El Nino 2023-2024

[GaWx]

14 minutes ago, roardog said:

Do you have the link to the OISST daily readings? Thanks.

https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/ssta_graph_nino12.png

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

@brooklynwx99  CanSIPs on the free TT doesn't have 200 mb velocity potential.  At least I can't find it.  Do you have ASO and/or A, S, O plots.

Down here DJF and ENSO is the difference between a mild, dry winter and a cool rainy winter.  Ninas are warmer, on average, but all the severe cold snaps (low temps 20F and colder) seem to happen in Nina years.

[brooklynwx99]

9 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

@brooklynwx99  CanSIPs on the free TT doesn't have 200 mb velocity potential.  At least I can't find it.  Do you have ASO and/or A, S, O plots.

Down here DJF and ENSO is the difference between a mild, dry winter and a cool rainy winter.  Ninas are warmer, on average, but all the severe cold snaps (low temps 20F and colder) seem to happen in Nina years.

[Terpeast]

27 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

Have we had a nino with a split forcing scenario before?

[brooklynwx99]

5 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Have we had a nino with a split forcing scenario before?

not sure. this is for the fall... the dateline forcing becomes dominant and the forcing in the EPAC moves into the Gulf by winter

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

not sure. this is for the fall... the dateline forcing becomes dominant and the forcing in the EPAC moves into the Gulf by winter

Makes sense

[Yanksfan]

4 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the forcing on the CanSIPS is unprecedented with a Nino that strong. tough to say what'll happen this winter but I like what I'm seeing

the forcing is really all that matters... in previous super Ninos, the forcing is much closer to 150W. I'm excluding 97-98 since it was SO east based. also including 1991-92 since it was basin-wide and peaked at 1.7C. 1991-92 is the best analog out of all years in the first composite. one of the best of all for this winter, IMO

the CanSIPS (and last month's C3S, which is every seasonal in an ensemble) has it much closer to the dateline than those winters. the new CanSIPS is even west of those years! it's much more comparable to a composite of 09-10, 02-03, 86-87, and 57-58. weenie years, but still. those years are all viable analogs with forcing that looks like this

That’s a snow weenie’s wet dream, but I’ll take the conservative approach. If the models still shows dateline forcing with a strong Nino by the time October rolls around then it’ll get my attention. As of now from my perspective it’s like looking at a blizzard on the GFS at hr 240.

[griteater]

2 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Have we had a nino with a split forcing scenario before?

 

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

not sure. this is for the fall... the dateline forcing becomes dominant and the forcing in the EPAC moves into the Gulf by winter

In scanning thru some VP images, it seems like the VP that sets up in the Sep-Nov timeframe tends to throw out some clues in terms of how things will go in the winter.

The El Nino years when the Sep-Nov -VP is either heavy in the E Pacific or extends from the E Pacific into S America, the resulting winter pattern has more of an east-based look with Aleutian Low pressure farther east and northern conus and S Canada ridging.  See 91-92 and 94-95 (same ideas for 15-16, but image not shown)

The El Nino years when the Sep-Nov -VP is weaker in the E Pacific and positive in S America, the resulting winter pattern has more of a west-based look with Aleutian Low pressure farther west and ridging into AK and W Canada.  See 02-03 and 09-10 (same ideas for 14-15, but image not shown)

Note that the VP pattern among the 4 years in the winter isn't as different as it is in the fall (2 camps seen in the fall)

 

 

 

[so_whats_happening]

11 hours ago, snowman19 said:

If the El Nino actually goes super, good luck sustaining a +PNA this winter. If that happens, STJ is going to be absolutely roaring and juiced to hell and is going to blast right through any +PNA pop and knock it right down. It would also support +EPO because the Aleutian low gets displaced well east of its normal position for weak and moderate Ninos. Can you still get a -NAO/-AO? Sure. 97-98 actually had a -NAO/-NAM but all it did was bring down and trap PAC maritime air

Here are two sites to help explain stuff with pictures

Daily reconstruction: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/composites/day/

Monthly/ Seasonal: https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl

[raindancewx]

July subsurface for 100-180W fell back to +1.0 from 1.4 in June. Pretty major drop actually. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

I've been wondering how the hell we pulled off a record hot month here, but sure enough, you had a big drop off in 1980 too:

7/1980 ABQ: 99.1F (mean high)

7/2023 ABQ: 99.0F (mean high)

June/July 1980:  +1.17 / +0.27

June/July 2023:  +1.40 / +1.02

Since 1979, 1980 & 2023 are the only years in the +1 to +1.5 range that had major 100-180w subsurface heat content drops June-July. Jun-Jul 1997 did too, but really, it's less of a shock. The 1997 fall off is a ~17% loss in subsurface heat, but 1980 and 2023 were much larger on a percentage basis.

One of the other great heat wave years globally, 2003, also had a huge loss in subsurface heat from July to August.

We're still in a weird spot for timing of developing events so the subsurface is volatile. 1982, 1989, and 2012 all have very similar subsurface readings in July, and the winters are...just a wee bit different.

This is a decent blend for May-July subsurface conditions - not really a match v. models for August though.

1.11 / 1.40 / 1.02   2023

2.01 / 2.25 / 1.83  1997
2.01 / 2.25 / 1.83  1997
2.01 / 2.25 / 1.83  1997
0.07 / 0.24 / 0.13  2019
0.07 / 0.24 / 0.13  2019
0.88 / 0.86 / 0.81  2018
--------------------------
1.18 / 1.35 / 1.09  Blend

[CustomWX]

I figured you all would like to see a more clear-cut difference between the more east and west based El Nino events. Below is a statistical correlation graphic that determines relationships between two variables. In this case, geopotential height and ENSO regions (1+2, 3, 3.4, 4). The red indicates there is a direct relationship between ENSO (as El Nino strengthens, so does geopotential height). The purple/blue is an inverse relationship (as El Nino strengthens, geopotential height falls). 

There is a clear west trend in the heights as the ENSO regions move west. The highest heights to go from the Hudson Bay to the Pacific Northwest, the 50/50 low is strengthened closer to the coast as El Nino is centered further west. 

Same trend with surface temperatures. Note that I changed it to regression here, which is a linear fit.

I just think its interesting to actually see why "modoki" El Ninos are more favorable. Link to the site: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 hours ago, griteater said:

 

In scanning thru some VP images, it seems like the VP that sets up in the Sep-Nov timeframe tends to throw out some clues in terms of how things will go in the winter.

The El Nino years when the Sep-Nov -VP is either heavy in the E Pacific or extends from the E Pacific into S America, the resulting winter pattern has more of an east-based look with Aleutian Low pressure farther east and northern conus and S Canada ridging.  See 91-92 and 94-95 (same ideas for 15-16, but image not shown)

The El Nino years when the Sep-Nov -VP is weaker in the E Pacific and positive in S America, the resulting winter pattern has more of a west-based look with Aleutian Low pressure farther west and ridging into AK and W Canada.  See 02-03 and 09-10 (same ideas for 14-15, but image not shown)

Note that the VP pattern among the 4 years in the winter isn't as different as it is in the fall (2 camps seen in the fall)

 

 

 

Great post...will def. keep this in mind come fall.

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the forcing on the CanSIPS is unprecedented with a Nino that strong. tough to say what'll happen this winter but I like what I'm seeing

the forcing is really all that matters... in previous super Ninos, the forcing is much closer to 150W. I'm excluding 97-98 since it was SO east based. also including 1991-92 since it was basin-wide and peaked at 1.7C. 1991-92 is the best analog out of all years in the first composite. one of the best of all for this winter, IMO

the CanSIPS (and last month's C3S, which is every seasonal in an ensemble) has it much closer to the dateline than those winters. the new CanSIPS is even west of those years! it's much more comparable to a composite of 09-10, 02-03, 86-87, and 57-58. weenie years, but still. those years are all viable analogs with forcing that looks like this

Agree RE 91-92..match in every aspect...I feel like Pinatubo is was doomed that winter with a very intense PV....while I doubt as dramatic an impact this season, it is on the table.

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 hours ago, griteater said:

Sharing some El Nino SST Base Charts that I've put together / updated.

The charts are based on the E Pattern vs C Pattern from this paper from Takahashi et al. - ENSO regimes: Reinterpreting the canonical and Modoki El Nino 

Data for the charts comes from this link: Monthly E and C Indices

 

First chart contains Super and Strong El Ninos since 1950:

 

2nd chart is for Super and Strong El Ninos prior to 1950:

 

3rd chart contains my view on the best matches to the current year solely with respect to El Nino SST strength and base:

 

For reference, this chart contains all Moderate El Ninos since 1950:

 

Lastly, here are the 2 most extreme values on opposite ends of the spectrum from the charts of Super / Strong / Moderate El Ninos:

Thanks for this....JMA doesn't go back as far as this data. Will definitely be borrowing this data and referencing you, of course.

1926-27, 1919-20, 1940-1941, 1957-1958 and 1965-1966...all great winters.

[40/70 Benchmark]

The main concerns if you are looking for a good winter in the NE are 1994, 1972 and 1991. I feel like 1972 was just some bad luck, as the pattern wasn't as horrific as the result....but nonetheless, the PV did us in on both occasions. I have been saying it all spring and summer....the polar domain will decide this winter. I don't feel the Pacific will present a strong enough signal one way or another.

If we can avoid a death star of a PV, then we should be okay. My primary concern is the volcano, as i feel strongly that is did us in with respect to both 1991 and 1994....New England did well in between because the shape, size and orientation of the PV, not unlike 2007-2008 (I realize it was la nina, just referencing it due to the PV). But that is a precarious path to take in a bonafide el nino...those (92-93 and 93-94) were warm neutral years. We will need to avoid a strong PV in this el nino.

[snowman19]

 Whereas a week ago Nino 1+2 fell to +2.9 from a +3.5 peak six days earlier, it has risen back to +3.3 today (OISST).

The warmth in regions 1+2 and 3 is self-sustaining now. There’s a positive feedback (Bjerknes) loop in those regions now, it just keeps getting reinforced. It’s a classic Eastern Pacific/“E-pattern” Nino

[snowman19]

18 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the forcing on the CanSIPS is unprecedented with a Nino that strong. tough to say what'll happen this winter but I like what I'm seeing

the forcing is really all that matters... in previous super Ninos, the forcing is much closer to 150W. I'm excluding 97-98 since it was SO east based. also including 1991-92 since it was basin-wide and peaked at 1.7C. 1991-92 is the best analog out of all years in the first composite. one of the best of all for this winter, IMO

the CanSIPS (and last month's C3S, which is every seasonal in an ensemble) has it much closer to the dateline than those winters. the new CanSIPS is even west of those years! it's much more comparable to a composite of 09-10, 02-03, 86-87, and 57-58. weenie years, but still. those years are all viable analogs with forcing that looks like this

Obviously it can change between now and December, but as of today, this is a classic Eastern Pacific/“E-pattern” El Niño and it has been right from the start

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Obviously it can change between now and December, but as of today, this is a classic Eastern Pacific/“E-pattern” El Niño and it has been right from the start

Not with respect to the forcing, which is all that matters. Perhaps that changes as it couples more, but not as of yet. Most guidance doesn't forecast the forcing to change. We'll see.

[Maestrobjwa]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Agree RE 91-92..match in every aspect...I feel like Pinatubo is was doomed that winter with a very intense PV....while I doubt as dramatic an impact this season, it is on the table.

And then ya wonder whether the fact that this time it was  unprecedented water vapor vs. the usual ash, sulfur (or whatever proper term is) will cause a different effect.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

34 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

And then ya wonder whether the fact that this time it was  unprecedented water vapor vs. the usual ash, sulfur (or whatever proper term is) will cause a different effect.

It seems like this year was an acceleration of the trend of warming.  The Tonga eruption last year put an estimated 55 million tons of water vapor, a greenhouse gas, into the stratosphere.  Early discussions just how the gradual warming of the last 30 years might shift some expected ENSO response/coupling, and then add in a volcano putting a greenhouse gas into the stratosphere, and not fine ash and sulfur dioxide which reflect radiation back into space.  Mentioned often in this thread, not many analogs for a strong or super Nino with much above normal Atlantic temps.

[snowman19]

Not with respect to the forcing, which is all that matters. Perhaps that changes as it couples more, but not as of yet. Most guidance doesn't forecast the forcing to change. We'll see.

Let’s see where the forcing is come November

[so_whats_happening]

Certainly an interesting subsurface progression

Edit had to fix the animation and added in the temp profile as well.

 

[snowman19]

Certainly an interesting subsurface progression

All the real major subsurface warmth is under 1+2, 3 and the eastern part of 3.4

[so_whats_happening]

25 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Certainly an interesting subsurface progression

Edit had to fix the animation and added in the temp profile as well.

 

It does look as though a KW may be forming around 140E region this makes sense with the westerlies running around the region (though weak). With what looks like the thermocline lifting a bit in the EPAC, I wonder if a KW does form if it now impacts more into 3.4/4 region. GFS seems to be trying to show a weakening of trades from about 120-130W to 160W so essentially into 3.4 region. Does 1+2 become cutoff as we move forward?

Should be an interesting month to watch this.

[40/70 Benchmark]

39 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Let’s see where the forcing is come November

Yes. Totally agree.

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

And then ya wonder whether the fact that this time it was  unprecedented water vapor vs. the usual ash, sulfur (or whatever proper term is) will cause a different effect.

This is what I am unsure of....last year it didn't cause a very strong PV, but you wonder if it took some time to fully infiltrate the atmosphere.

[GaWx]

Today's Nino 3.4 OISST anomaly dropped to only +1.072, which is the lowest daily in two weeks and is significantly cooler than the +1.255 of July 25th.

 

[raindancewx]

Still looks like we're on target for a ~2.0C warm up in Nino 3.4 year/year in Dec-Feb. Rare historically for single year warms up at that magnitude. It's a good list of years for me: 1957-58, 1965-66, 1972-73, 1976-77, 1982-83, 1997-98, 2009-10.

I updated my statistical testing today. Albuquerque winter (DJF) highs respond very strongly (0.3 r-squared) to y/y changes in Nino 3.4. Spring is a strong response too (0.22 r-squared).

But when you look at the month by month data, it's really only December and April that respond in a statistically significant way (p<0.05). I was surprised to see how many cold Decembers we have following hot July El Nino years. R-squared for 25 El Ninos by y/y change is about 0.34 in December, for highs locally - a relationship that would occur by chance like 0.2% of the time.

If we finish with a very dry (under 50% of normal) of July-Sept precipitation locally, the favored subsequent wet periods locally are October & April, with an all-or-nothing tendency for both November & March.

The look for the big "warm up" El Nino years is essentially the opposite of now, where it has been very hot in the blue area and cold in the yellow area. But it does match as the flip of the +PDO, -ENSO years I've looked at. It's the type of look I expect for winter overall, though I am still refining details.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Still looks like we're on target for a ~2.0C warm up in Nino 3.4 year/year in Dec-Feb. Rare historically for single year warms up at that magnitude. It's a good list of years for me: 1957-58, 1965-66, 1972-73, 1976-77, 1982-83, 1997-98, 2009-10.

I updated my statistical testing today. Albuquerque winter (DJF) highs respond very strongly (0.3 r-squared) to y/y changes in Nino 3.4. Spring is a strong response too (0.22 r-squared).

But when you look at the month by month data, it's really only December and April that respond in a statistically significant way (p<0.05). I was surprised to see how many cold Decembers we have following hot July El Nino years. R-squared for 25 El Ninos by y/y change is about 0.34 in December, for highs locally - a relationship that would occur by chance like 0.2% of the time.

If we finish with a very dry (under 50% of normal) of July-Sept precipitation locally, the favored subsequent wet periods locally are October & April, with an all-or-nothing tendency for both November & March.

The look for the big "warm up" El Nino years is essentially the opposite of now, where it has been very hot in the blue area and cold in the yellow area. But it does match as the flip of the +PDO, -ENSO years I've looked at. It's the type of look I expect for winter overall, though I am still refining details.

No complaints.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

41 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We’ll see if the warmest SSTs moving near the Dateline can shift the forcing a little further east close to what we would expect for and El Niño this time of year. But the big westward lean to the forcing this July was a first for and El Niño. 

 

 

This is exactly why I am befuddled by the "classic east-based el nino" comments. Doesn't mean it will end up favorable for eastern US winter enthusiasts, but it is what it is....aside from the SST configuration, that statement is factually incorrect.