El Nino 2023-2024

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

He needed to vent. Comical post, and all wrong ofc.

Yea, something tells me he wouldn't be all that miserable in a snow-barren land.

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, something tells me he wouldn't be all that miserable in a snow-barren land.

Highly variable here. Last winter was a disaster for the entire MA, but the winter before was good relative to average- 20" imby. Long term mean snowfall is 18" or so here. I haven't hated the Ninas since the 2015-16 Nino winter. The coastal plain has cashed in pretty often with late developing coastal scrapers. The neutral/weak Nino winters since 2015 have largely sucked.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Highly variable here. Last winter was a disaster for the entire MA, but the winter before was good relative to average- 20" imby. Long term mean snowfall is 18" or so here. I haven't hated the Ninas since the 2015-16 Nino winter. The coastal plain has cashed in pretty often with late developing coastal scrapers. The neutral/weak Nino winters since 2015 have largely sucked.

From about my area near the NH border and up in latitude, the variance falls off....so the crap years, like last year, aren't as bad as the mid atl and most of SNE, but the great years usually not quite as good. This also means I can get kind of "stuck in the middle" for periods, which is why I haven't had an above average snowfall season since 2017-2018.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

From about my area near the NH border and up in latitude, the variance falls off....so the crap years, like last year, aren't as bad as the mid atl and most of SNE, but the great years usually not quite as good. This also means I can get kind of "stuck in the middle" for periods, which is why I haven't had an above average snowfall season since 2017-2018.

Yeah one big storm or a few moderate ones and I am above here. The latter is what happened the winter before last- almost all of it fell in Jan which was nice as it stuck around longer.

[snowman19]

From about my area near the NH border and up in latitude, the variance falls off....so the crap years, like last year, aren't as bad as the mid atl and most of SNE, but the great years usually not quite as good. This also means I can get kind of "stuck in the middle" for periods, which is why I haven't had an above average snowfall season since 2017-2018.

On the bright side, nothing could possibly be worse than last winter, that was the floor, the only place to go is up. My area only had one 6+ storm at the tail end of February. November was a total dud, December, January and March had next to nothing and January/February was a wall to wall torch a rama. The only winter worse than that was 01-02….97-98, 11-12 and 19-20 weren’t even that bad

[griteater]

Latest Euro MJO (*shakes head*)

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, griteater said:

Latest Euro MJO (*shakes head*)

 From a strictly SE cold/wintry wx potential perspective, I'd love to see that in winter as the combo of within the circle MJO (especially left side) and El Nino in especially January has made for some of the best opportunities!

[roardog]

CDAS is showing a pretty fast drop in 1+2 recently. It’s below +3 for the first time in awhile. 

[raindancewx]

August on the CFS looks like a cooler version of the analogs I like for winter. Good sign.

Also now shows up as a pretty wet month in the Southwest.

That's consistent with high solar activity. I read a paper a long time ago talking about the mechanisms for how solar activity can modulate the onset/peak/weakening of monsoon timing in India, Western Mexico, West Africa and a few other places. When I looked locally, I was able to replicate the effects. Above 100-150 sunspots annualized, there basically are no years with active July monsoons in the Southwest US. We were flirting with 200+ sunspots a few days in the past month.

When I run my model to try to fix/modernize the issues with 1972-73, it essentially comes up with 1991-92/2009-10 as the closest ENSO match. But since volcanic, solar, and Atlantic conditions are fairly bad matches to 1972-73 and 2009-10, 1991-92 actually works quite well at fixing the issues. I'll likely throw in 1997-98 at weak weight to drag the center of the East east of 2009-10, and then subtract out 1993-94 for the winter to fix the PDO and warm up the Atlantic more. For now 1993-94 isn't really an anti-log (it was literally warmer in 1993 than 2023 in Nino 3.4 as recently as May). 

One thing to watch is the PDO. It now looks just negative of neutral to me. Nino 1.2 tends to lead changes in the PDO areas. I don't think we'll see a complete breakdown in the negative features of the PDO until at least the Fall. But it is possible it flips at least somewhat positive in Sept/Oct.

[snowman19]

CDAS is showing a pretty fast drop in 1+2 recently. It’s below +3 for the first time in awhile. 

You’ve been saying this since March. 5 months and counting. Just keep repeating it, eventually you’ll be right….

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 hours ago, snowman19 said:

On the bright side, nothing could possibly be worse than last winter, that was the floor, the only place to go is up. My area only had one 6+ storm at the tail end of February. November was a total dud, December, January and March had next to nothing and January/February was a wall to wall torch a rama. The only winter worse than that was 01-02….97-98, 11-12 and 19-20 weren’t even that bad

Not true for me....while it sucked (40.5" when average is about 62"), there are plenty of seasons that have featured less snowfall where I am....just south of me was historically bad. But for me it just a run of the mill clunker.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 hours ago, raindancewx said:

August on the CFS looks like a cooler version of the analogs I like for winter. Good sign.

Also now shows up as a pretty wet month in the Southwest.

That's consistent with high solar activity. I read a paper a long time ago talking about the mechanisms for how solar activity can modulate the onset/peak/weakening of monsoon timing in India, Western Mexico, West Africa and a few other places. When I looked locally, I was able to replicate the effects. Above 100-150 sunspots annualized, there basically are no years with active July monsoons in the Southwest US. We were flirting with 200+ sunspots a few days in the past month.

When I run my model to try to fix/modernize the issues with 1972-73, it essentially comes up with 1991-92/2009-10 as the closest ENSO match. But since volcanic, solar, and Atlantic conditions are fairly bad matches to 1972-73 and 2009-10, 1991-92 actually works quite well at fixing the issues. I'll likely throw in 1997-98 at weak weight to drag the center of the East east of 2009-10, and then subtract out 1993-94 for the winter to fix the PDO and warm up the Atlantic more. For now 1993-94 isn't really an anti-log (it was literally warmer in 1993 than 2023 in Nino 3.4 as recently as May). 

One thing to watch is the PDO. It now looks just negative of neutral to me. Nino 1.2 tends to lead changes in the PDO areas. I don't think we'll see a complete breakdown in the negative features of the PDO until at least the Fall. But it is possible it flips at least somewhat positive in Sept/Oct.

Funny, I have been saying all summer on an anecdotal level how much this summer reminds me of 2009 out here.

I really like the 1991 analog.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

While the winds in the tropical Pacific didn’t couple with the SSTs, there was a partial 500 mb El Niño pattern in July. But the blocking east of Newfoundland was much stronger than average near record levels. We got the ridge near the PAC NW. But the ridge near the Aleutians was more typical of a La Niña. Hardly any trough west of California which we usually see during El Niño. Trough axis near Great Lakes was more Nino-like. The record heat in Miami this month was more La Niña-like. So an ENSO mixed bad due to the lack of full coupling. 

July 2023

30 year July El Niño composite 

 

 

Time Series Summary for Miami Area, FL (ThreadEx) - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	ENSO
1	2023	86.7
2	2020	85.9	Developing La Niña
3	2017	85.7	Developing La Nina
4	2019	85.1	Neutral
-	2005	85.1	Developing La Nina
5	1983	85.0	Developing La Nina

These are notable observations, however 'coupling' and correlations, et al, often do wonder apart at this time of year.  It's hard to know how much decoupling is 'normal' in that sense, because it's an inferred metric - thus are we more or less normally decoupled, in other words.

I will say this..  personal observation is that we've had an overly active summer variant polar jet, with unusually well formed R-wave signals when that typically breaks more nebular by mid summer.  That would sort of fracture the correlation and set up regions that look more and less ... but either wouldn't really be causally linked ( as much so ) ultimately to ENSO

[snowman19]

While the winds in the tropical Pacific didn’t couple with the SSTs, there was a partial 500 mb El Niño pattern in July. But the blocking east of Newfoundland was much stronger than average near record levels. We got the ridge near the PAC NW. But the ridge near the Aleutians was more typical of a La Niña. Hardly any trough west of California which we usually see during El Niño. Trough axis near Great Lakes was more Nino-like. The record heat in Miami this month was more La Niña-like. So an ENSO mixed bad due to the lack of full coupling. 

July 2023



30 year July El Niño composite 
 


 

Time Series Summary for Miami Area, FL (ThreadEx) - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	ENSO
1	2023	86.7
2	2020	85.9	Developing La Niña
3	2017	85.7	Developing La Nina
4	2019	85.1	Neutral
-	2005	85.1	Developing La Nina
5	1983	85.0	Developing La Nina

I know no one is going to want to hear this, but based on the current subsurface evolution, I think this El Nino very rapidly decays this spring and we go into yet another La Niña. Would not be surprised if we are knocking on the door of a weak La Niña next summer and have a healthy Niña event in place in the fall, 2024. Strong and super Nino events are very good at “killing” themselves come spring….

[GaWx]

41 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I know no one is going to want to hear this, but based on the current subsurface evolution, I think this El Nino very rapidly decays this spring and we go into yet another La Niña. Would not be surprised if we are knocking on the door of a weak La Niña next summer and have a healthy Niña event in place in the fall, 2024. Strong and super Nino events are very good at “killing” themselves come spring….

 Based purely on objective statistics back to the late 1800s for the year following +1.5+ ONI peak El Niños, it is a near coin flip as to whether La Niña will immediately follow. Out of 18, 8 had that occur. However, 6 of the last 7 (since 1972-3) were immediately followed by La Niña. I don't know whether or not a sample size of the most recent 7 cases is large enough to favor La Niña to follow as opposed to keeping it near a coin flip. Note that only 2 of 11 from 1877-8 through 1965-6 were followed by La Niña with 6 in a row from 1918-9 through 1965-6 not.

*Corrected

[snowman19]

 Based purely on objective statistics back to the late 1800s for the year following +1.5+ ONI peak El Niños, it is a near coin flip as to whether La Niña will immediately follow. Out of 18, 8 had that occur. However, 6 of the last 7 (since 1972-3) were immediately followed by La Niña. I don't know whether or not a sample size of the most recent 7 cases is large enough to favor La Niña to follow as opposed to keeping it near a coin flip. Note that only 2 of 11 from 1877-8 through 1965-6 were followed by La Niña with 6 in a row from 1918-9 through 1965-6 not.
*Corrected

Just based on recent history (since 72-73) and the way the subsurface is starting to look, I’d have to say the chances are high that there’s a La Nina for fall, 2024. That said, a very, very long way to go obviously

[GaWx]

 SST anomalies compared to July 1st in Nino 3.4:

-OISST is 0.249C warmer

-CRW is 0.192C warmer

-CDAS is 0.134C warmer

 These are quite underwhelming to me when considering the strong acceleration of warming forecasted by the BoM model for July.

 Based on OISST, it appears July as a whole will end up near 1.1. The implication of a 1.1 July OISST would be a July ERSST (input for ONI calculation) to be most likely in the 1.0 to 1.1 range. Compare these numbers to the prior BoM runs July predictions:

Run/July prediction:

2/11/23: 1.3

2/25/23: 1.4

3/11/23: 1.7

3/25/23: 1.9

4/8/23: 1.4

4/22/23: 1.8

5/6/23: 1.8

5/20/23: 1.7

6/3/23: 1.7

6/17/23: 1.8

7/1/23: 1.5
 

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ocean/outlooks/index.shtml#region=NINO34

 

[Terpeast]

7 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 SST anomalies compared to July 1st in Nino 3.4:

-OISST is 0.249C warmer

-CRW is 0.192C warmer

-CDAS is 0.134C warmer

 These are quite underwhelming to me when considering the strong acceleration of warming forecasted by the BoM model for July.

 Based on OISST, it appears July as a whole will end up near 1.1. The implication of a 1.1 July OISST would be a July ERSST (input for ONI calculation) to be most likely in the 1.0 to 1.1 range. Compare these numbers to the prior BoM runs July predictions:

Run/July prediction:

2/11/23: 1.3

2/25/23: 1.4

3/11/23: 1.7

3/25/23: 1.9

4/8/23: 1.4

4/22/23: 1.8

5/6/23: 1.8

5/20/23: 1.7

6/3/23: 1.7

6/17/23: 1.8

7/1/23: 1.5
 

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ocean/outlooks/index.shtml#region=NINO34

 

I think at this point it’s safe to throw out the BoM model altogether for this year.

[griteater]

4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I think at this point it’s safe to throw out the BoM model altogether for this year.

It’s kind of fun though to just beat it like a borrowed mule for its errors, but I see your point 

[snowman19]

It’s kind of fun though to just beat it like a borrowed mule for its errors, but I see your point 

The POAMA took a dump on this one. Much too warm. I think the Euro ends up being the closest to reality with a “low-end” super Nino peak around December. The warm water volume we have isn’t going to be denied

[snowman19]

We may be able to start to get the El Niño to couple more now that the WPAC near Indonesia has cooled a bit  and the equatorial  +30 C SSTs have moved over to the Dateline. The test will be to see if some stronger WWBs appear near the Dateline. At least the forcing is consolidating more in the CP on the ensembles.



 

Once the +IOD gets going (should be next month) I think this really takes off and we see good atmospheric coupling/-SOI/WWBs/DWKWs along with the associated warming and feedbacks

[George001]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Just based on recent history (since 72-73) and the way the subsurface is starting to look, I’d have to say the chances are high that there’s a La Nina for fall, 2024. That said, a very, very long way to go obviously

I don’t think that is likely being 2 years removed from 3 consecutive La Ninas. A second year nino is more likely, especially if this nino doesn’t become a super event. I think something like this is more likely:

year 1- strong east based El Niño (EP) 

year 2- central based weak El Niño (CP)

year 3- strong La Niña

[George001]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I know no one is going to want to hear this, but based on the current subsurface evolution, I think this El Nino very rapidly decays this spring and we go into yet another La Niña. Would not be surprised if we are knocking on the door of a weak La Niña next summer and have a healthy Niña event in place in the fall, 2024. Strong and super Nino events are very good at “killing” themselves come spring….

All depends on where you live. My area in New England statistically does the worst in super ninos and second worst in strong ninos (especially non modokis) so I am expecting this upcoming winter to be a fairly benign winter here, like last year (not quite that extreme, but nevertheless below normal snow and above normal temps). Ninas following ninos are often really damn good in SNE, 1995-1996 and 2010-2011 are good examples. If we do get a Nina, I would think it would be a fairly strong one since this El Niño is going to be quite strong. If you are right and we go from super nino to strong Nina, the mid Atlantic will likely do better relative to average this winter than the next so I would expect most mid Atlantic folks would prefer this winter. I would expect my area to do well during the strong Nina and poorly this winter. In fact, the progression you are describing is very similar to 2009-2010 to 2010-2011. This nino will likely be stronger than that one, but regardless that went from strong nino after a multi year Nina to a very strong La Niña in 2010-2011. 

[George001]

Anyways, back to the El Niño it looks like it is on track to become a strong event by the fall. The models are starting to come to a consensus, the Australian cooled off while the CFS warmed up. 

[snowman19]

@bluewave A +IOD is very clearly developing now  

[snowman19]

Adios -PMM/-PDO….El Nino forcing the change

[snowman19]

[so_whats_happening]

On 7/28/2023 at 7:48 AM, bluewave said:

Yeah, the forcing has been shifting east away from the Maritime Continent and is looking more Nino-like. It will be interesting to see if we can finally get some stronger WWBs closer to the Central Pacific. 
 

Gfs is sniffing out something in a week, wwb wise. It seems like maybe this a response from the -SOI pattern we just had. We saw one similarly back at the end of may from those rather low SOI values.

 

This one may finally cut in deep, maybe. JMA sees a MJO wave 1/2 response which i believe is really good for Atlantic development and may allow the weakening of trades a bit as it passes over the pacific very weak. How much warming response will be interesting subsurface seems to be taking a little hit of late and OHC is still rather low.

 

Edit to add that euro also sees the 1/2 wave action before heading back into null at the beginning of the month. Bomm is still just in its own world.

[snowman19]

Yeah, the most significant subsurface warming remains in the 1+2 and 3 regions. Finally starting to see some subsurface cooling near the Maritime Continent. But it’s hard to forecast what will happen with WWBs since the evolution has been so different this year. It’s impressive that 3.4 is above +1C without a strong WWB response yet in the Central Pacific.
 



 
https://cyclonicwx.com/sst/

This event has built entirely from the east (regions 1+2 and 3) with DWKWs breaking at the South American coast. It may very well end up being one of, if not the most east-based event on record. Once the -SOI/WWBs get going in earnest, I think we will see very rapid warming in 3.4. Like you said, +1.1C at the end of July is already very impressive and the warming still has yet to really take off. When the developing +IOD kicks in next month, it’s going to constructively interfere and that’s when I think things start to go bonkers with the warming

[roardog]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

This event has built entirely from the east (regions 1+2 and 3) with DWKWs breaking at the South American coast. It may very well end up being one of, if not the most east-based event on record. Once the -SOI/WWBs get going in earnest, I think we will see very rapid warming in 3.4. Like you said, +1.1C at the end of July is already very impressive and the warming still has yet to really take off. When the developing +IOD kicks in next month, it’s going to constructively interfere and that’s when I think things start to go bonkers with the warming

I’ll believe all of this when I see it happen this year. We’ve been reading since Spring about how all of this will happen by June then by July and now by August.