snowman19 Posted July 23, 2023 Share Posted July 23, 2023 What a difference a year makes…. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 23, 2023 Share Posted July 23, 2023 The CFS has given up on its many days earlier this month (the last time as recently as just four days ago) having a moderate MJO phase 5-6-7: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 23, 2023 Share Posted July 23, 2023 More comments on Twitter about why the El Niño hasn’t coupled yet. [/url] The 1982 super El Nino took until September to really take off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 23, 2023 Share Posted July 23, 2023 The El Niño onset in 1982 might have been boosted by strong external (uncoupled) forcing, making it intrinsically less predictable than 1997. We cannot rule this specific scenario to repeat now, but seems unlikely. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2665-3The people who want a change from what we’ve seen since 2019 better hope this Nino changes things up in a big way or we’ll be stuck in the same rut we’ve been in since then. If you want a change then you want the Nino to couple or it’s just more of the same. Funny how the same people who were cheering on an El Niño last winter don’t want it to happen now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 23, 2023 Share Posted July 23, 2023 20 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The people who want a change from what we’ve seen since 2019 better hope this Nino changes things up in a big way or we’ll be stuck in the same rut we’ve been in since then. If you want a change then you want the Nino to couple or it’s just more of the same. Funny how the same people who were cheering on an El Niño last winter don’t want it to happen now I don't think they don't want it. Rather, I think many of them are primarily hoping it isn't east based and/or super strong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 23, 2023 Share Posted July 23, 2023 56 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The people who want a change from what we’ve seen since 2019 better hope this Nino changes things up in a big way or we’ll be stuck in the same rut we’ve been in since then. If you want a change then you want the Nino to couple or it’s just more of the same. Funny how the same people who were cheering on an El Niño last winter don’t want it to happen now A coupled strong east or even central Nino wouldn't be good for winter prospects. An uncoupled response would work out better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 23, 2023 Share Posted July 23, 2023 A coupled strong east or even central Nino wouldn't be good for winter prospects. An uncoupled response would work out better. That makes zero sense. If the Nino doesn’t couple at all, then you are stuck with the same exact background system that’s been in place since 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted July 23, 2023 Share Posted July 23, 2023 40 minutes ago, snowman19 said: That makes zero sense. If the Nino doesn’t couple at all, then you are stuck with the same exact background system that’s been in place since 2019 that isn’t going to happen 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 23, 2023 Share Posted July 23, 2023 that isn’t going to happenJust like it was impossible that we were weren’t going to get at least one historic KU bomb from the best pattern in history last December 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 24, 2023 Share Posted July 24, 2023 It’ll couple but at times the boreal winter hemispheric circulation mode will wonder off … I.e transiently so, but the return/baseline will be Nino/Nino-esque Problem is … the coupling can happen yet the external mode may still be compensating … such that the registries are more modest relative to DNSO strength. We’ve been seeing this latter state spanning both warm and cool ENSOs over the last 10 years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 24, 2023 Share Posted July 24, 2023 11 hours ago, snowman19 said: The people who want a change from what we’ve seen since 2019 better hope this Nino changes things up in a big way or we’ll be stuck in the same rut we’ve been in since then. If you want a change then you want the Nino to couple or it’s just more of the same. Funny how the same people who were cheering on an El Niño last winter don’t want it to happen now Everyone is convinced of an el Nino, but the same people that wanted it last year would just assume not have it mature by mid summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted July 24, 2023 Share Posted July 24, 2023 6 hours ago, snowman19 said: Just like it was impossible that we were weren’t going to get at least one historic KU bomb from the best pattern in history last December do you have one single real life friend 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 24, 2023 Share Posted July 24, 2023 do you have one single real life friendI have more friends than you do accurate forecasts 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 24, 2023 Share Posted July 24, 2023 13 hours ago, bluewave said: It’s ironic that the strongest La Niña-like winter monthly base state occurred during the +13 December 2015. Potent MJO 4-6 passage which was previously unheard of during such a strong El Niño. It’s as if the WPAC warm pool forcing synergistically combined with the El Niño forcing for a super La Niña base state. That +EPO -PNA SE Ridge combo was off the charts. So the potential for overlapping forcing influences makes seasonal forecasts for the winters very challenging to say the least. https://phys.org/news/2021-04-distinctive-mjo-super-el-nino.html That's something I've been speculating over recent years, actually - that "asynchronous mimicry" effect. The idea is, because of increased(ing) ambient-geostrophic wind velocity during the winter ( due to lowering boreal heights compressing into HC latitudes ) this has been shifting the frequency into a higher order ... displacing the R-waves in both time(ing) and space. Take the El Ninos of mid last century then subject them to anomalously fast basal velocities... Sounds like big words but it really just means we are observing long wave mechanics resolved in a faster planetary flow. That sets the pattern modes "clicking" into the next gears, which if extreme enough, mimicks a La Nina during El Ninos, and vice versa... Not as a fix predicament, but at times - hence the decoupling periods ...or the River events during La Ninas... Or 2015/February..etc. There's a bit of philosophy involved, too. Like, it doesn't mean "El Nino is failing," per se? It would be more like the climatology of El Nino(Nina) is changed... and unfortunately, for seasonal expectations, that data is still emerging in time. In that sense, there's some art to projecting what these warm and cool ENSOs may mean ( what and where). A challenge that is augmented further because this world is in fact still actually changing. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 24, 2023 Share Posted July 24, 2023 This El Niño continues to be extremely east-based and the region 1+2 warmth is record breaking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 24, 2023 Share Posted July 24, 2023 There's been a somewhat notable 11 straight day -SOI streak and this will very likely dip to the lowest tomorrow (7/25). I expect tomorrow will be well down into the -30s with as low as ~-40 possible. This will be the lowest daily SOI since 5/25/2023. After that, it appears there will be a pretty steep rise that may get it up to ~+10 on 7/30-31. July SOI as a whole looks to come in ~-3. Compared to the July SOI for the seven incoming super strong El Niño events since 1877, the -3 is weak: 1877: -10 1888: -16 1965: -21 1972: -17 1982: -18 1997: -9 2015: -14 *AVG: -15* OTOH, six of the 11 incoming strong El Niño July SOIs had either similarly weakly negative or even slightly positive: 1899: -5 1902: +1 1930: -4 1957: +1 1991: -2 2009: +2 So whereas a -3 SOI for July of 2023 doesn't at all support an incoming super Nino when considering the -15 average July SOI for the seven super events, the fact that 6 of the 11 incoming strong events were in the general vicinity of -3 (+2 to -5) for July tells me that the -3 for this month is not at all out of July climo range for an incoming strong. https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 24, 2023 Share Posted July 24, 2023 https://phys.org/news/2023-07-ai-outperforms-traditional-methods-central.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 24, 2023 Share Posted July 24, 2023 There's been a somewhat notable 11 straight day -SOI streak and this will very likely dip to the lowest tomorrow (7/25). I expect tomorrow will be well down into the -30s with as low as ~-40 possible. This will be the lowest daily SOI since 5/25/2023. After that, it appears there will be a pretty steep rise that may get it up to ~+10 on 7/30-31. July SOI as a whole looks to come in ~-3. Compared to the July SOI for the seven incoming super strong El Niño events since 1877, the -3 is weak: 1877: -10 1888: -16 1965: -21 1972: -17 1982: -18 1997: -9 2015: -14 *AVG: -15* OTOH, six of the 11 incoming strong El Niño July SOIs had either similarly weakly negative or even slightly positive: 1899: -5 1902: +1 1930: -4 1957: +1 1991: -2 2009: +2 So whereas a -3 SOI for July of 2023 doesn't at all support an incoming super Nino when considering the -15 average July SOI for the seven super events, the fact that 6 of the 11 incoming strong events were in the general vicinity of -3 (+2 to -5) for July tells me that the -3 for this month is not at all out of July climo range for an incoming strong.https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/At this point, I think the only question is, does this Nino become super in November/December? This event going strong is inevitable, basically guaranteed now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 24, 2023 Share Posted July 24, 2023 38 minutes ago, snowman19 said: At this point, I think the only question is, does this Nino become super in November/December? This event going strong is inevitable, basically guaranteed now I think strong is most likely as I've thought for awhile. Also, I still have a small chance for super. However, I've still not eliminated the small chance for upper end moderate. For one thing, Sea of Peru is favoring a moderate peak SOND as was recently posted and discussed ITT: https://cdn.www.gob.pe/uploads/document/file/4887781/Comunicado_Of_ENFEN N° 11-2023.pdf?v=1689986929 Secondly, the latest OHC having dropped from +1.35 in mid June to only near +0.9 in mid July gives me pause: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 24, 2023 Share Posted July 24, 2023 Again, the central-subsurface is cooling on a daily basis. The black-box is the PNA-indictor, I've researched/found predicts more than other ENSO measurements. https://ibb.co/hXxSFYq Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted July 24, 2023 Share Posted July 24, 2023 2 hours ago, bluewave said: The JMA is doing pretty good so far as the latest OISST Nino 3.4 came in at +1.1. The JMA has been doing really well, even with the mjo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted July 24, 2023 Share Posted July 24, 2023 24 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said: The JMA has been doing really well, even with the mjo. Does anybody know how the BOM is doing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 24, 2023 Share Posted July 24, 2023 6 minutes ago, thunderbolt said: Does anybody know how the BOM is doing? It had 1.77 for July and the current weekly update is 1.10. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for Model JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ DJF JFM FMA Dynamical Models AUS-ACCESS 1.77 2.23 2.57 2.73 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted July 24, 2023 Share Posted July 24, 2023 25 minutes ago, bluewave said: It had 1.77 for July and the current weekly update is 1.10. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for Model JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ DJF JFM FMA Dynamical Models AUS-ACCESS 1.77 2.23 2.57 2.73 Thanks blue 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 What is the JMA predicting as the peak and when? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 8 minutes ago, Terpeast said: What is the JMA predicting as the peak and when? 1.76 in OND. seems about right 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 I hate to take the lazy man approach but shouldn’t 1957-1958 be a top analog? Triple dip La Niña, followed with a strong El Niño, obviously no analogs are the same, but it’s the only triple dip nina followed by strong Nino that we have record of, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, Chambana said: I hate to take the lazy man approach but shouldn’t 1957-1958 be a top analog? Triple dip La Niña, followed with a strong El Niño, obviously no analogs are the same, but it’s the only triple dip nina followed by strong Nino that we have record of, right? Its one of them, yeah. Other analogs I like include 72-73 and 91-92. But we have to adjust these analogs to a new climate base state. I will do so for my next winter outlook, and show how I did it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 For the last several years, we've had remarkable tendencies locally for cold / hot periods to coincide with the opposite trend below the surface. Rapid cooling below the surface from a high-level heat almost always coincides with a very hot month here. But the opposite holds true as well. We had very cold Nov/Mar periods locally with the rapid warming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 We did have some westerly wind anomalies working into the Dateline in recent days, but overall, the MJO signal on these Euro Weekly plots continues to weaken when looking ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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