El Nino 2023-2024

[40/70 Benchmark]

The largest wildcard for me this season is the impact of the volcano on the PV....I suspect that we will be fine unless we get #pinatuboed.

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Tend to bias my opinion on a heavier, spicier RONI application. Personally like the study and suspect it is on to point; it's just probably not inclusive enough for not yet knowing what all the offset factors really are. Given that there are 2ndary/...tertiary emergent feedback involved in the ongoing shenanigans of the total planetary integration  - give the study time. 

I'm not saying the we're headed for a "El Sin Sentido" ... just that I suspect RONIism is an evolving/ fluid aspect that probably is also a changing with +delta year to subsequent year.  As the Earth warms and the HC integration with the rest of the westerlies ...and event the Ferril latitude trades are effected, there interferences as yet unknown ... et all. 

Yea, same page....had I taken the RONI conceptualization into consideration back in 2018 and 2019, it likely would have mitigated what were two absolute clunker-seasonal forecasting efforts those years. By far my two worst. I based everything on modest warm ENSO events that never coupled (2018-2019) and never really existed (2019-2020).

[snowman19]

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The model biases have been very obvious since the spring. Nino 1+2 hasn’t cooled yet like the models have been forecasting. Nino 3.4 hasn’t warmed as fast as expected. The WPAC hasn’t cooled as fast as several models have been forecasting. The +30C SSTs have returned near Indonesia. So this leaves us with a continuation of WPAC forcing. This has also allowed the upper ocean heat content to decline In July to further back in the pack.
 

 

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/dashboard.html

 

The +IOD has just started to develop…once that really gets going in the next month it’s going to alter the forcing and SST configuration in the WPAC

[40/70 Benchmark]

@brooklynwx992009-2010 is a horrible solar analog....that is my primary issue with that season.

[brooklynwx99]

35 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@brooklynwx992009-2010 is a horrible solar analog....that is my primary issue with that season.

yeah i get that. i just don’t really factor that in as much as other variables 

[40/70 Benchmark]

48 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah i get that. i just don’t really factor that in as much as other variables 

We will also have to see if the forcing actually sets up that far west...maybe a bit east of that season.

[snowman19]

The more +IOD may only cool a small area near SE Asia and leave the warmer SSTs in place west of the Dateline to north of Australia.   Models have been too fast to cool the WPAC along with Nino 1+2. So it’s possible that we could eventually see multiple areas of forcing going forward. Very tough for the models to predict since their forcing forecasts beyond 10 days haven’t been very good. Also not sure how dual forcing centers, should this occur, would affect the actual pattern. Those types of interactions could be complex leading to errors in the forecasts. 

Back in 97-98 there was actually a secondary area of low frequency forcing in region 1+2 during the winter. Whether or not we see dual areas of forcing this winter remains to be seen but a definite possibility

[GaWx]

Nino 1+2 just hit a new high today on OISST at +3.521!

Compare the above to this June 21st CFS mean prediction based on the prior 40 runs, which had it at only +2.25 in July and +2 in August:

 

Same with Nino 3 at +1.897:

[snowman19]

38 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Nino 1+2 just hit a new high today on OISST at +3.521!

Compare the above to this June 21st CFS mean prediction based on the prior 40 runs, which had it at only +2.25 in July and +2 in August:

 

Same with Nino 3 at +1.897:

As east-based as they come…..

[brooklynwx99]

13 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

As east-based as they come…..

it means next to nothing at this point in the year. even the CanSIPS still has a highly-east based Nino for this month

[griteater]

Latest update to El Nino SST Base chart (Best Match Years) with July data now in...

[raindancewx]

The 'RONI' stuff you guys are talking about looks like it is pretty useless for seasonal forecasting. The correlations to anything you'd want to forecast for Fall/Winter/Spring are lower than the SST figures. In other words, PNA, WPO/EPO, PDO, temperatures, whatever - it all corresponds more cleanly to actual temperatures and especially changes in temperatures.

The other more basic issue with using RONI is that CPC has no actual idea how warm the tropics are in a centered sense in the current 30-year period....because only half the period has happened. They're essentially guessing how warm the tropics are outside 120-170W, 5N-5S should be in La Nina v. an El Nino for 2011-2040 and then subtracting out the current warmth/coolness in the tropics against that imagined baseline. 

I think it's generally understood that the Indian Ocean at low latitudes warms faster than the others. So for me I just to try carefully match up the Indian Ocean tendency with the Pacific. You need the entire circumference of the tropical oceans to be ballpark in terms of tendencies to have a shot at a decent seasonal forecast. 

[Typhoon Tip]

The ENSO states are being increasingly cut off - expressed via the upward frequency of empirically observed decoupled hemispheres. 

RONI expresses that … which immediately, logic dictates reliance on the predictive states of the ENSO in the evolution of seasonal forecasting, cannot be as readily inferred nor assumed as useful. 

 

 

[raindancewx]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The ENSO states are being increasingly cut off - expressed via the upward frequency of empirically observed decoupled hemispheres. 

RONI expresses that … which immediately, logic dictates reliance on the predictive states of the ENSO in the evolution of seasonal forecasting, cannot be as readily inferred nor assumed as useful. 

 

 

I keep trying to tell you this but you seem to miss out:

ENSO was never predictive for temperatures or precipitation in your region. The correlations for RONI are even worse. Go look - I dare you. We both know you won't.

[snowman19]

The 'RONI' stuff you guys are talking about looks like it is pretty useless for seasonal forecasting. The correlations to anything you'd want to forecast for Fall/Winter/Spring are lower than the SST figures. In other words, PNA, WPO/EPO, PDO, temperatures, whatever - it all corresponds more cleanly to actual temperatures and especially changes in temperatures.
The other more basic issue with using RONI is that CPC has no actual idea how warm the tropics are in a centered sense in the current 30-year period....because only half the period has happened. They're essentially guessing how warm the tropics are outside 120-170W, 5N-5S should be in La Nina v. an El Nino for 2011-2040 and then subtracting out the current warmth/coolness in the tropics against that imagined baseline. 
I think it's generally understood that the Indian Ocean at low latitudes warms faster than the others. So for me I just to try carefully match up the Indian Ocean tendency with the Pacific. You need the entire circumference of the tropical oceans to be ballpark in terms of tendencies to have a shot at a decent seasonal forecast. 

The RONI will be an excuse by some people on the east coast to predict a very cold and very snowy winter even if this El Nino goes super (over +2.0C) in late fall/beginning of winter. “Don’t worry that the Nino is peaking at +2.2C, it means nothing. The RONI is lower and weaker, it’s only showing a strong El Niño so it will not behave anything at all like a super Nino, it’s going to behave like a strong to high-end moderate Nino. The RONI is way more important, just look at that, don’t let that +2.2C super peak fool you”

[Typhoon Tip]

9 hours ago, raindancewx said:

I keep trying to tell you this but you seem to miss out:

ENSO was never predictive for temperatures or precipitation in your region. The correlations for RONI are even worse. Go look - I dare you. We both know you won't.

I am not considering my region in the discussion.  I've never written a focus in that regard, certainly not as any of this pertains to temperature and precipitation correlations and all that jazz.  

You are assuming that I am?   ...incorrect.  No interest.  Never have. 

I am speaking about the planetary system as whole, and that these ENSO regimes are becoming less forcing on the hemispheric patterns.  That's it, nothing else.  I leave it up to those that fancy a skill for/in quadrature, to hopefully include that in a rational prediction.

You will not see it written by me, anywhere, where the cold and/or temperature departures are anticipating based upon ENSO.  I merely advise - what was once pure speculation and I made that clear, but has since being scienced in the field/ambit in general.

 

[griteater]

15 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The largest wildcard for me this season is the impact of the volcano on the PV....I suspect that we will be fine unless we get #pinatuboed.

I have posted some thoughts on the Hunga Tonga volcanic eruption and the QBO in Chuck's Winter thread -

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59184-winter-2023-2024/?do=findComment&comment=6971703

 

[Typhoon Tip]

As far as New England ... I've been probably the loudest proponent of LESS ENSO reliance ( in general) from the NP-GL-NE region (particularly the latter two) for years in fact.  The proximity of those regions to the intraseasonal polar index variability (EPO/AO/NAO arc) too often supplants the pure Pacific model. 

Those regions may correlate to ENSOs more arguably so through indirection (i.e, lower correlation coefficients ) ... which gets rather muddled.  Different discussion... 

[griteater]

Latest Euro Seasonal is in for Aug 1...

 

3.4 Plume is warmer this run -> and Super El Nino is forecasted

 

Nino 1.2 is also warmer this run

 

Nino SST footprint for Dec-Feb looks a lot like 2015-2016.  Super Nino that is basin wide

 

Precipitation for Dec-Feb has bulge at the Dateline / Gulf of Mexico / East Coast

 

500mb for Dec-Feb has +PNA / -AO / -NAO

 

Surface for Dec-Feb has Aleutian Low / Low pressure along E Coast

 

Indices show healthy +PNA / -NAO for Jan-Feb

 

 

[George001]

7 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The RONI will be an excuse by some people on the east coast to predict a very cold and very snowy winter even if this El Nino goes super (over +2.0C) in late fall/beginning of winter. “Don’t worry that the Nino is peaking at +2.2C, it means nothing. The RONI is lower and weaker, it’s only showing a strong El Niño so it will not behave anything at all like a super Nino, it’s going to behave like a strong to high-end moderate Nino. The RONI is way more important, just look at that, don’t let that +2.2C super peak fool you”

ONI isn’t the only relevant index to be fair, MEI is also useful as well. However, nino strong enough to get to a super peak of +2.2 is going to have a really high MEO, RONI, whatever index you want to use value as well. Regardless, it doesn’t really make sense to favor a cold and snowy winter in the east with a nino this strong. 

[brooklynwx99]

1 hour ago, griteater said:

Latest Euro Seasonal is in for Aug 1...

 

3.4 Plume is warmer this run -> and Super El Nino is forecasted

 

Nino 1.2 is also warmer this run

 

Nino SST footprint for Dec-Feb looks a lot like 2015-2016.  Super Nino that is basin wide

 

Precipitation for Dec-Feb has bulge at the Dateline / Gulf of Mexico / East Coast

 

500mb for Dec-Feb has +PNA / -AO / -NAO

 

Surface for Dec-Feb has Aleutian Low / Low pressure along E Coast

 

Indices show healthy +PNA / -NAO for Jan-Feb

 

 

i’m sure it has the more central based forcing that the CanSIPS has. they both look very similar in terms of the 500mb presentation 

again, the WPAC warm pool could be playing a part there. can’t think of a another explanation for that 

[snowman19]

Latest Euro Seasonal is in for Aug 1...
 
3.4 Plume is warmer this run -> and Super El Nino is forecasted

 
Nino 1.2 is also warmer this run

 
Nino SST footprint for Dec-Feb looks a lot like 2015-2016.  Super Nino that is basin wide

 
Precipitation for Dec-Feb has bulge at the Dateline / Gulf of Mexico / East Coast

 
500mb for Dec-Feb has +PNA / -AO / -NAO

 
Surface for Dec-Feb has Aleutian Low / Low pressure along E Coast

 
Indices show healthy +PNA / -NAO for Jan-Feb

 

 

It’s actually notably warmer than the last run, has a solid super peak (looks around +2.3C) in December

[brooklynwx99]

16 minutes ago, George001 said:

ONI isn’t the only relevant index to be fair, MEI is also useful as well. However, nino strong enough to get to a super peak of +2.2 is going to have a really high MEO, RONI, whatever index you want to use value as well. Regardless, it doesn’t really make sense to favor a cold and snowy winter in the east with a nino this strong. 

idk, you can use the MEI instead to show that this Nino isn’t going to have the same bite as other Ninos in the past with that WPAC warm pool in place. this one isn’t even close to past super Ninos. it makes sense given the weaker gradient and weaker circulations 

not sure why that’s even being argued in this thread 

[snowman19]

idk, you can use the MEI instead to show that this Nino isn’t going to have the same bite as other Ninos in the past with that WPAC warm pool in place. this one isn’t even close to past super Ninos. it makes sense given the weaker gradient and weaker circulations 
not sure why that’s even being argued in this thread 

How do you or anyone else for that matter know exactly what the WPAC is going to look come December and thereafter? Besides the Nino, the developing +IOD is also going to alter the WPAC SSTs and forcing. To say that if this Nino becomes super (looks very likely now) that it’s definitely not going to have the same bite or behave as other past super El Niños this winter is disingenuous at best. Unless some people are psychic and clairvoyant and know exactly what is going to happen 4, 5, 6, 7 months from now. It’s the beginning of August and things can and will change, possibly dramatically

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, griteater said:

Latest Euro Seasonal is in for Aug 1...

 

3.4 Plume is warmer this run -> and Super El Nino is forecasted

 

Nino 1.2 is also warmer this run

 

Nino SST footprint for Dec-Feb looks a lot like 2015-2016.  Super Nino that is basin wide

 

Precipitation for Dec-Feb has bulge at the Dateline / Gulf of Mexico / East Coast

 

500mb for Dec-Feb has +PNA / -AO / -NAO

 

Surface for Dec-Feb has Aleutian Low / Low pressure along E Coast

 

Indices show healthy +PNA / -NAO for Jan-Feb

 

 

Indeed:

1. ONI peak has risen ~0.2 from +2.17 NDJ prior run to ~+2.37 NDJ this run

2. 1+2 has risen from mid +2s to high +2s Nov-Dec.

[snowman19]

Indeed:
1. ONI peak has risen ~0.2 from +2.17 NDJ prior run to ~+2.37 NDJ this run
2. 1+2 has risen from mid +2s to high +2s Nov-Dec.

I can absolutely see a +2.3C peak come December, been saying that for awhile now. Completely believable. Also, no surprise that it’s showing region 1+2 staying close to +3C through December. The subsurface and positive (Bjerknes) feedback going on there are going to keep that ridiculous warmth going

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Indeed:

1. ONI peak has risen ~0.2 from +2.17 NDJ prior run to ~+2.37 NDJ this run

2. 1+2 has risen from mid +2s to high +2s Nov-Dec.

RE: Euro August run
-Nino 3 for NDJ has risen from ~+2.45 last month to ~+2.75 this run

-Nino 4 for NDJ has risen from ~+1.6 last month to ~+1.8 this month

- For DJF on new run, here are estimates:

1+2: +2.4

3:     +2.65

3.4:  +2.3

4:     +1.8

 My guess is that most or all of these will verify a bit cooler due to warm bias. Regardless, chances of a super ONI peak have increased a little based on increases in Euro (now ~+2.37) and CFS (now ~+2.12) along with BoM not backing down from its upper +2s prog. But with 3.4 still rising only sluggishly recently (still ~+1.1 OISST and ERSST likely even a little cooler) and considering Euro warm bias along with OHC cooling to only +0.75, I'm continuing predicting only a strong ERSST based ONI peak as of now. I'm ~+1.8.

[brooklynwx99]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

How do you or anyone else for that matter know exactly what the WPAC is going to look come December and thereafter? Besides the Nino, the developing +IOD is also going to alter the WPAC SSTs and forcing. To say that if this Nino becomes super (looks very likely now) that it’s definitely not going to have the same bite or behave as other past super El Niños this winter is disingenuous at best. Unless some people are psychic and clairvoyant and know exactly what is going to happen 4, 5, 6, 7 months from now. It’s the beginning of August and things can and will change, possibly dramatically

i don’t think it’s disingenuous at all. it hasn’t behaved like one in the past whatsoever. why would it later on? perhaps, but I’m not banking on that

and it’s not for no reason. every other super Nino had that SST dipole with colder water in the WPAC. this one doesn’t, and it will have an impact

[snowman19]

i don’t think it’s disingenuous at all. it hasn’t behaved like one in the past whatsoever. why would it later on? perhaps, but I’m not banking on that
and it’s not for no reason. every other super Nino had that SST dipole with colder water in the WPAC. this one doesn’t, and it will have an impact

IMO the +IOD alters the WPAC. I can buy a -AO/-NAO. Ok, fine. But if there’s actually a +2.3C super Nino, I have a very hard time believing a PAC like that…-EPO/-WPO/+PNA with a super Nino in place? I think not. Strong/Super El Nino very strongly favors a +EPO with a well east displaced Aleutian Low and a raging, epic STJ crashing into the west coast isn’t going to allow a +PNA to sustain itself, as soon as one (+PNA) pops up, it’s going to get knocked right back down by the STJ/El Nino