El Nino 2023-2024

[Terpeast]

48 minutes ago, roardog said:

I’ll believe all of this when I see it happen this year. We’ve been reading since Spring about how all of this will happen by June then by July and now by August. 

If we extrapolate two linear trend lines, one from may 1 and another from june 16, and assume a november peak, we’ll top out at 1.8-1.9. 

I’ll go conservative and predict a 1.6-1.7 OND peak.

[thunderbolt]

[thunderbolt]

2 minutes ago, thunderbolt said:

Looks like we could put a fork in region 1/2 all downhill from here

[thunderbolt]

For those who are predicting this was going to be a eastbase come December might reconsider their thoughts

[thunderbolt]

[snowman19]

3 minutes ago, thunderbolt said:

You are a broken record. You have been saying this literally since March. 5 months now. Boy who cried wolf 

[snowman19]

13 minutes ago, thunderbolt said:

Looks like we could put a fork in region 1/2 all downhill from here

You have absolutely no idea what you’re talking about. Please stop. The subsurface just under regions 1+2 and 3 is over +6C. You have been saying these regions are going to fall apart since the end of March and posting the wretched CFS over and over. 5 months in a row now. Give it up. You’re wishcasting

[thunderbolt]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

You have absolutely no idea what you’re talking about. Please stop. The subsurface just under regions 1+2 and 3 is over +6C. You have been saying these regions are going to fall apart since the end of March and posting the wretched CFS over and over. 5 months in a row now. Give it up. You’re wishcasting

Go back into your corner

[thunderbolt]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

You have absolutely no idea what you’re talking about. Please stop. The subsurface just under regions 1+2 and 3 is over +6C. You have been saying these regions are going to fall apart since the end of March and posting the wretched CFS over and over. 5 months in a row now. Give it up. You’re wishcasting

It’s gonna be OK maybe one of your predictions will come to fruition

[Terpeast]

58 minutes ago, thunderbolt said:

It’s gonna be OK maybe one of your predictions will come to fruition

Yep, broken clock

[HailMan06]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

You are a broken record. You have been saying this literally since March. 5 months now. Boy who cried wolf 

Pot calling the kettle black

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Yep, broken clock

 There have been at a minimum these two broken clocks modelwise:

1. BoA in 3.4 has been way too warm this summer, especially in July when it had many runs of upper +1s as I posted about.

2. CFS has been equally bad with 1+2 considering these way too cool predictions for it since at least March 19th:

Mar 19: stays below +1.75

Apr 11: stays below +2.5

May 2: stays below +2.6

 

June 5: stays below +2.25

 

June 21: stays below +2.7

 Fool me many times, shame on me as regards BoA 3.4. That's been emphasized many times.

 But fool me many times shame on me regarding the CFS 1+2, too. So, although even much better models such as the Euro all agree that 1+2 either has already maxed or will by Sept at the latest, none have the cliff-dive of the recent CFS, which drops it to a mere +1.2 in November. The Euro, Meteo-France, JMA, and UK all keep Nov from +1.75 to +2.8. Thus, I'd say that the CFS' idea of a cliff-dive in 1+2 is likely way overdone. I think ~+2+ is more realistic.

 Aside: Also, keep in mind that the CFS was the worst in predicting a moderate MJO phase 5 for now on many runs until 10 days ago.

[Typhoon Tip]

7 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Gfs is sniffing out something in a week, wwb wise. It seems like maybe this a response from the -SOI pattern we just had. We saw one similarly back at the end of may from those rather low SOI values.

 

This one may finally cut in deep, maybe. JMA sees a MJO wave 1/2 response which i believe is really good for Atlantic development and may allow the weakening of trades a bit as it passes over the pacific very weak. How much warming response will be interesting subsurface seems to be taking a little hit of late and OHC is still rather low.

 

Edit to add that euro also sees the 1/2 wave action before heading back into null at the beginning of the month. Bomm is still just in its own world.

-  the WWB model would seem more intuitively entering a negative mode with the +walker circulation - the latter evidenced by the activation of the west Pacific's MDR. 

I think the American sources have been a bit aggressive with ONI/SOI perturbations anyway.  I'm not sure we see one of those 'real' bursts until we're actually in one.  It's like fool me once, you know

[so_whats_happening]

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the most significant subsurface warming remains in the 1+2 and 3 regions. Finally starting to see some subsurface cooling near the Maritime Continent. But it’s hard to forecast what will happen with WWBs since the evolution has been so different this year. It’s impressive that 3.4 is above +1C without a strong WWB response yet in the Central Pacific.
 

 

https://cyclonicwx.com/sst/

It is impressive that very minor wwb events and two decent weakenings in the last 6 months has allowed it to go this far, the one decent was with the large soi drop in may to early june definitely openned the gates at a time when subsurface anoms were building. The other being back in march with the large mjo wave.

Im curious whether this one is similar to those or with a sort of cutting off in the subsurface this may play a role as we go further along. I would have liked to see the expansion of +6c or higher but with no real kelvin wave as of yet i dont see it pushing more until that time comes if not potentially weaken a bit. Nino 3 will probably be the tell tale of just how high region 3.4 goes we should know in the next month just how much more warming can happen.

[snowman19]

The new update from Skywatch India on the IOD and ENSO….They have a real healthy +IOD forming and they have the El Niño (region 3.4) going Super and peaking at +2.1C in December: 

 

[snowman19]

Say goodbye to the La Niña like state and forcing we’ve seen for the last 3+ years in the WPAC:

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Say goodbye to the La Niña like state and forcing we’ve seen for the last 3+ years in the WPAC:

 I'd argue based on what I've read from pro mets that the West Pacific/Maritime Continent (MC) has been the dominant region regarding "forcing" for the last five years. These same mets have said that the dominance of the SE ridge in winter has been largely because of this. This MC warmth has lead to a larger than normal % of the time for the MJO to be in the MC phases 4 and 5, a higher than average amplitude in those phases, and MC MJOlike forcing often occurring even when the official MJO wasn't actually in 4 or 5. 
 
 So, if what you're suggesting were to actually verify and persist through the upcoming winter, I'd look for it to lead to a colder winter in much of the E US in 2023-4 vs recent winters and possibly significantly colder.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 I'd argue based on what I've read from pro mets that the West Pacific/Maritime Continent (MC) has been the dominant region regarding "forcing" for the last five years. These same mets have said that the dominance of the SE ridge in winter has been largely because of this. This MC warmth has lead to a larger than normal % of the time for the MJO to be in the MC phases 4 and 5, a higher than average amplitude in those phases, and MC MJOlike forcing often occurring even when the official MJO wasn't actually in 4 or 5. 
 
 So, if what you're suggesting were to actually verify and persist through the upcoming winter, I'd look for it to lead to a colder winter in much of the E US in 2023-4 vs recent winters and possibly significantly colder.

The strong/super El Niño along with the +IOD is very likely to cause a major change in the dominant tropical convective forcing/MJO. As @bluewave pointed out, you can already see the SST and forcing changes showing up. Any change would lead to a much different outcome than the stagnant WPAC forcing we’ve seen since 2019….

[snowman19]

How anyone in their right mind could take this clown seriously is beyond me. He’s hyping 57-58, 65-66, 76-77, 02-03 and 09-10 as his analogs, saying it’s going to become a Modoki and posting a model run showing a super El Niño. “Top 5 event!” There’s no such thing as a super Modoki El Nino. How do people pay to read this utter garbage??

[GaWx]

 Before the new forecasts come out, I'd like to look at the latest 3.4 SST anomaly forecasts issued through 7/30 for August to see how they end up doing:

BoM: +1.9

Meteo-France: +1.9

Euro: +1.5

CANSIPS: +1.5

UKMET: +1.4

CFS: +1.3

JMA: +1.3

 Any predictions for which of these seven will end up closest to the August ERSST? June was +0.81 and July is likely going to end up +1.0 to +1.1. Current ERSST is probably near +1.1 although daily and weekly ERSSTs technically aren't released.

[snowman19]

 Before the new forecasts come out, I'd like to look at the latest 3.4 SST anomaly forecasts issued through 7/30 for August to see how they end up doing:
BoM: +1.9
Meteo-France: +1.9
Euro: +1.5
UKMET: +1.4
CFS: +1.3
JMA: +1.3
 Any predictions for which of these six will end up closest to the August ERSST? June was +0.81 and July is likely going to end up +1.0 to +1.1. Current ERSST is probably near +1.1 although daily and weekly ERSSTs technically aren't released.

Given that we are about to start August with a daily reading of +1.3C, I don’t think it reaching or surpassing strong status by 8/31 is that far fetched….

[roardog]

21 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Given that we are about to start August with a daily reading of +1.3C, I don’t think it reaching or surpassing strong status by 8/31 is that far fetched….

Coral Reef runs warmer than ERSST. 

[GaWx]

27 minutes ago, roardog said:

Coral Reef runs warmer than ERSST. 

 Yeah, CRW usually runs warmer. Today it was ~0.1 warmer. OISST was only +1.162. I expect tomorrow's weekly OISST 3.4 release to be +1.2.

 In other news, the OHC has dropped even slightly more. Last week's report had it down to ~+0.85 from a high in mid June near +1.30-5. The report to be issued tomorrow is expected to show it at only ~+0.80. It may be nearing a bottom, but it has quite a ways to get back to the June high though there's still plenty of time for that to happen:

[GaWx]

 

6 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Before the new forecasts come out, I'd like to look at the latest 3.4 SST anomaly forecasts issued through 7/30 for August to see how they end up doing:

BoM: +1.9

Meteo-France: +1.9

Euro: +1.5

UKMET: +1.4

CFS: +1.3

JMA: +1.3

 Any predictions for which of these six will end up closest to the August ERSST? June was +0.81 and July is likely going to end up +1.0 to +1.1. Current ERSST is probably near +1.1 although daily and weekly ERSSTs technically aren't released.

 The new BoM for August was just released at +1.7, a reduction from the prior run's +1.9.

 August forecast from prior runs:

July 15th: +1.9

July 1st: +2.0

June 17th: +2.6

June 3rd: +2.4

 

 Further out, the run was about the same with a +2.9 peak in Dec and Jan. I'm very confident that it will give up on those as we get closer. I think even @snowman19 would agree. The persistent pattern for each run is that it gives in for the first month or two but leaves the later months alone. Then as those later months get close, it starts giving in on those. Rinse and repeat.

[snowman19]

 
 The new BoM for August was just released at +1.7, a reduction from the prior run's +1.9.
 August forecast from prior runs:
July 15th: +1.9
July 1st: +2.0
June 17th: +2.6
June 3rd: +2.4
 
 Further out, the run was about the same with a +2.9 peak in Dec and Jan. I'm very confident that it will give up on those as we get closer. I think even [mention=13098]snowman19[/mention] would agree. The persistent pattern for each run is that it gives in for the first month or two but leaves the later months alone. Then as those later months get close, it starts giving in on those. Rinse and repeat.

Do I think the +2.9C the new POAMA run for December is showing is overdone? Yes and I’ve said that a few times now. However I absolutely do think it goes super in December and my guess for a peak is still +2.1C - +2.5C

[GaWx]

 In today's release, Nino 1+2 fell rather sharply from +3.5 in the prior one to +3.0. The daily OISST graph suggested today would show +3.0. That same graph is suggesting the sharp fall has ceased at least for now as the lowest day was six days ago at +2.9 and yesterday's was back up some to +3.0. Nino 3.4 rose as expected per the OISST graph from +1.1 to +1.2. Regions 3 (+1.7) and 4 (+0.8) were not surprisingly unchanged.

[snowman19]

21 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 In today's release, Nino 1+2 fell rather sharply from +3.5 in the prior one to +3.0. The daily OISST graph suggested today would show +3.0. That same graph is suggesting the sharp fall has ceased at least for now as the lowest day was six days ago at +2.9 and yesterday's was back up some to +3.0. Nino 3.4 rose as expected per the OISST graph from +1.1 to +1.2. Regions 3 (+1.7) and 4 (+0.8) were not surprisingly unchanged.

Very believable that we are in a strong El Niño by 9/1 now. At this point strong is inevitable and IMO so is super. The question is how “super” does it go by December? IMO there is a limit….definitely weaker than 15-16 and 97-98 but still super in the end none the less…..

[snowman19]

The new CANSIPS now has a super El Niño:

[GaWx]

33 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The new CANSIPS now has a super El Niño:

 That's quite the warming from +1.61 ONI peak on the prior run! Having +2.0 in Sept would require steep warming throughout August. It is keeping its +1.5 Aug forecast. Is that doable? Only with steep warming throughout the month since ERSST is now only near +1.1. So, high +1 anomalies would be needed by late Aug. If that were to occur, then a +2.0 Sept would be likely. Aug will be the main test. I have some doubt that Aug will get to +1.5, but we'll see. I'm favoring Aug to be closer to the +1.3 to +1.4 range per ERSST.

[griteater]

Yall posted the wrong tweet about the new CANSIPS