillations between seal level pressure, ocean currents and wind across the hemisphere that can't be fully captured by one index...more to it than that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Regarding 2024-5, Modoki La Niña?

Probably...winters descending from a solar max usually suck when coupled w a westerly QBO.

[Terpeast]

42 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Probably...winters descending from a solar max usually suck when coupled w a westerly QBO.

This winter better deliver, or we’re looking at 3 ratters in a row. 

I want to be joking, but idk

[Typhoon Tip]

42 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

This winter better deliver, or we’re looking at 3 ratters in a row. 

I want to be joking, but idk

I feel like it's been 7 ratters.  Roughly since 2015.  but yeah, either way.  I don't personally consider years that gave a pine sagging snow event in the springs.  I think of spring events almost uniquely

Man, it's really tough to slip into autumn mode then summarily have that same mode ( save a single cold snap and/or one storm in 5 months...) pretty much define the climate until the following March.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

This winter better deliver, or we’re looking at 3 ratters in a row. 

I want to be joking, but idk

It's okay, lol I'm trying to mentally train myself to be okay with this if it happens...gonna be tough tho

[George001]

I wouldn’t write off 2024-2025 so soon, even if it does end up being a La Niña. This is following a similar pattern to 2009-2010 to 2010-2011, and the La Niña ended up being the more severe winter. Depends on what the other factors look like too which won’t be known for a while. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, George001 said:

I wouldn’t write off 2024-2025 so soon, even if it does end up being a La Niña. This is following a similar pattern to 2009-2010 to 2010-2011, and the La Niña ended up being the more severe winter. Depends on what the other factors look like too which won’t be known for a while. 

That would depend on your location...down here it was the opposite, lol (but of course this isn't a region specific thread)

[George001]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

That would depend on your location...down here it was the opposite, lol (but of course this isn't a region specific thread)

Good point. Where you live I would not want anything to do with La Niña, but I would be really excited about this coming winter. I think 2024-2025 could be a really interesting winter if it does become a La Niña. A combination of a traditional La Niña pattern (active northern branch) with leftover STJ from the 2023-2024 super nino could lead to a really good pattern for NYC north. If everything lines up perfectly (weak Nina, super east based) then the mid Atlantic may get involved too, but my gut feeling is if we get a Nina it won’t be anywhere near weak. Im not sure exactly WHY this is (I’ll defer to the experts on that), but historically strong ninas often come after strong or super ninos and vice versa. 

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

It's okay, lol I'm trying to mentally train myself to be okay with this if it happens...gonna be tough tho

You've come a long way.

[Terpeast]

35 minutes ago, George001 said:

Good point. Where you live I would not want anything to do with La Niña, but I would be really excited about this coming winter. I think 2024-2025 could be a really interesting winter if it does become a La Niña. A combination of a traditional La Niña pattern (active northern branch) with leftover STJ from the 2023-2024 super nino could lead to a really good pattern for NYC north. If everything lines up perfectly (weak Nina, super east based) then the mid Atlantic may get involved too, but my gut feeling is if we get a Nina it won’t be anywhere near weak. Im not sure exactly WHY this is (I’ll defer to the experts on that), but historically strong ninas often come after strong or super ninos and vice versa. 

My hypothesis is that with CC and warmer SSTs overall, ninas will become stronger (relative ONI) while ninos become weaker. 

[griteater]

Last 4 days of the SOI have been lower than -20. 

One old rule of thumb I've seen is the 14/7 rule...when the 30 day SOI is -14 or lower and the 90 day SOI is -7 or lower, that's when Nino 3.4 warming kicks in.  Not far off now 

 

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, George001 said:

I wouldn’t write off 2024-2025 so soon, even if it does end up being a La Niña. This is following a similar pattern to 2009-2010 to 2010-2011, and the La Niña ended up being the more severe winter. Depends on what the other factors look like too which won’t be known for a while. 

 At Atlanta and in much of the SE, both 2009-10 and 2010-1 had cold and wintry Dec-Jan making for two good winters in a row, overall. But Feb had major differences between the cold/wintry 2010 and the mild 2011 although even it had snow at Atlanta. Strictly in terms of snowfall, Atlanta had more snow in each of 2009-10 (5.3") and 2010-11 (7.1") than any others between 1983-4 and the present. I will note however that although 1987-8 had less (4.2"), that was all sleet meaning the water equivalent of ~8-9" of snow.

 Regardless of Feb, which is often mild during La Niña in the SE anyway, 2010-1 was one of the, if not the, coldest/wintriest moderate+ La Niñas in decades at Atlanta and much of the SE. That looks like it was Modoki. 1988-9 was another Modoki and was a bit warmer than normal overall, but Feb of 1989 was snowy in much of the SE, especially NC, and produced one deep SE snow (1" even way down here).

 

[griteater]

Latest MEI update is in at +0.3 for June/July.  For years coming off La Nina and flipping to El Nino, the closest matches right now with the MEI since 1980 are 2006-2007 and 2009-2010 (not shown on chart below which is from the MEI page)  MEI.v2: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, griteater said:

Latest MEI update is in at +0.3 for June/July.  For years coming off La Nina and flipping to El Nino, the closest matches right now with the MEI since 1980 are 2006-2007 and 2009-2010 (not shown on chart below which is from the MEI page)  MEI.v2: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory

02/03 is actually closer imho with a +.4 in both May/June and June/July readings.

[griteater]

9 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

02/03 is actually closer imho with a +.4 in both May/June and June/July readings.

Yeah, that one too.  I was looking for prior year La Ninas, but early 2002 was still in some weak negative ENSO numbers from the multi-year La Nina

[snowman19]

[roardog]

36 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

Isn’t that similar to what happened in 1925?

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 hours ago, George001 said:

I wouldn’t write off 2024-2025 so soon, even if it does end up being a La Niña. This is following a similar pattern to 2009-2010 to 2010-2011, and the La Niña ended up being the more severe winter. Depends on what the other factors look like too which won’t be known for a while. 

The why do you have your mind made up that this winter will be awful?

[40/70 Benchmark]

52 minutes ago, roardog said:

Isn’t that similar to what happened in 1925?

Right.....what is the difference?

The forcing.....if it shifts east, winter will be a toaster bath again....but if it doesn't, like most guidance suggests, then we should do at least okay and perhaps very well.

Too much obsession over the SST pattern when it isn't congruent with what the atmosphere is actually doing. Again, can that change? Sure.

I will say, most guidance had la nina remaining basin-wide with an eastward tilt into November of last season and were still wrong...so, I am not trying to imply that consensus can't be wrong, especially at this stage. 

This can still easily go either way at this stage...breaking news, I know.

[snowman19]

Right.....what is the difference?
The forcing.....if it shifts east, winter will be a toaster bath again....but if it doesn't, like most guidance suggests, then we should do at least okay and perhaps very well.
Too much obsession over the SST pattern when it isn't congruent with what the atmosphere is actually doing. Again, can that change? Sure.
I will say, most guidance had la nina remaining basin-wide with an eastward tilt into November of last season and were still wrong...so, I am not trying to imply that consensus can't be wrong, especially at this stage. 
This can still easily go either way at this stage...breaking news, I know.

The thing that’s certain at this point is that it’s not becoming a Modoki. Mr. Bastardi can tweet 100 more times between now and December that it’s going to turn into a Modoki and it’s not going to change that fact

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, snowman19 said:

The thing that’s certain at this point is that it’s not becoming a Modoki. Mr. Bastardi can tweet 100 more times between now and December that it’s going to turn into a Modoki and it’s not going to change that fact

In terms of SST configuration, I agree; however, some of these vp plots appear very modoki ish.

[snowman19]

In terms of SST configuration, I agree; however, some of these vp plots appear very modoki ish.

I’d wait until November to give the El Nino and +IOD a chance to really get going, then see where we are at with the forcing at that point

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I’d wait until November to give the El Nino and +IOD a chance to really get going, then see where we are at with the forcing at that point

Yes, like I said....can totally change. Just saying how it looks now.

[mitchnick]

48 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Right.....what is the difference?

The forcing.....if it shifts east, winter will be a toaster bath again....but if it doesn't, like most guidance suggests, then we should do at least okay and perhaps very well.

Too much obsession over the SST pattern when it isn't congruent with what the atmosphere is actually doing. Again, can that change? Sure.

I will say, most guidance had la nina remaining basin-wide with an eastward tilt into November of last season and were still wrong...so, I am not trying to imply that consensus can't be wrong, especially at this stage. 

This can still easily go either way at this stage...breaking news, I know.

I'm wondering if that explains the paultry MEI numbers...greatest SSTA are focused east but the atmosphere is signaling forcing will be west as most modeling shows at this point. Just a thought.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I'm wondering if that explains the paultry MEI numbers...greatest SSTA are focused east but the atmosphere is signaling forcing will be west as most modeling shows at this point. Just a thought.

ENSO is indicative of a classic, east based super el nino....but the globe isn't.....nor is the west PAC. This is conveyed by both the RONI and MEI.