El Nino 2023-2024

[snowman19]

Yall posted the wrong tweet about the new CANSIPS
 

What does the PAC side look like?

[griteater]

29 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

What does the PAC side look like?

I’d say the sfc pressure pattern would imply neutral or negative PNA for Jan, +PNA for Feb & Mar 

[griteater]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The new CANSIPS now has a super El Niño:

The black box here is what the models have been missing out at range over the last few months.  A push to +2.0 in Nino 3.4 would make some sense if the westerly anoms are persistent like this.  Maybe things move in that direction as we work into Fall, but I'd be hesitant to count on this strong of a flip.

[brooklynwx99]

4 hours ago, griteater said:

Yall posted the wrong tweet about the new CANSIPS

 

down for a super Nino if it looks like this. holy shit

[brooklynwx99]

although the new CanSIPS is stronger and pushes into super Nino territory, the forcing is stronger and remains along the dateline. just juices the STJ further and strengthens the blocking. this would basically be a Modoki on steroids thanks to the WPAC warm pool. although years like 1972 and 1991 are in the cards, this remains highly encouraging

[raindancewx]

Even with that look, most of the Southern US isn't cold. I don't know how to explain it but the Canadian looks off to me. Should be wetter with that look too. Canadian does have a -PDO still for winter. The warm tongue east of Japan remains very pronounced, and continues to warm on Tropical Tidbits week after week. Looking back, the El Ninos with -PDO or neutral PDO conditions in winter tend to be sandwiched between La Ninas / cold Neutrals. I don't really expect this to be a double El Nino, so that makes sense to me (we've just had two in an SST sense: 2018-19/2019-20, and 2014-15/2015-16, and they aren't real common).

This event is going to peak and weaken pretty early. If that's the case, the patterns will do weird shit as ENSO weakens if the weakening is uneven. The patterns late winter and beyond will behave erratically depending on what weakens where, relative to everything else. The subsurface in this event has already shown that it can weaken without immediately limiting the surface. July cooled all month as an example. El Nino marches on at the surface.

March is a good candidate for a particularly large spread between SSTs and the subsurface like early 1973 or 1988 or 2005. So that remains my pick for a particularly wacky month.

Saw this making the rounds as well -

[so_whats_happening]

55 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

Even with that look, most of the Southern US isn't cold. I don't know how to explain it but the Canadian looks off to me. Should be wetter with that look too. Canadian does have a -PDO still for winter. The warm tongue east of Japan remains very pronounced, and continues to warm on Tropical Tidbits week after week. Looking back, the El Ninos with -PDO or neutral PDO conditions in winter tend to be sandwiched between La Ninas / cold Neutrals. I don't really expect this to be a double El Nino, so that makes sense to me (we've just had two in an SST sense: 2018-19/2019-20, and 2014-15/2015-16, and they aren't real common).

This event is going to peak and weaken pretty early. If that's the case, the patterns will do weird shit as ENSO weakens if the weakening is uneven. The patterns late winter and beyond will behave erratically depending on what weakens where, relative to everything else. The subsurface in this event has already shown that it can weaken without immediately limiting the surface. July cooled all month as an example. El Nino marches on at the surface.

March is a good candidate for a particularly large spread between SSTs and the subsurface like early 1973 or 1988 or 2005. So that remains my pick for a particularly wacky month.

Saw this making the rounds as well -

I agree on the PDO while weakening from its near record levels im not sure we go positive by fall/winter, maybe more neutral if not cool neutral (if that is a thing). As for double Nino im not so sure yet while rather unprecedented, like having two super ninos in a 10 year time span (not saying this will be a super nino, but in that off chance it squeaks up that high), it is possible considering the lack of cooling in the WPAC subsurface. Until that starts to arise I feel that option can not be thrown out just yet.

Has the rapid increase in WV in the stratosphere helped cool the stratosphere globally? I feel it would do the opposite and allow for warming to occur. Maybe this could help explain the significantly warmer troposphere temps globally along with the ongoing El Nino rise, just postulating as of now.

[brooklynwx99]

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

Even with that look, most of the Southern US isn't cold. I don't know how to explain it but the Canadian looks off to me. Should be wetter with that look too. Canadian does have a -PDO still for winter. The warm tongue east of Japan remains very pronounced, and continues to warm on Tropical Tidbits week after week. Looking back, the El Ninos with -PDO or neutral PDO conditions in winter tend to be sandwiched between La Ninas / cold Neutrals. I don't really expect this to be a double El Nino, so that makes sense to me (we've just had two in an SST sense: 2018-19/2019-20, and 2014-15/2015-16, and they aren't real common).

This event is going to peak and weaken pretty early. If that's the case, the patterns will do weird shit as ENSO weakens if the weakening is uneven. The patterns late winter and beyond will behave erratically depending on what weakens where, relative to everything else. The subsurface in this event has already shown that it can weaken without immediately limiting the surface. July cooled all month as an example. El Nino marches on at the surface.

March is a good candidate for a particularly large spread between SSTs and the subsurface like early 1973 or 1988 or 2005. So that remains my pick for a particularly wacky month.

Saw this making the rounds as well -

if we’re speaking verbatim, the SE US has a pretty pronounced cold anomaly for Jan-Mar, Feb especially

[brooklynwx99]

@snowman19 you breathlessly reposted some tweet that the CanSIPS had a super Nino (first time you’ve posted about it too, wonder why) and now that it looks good for the winter you’re annoyed and weenie-ing every post about it lmao

something tells me you were expecting it to look worse

[brooklynwx99]

also, I have literally said that years like 1982 and 1991 are a possibility, so leave the weenie accusations on the table. i am well aware of those possible outcomes

[George001]

5 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

if we’re speaking verbatim, the SE US has a pretty pronounced cold anomaly for Jan-Mar, Feb especially

I would have expected the warmth to be much more widespread with El Niño growing that strong.

[snowman19]

BOM’s August 1st update has the El Niño peaking at +2.2C in December. Has the +IOD peaking at +1.2C in October then slowly falling: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/index.shtml

[roardog]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

BOM’s August 1st update has the El Niño peaking at +2.2C in December. Has the +IOD peaking at +1.2C in October then slowly falling: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/index.shtml

It looks like it’s around 2.9 peak on the graph.

[snowman19]

It looks like it’s around 2.9 peak on the graph.

Look at the international average of models for December in their disco. They have it at +2.2C in December. The POAMA is overdone

[snowman19]

9 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

@snowman19 you breathlessly reposted some tweet that the CanSIPS had a super Nino (first time you’ve posted about it too, wonder why) and now that it looks good for the winter you’re annoyed and weenie-ing every post about it lmao

something tells me you were expecting it to look worse

If the El Nino actually goes super, good luck sustaining a +PNA this winter. If that happens, STJ is going to be absolutely roaring and juiced to hell and is going to blast right through any +PNA pop and knock it right down. It would also support +EPO because the Aleutian low gets displaced well east of its normal position for weak and moderate Ninos. Can you still get a -NAO/-AO? Sure. 97-98 actually had a -NAO/-NAM but all it did was bring down and trap PAC maritime air

[roardog]

12 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Look at the international average of models for December in their disco. They have it at +2.2C in December. The POAMA is overdone

You were talking about the mean. I thought you were saying their model had a 2.2 peak. 

[brooklynwx99]

24 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If the El Nino actually goes super, good luck sustaining a +PNA this winter. If that happens, STJ is going to be absolutely roaring and juiced to hell and is going to blast right through any +PNA pop and knock it right down. It would also support +EPO because the Aleutian low gets displaced well east of its normal position for weak and moderate Ninos. Can you still get a -NAO/-AO? Sure. 97-98 actually had a -NAO/-NAM but all it did was bring down and trap PAC maritime air

the odd thing about this winter is that the forcing may still be displaced west of its normal strong to super Nino position due to the WPAC warm pool, leading to a traditional Aleutian low and +PNA/-EPO with a strong STJ cutting underneath

will the forcing actually end up there? not sure, but it makes sense for that warm pool to drag things west. we’ve been seeing it already this summer 

[snowman19]

the odd thing about this winter is that the forcing may still be displaced west of its normal strong to super Nino position due to the WPAC warm pool, leading to a traditional Aleutian low and +PNA/-EPO with a strong STJ cutting underneath
will the forcing actually end up there? not sure, but it makes sense for that warm pool to drag things west. we’ve been seeing it already this summer 

Anything is possible. Let’s see where the main tropical convective forcing/Nino standing wave is located come November when the different feedbacks kick in

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

BOM’s August 1st update has the El Niño peaking at +2.2C in December. Has the +IOD peaking at +1.2C in October then slowly falling: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/index.shtml

Interestingly, they still haven't declared El Niño and still only have it as likely due to lack of atmospheric response so far:

"El Niño AlertLA NIÑA ALERT WATCH INACTIVE WATCH ALERT EL NIÑO 

ENSO Outlook

The Bureau's El Niño Alert continues, with El Niño development considered likely in the coming weeks, despite the current lack of atmospheric response."

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Interestingly, they still haven't declared El Niño and still only have it as likely due to lack of atmospheric response so far:

"El Niño AlertLA NIÑA ALERT WATCH INACTIVE WATCH ALERT EL NIÑO 

ENSO Outlook

The Bureau's El Niño Alert continues, with El Niño development considered likely in the coming weeks, despite the current lack of atmospheric response."

Doesn't surprise me, because these things take time. 

La Nina atmospheric state doesn't suddenly turn El Nino on a dime any more than an oil tanker can.

[snowman19]

Interestingly, they still haven't declared El Niño and still only have it as likely due to lack of atmospheric response so far:
"El Niño AlertLA NIÑA ALERT WATCH INACTIVE WATCH ALERT EL NIÑO 
ENSO Outlook
The Bureau's El Niño Alert continues, with El Niño development considered likely in the coming weeks, despite the current lack of atmospheric response."

The lag has to kick in. We just had basically 4 years of a La Niña state

[GaWx]

46 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Doesn't surprise me, because these things take time. 

La Nina atmospheric state doesn't suddenly turn El Nino on a dime any more than an oil tanker can.

 

31 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The lag has to kick in. We just had basically 4 years of a La Niña state

 Consistent with the lack of El Niño atmospheric state, the SOI has averaged pretty neutral the last two months with -3 after the strongly -SOI (-15) of May.

 Also, check this out. The OHC was still dropping in the new update and was below +0.75 in late July per the latest graph after having peaked above +1.3 in mid June though it still has plenty of time to potentially come back up to new highs later this year:

[so_whats_happening]

Got a chance to clean out old files on my comp the other weekend and just took a look at the super nino of 2015/16 data I had saved, what little I did save. Here is a VP anomaly chart the dates on the left range from Jul 5th to about end of September same setup as the one for this year scale wise. You can see the standing wave that was able to form and allow for -VP to move east and stay east. Unfortunately I do not have info saved for the time stamp before this in this format. I do have the later portion though as it went into winter, you can see how the standing wave breaks down mid to late October.

[griteater]

Sharing some El Nino SST Base Charts that I've put together / updated.

The charts are based on the E Pattern vs C Pattern from this paper from Takahashi et al. - ENSO regimes: Reinterpreting the canonical and Modoki El Nino 

Data for the charts comes from this link: Monthly E and C Indices

 

First chart contains Super and Strong El Ninos since 1950:

 

2nd chart is for Super and Strong El Ninos prior to 1950:

 

3rd chart contains my view on the best matches to the current year solely with respect to El Nino SST strength and base:

 

For reference, this chart contains all Moderate El Ninos since 1950:

 

Lastly, here are the 2 most extreme values on opposite ends of the spectrum from the charts of Super / Strong / Moderate El Ninos:

[so_whats_happening]

Here are 850 wind anoms (just noticed the current map, the bottom one, cuts off at 120E but the old one goes to 60E so don't let that fool you)

[so_whats_happening]

Lastly lets see how this one turns out but thought the evolution was cool. Again wish I had saved prior times but unfortunately during that time I was without a home computer (friend destroyed my mac) and just using the work comp and a flash drive. Grabbed everything I could onto a flash drive before that comp was wiped...

[snowman19]

[GaWx]

On 7/31/2023 at 8:44 AM, GaWx said:

 In today's release, Nino 1+2 fell rather sharply from +3.5 in the prior one to +3.0. The daily OISST graph suggested today would show +3.0. That same graph is suggesting the sharp fall has ceased at least for now as the lowest day was six days ago at +2.9 and yesterday's was back up some to +3.0. Nino 3.4 rose as expected per the OISST graph from +1.1 to +1.2. Regions 3 (+1.7) and 4 (+0.8) were not surprisingly unchanged.

 Whereas a week ago Nino 1+2 fell to +2.9 from a +3.5 peak six days earlier, it has risen back to +3.3 today (OISST).

[brooklynwx99]

the forcing on the CanSIPS is unprecedented with a Nino that strong. tough to say what'll happen this winter but I like what I'm seeing

the forcing is really all that matters... in previous super Ninos, the forcing is much closer to 150W. I'm excluding 97-98 since it was SO east based. also including 1991-92 since it was basin-wide and peaked at 1.7C. 1991-92 is the best analog out of all years in the first composite. one of the best of all for this winter, IMO

the CanSIPS (and last month's C3S, which is every seasonal in an ensemble) has it much closer to the dateline than those winters. the new CanSIPS is even west of those years! it's much more comparable to a composite of 09-10, 02-03, 86-87, and 57-58. weenie years, but still. those years are all viable analogs with forcing that looks like this

[roardog]

10 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Whereas a week ago Nino 1+2 fell to +2.9 from a +3.5 peak six days earlier, it has risen back to +3.3 today (OISST).

Do you have the link to the OISST daily readings? Thanks.