El Nino 2023-2024

[griteater]

9 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Again, the central-subsurface is cooling on a daily basis. The black-box is the PNA-indictor, I've researched/found predicts more than other ENSO measurements. 

https://ibb.co/hXxSFYq

TAO images for July 13 and July 23

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 hours ago, GaWx said:

I think strong is most likely as I've thought for awhile. Also, I still have a small chance for super. However, I've still not eliminated the small chance for upper end moderate. For one thing, Sea of Peru is favoring a moderate peak SOND as was recently posted and discussed ITT:
 

https://cdn.www.gob.pe/uploads/document/file/4887781/Comunicado_Of_ENFEN N° 11-2023.pdf?v=1689986929

Secondly, the latest OHC having dropped from +1.35 in mid June to only near +0.9 in mid July gives me pause:

Agree.

[snowman19]

This is showing a well coupled El Niño by September

[raindancewx]

For all the eastern optimists, like 95% of you. Here are the most recent 10 El Nino winters minus the prior 10 El Nino winters. These are the winters that finish over 27.0C in DJF.

Recent: 1994-95, 1997-98, 2002-03, 2004-05, 2006-07, 2009-10, 2014-15, 2015-16, 2018-19, 2019-20

Older:  (-)1965-66, 1968-69, 1969-70, 1972-73, 1976-77, 1977-78, 1982-83, 1986-87, 1987-88, 1991-92

I would say for most people in the East, 1994, 1997, 2006, 2015, 2018, 2019 kind of suck. 2014-15 was also very warm before mid-winter. 2004 is ok, not amazing. 

On the scale, orange is 2-3 degrees warmer in F. Deep red is over 3 degrees warmer. Locally, six of the ten most recent El Ninos still have average or below average highs against the past 100 year means (49.6F high for DJF).

The winters of 1997-98 (#36 coldest), 2006-07 (#32), 2009-10 (#38), 2018-19 (#49) are actually somewhat cold here even against the 1923-2022 winter average temperatures.

[GaWx]

14 hours ago, bluewave said:

The JMA is doing pretty good so far as the latest OISST Nino 3.4 came in at +1.1.

 

 The JMA is obviously doing much better than the BOM. But I was curious if a recent bias warm or cool is being suggested. It looks to me that there's been a modest net cool bias so far in 2023:

-Jan run: JFM -0.52; FMA -0.22; MAM 0.04; AMJ 0.27; MJJ 0.49

-Feb run: FMA -0.23; MAM 0.04; AMJ 0.26; MJJ 0.45; JJA 0.66

-Mar run: MAM 0.13; AMJ 0.37; MJJ: 0.58; JJA 0.81; JAS 1.06

-Apr run: AMJ 0.35; MJJ 0.55; JJA 0.77; JAS 1.02; ASO 1.28

-May run: MJJ 0.74; JJA 1.00; JAS 1.28; ASO 1.61; SON 1.80

-Jun run: JJA 1.00; JAS 1.22;  ASO 1.46; SON 1.67; OND 1.87

- Jul run: JAS 1.23; ASO 1.47; SON 1.67; OND 1.76; NDJ 1.75

 
-Actual ONI: JFM -0.43; FMA -0.14; MAM 0.16; AMJ 0.47 MJJ ~0.75-0.8; JJ ~0.90-0.95

Analysis:

1) JFM forecast made in Jan missed by -0.09

2) FMA forecasts made in Jan/Feb missed by -0.08 to -0.09

3) MAM forecasts made in Jan/Feb missed by -0.12; MAM forecast made in Mar missed by -0.03

4) AMJ forecasts made in Jan/Feb missed by ~-0.20; those made in Mar/Apr missed by -0.10 to -0.12

5) MJJ forecasts made in Jan/Feb missed by ~-0.30; those made in Mar/Apr missed by ~-0.20; the one made in May was only barely too cool

6) JJA forecasts have warmed from 0.66 in Feb to ~0.80 in Mar/Apr to 1.00 in May/June. I think JJA will end up 1.10+.

7) JAS forecasts have warmed from ~1.04 in Mar/Apr to ~1.25 in May/June/July

8) ASO forecasts warmed from 1.28 in Apr to 1.61 in May but it did cool back some to ~1.46 in June/Jul

9) SON forecasts actually cooled from 1.80 in May to 1.67 in Jun/Jul

10) OND forecasts actually cooled from 1.87 in June to 1.76 in July.

---------

 Based on the above, I'm leaning a little bit based on the JMA toward a peak that is ~0.1 warmer than the 1.76 of the latest JMA forecast for OND based on a perceived slight cool bias of the JMA.

[snowman19]

 The JMA is obviously doing much better than the BOM. But I was curious if a recent bias warm or cool is being suggested. It looks to me that there's been a modest net cool bias so far in 2023:
-Jan run: JFM -0.52; FMA -0.22; MAM 0.04; AMJ 0.27; MJJ 0.49
-Feb run: FMA -0.23; MAM 0.04; AMJ 0.26; MJJ 0.45; JJA 0.66
-Mar run: MAM 0.13; AMJ 0.37; MJJ: 0.58; JJA 0.81; JAS 1.06
-Apr run: AMJ 0.35; MJJ 0.55; JJA 0.77; JAS 1.02; ASO 1.28
-May run: MJJ 0.74; JJA 1.00; JAS 1.28; ASO 1.61; SON 1.80
-Jun run: JJA 1.00; JAS 1.22;  ASO 1.46; SON 1.67; OND 1.87
- Jul run: JAS 1.23; ASO 1.47; SON 1.67; OND 1.76; NDJ 1.75
 
-Actual ONI: JFM -0.43; FMA -0.14; MAM 0.16; AMJ 0.47 MJJ ~0.75-0.8; JJ ~0.90-0.95
Analysis:
1) JFM forecast made in Jan missed by -0.09
2) FMA forecasts made in Jan/Feb missed by -0.08 to -0.09
3) MAM forecasts made in Jan/Feb missed by -0.12; MAM forecast made in Mar missed by -0.03
4) AMJ forecasts made in Jan/Feb missed by ~-0.20; those made in Mar/Apr missed by -0.10 to -0.12
5) MJJ forecasts made in Jan/Feb missed by ~-0.30; those made in Mar/Apr missed by ~-0.20; the one made in May was only barely too cool
6) JJA forecasts have warmed from 0.66 in Feb to ~0.80 in Mar/Apr to 1.00 in May/June. I think JJA will end up 1.10+.
7) JAS forecasts have warmed from ~1.04 in Mar/Apr to ~1.25 in May/June/July
8) ASO forecasts warmed from 1.28 in Apr to 1.61 in May but it did cool back some to ~1.46 in June/Jul
9) SON forecasts actually cooled from 1.80 in May to 1.67 in Jun/Jul
10) OND forecasts actually cooled from 1.87 in June to 1.76 in July.
---------
 Based on the above, I'm leaning a little bit based on the JMA toward a peak that is ~0.1 warmer than the 1.76 of the latest JMA forecast for OND based on a perceived slight cool bias of the JMA.

The BOM is very clearly running too warm so far but as you pointed out the JMA has also been cool biased. I still think my guesstimate of this event hitting a peak between +2.1C - +2.5C in November/December is reasonable and well within the realm of possibilities. I believe the JMA peak of +1.7C is too cool, but even so, it’s still not that far off my peak range guess

[roardog]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The BOM is very clearly running too warm so far but as you pointed out the JMA has also been cool biased. I still think my guesstimate of this event hitting a peak between +2.1C - +2.5C in November/December is reasonable and well within the realm of possibilities. I believe the JMA peak of +1.7C is too cool, but even so, it’s still not that far off my peak range guess

1.7C and 2.5C are worlds apart actually. 

[snowman19]

1.7C and 2.5C are worlds apart actually. 

Reading comprehension isn’t your strong point, so I’ll say it again…My guess for a final peak: between +2.1C - +2.5C

[Terpeast]

6 hours ago, raindancewx said:

For all the eastern optimists, like 95% of you. Here are the most recent 10 El Nino winters minus the prior 10 El Nino winters. These are the winters that finish over 27.0C in DJF.

Recent: 1994-95, 1997-98, 2002-03, 2004-05, 2006-07, 2009-10, 2014-15, 2015-16, 2018-19, 2019-20

Older:  (-)1965-66, 1968-69, 1969-70, 1972-73, 1976-77, 1977-78, 1982-83, 1986-87, 1987-88, 1991-92

I would say for most people in the East, 1994, 1997, 2006, 2015, 2018, 2019 kind of suck. 2014-15 was also very warm before mid-winter. 2004 is ok, not amazing. 

On the scale, orange is 2-3 degrees warmer in F. Deep red is over 3 degrees warmer. Locally, six of the ten most recent El Ninos still have average or below average highs against the past 100 year means (49.6F high for DJF).

The winters of 1997-98 (#36 coldest), 2006-07 (#32), 2009-10 (#38), 2018-19 (#49) are actually somewhat cold here even against the 1923-2022 winter average temperatures.

I’m not sure this really tells us much except that the planet has a whole has been warming regardess of enso state. I’m not a fan of comparisons using X years “minus” Y years, especially if all the X years are recent and the Y years are pre CC, except when you’re trying to show that CC has happened and by how much. 

EDIT: Please know that I’m not trying to put your work down, you do great analyses and your research is top notch. It’s just that my own research also shows a 4 F increase in my area over the last 50-60 years without taking into account enso state. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, raindancewx said:

For all the eastern optimists, like 95% of you. Here are the most recent 10 El Nino winters minus the prior 10 El Nino winters. These are the winters that finish over 27.0C in DJF.

Recent: 1994-95, 1997-98, 2002-03, 2004-05, 2006-07, 2009-10, 2014-15, 2015-16, 2018-19, 2019-20

Older:  (-)1965-66, 1968-69, 1969-70, 1972-73, 1976-77, 1977-78, 1982-83, 1986-87, 1987-88, 1991-92

I would say for most people in the East, 1994, 1997, 2006, 2015, 2018, 2019 kind of suck. 2014-15 was also very warm before mid-winter. 2004 is ok, not amazing. 

On the scale, orange is 2-3 degrees warmer in F. Deep red is over 3 degrees warmer. Locally, six of the ten most recent El Ninos still have average or below average highs against the past 100 year means (49.6F high for DJF).

The winters of 1997-98 (#36 coldest), 2006-07 (#32), 2009-10 (#38), 2018-19 (#49) are actually somewhat cold here even against the 1923-2022 winter average temperatures.

See, 2014-2015 was the snowiest winter on record for much of my area, and the second snowiest for me personally...ditto with respect to 2004-2005 (third snowiest for me personally). That is all anyone really cares about TBH....its all about snowfall on this board.

[rclab]

1 hour ago, roardog said:

1.7C and 2.5C are worlds apart actually. 

 

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Reading comprehension isn’t your strong point, so I’ll say it again…My guess for a final peak: between +2.1C - +2.5C

Good morning S19/r d. I believe rd’s post was referring, in comparison, to your last sentence. It’s not an issue of comprehension as it is of interpretation of what’s written. Your skills in this area are self evident. The give and take is good way for those of us without those skills to gain a better understanding. Stay well, as always ….

[griteater]

500mb composites here of all Strong El Ninos, Pre and Post 1950

 

-NAO is more common during Strong El Nino than any other ENSO phase

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, griteater said:

500mb composites here of all Strong El Ninos, Pre and Post 1950

 

-NAO is more common during Strong El Nino than any other ENSO phase

Surprising to me, but it make sense because stronger forcing out near the dateline will have that impact. Confirms the theory that location of forcing is more important than intensity.

[griteater]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Surprising to me, but it make sense because stronger forcing out near the dateline will have that impact. Confirms the theory that location of forcing is more important than intensity.

Number of -NAO Winters during El Nino since 1900

Weak El Nino: 5/14

Moderate El Nino: 8/16

Strong El Nino: 6/9

Super El Nino: 0/3

[40/70 Benchmark]

Pretty cool article explaining how the delayed coupling of el nino is causing the S hemisphere winter to deviate from expectations....also calls into question just how strong it will ultimately grow.

The Wet and Cold Australian Winter Seems to be Defying the Recent El Nino Alert and is in Stark Contrast to the Official Winter Weather Outlook (severe-weather.eu)

 

If El Niño is not yet coupled, it suggests that the oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the tropical Pacific have not fully synchronized to create a well-defined El Niño event.

The absence of coupling means that the typical atmospheric response and associated impacts on weather patterns may not be fully realised. It indicates that the development and strength of El Niño are still uncertain or not yet pronounced. Essentially, it is too early to know how significant this El Niño will be and certainly too early to be experiencing any direct impacts on our Australian winter weather.

[snowman19]

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

Saw this posted before, he is incorrect in that 1957 was not east based.

[snowman19]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Saw this posted before, he is incorrect in that 1957 was not east based.

He’s arguing that ‘57 started east-based with his QBO/solar composite. But yes I agree, it definitely did not end up that way

[griteater]

57 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It will be interesting to see if Nino 1+2 puts in an early peak ahead of the fall. I believe it would be a first since 57-58. Not making comparisons with the abundant snowfall that winter just the timing of the 1+2 peak. That cooling subsurface to the west gives the suggestion that the warm water source for 1+2 may begin to wane in coming weeks like the CFS shows. We than have to ask how much more Nino 3.4 can realistically warm beyond the low +1s if the trades done relax and the El Niño continues to remain uncoupled?
 

 

 

Yeah that plunge you show there in 1.2 on the CFS is kind of what I would have expected in absence of westerly wind anomalies, but the eastern warmth has really anchored in there thus far and there are different opinions on what happens going forward.  It feels like the first half of a wide open ballgame in terms of eventual outcome.  We may think we know how this is going to play out, but we probably don't

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, griteater said:

Yeah that plunge you show there in 1.2 on the CFS is kind of what I would have expected in absence of westerly wind anomalies, but the eastern warmth has really anchored in there thus far and there are different opinions on what happens going forward.  It feels like the first half of a wide open ballgame in terms of eventual outcome.  We may think we know how this is going to play out, but we probably don't

It also raises the question of whether wwbs actually drive nino development, or is actually the other way around.

Maybe both. But this year it might be that the warm water in the east eventually migrates west, and only then the trades weaken and/or wwbs occur. 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It will be interesting to see if Nino 1+2 puts in an early peak ahead of the fall. I believe it would be a first since 57-58. Not making comparisons with the abundant snowfall that winter just the timing of the 1+2 peak. That cooling subsurface to the west gives the suggestion that the warm water source for 1+2 may begin to wane in coming weeks like the CFS shows. We than have to ask how much more Nino 3.4 can realistically warm beyond the low +1s if the trades done relax and the El Niño continues to remain uncoupled?
 

 

 

 Although not necessarily having such a steep plunge as CFS has, note that the JMA, Euro, UKMET, and Meteo-France also all have Nino 1+2 peaking between now and August followed by a notable drop. I can't find the BoM 1+2 prediction.

[griteater]

2 hours ago, Terpeast said:

It also raises the question of whether wwbs actually drive nino development, or is actually the other way around.

Maybe both. But this year it might be that the warm water in the east eventually migrates west, and only then the trades weaken and/or wwbs occur. 

This paper has been referenced in here, but these excerpts are from... The very strong coastal El Niño in 1925 in the far-eastern Pacific | SpringerLink

 

"In contrast to the extreme 1982–1983 and 1997–1998 events, this very strong “coastal El Niño” in early 1925 was characterized by warm conditions in the FEP (Far East Pacific), but cool conditions elsewhere in the central Pacific. Hydrographic and tide-gauge data indicate that downwelling equatorial Kelvin waves had little role in its initiation. Instead, ship data indicate an abrupt onset of strong northerly winds across the equator and the strengthening/weakening of the intertropical convergence zones (ITCZ) south/north of the equator."

 

"In the context of ENSO diversity, there have been several studies that have classified EN events according to their spatial pattern. But if we focus on those EN events that have very strong impacts on coastal Peru and Ecuador with very high SST and coastal rainfall, we can identify two major types:

– Very strong warm ENSO events, e.g. 1982–83 and 1997–98, that are associated with the zonal dynamics in the equatorial Pacific and a nonlinear Bjerknes feedback that enhances their growth (Takahashi and Dewitte 2016), which are potentially predictable several months in advance

– Very strong “coastal” El Nino, e.g. 1891 and 1925, with cold to neutral conditions in the rest of the equatorial Pacific (griteater comment - as they are developing) and associated with meridional dynamics in the FEP (Far East Pacific) involving the abrupt enhancement of the ITCZ and warming south of the equator and strong northerly winds. Based on our current knowledge, this type of event is not as predictable as the warm ENSO events."

[CAPE]

3 hours ago, Terpeast said:

It also raises the question of whether wwbs actually drive nino development, or is actually the other way around.

Maybe both. But this year it might be that the warm water in the east eventually migrates west, and only then the trades weaken and/or wwbs occur. 

Probably both. Helps to drive Nino development, but thereafter once the location of the warmest ssts are established, it tends to help maintain the forcing. I am no expert though, and I don't parrot random twitter geeks and claim to have 'educated' opinions based on their understanding of the processes at play.

[CAPE]

hooked the weenie. easy.

[CAPE]

9 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Reading comprehension isn’t your strong point, so I’ll say it again…My guess for a final peak: between +2.1C - +2.5C

Why should anyone care about your guess?

[snowman19]

Why should anyone care about your guess?

Trailer park ratchet trash CAPE is back I see with his typical degenerate responses. If I lived in an area (Greensboro, Maryland) that gets 2 inches of snow total per year on average like you do, I’d be just as miserable as you are with your 2nd grade backwoods, rube education. Go back to the mid-Atlantic forum and wallow in your misery with the other people in that almost subtropical climate. You are the lowest form of life. Oxygen stealer

[CAPE]

4 more posts to go. Maybe stick with the weenies.

[snowman19]

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Trailer park ratchet trash CAPE is back I see with his typical degenerate responses. If I lived in an area (Greensboro, Maryland) that gets 2 inches of snow total per year on average like you do, I’d be just as miserable as you are with your 2nd grade backwoods, rube education. Go back to the mid-Atlantic forum and wallow in your misery with the other people in that almost subtropical climate. You are the lowest form of life. Oxygen stealer

[CAPE]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

He needed to vent. Comical post, and all wrong ofc.